No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach? | Page 7 | The Boneyard

No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

auror said:
This is correcting itself. On Bracket Matrix down to 1 seedline difference (Marquette down to a 7).
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I think Xavier defeats Marquette in on Thursday in the 4/5 game.
 
gtcam said:
win the NBE tournament and hope for 6 pray for a 5
lose Friday and hope for 8 and pray for 7
lose Thursday hope for 9 and pray its not a 10
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You had me until the last line. I think a 10 seed is significantly better than a 9 because I don't think there is a lot of difference between a 7 or 8 seed but there could be a huge difference between the first or second seeds if we're fortunate enough to make the second round. Plus, for TV ratings, there is no way the networks don't set up the two time defending champs to potentially play Duke or Auburn in the second round.
 
Just want to bring up a point I haven’t seen mentioned yet (apologies if it has). But I recall one year the committee saying it takes injuries as a factor when evaluating and seeding the bracket. That being said, I don’t believe the metrics take injuries to key players into consideration, but I could be wrong on that. If that’s the case, I feel like McNeeley missing those 8 or 9 games could be a huge swing factor for the committee in bumping us up to the 6 or 7 line seeing as that’s the team we are bringing to the tournament (barring any injuries in the BET).

Let’s hope and maybe that’s what gets us off the 8/9 line.
 
RayRay said:
Just want to bring up a point I haven’t seen mentioned yet (apologies if it has). But I recall one year the committee saying it takes injuries as a factor when evaluating and seeding the bracket. That being said, I don’t believe the metrics take injuries to key players into consideration, but I could be wrong on that. If that’s the case, I feel like McNeeley missing those 8 or 9 games could be a huge swing factor for the committee in bumping us up to the 6 or 7 line seeing as that’s the team we are bringing to the tournament (barring any injuries in the BET).

Let’s hope and maybe that’s what gets us off the 8/9 line.
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I think they meant injuries entering the NCAA Tournament. Like when they dropped Cincinnati down some when Kenyon Martin got hurt in the conference tournament. So they're seeding the team that is entering the NCAA Tournament.
 
ctbro1999 said:
Wouldn't shock me. According to Torvik, they've been the best team in the BE the last month.
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Amazing how playing the bad teams makes you look better isn’t it?

Similar to this Duke team - I know the computers account for competition but I honestly don’t think they do enough.
 
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Xavier is in with a win against Marquette. Probably an 11 seed.

For us a win vs Villanova might move the needle a tiny bit as other teams in other conferences will be in play and might loosen the log jam at 8/9.

A win vs Creighton is likely needed for a 7.

24 wins would be nice but I believe we will get a 7 and I dont follow Lunardi’s bracketology as he is usually not all that accurate.
 
6Nattys4Us said:
Xavier is in with a win against Marquette. Probably an 11 seed.

For us a win vs Villanova might move the needle a tiny bit as other teams in other conferences will be in play and might loosen the log jam at 8/9.

A win vs Creighton is likely needed for a 7.

24 wins would be nice but I believe we will get a 7 and I dont follow Lunardi’s bracketology as he is usually not all that accurate.
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It's not just Lunardi who has them on the 8/9 line.
 
BFieldHusky said:
It's not just Lunardi who has them on the 8/9 line.
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Lunardi, DeCourcy, and Palm all have us as an 8. But I think that if we win our first game in the BET, we're a 7.

The reason I think that is not because I think the committee likes UConn (quite the opposite, actually). The reason is because they'll want to protect a #1 seed from that matchup prior to making the Sweet 16...
 
BFieldHusky said:
You do realize we have also played St. Johns twice, Creighton and Marquette in the last month, right?
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I’m talking about Xavier - their schedule was front loaded, they’ve played the BE dregs over the last month. And the BE dregs are really bad.
 
UConnDan97 said:
Lunardi, DeCourcy, and Palm all have us as an 8. But I think that if we win our first game in the BET, we're a 7.

The reason I think that is not because I think the committee likes UConn (quite the opposite, actually). The reason is because they'll want to protect a #1 seed from that matchup prior to making the Sweet 16...
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If we only win one in the BET it means we go 1-1, it’s not like we are going 1-0. Net neutral, seed remains same. We need to win 2 to move a line. 2-1 may give us a chance, certainly not a slam dunk.
 
RuffRuff said:
If we only win one in the BET it means we go 1-1, it’s not like we are going 1-0. Net neutral, seed remains same. We need to win 2 to move a line. 2-1 may give us a chance, certainly not a slam dunk.
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I understand that. What I'm saying is that 1-1 will get us on the 7-line. If we win the tournament, I expect a 6 seed, with an outside chance at a 5 seed...
 
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RuffRuff said:
Amazing how playing the bad teams makes you look better isn’t it?
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I mean they did pound Creighton by 22 during their current streak, and beat Seton Hall in NJ, something we failed to do.
 
UConnDan97 said:
I understand that. What I'm saying is that 1-1 will get us on the 7-line. If we win the tournament, I expect a 6 seed, with an outside chance at a 5 seed...
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I'm generally as optimistic as anyone on this board, but there is no shot at a 5, virtually no shot at a 6, and we likely need to win the BET for a 7. Our metrics are not great right now when put head to head with anyone on the 7 line let alone a 5 or 6
 
navery12 said:
I'm generally as optimistic as anyone on this board, but there is no shot at a 5, virtually no shot at a 6, and we likely need to win the BET for a 7. Our metrics are not great right now when put head to head with anyone on the 7 line let alone a 5 or 6
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Torvik (I swear I'm not being paid to promote that site :D) has our seed as 7.8 currently. I guess you could take that as us being the last #7 seed? I think absolute highest seed is a 6, but more like a 7 if we win the BET. And we're probably an 8 currently.
If we were to go 1 and done in the BET, I can see us ending up as a 9.
 
ctbro1999 said:
I mean they did pound Creighton by 22 during their current streak, and beat Seton Hall in NJ, something we failed to do.
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Yeah they did get that one which was the big one for them. Other than that game, their last 9 games have been the bottom feeders with their only other decent matchup (@Nova) they lost by 12.

I honestly don’t see much value in beating teams 7-11 in the BET- they’re horrible.
 
ctbro1999 said:
Torvik (I swear I'm not being paid to promote that site :D) has our seed as 7.8 currently. I guess you could take that as us being the last #7 seed? I think absolute highest seed is a 6, but more like a 7 if we win the BET. And we're probably an 8 currently.
If we were to go 1 and done in the BET, I can see us ending up as a 9.
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That 7.8 puts us as the 2nd 8 seed currently on Torvik
 
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ctbro1999 said:
Torvik (I swear I'm not being paid to promote that site :D) has our seed as 7.8 currently. I guess you could take that as us being the last #7 seed? I think absolute highest seed is a 6, but more like a 7 if we win the BET. And we're probably an 8 currently.
If we were to go 1 and done in the BET, I can see us ending up as a 9.
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If you want to take into account the human factor just look at bracket matrix. We’re the 3rd 8, which sounds about right when you marry up to the metrics. That means we have to jump 3 teams to get to 7, 7 to get to 6. 1-1 is not jumping us to the 7 line. 3-0 and avoiding losses altogether could be impactful enough to make a mark.
 
navery12 said:
I'm generally as optimistic as anyone on this board, but there is no shot at a 5, virtually no shot at a 6, and we likely need to win the BET for a 7. Our metrics are not great right now when put head to head with anyone on the 7 line let alone a 5 or 6
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I guess we'll see, but that's an additional 2 Quad 1 wins, with the third game (presumably Nova) just outside of that. Again, it won't be for any love of UConn, but rather, a protection of the 1-seeds and 2-seeds if possible...
 
UConnDan97 said:
I guess we'll see, but that's an additional 2 Quad 1 wins, with the third game (presumably Nova) just outside of that. Again, it won't be for any love of UConn, but rather, a protection of the 1-seeds and 2-seeds if possible...
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Do we really think the committee is going to be focused on protecting the 1 and 2 seeds as if we are some bubbling juggernaut ready to ruin brackets and seed us because of that? Cmon. They don’t care about that. They will seed appropriately according to resumes.
 
UConnDan97 said:
Lunardi, DeCourcy, and Palm all have us as an 8. But I think that if we win our first game in the BET, we're a 7.

The reason I think that is not because I think the committee likes UConn (quite the opposite, actually). The reason is because they'll want to protect a #1 seed from that matchup prior to making the Sweet 16...
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I think we need to win 2 to think about a 7.
 
I really want to see is end up a 7 or better but I think the committee is in love with the idea of a duke uconn second round matchup in Carolina. Hopefully I’m wrong there
 
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UConnDan97 said:
I guess we'll see, but that's an additional 2 Quad 1 wins, with the third game (presumably Nova) just outside of that. Again, it won't be for any love of UConn, but rather, a protection of the 1-seeds and 2-seeds if possible...
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I think the missing piece in that analysis is that we're chasing other P5 teams who are also presumably getting additional Q1 wins.

The only way I see us getting above the 7 line is if we're surrounded by a bunch of SEC/B10 teams and they need to shift teams off the S-Curve to avoid repeat matchups
 
RuffRuff said:
Do we really think the committee is going to be focused on protecting the 1 and 2 seeds as if we are some bubbling juggernaut ready to ruin brackets and seed us because of that? Cmon. They don’t care about that. They will seed appropriately according to resumes.
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I'm not making the argument on reputation. I'm making it on a 25-9 record with a 7-5 quad 1 / 8-3 quad 2 record. But again, we'll see what happens with the committee. First thing is first: we've gotta win the games...
 
KemGiffeyJr said:
I really want to see is end up a 7 or better but I think the committee is in love with the idea of a duke uconn second round matchup in Carolina. Hopefully I’m wrong there
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Every bracket the past 2 weeks I've seen has had us in Raleigh as the 8 or 9 seed opposite Duke, including The Athletic's most recent bracket this morning. It seems like we'll need to win the BET just to avoid a potential Duke matchup in the 2nd round.
 
ctbro1999 said:
Every bracket the past 2 weeks I've seen has had us in Raleigh as the 8 or 9 seed opposite Duke, including The Athletic's most recent bracket this morning. It seems like we'll need to win the BET just to avoid a potential Duke matchup in the 2nd round.
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Would love to avoid that but would be good theater if it did happen. We still have to beat a 9 seed to get there, which is by no means a slam dunk with this team.

As has been mentioned, still one game at a time. Let’s see what this team is made of this week. Would love to see a hungry Xavier team knock off StJ in the quarters!
 
navery12 said:
I think the missing piece in that analysis is that we're chasing other P5 teams who are also presumably getting additional Q1 wins.

The only way I see us getting above the 7 line is if we're surrounded by a bunch of SEC/B10 teams and they need to shift teams off the S-Curve to avoid repeat matchups
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Correct. And that's exactly who we're surrounded by in the NET on our way to #24 (the final 6-seed). Three B1G teams (Michigan, UCLA, Oregon), two SEC teams (Georgia, Ole Miss), and just directly above us is a Baylor team that we beat head-to-head. Additionally, one of the teams above us is Marquette, who would necessarily take a loss earlier than us if we win the conference tourney.

That's my math. Let's see how it plays out...
 
KemGiffeyJr said:
I really want to see is end up a 7 or better but I think the committee is in love with the idea of a duke uconn second round matchup in Carolina. Hopefully I’m wrong there
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You’re not. The committee will love that potential matchup with a Duke advantage more than protecting a 1 seed from a potentially killer round of 32 game.
 
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