No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

[businesslawyer]

You're entitled to your opinion, but the facts don't back that up. Duke is the highest rated KenPom team in 26 years, and Auburn is also rated higher than the 2024 UConn team we all talk about dominating everyone in sight. The 1 seeds are going to be historically good this year

No, the one seeds will have finished the regular season with historically good computer profiles. Not nearly the same thing as calling them "historically good." The tournament will show how historically good teams are.

 

[Ports21]

At this point, I am half expecting an 8 v 9 game between UConn and Kansas with the 1 seed being Duke in Raleigh, NC.

They won't need to boost ticket sales in Raleigh they'll send us and Kansas to like Houston's region.

 

[Tmac4468]

No.

 

[JB75]

I know the committee is a bunch of fools, but I really can’t believe you got a team like Uconn coming off back to back’s and riding a 5 to 6 game winning streak if we finish 24 and 10 we’re not off the seven line ? geez that’s pretty harsh. I think we could be off the eight line if we destroy seton hall on Saturday definitely off the 8- line if we win our quarterfinal Thursday. I think most of this board is undervaluing Uconn by one seed -we win the big east we’re gonna be a five seed. Lose in finals - 6 seed/ lose in semis a 7/ lose in quarters the weakest 7 or 8—- Only way we see a nine or 10 is if we lose to seton hall and lose in the quarters. I think as long as we handle business Saturday and win our first game Thursday, we are no worse than a 7 seed.

 

[RuffRuff]

Just my gut feeling, but if anything I believe the committee will give UConn the benefit of the doubt and overseed them. I think it benefits the tournament, it benefits the top seeds, and us for the committee to place us on the 7 line vs 8. I don’t care how good Auburn and Duke are, neither wants to see UConn in the second round.

There is so much data these days, which also favor the B12/SEC, my guess is that this committee will be very chalky with what the algorithms say because if there is one thing fans can't argue, it's data.

The Gonzaga glitch is a wild one though.

I repeat, we don't want to see a 1 seed anytime too early this year. You watch Florida and they can run 3 athletic and skilled bigs out there. Condon was ridiculous last night. They have a really good shot making PG and then 2 other physical guards that are really versatile. There is something to be learned from Golden's roster build. Duke is massive, Auburn is old men. Houston is tough and hard nosed, but would be the least imposing. You can flex all you want, would rather them have a down night against some hot shooting team and miss them.

Post above - we are 85% through the season come Sunday. The current projections are really firm, so a BIG part of the equation is also the teams in the 4-7 slots in front of us losing. The Ole Miss game last night sucked.

 

[RuffRuff]

I'm not sure that our fate this season is dependent on an algorithm.

Kenpom may have this season's Duke and Auburn ahead of our team from last season but in all candor, if our '24 tournament team played either 100 times, maybe five games would still be close in the last three minutes. Last years team would have handled either at a level similar to how we handled handled pretty much everyone we faced over the past two tournaments.

Yes, this year's team has flaws. This years team has holes and weaknesses we haven't seen in a while and if I were a betting man I wouldn't put much on us getting through the sub-regionals. What I see at the moment is that we are almost fully locked in to either a seven seed or a six seed and many are driving themselves nuts out of fear of a matchup that may never happen.

Getting back to Kenpom: over the past decade, what percentage of teams finished in the tournament where Kenpom would have predicted them finishing?

Let me ask you something, how many x have you watched Duke, Auburn, Florida and Houston this year?

 

[bendm]

I won’t be confident in a 7 unless we get to the BET final. If we beat SJU I’ll hold my breath for a 6 since they’re a borderline top 5 team. Otherwise no way.

 

[djct1999]

Let me ask you something, how many x have you watched Duke, Auburn, Florida and Houston this year?

Data always inflates certain teams, certain conferences. We aren’t competing with the 1 line. Name one 6th or 7th seed that UConn wouldn’t beat right now. If this UConn team was in the Big 10 we would be a 5 seed at the very least.

 

[RuffRuff]

Data always inflates certain teams, certain conferences. We aren’t competing with the 1 line. Name one 6th or 7th seed that UConn wouldn’t beat right now.

No, we are looking to avoid the 1 line. We won't be seeing a 6th or 7th seed unless we make the regionals so not sure what the point is there.

 

[Inyatkin]

There is so much data these days, which also favor the B12/SEC, my guess is that this committee will be very chalky with what the algorithms say because if there is one thing fans can't argue, it's data.

The Gonzaga glitch is a wild one though.

Fans can and do argue data all the time. Constantly. As you noted one sentence later.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I think you guys are too metrics driven. They don’t strictly follow the S Curve on these sites. It is in flux. They win Big East Tourney they’ll be a 5 or the first 6. They can be a 10 if they lost Saturday and in first round.

Right now, I’d say a 7 and trending up. They don’t profile like an 8/9 seed. 5 Quad 1 wins is a lot.

 

[IndyLives]

We're a 4-Seed if we run the table and win the BE. If that happens, there is no way someone can say there are 16 teams better than us with all the quality wins & then a BE chip. Lots of outliers & circumstances with our bad losses.

 

[Inyatkin]

It was unique circumstances, but I'll note that no one had us as a 3 seed headed into the 2011 Big East tournament.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Gonzaga 8 in Kem Pom. They are NTo a 2 seed.

Kentucky is 20-10 and is 13 in net, St John’s is 19 in net.

St John’s will be seeded higher than Zags and Kentucky.

NCAA committee uses these metrics a lot, but there is definitely commons sense that comes into this. St John’s and UConn are hurt by the big east’s relative soft bottom. I would say KenPom and Net matter more on the bubble.

 

[Bazz4A]

We're a 4-Seed if we run the table and win the BE. If that happens, there is no way someone can say there are 16 teams better than us with all the quality wins & then a BE chip. Lots of outliers & circumstances with our bad losses.

0.0% chance this occurs

 

[navery12]

I think you guys are too metrics driven. They don’t strictly follow the S Curve on these sites. It is in flux. They win Big East Tourney they’ll be a 5 or the first 6. They can be a 10 if they lost Saturday and in first round.

Right now, I’d say a 7 and trending up. They don’t profile like an 8/9 seed. 5 Quad 1 wins is a lot.

The issue is that were behind these teams in all aspects of our resume, it's not just the metrics. We're going to have less good wins, more bad losses, worse resume metrics and worse predictive metrics. I think we can get up to a 7, but a 6 is going to take a bunch of teams collapsing in conference tournaments

 

[RuffRuff]

I think you guys are too metrics driven. They don’t strictly follow the S Curve on these sites. It is in flux. They win Big East Tourney they’ll be a 5 or the first 6. They can be a 10 if they lost Saturday and in first round.

Right now, I’d say a 7 and trending up. They don’t profile like an 8/9 seed. 5 Quad 1 wins is a lot.

Many of the other projected 8-9 seeds + have as many Quad 5 wins or more. Baylor is a projected 10 seed and has 6. We are at a disadvantage in the BE. Arkansas is on the bubble and has 5.

Right now we're an 8 with a max of 7 and a holy grail max of 6 if we win all the way through and things fall perfectly.

 

[HuskyHawk]

We are dangerous.

 

[RuffRuff]

We are dangerous.

Is this saying we are dangerous or just that we underachieved?

I feel like I have a decent handle on the danger upside of this team against the field at this point and it's highly dependent on multiple factors coming together at once, that of which hasn't happened yet this season. Is it possible? Sure why not. Hope is what makes fans bubble. Is Hurley that masterful that he stokes it on the very back end of the season? Perhaps we'll see. That's why they play the games.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I know the committee is a bunch of fools, but I really can’t believe you got a team like Uconn coming off back to back’s and riding a 5 to 6 game winning streak if we finish 24 and 10 we’re not off the seven line ? geez that’s pretty harsh. I think we could be off the eight line if we destroy seton hall on Saturday definitely off the 8- line if we win our quarterfinal Thursday. I think most of this board is undervaluing Uconn by one seed -we win the big east we’re gonna be a five seed. Lose in finals - 6 seed/ lose in semis a 7/ lose in quarters the weakest 7 or 8—- Only way we see a nine or 10 is if we lose to seton hall and lose in the quarters. I think as long as we handle business Saturday and win our first game Thursday, we are no worse than a 7 seed.

U say the McNeeley injury and some weird close losses buys them one seed line. Metrics say 7, they will be a 6. Etc.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Let me ask you something, how many x have you watched Duke, Auburn, Florida and Houston this year?

Duke, parts four or five games, Houston about the same. Auburn a bit more and Florida a little more still. From what I've seen Florida is the best suited to make a long tournament run while Houston, due to their relentless defense, would be the team we'd have the most difficulty with (although all four are clearly better than we are).

 

[FfldCntyFan]

No, we are looking to avoid the 1 line. We won't be seeing a 6th or 7th seed unless we make the regionals so not sure what the point is there.

Some of us are looking to avoid the 1 line. Personally I'll take whatever they give us.

 

[Excalibur]

Assuming a win this weekend, we need to make the BE final to get to a 7, and if we win it we might climb to a 6. But I think 7 is reasonably our ceiling.

 

[superjohn]

There is so much data these days, which also favor the B12/SEC, my guess is that this committee will be very chalky with what the algorithms say because if there is one thing fans can't argue, it's data.

The Gonzaga glitch is a wild one though.

I repeat, we don't want to see a 1 seed anytime too early this year. You watch Florida and they can run 3 athletic and skilled bigs out there. Condon was ridiculous last night. They have a really good shot making PG and then 2 other physical guards that are really versatile. There is something to be learned from Golden's roster build. Duke is massive, Auburn is old men. Houston is tough and hard nosed, but would be the least imposing. You can flex all you want, would rather them have a down night against some hot shooting team and miss them.

Post above - we are 85% through the season come Sunday. The current projections are really firm, so a BIG part of the equation is also the teams in the 4-7 slots in front of us losing. The Ole Miss game last night sucked.

None of these teams are behemoths. If UConn is clicking none of them want to see the Huskies in the second round.

 

[RuffRuff]

Duke, parts four or five games, Houston about the same. Auburn a bit more and Florida a little more still. From what I've seen Florida is the best suited to make a long tournament run while Houston, due to their relentless defense, would be the team we'd have the most difficulty with (although all four are clearly better than we are).

I really, really like Florida. They can throw so much at you that is hard to prepare for. Golden really knows what he's doing, may be the best strategist of the 1 seed coaches (Sampson the best defensive motivator). You could argue they have 3 of the best wins of the year at Bama, at Auburn and beating Tenn by 30.

Other teams I like quite a bit - Maryland & Memphis.