No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach? | Page 3 | The Boneyard

No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

I think you guys are too metrics driven. They don’t strictly follow the S Curve on these sites. It is in flux. They win Big East Tourney they’ll be a 5 or the first 6. They can be a 10 if they lost Saturday and in first round.

Right now, I’d say a 7 and trending up. They don’t profile like an 8/9 seed. 5 Quad 1 wins is a lot.
 
We're a 4-Seed if we run the table and win the BE. If that happens, there is no way someone can say there are 16 teams better than us with all the quality wins & then a BE chip. Lots of outliers & circumstances with our bad losses.
 
Gonzaga 8 in Kem Pom. They are NTo a 2 seed.

Kentucky is 20-10 and is 13 in net, St John’s is 19 in net.

St John’s will be seeded higher than Zags and Kentucky.

NCAA committee uses these metrics a lot, but there is definitely commons sense that comes into this. St John’s and UConn are hurt by the big east’s relative soft bottom. I would say KenPom and Net matter more on the bubble.
 
JohnFSilver said:
I think you guys are too metrics driven. They don’t strictly follow the S Curve on these sites. It is in flux. They win Big East Tourney they’ll be a 5 or the first 6. They can be a 10 if they lost Saturday and in first round.

Right now, I’d say a 7 and trending up. They don’t profile like an 8/9 seed. 5 Quad 1 wins is a lot.
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The issue is that were behind these teams in all aspects of our resume, it's not just the metrics. We're going to have less good wins, more bad losses, worse resume metrics and worse predictive metrics. I think we can get up to a 7, but a 6 is going to take a bunch of teams collapsing in conference tournaments
 
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JohnFSilver said:
I think you guys are too metrics driven. They don’t strictly follow the S Curve on these sites. It is in flux. They win Big East Tourney they’ll be a 5 or the first 6. They can be a 10 if they lost Saturday and in first round.

Right now, I’d say a 7 and trending up. They don’t profile like an 8/9 seed. 5 Quad 1 wins is a lot.
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Many of the other projected 8-9 seeds + have as many Quad 5 wins or more. Baylor is a projected 10 seed and has 6. We are at a disadvantage in the BE. Arkansas is on the bubble and has 5.

Right now we're an 8 with a max of 7 and a holy grail max of 6 if we win all the way through and things fall perfectly.
 
HuskyHawk said:
We are dangerous.

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Is this saying we are dangerous or just that we underachieved?

I feel like I have a decent handle on the danger upside of this team against the field at this point and it's highly dependent on multiple factors coming together at once, that of which hasn't happened yet this season. Is it possible? Sure why not. Hope is what makes fans bubble. Is Hurley that masterful that he stokes it on the very back end of the season? Perhaps we'll see. That's why they play the games.
 
JB75 said:
I know the committee is a bunch of fools, but I really can’t believe you got a team like Uconn coming off back to back’s and riding a 5 to 6 game winning streak if we finish 24 and 10 we’re not off the seven line ? geez that’s pretty harsh. I think we could be off the eight line if we destroy seton hall on Saturday definitely off the 8- line if we win our quarterfinal Thursday. I think most of this board is undervaluing Uconn by one seed -we win the big east we’re gonna be a five seed. Lose in finals - 6 seed/ lose in semis a 7/ lose in quarters the weakest 7 or 8—- Only way we see a nine or 10 is if we lose to seton hall and lose in the quarters. I think as long as we handle business Saturday and win our first game Thursday, we are no worse than a 7 seed.
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U say the McNeeley injury and some weird close losses buys them one seed line. Metrics say 7, they will be a 6. Etc.
 
RuffRuff said:
Let me ask you something, how many x have you watched Duke, Auburn, Florida and Houston this year?
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Duke, parts four or five games, Houston about the same. Auburn a bit more and Florida a little more still. From what I've seen Florida is the best suited to make a long tournament run while Houston, due to their relentless defense, would be the team we'd have the most difficulty with (although all four are clearly better than we are).
 
RuffRuff said:
No, we are looking to avoid the 1 line. We won't be seeing a 6th or 7th seed unless we make the regionals so not sure what the point is there.
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Some of us are looking to avoid the 1 line. Personally I'll take whatever they give us.
 
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Assuming a win this weekend, we need to make the BE final to get to a 7, and if we win it we might climb to a 6. But I think 7 is reasonably our ceiling.
 
RuffRuff said:
There is so much data these days, which also favor the B12/SEC, my guess is that this committee will be very chalky with what the algorithms say because if there is one thing fans can't argue, it's data.

The Gonzaga glitch is a wild one though.

I repeat, we don't want to see a 1 seed anytime too early this year. You watch Florida and they can run 3 athletic and skilled bigs out there. Condon was ridiculous last night. They have a really good shot making PG and then 2 other physical guards that are really versatile. There is something to be learned from Golden's roster build. Duke is massive, Auburn is old men. Houston is tough and hard nosed, but would be the least imposing. You can flex all you want, would rather them have a down night against some hot shooting team and miss them.

Post above - we are 85% through the season come Sunday. The current projections are really firm, so a BIG part of the equation is also the teams in the 4-7 slots in front of us losing. The Ole Miss game last night sucked.
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None of these teams are behemoths. If UConn is clicking none of them want to see the Huskies in the second round.

 
FfldCntyFan said:
Duke, parts four or five games, Houston about the same. Auburn a bit more and Florida a little more still. From what I've seen Florida is the best suited to make a long tournament run while Houston, due to their relentless defense, would be the team we'd have the most difficulty with (although all four are clearly better than we are).
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I really, really like Florida. They can throw so much at you that is hard to prepare for. Golden really knows what he's doing, may be the best strategist of the 1 seed coaches (Sampson the best defensive motivator). You could argue they have 3 of the best wins of the year at Bama, at Auburn and beating Tenn by 30.

Other teams I like quite a bit - Maryland & Memphis.
 
Hi-Low said:
Jerry Palm is officially a clown...updated Bracketology this morning still has Marquette as a 5 seed, Creighton as a 8 seed & UConn still a 9 seed.

I'll chalk it up to complete laziness. Of the 3 teams UConn has the best Q1 & Q2 combined at 12-8, Marq 11-8 & Creighton 10-9. Marquette is ahead of UConn, but UConn has passed Creighton at this point. UConn should be an 8 seed or better on all brackets right now.

www.cbssports.com

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I think that's from yesterday. Updated today he has UConn the 2nd 8 seed. So within sniffing distance of a 7 seed.

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CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.
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HooperScooper said:
I think that's from yesterday. Updated today he has UConn the 2nd 8 seed. So within sniffing distance of a 7 seed.

www.cbssports.com

2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

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I can smell it, the 7 line smells like the old gym floor at the Fieldhouse blended with mushroom & onion DP Dough.

Based on this, of the next 5-6 teams under us playing this weekend, we'd love a Kansas loss at home to Zona. Everyone else is playing crud. Creighton we can get in the tourney.

I'll take Houston of all the 1s if we are stuck there. Ideally want a 2 playing either Big10 team. I'll also take Drake to slow Marquette into a delirium and win that 12/5.
 
HooperScooper said:
I think that's from yesterday. Updated today he has UConn the 2nd 8 seed. So within sniffing distance of a 7 seed.

www.cbssports.com

2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
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That's Palm's 2nd update today, the one I posted was also dated 3/6....he must have heard me and fixed his errors ;)
 
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RuffRuff said:
They’re a 4 at this point, but have looked really meh. Makes me wonder if TJ has a foot out.
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I am little slow and one or two weeks back when they were a #2. That's right they lost to BYU, Houston, and Ok. State.

As for TJ, I know he has been rumored for the IU job, do you think he will take it? IU is still a big brand, but that is a high pressure cooker job inside of a fishbowl.
 
gsmooth said:
I am little slow and one or two weeks back when they were a #2. That's right they lost to BYU, Houston, and Ok. State.

As for TJ, I know he has been rumored for the IU job, do you think he will take it? IU is still a big brand, but that is a high pressure cooker job inside of a fishbowl.
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Hard to know - I’d think if he’s offered he takes. ISU is an ok job and I know he has roots there, but hard to recruit there and he won’t get nearly the NIL. As a young guy that’s really peaked, this feels like a chance he couldn’t give up if it came his way.
 
Hi-Low said:
That's Palm's 2nd update today, the one I posted was also dated 3/6....he must have heard me and fixed his errors ;)
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Funny he updates it more than once a day. It's not like there were any games to take into account between this morning and this afternoon.
 
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Watching Michigan St Vs Iowa and these teams are SLOW
 
RuffRuff said:
Is this saying we are dangerous or just that we underachieved?

I feel like I have a decent handle on the danger upside of this team against the field at this point and it's highly dependent on multiple factors coming together at once, that of which hasn't happened yet this season. Is it possible? Sure why not. Hope is what makes fans bubble. Is Hurley that masterful that he stokes it on the very back end of the season? Perhaps we'll see. That's why they play the games.
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Evan says that teams that are talented and underachieved tend to do play closer to their talent in the tournament. I think our 2023 team is an example. We’d probably be expected to be more dangerous than our seed suggests.
 
Question for ratings/seedings gurus for our Tournament resume.. Does the margin of victory vs Seton Hall on Sat move the needle at all for us? Say a 25 pt margin W vs a 5 pt margin W? Or does Seton Hall's lowly BE status diminish any impact of a high margin W even though they've beaten us once? Asking to see if we're looking for anything on Sat other than just a W or that our remaining resume leverage will come out of our BET opponents resume status and our BET performance. Thx
 
Last edited:
Umami Zen said:
Question for ratings/seedings gurus for our Tournament resume.. Does the margin of victory vs Seton Hall on Sat move the needle at all for us? Say a 25 pt margin W vs a 5 pt margin W? Or does Seton Hall's lowly BE status diminish any impact of a high margin W even though they've beaten us once? Asking to see if we're looking for anything on Sat other than just a W or that our remaining resume leverage will come out of our BET opponents resume status and our BET performance. Thx
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Probably not.

Example - kenpom metrics suggest an 18 point win. Even a massive blowout probably doesn't move the needle that much.

Anything close or worse is more impactful.
 
pepband99 said:
Probably not.

Example - kenpom metrics suggest an 18 point win. Even a massive blowout probably doesn't move the needle that much.

Anything close or worse is more impactful.
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Confirms what I thought
 
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