No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

[GHSWolverines]

Avoid the 8 or 9 seed. Auburn, Duke, and Houston will probably be 1 seeds. It would tough to win in the 2nd round provided we win our first game.

 

[ddent68]

As someone else has said I think the biggest difference for us will be what other 7-8 teams do to finish the regular season. That’s assuming we take care of business Saturday and get to the final in the BET at least. If any of those teams implode we could swap one line up.

 

[connVA]

Prior to the Marquette win yesterday we were at net 34 and this AM we’re still at 34. Using lazy math, that’s still 8/9 range. As others have noted, the Hall and Colorado losses continue to be concrete shoes (for reference the Johnnies dropped two slots in the net after their Hall win this weekend, probably due in part to it being too close).

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

At this point, I am half expecting an 8 v 9 game between UConn and Kansas with the 1 seed being Duke in Raleigh, NC.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

7 is probably ceiling.

The committee has shown what they think of the Big East so I wouldn’t expect any favors. Add in the increased weighting that metrics play and It certainly doesn’t help our case. Those Colorado, SH, and to some extent Dayton really torpedoed the metrics to where they couldn’t be salvaged. Couple that with the back half of the Big East being trash, and not blowing out teams we should and it’s a recipe for disaster. We beat a top 20 team last night and It hardly moved the needle on Kenpom for example.

With a ~30 game sample. the results from one single game aren't going to affect KP rating unless you're a team that's tightly bunched with others that are separated by <1pt in NetRtg. It is what it is.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Any potential run comes to a diffused fast when you have to play one of the best 4 teams in the second round. The rosters are on those teams are just too good.

After watching Florida last night they feel a firm 1 seed and top 4 team. They are really good, would put them in front of Houston in terms of talent level and roster versatility. There are cracks after those top 4.

We are all entitled to our opinions

I personally don't see a lot of difference between how good the top 8-10 schools this year are when compared to two years ago. Yes, every matchup against a top two seed will be a challenge but even with that, we don't really know who will be seeded two or three in most cases. We could face Tennessee in the second round as a 2-7 matchup every bit as easily as that exact matchup being 3-6.

Let things fall as they will. We will achieve or fail on our performance, not where the selection committee places us.

 

[Palatine]

I like the part where we beat Seton Hall

 

[navery12]

We are all entitled to our opinions

I personally don't see a lot of difference between how good the top 8-10 schools this year are when compared to two years ago. Yes, every matchup against a top two seed will be a challenge but even with that, we don't really know who will be seeded two or three in most cases. We could face Tennessee in the second round as a 2-7 matchup every bit as easily as that exact matchup being 3-6.

Let things fall as they will. We will achieve or fail on our performance, not where the selection committee places us.

You're entitled to your opinion, but the facts don't back that up. Duke is the highest rated KenPom team in 26 years, and Auburn is also rated higher than the 2024 UConn team we all talk about dominating everyone in sight. The 1 seeds are going to be historically good this year

 

[ctbro1999]

At this point, I am half expecting an 8 v 9 game between UConn and Kansas with the 1 seed being Duke in Raleigh, NC.

That'll be a hot ticket!

 

[ctbro1999]

I like the part where we beat Seton Hall

We need a 30+ point destruction of Seton Hall. Exorcise those demons.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

You're entitled to your opinion, but the facts don't back that up. Duke is the highest rated KenPom team in 26 years, and Auburn is also rated higher than the 2024 UConn team we all talk about dominating everyone in sight. The 1 seeds are going to be historically good this year

I'm not sure that our fate this season is dependent on an algorithm.

Kenpom may have this season's Duke and Auburn ahead of our team from last season but in all candor, if our '24 tournament team played either 100 times, maybe five games would still be close in the last three minutes. Last years team would have handled either at a level similar to how we handled handled pretty much everyone we faced over the past two tournaments.

Yes, this year's team has flaws. This years team has holes and weaknesses we haven't seen in a while and if I were a betting man I wouldn't put much on us getting through the sub-regionals. What I see at the moment is that we are almost fully locked in to either a seven seed or a six seed and many are driving themselves nuts out of fear of a matchup that may never happen.

Getting back to Kenpom: over the past decade, what percentage of teams finished in the tournament where Kenpom would have predicted them finishing?

 

[navery12]

I'm not sure that our fate this season is dependent on an algorithm.

Kenpom may have this season's Duke and Auburn ahead of our team from last season but in all candor, if our '24 tournament team played either 100 times, maybe five games would still be close in the last three minutes. Last years team would have handled either at a level similar to how we handled handled pretty much everyone we faced over the past two tournaments.

Yes, this year's team has flaws. This years team has holes and weaknesses we haven't seen in a while and if I were a betting man I wouldn't put much on us getting through the sub-regionals. What I see at the moment is that we are almost fully locked in to either a seven seed or a six seed and many are driving themselves nuts out of fear of a matchup that may never happen.

Getting back to Kenpom: over the past decade, what percentage of teams finished in the tournament where Kenpom would have predicted them finishing?

It's not dependent on an algorithm, the point is that the teams we'd be lined up to play as an 8/9 seed are SIGNIFICANTLY better than as a 6 or a 7 seed. Maybe we still beat one of the 1 seeds, I'll think we have a chance against anyone, but there is a huge difference.

Right now Duke would be favored by 13 points against UConn on a neutral court, Auburn by 12, but someone like Tennessee or Arizona it drops to 6 points. Obviously it's all conjecture and nothing is written in stone, but we will have a much better chance of beating a 2 seed than a 1 seed.

As for your KenPom question, that would take hours of research on thousands of teams to answer so I have no idea. But in the last 10 years the national champion has been KenPom #1 five times, #2 once, and #3 three times, and no champion in 2020. So it's not like teams are defying the odds regularly

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Yes, we would be double digit underdogs against Auburn or Duke; whether that game is played in the second round or later.

One thing that has me less concerned than many here is that I don't see a whole lot of difference between Auburn, Florida or Tennessee and the latter two will most likely be two seeds. I'm not sure that there would be so much of an advantage in facing Florida in a 2-7 matchup than facing Auburn in a 1-8 matchup.

Duke is tremendously talented, there is no denying that. They also are playing in the worst version of the ACC ever, which may be inflating their Kenpom numbers. They next best ACC teams, Louisville and Clemson, wouldn't be able to finish. 500 in conference if they had to play in any version of a pre-covid ACC (inception to 2020).

The ACC being historically putrid also gave the SEC more gravitas this season than they likely warranted as winning 11 of 12 against this ACC may not have been such a monumental task, yet it boosted the SEC in everyone's eyes and as they have been only playing other SEC schools, for most of the remainder of the season, the value won't normalize over time.

I also believe that shy of our regressing severely, we will be either a seven or a six seed when they announce the tournament bracket, so who we play (if we survive the first round) will be one of a dozen teams that will be basically indistinguishable come tournament time.

The advantages that we will have once the tournament begins will be the refs will call fouls when we are mugged and the opponent won't be familiar with our offense. The disadvantages will be many, primarily that we aren't close to the two most recent tournament teams we've had.

Regardless, I'm not going to waste any time worrying about what seed they give us.

 

[superjohn]

You're entitled to your opinion, but the facts don't back that up. Duke is the highest rated KenPom team in 26 years, and Auburn is also rated higher than the 2024 UConn team we all talk about dominating everyone in sight. The 1 seeds are going to be historically good this year

We have eyeballs, they aren't as good as last year's team.

 

[navery12]

We have eyeballs, they aren't as good as last year's team.

I agree, but that's not my point. My point is that they're much better than the teams on the 2 line. Only brought up last year's team as a reference for how highly Auburn is viewed

 

[Iluvsuebird]

My only take with this 'seeding' topic is this: If we are an 8 or 9 seed, I bet you that not one of those top seeds would want to play us in that second game. I am not saying we would or should be favorites. We would not and should not. But that matchup would be a sassy matchup in the second game. Oh, and I was paying attention last night. 8 turnovers. Played with controlled aggression. Matched their intensity. That game last night tells me that we have it in us to play against the so called top seeds that press. Now, i want to see consistency. I want to blow SH out of the arena on Saturday. I want to make a nice run in the BET, not because of seeds, but because I believe this team needs to see itself holding a trophy. They need to visualize themselves as champs of something. I am still high on the ceiling!

 

[shizzle787]

I think if we beat Seton Hall, then we are an 8. A deep run in the Big East tournament with a loss in the final I believe would put us in a 7 seed. If we win the Big East tournament, then I think we’d be a 6 seed.

This is what I am thinking too. Beating Seton Hall and Nova isn’t impressive. It keeps us on the 8 line. Beating Creighton gets us a 7. Beating St. John’s gets us a six.

 

[shizzle787]

For rooting interests, this is what we need this weekend:
UConn
St. John’s
Creighton
Xavier

If those four win and Xavier beats Marquette in the BET QF, we get five bids. We then need the combo of Nova, Creighton, and St. John’s victories to get a 6 seed.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

My only take with this 'seeding' topic is this: If we are an 8 or 9 seed, I bet you that not one of those top seeds would want to play us in that second game.

That's great but that's fandom talking. Duke hypothetically "not wanting to play us" - even if it was true - doesn't change the fact that most people would rather play Iowa State or Michigan State to get to the Sweet Sixteen.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

At this point, I am half expecting an 8 v 9 game between UConn and Kansas with the 1 seed being Duke in Raleigh, NC.

You're on the right track. But Kansas has played Duke this year so it wouldn't happen

 

[6Nattys4Us]

Ideally we want a 6 which is only possible if we win the BET. Not a stretch to be 25-9 and a 6 seed with quality wins vs Marquette, St. John's, Creighton, Gonzaga, Baylor, Texas. Not saying the best of the best but a 6 is doable if we win out. Besides Kansas is somehow pegged as a 6 in the latest Bracketology which is egregiously high for them.

With Duke, there's no reason for them not wanting to play us in the 2nd round - it's in Raleigh. I can only see "don't want to plays us" if we are a 6 or 7 and that pushes to the regional in Newark.

Other first/second round places to play favors Providence for us at the AMP or Seattle if we want Stewart to have family there.

 

[TheHorde]

This is what I am thinking too. Beating Seton Hall and Nova isn’t impressive. It keeps us on the 8 line. Beating Creighton gets us a 7. Beating St. John’s gets us a six.

Getting a 6 or a 7 would be huge to avoid the 1 seed until the regional final. This team would have a puncher’s chance of beating many 2 or 3 seeds this year. And if a 1 gets upset before the regional final, who knows?

 

[nycscooby]

One thing we know for sure is that the BE will get screwed both in number of invites and seeding, you can take that to the bank!

I don’t care. The team was locked in on the D and we didn’t foul and we kept the TOs under control. 3P defense looks good on paper but I think that is more of a Marquette shooting problem than our D but to me, the team is playing better on that side of the court (D rebounding could be better but hey).

We look better!