No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

[navery12]

So you're saying UConn would be a 6 seed without that loss? I don't believe that. It was definitely a very bad loss, I still have a bad taste in my mouth over that game, but 1 game would be that much of a penalty? Any opinions on this?

2 seed lines is aggressive, but it did drop us a full seedline. Bart Torvik has a tourney simulator, right now our expected seed is the 2nd 8 seed (W over Seton Hall, wins over Nova and Creighton, and then a loss to St John's in the BET final). With all of that staying the same and the Seton Hall result changing we move up to the 3rd 7 seed

 

[djct1999]

U say the McNeeley injury and some weird close losses buys them one seed line. Metrics say 7, they will be a 6. Etc.

Add in recency bias and our back to back titles is probably worth 1 seed line. I highly doubt w our resume they will have a 1 seed play us in the second round.

 

[auror]

We're a 4-Seed if we run the table and win the BE. If that happens, there is no way someone can say there are 16 teams better than us with all the quality wins & then a BE chip. Lots of outliers & circumstances with our bad losses.

So current last 4 seed on BracketMatrix is Michigan.

9-6 in Q1 (4-3 in Q1A)
5-2 in Q2. 14-8 in Q1+2
No bad losses.
Resume avg - 16
Predictive avg - 29

UConn currently
5-5 in Q1 (4-1 Q1A)
6-3 in Q2 , 11-8 in Q1+2
1 possibly 2 bad losses (Colorado on border)
Resume avg - 37
Predictive avg - 32

Most likely scenario is Seton Hall, Villanova, Creighton, St. John's all on neutral.
That would be Q2, Q1, Q1A wins.
So updated quads would be 7-5 (5-1 Q1A), 7-3 Q2, 14-8 Q1+2.
Have to assume our predictive would slide up into the mid to late 20s and resume would similarly improve to high 20s or low 30s.

I think that's a 5 or 6 seed resume based on current 5 seeds, but they'll all win/lose more games going forward, so may be more like a 6 or 7 seed if the 5s and 6s play decent to end the season. The bad losses will be weighing down our resume average and the predictive average isn't high enough to really offset it such that the committee would be forced to move us up.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I think it is nuts to put Uconn as an 8 right now. At some point, caliber of team also matters. They are clearly a Top 25 team. McNeeley injury should count for a seed line. If McNeeley was out, they get penalized a seed line.

 

[ctbro1999]

So you're saying UConn would be a 6 seed without that loss? I don't believe that. It was definitely a very bad loss, I still have a bad taste in my mouth over that game, but 1 game would be that much of a penalty? Any opinions on this?

I think it at least knocks us down 1.5 notches. So if we were the first 9 seed right now, we'd be the 3rd 7 seed without the loss.

My reasoning is we get knocked down a full seed line for the loss itself. Then we lose another 1/2 to full seed for losing the benefit of the doubt the committee might have given us for the 3 L's we suffered without McNeeley. Since we lost to Seton Hall with a healthy McNeeley, we don't get the benefit of the doubt for the 3 L's we took without him.

 

[Eric K]

Everyone has drunk the cool-aid after watching them do what all the metrics expected them to do: beat an underperforming Marquette team at home by single digits. This was not the Top 5 game at the XL like last year that resulted in a 30 point beatdown.

Historically, bad losses are like the ball-and-chain to the selection committee, more than good wins. Colorado, Seton Hall and to some extent Dayton are major clunkers. Probably have to run the table and make the BET Final and, at minimum, win or make it a very close loss (only if its the Johnnies) and watch some of others in a hunt for the 7 seed lose this weekend and early in their conf tourneys. Otherwise, 8-9 game it is.

 

[auror]

I think it is nuts to put Uconn as an 8 right now. At some point, caliber of team also matters. They are clearly a Top 25 team. McNeeley injury should count for a seed line. If McNeeley was out, they get penalized a seed line.

McNeeley played 39 minutes in their loss at Seton Hall and 35 in the 14 point loss at St. John's. All arguments for his absence were erased with those 2 results. By Torvik filtering we're the 52nd team since his return.

 

[giddyup]

McNeeley played 39 minutes in their loss at Seton Hall and 35 in the 14 point loss at St. John's. All arguments for his absence were erased with those 2 results. By Torvik filtering we're the 52nd team since his return.

I don’t know about Torvik but I smell some momentum and things seem to be clicking better (mostly). We will be the low seed nobody wants to play early.

 

[BFieldHusky]

We are an 8 seed in Lunardi/Decourcey/Palm brackets. The 7s in those brackets (bolded teams that are in more than one projection) are as follows:

Lunardi: Memphis, BYU, Ole Miss, Illinos
Decourcey: UCLA, BYU, Ole Miss, Kansas,
Palm: BYU, Kansas, UCLA, Louisville

 

[auror]

I don’t know about Torvik but I smell some momentum and things seem to be clicking better (mostly). We will be the low seed nobody wants to play early.

A lot of it is schedule-induced. 4 of the last 5 games were very winnable, and we won 4. We really only beat the spread by any significant margin in the Providence game, and they've lost 8 of 9 and just lost at home to DePaul.

We'll see if that turns into genuine psychological momentum regardless.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

If we weren’t a lock already we certainly are now. It’s been discussed on here a lot but what are our chances now at a 7 or even 6 seed? Another quad 1 win now gives us 5 for the season- so we have that going for us.

Assuming we beat SH this weekend, I still think if we make it to the BET final we are a 7, win it all and we have a good shot at a 6 seed.

If we win out to the BE finals we’re probably a 5
I still think we can win the BET why not ?
The Stage gets bigger and we got guys who have been there . An average shooting night for both teams and it’s game on against SJU.
I’m more concerned about getting to the finals .

 

[UCann]

I think we’re a lock 7 seed barring anything crazy. Forget the metrics. The committee knows that at our best and healthiest we are good. That’s where we are now. And as much as they will want to screw over UConn and the Big East, don’t forget why they do that - to benefit the other conferences. Well, it’s not a benefit to a top seed to have to play this team in round 2. It’s just that simple.

 

[Yukonrob]

Beat Seton Hall. How about crush their soul? We need to win that one by 35

How’s 31 ?

 

[jibsey]

Gonzaga is the 8th ranked team, 3-6 in Quad 1. We are 5-5. I can’t wait for the results of the tournament to tear up all if these rankings, Ken Pom and all the rest to prove their stupidity.

 

[7774]

I think we’re a lock 7 seed barring anything crazy. Forget the metrics. The committee knows that at our best and healthiest we are good. That’s where we are now. And as much as they will want to screw over UConn and the Big East, don’t forget why they do that - to benefit the other conferences. Well, it’s not a benefit to a top seed to have to play this team in round 2. It’s just that simple.

That’s like saying the committee would give us a 1 or 2 seed in 2023 because the committee knows at our best we’re one of the best. That’s objectivity true, but they’re not evaluating a teams‘s ceiling, they‘re evaluating the totality of a team‘s season.