No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

[GHSWolverines]

Avoid the 8 or 9 seed. Auburn, Duke, and Houston will probably be 1 seeds. It would tough to win in the 2nd round provided we win our first game.

 

[ddent68]

As someone else has said I think the biggest difference for us will be what other 7-8 teams do to finish the regular season. That’s assuming we take care of business Saturday and get to the final in the BET at least. If any of those teams implode we could swap one line up.

 

[connVA]

Prior to the Marquette win yesterday we were at net 34 and this AM we’re still at 34. Using lazy math, that’s still 8/9 range. As others have noted, the Hall and Colorado losses continue to be concrete shoes (for reference the Johnnies dropped two slots in the net after their Hall win this weekend, probably due in part to it being too close).

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

At this point, I am half expecting an 8 v 9 game between UConn and Kansas with the 1 seed being Duke in Raleigh, NC.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

7 is probably ceiling.

The committee has shown what they think of the Big East so I wouldn’t expect any favors. Add in the increased weighting that metrics play and It certainly doesn’t help our case. Those Colorado, SH, and to some extent Dayton really torpedoed the metrics to where they couldn’t be salvaged. Couple that with the back half of the Big East being trash, and not blowing out teams we should and it’s a recipe for disaster. We beat a top 20 team last night and It hardly moved the needle on Kenpom for example.

With a ~30 game sample. the results from one single game aren't going to affect KP rating unless you're a team that's tightly bunched with others that are separated by <1pt in NetRtg. It is what it is.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Any potential run comes to a diffused fast when you have to play one of the best 4 teams in the second round. The rosters are on those teams are just too good.

After watching Florida last night they feel a firm 1 seed and top 4 team. They are really good, would put them in front of Houston in terms of talent level and roster versatility. There are cracks after those top 4.

We are all entitled to our opinions

I personally don't see a lot of difference between how good the top 8-10 schools this year are when compared to two years ago. Yes, every matchup against a top two seed will be a challenge but even with that, we don't really know who will be seeded two or three in most cases. We could face Tennessee in the second round as a 2-7 matchup every bit as easily as that exact matchup being 3-6.

Let things fall as they will. We will achieve or fail on our performance, not where the selection committee places us.

 

[Palatine]

I like the part where we beat Seton Hall

 

[navery12]

We are all entitled to our opinions

I personally don't see a lot of difference between how good the top 8-10 schools this year are when compared to two years ago. Yes, every matchup against a top two seed will be a challenge but even with that, we don't really know who will be seeded two or three in most cases. We could face Tennessee in the second round as a 2-7 matchup every bit as easily as that exact matchup being 3-6.

Let things fall as they will. We will achieve or fail on our performance, not where the selection committee places us.

You're entitled to your opinion, but the facts don't back that up. Duke is the highest rated KenPom team in 26 years, and Auburn is also rated higher than the 2024 UConn team we all talk about dominating everyone in sight. The 1 seeds are going to be historically good this year

 

[ctbro1999]

At this point, I am half expecting an 8 v 9 game between UConn and Kansas with the 1 seed being Duke in Raleigh, NC.

That'll be a hot ticket!

 

[ctbro1999]

I like the part where we beat Seton Hall

We need a 30+ point destruction of Seton Hall. Exorcise those demons.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

You're entitled to your opinion, but the facts don't back that up. Duke is the highest rated KenPom team in 26 years, and Auburn is also rated higher than the 2024 UConn team we all talk about dominating everyone in sight. The 1 seeds are going to be historically good this year

I'm not sure that our fate this season is dependent on an algorithm.

Kenpom may have this season's Duke and Auburn ahead of our team from last season but in all candor, if our '24 tournament team played either 100 times, maybe five games would still be close in the last three minutes. Last years team would have handled either at a level similar to how we handled handled pretty much everyone we faced over the past two tournaments.

Yes, this year's team has flaws. This years team has holes and weaknesses we haven't seen in a while and if I were a betting man I wouldn't put much on us getting through the sub-regionals. What I see at the moment is that we are almost fully locked in to either a seven seed or a six seed and many are driving themselves nuts out of fear of a matchup that may never happen.

Getting back to Kenpom: over the past decade, what percentage of teams finished in the tournament where Kenpom would have predicted them finishing?