Its probably a bit of both
As far as number one, I would think it would be more so for coaches who use the portal like crazy that they risk that but if you recruit at a high level, you probably won't need to use the portal as much. Portal is a great tool to add a piece or two to shore up the gaps or even just to add some depth. In the case of a new coach walking into a rebuild, its even better for them.
But its interesting to see how coaches can navigate programs on the backbone of transfers. From a coaching perspective, you typically know more about what you are getting and what the athlete is capable of versus a HS recruit coming in. The downside is sometimes these transfers are limited to a year or two at most, and it becomes difficult to build continuity, develop a culture, and instill things that can take years to build verses a HS recruit where you can mold them for 4 years.
It has definitely become the new age of recruiting and has been a game changer for a lot of programs. Most notable in recent years was the addition of Chloe Jackson from LSU to Baylor which played a big role in their third national title. On the flip side, it has hurt many as well.