NCAA Tournament, week 1 of 3

[SJF]

The brackets would look significantly different if the top 16 seeds did not get to play on their home courts.

 

[npignatjr]

Because it’s only an issue when you’re bitter about not having a seat at the P5 table. Would you care to advocate about BE WBB and “P5 bias” if UConn hadn’t gotten passed over by the ACC again and again? Because I’m sure Geno would be using the same rhetoric as other P5 coaches if UConn was in one. But, I digress.

I my case no the anti P5 bias is not based on UConn, it is based on not giving teams with mediocre conference seasons entry into the tournament. As a real fan of the game I would rather see mid majors get in than p5 bottom feeders.

 

[jchusky]

does anyone feel there is much to be left desired from watching Louisville? I feel that game should not have been that close. Luckily for them they got the easiest bracket of anyone and probably still make the final 4, but there's no way I can see them beating or even competing vs SC/Stanford.

 

[SJF]

I my case no the anti P5 bias is not based on UConn, it is based on not giving teams with mediocre conference seasons entry into the tournament. As a real fan of the game I would rather see mid majors get in than p5 bottom feeders.

And the committee almost put Mizzou in! And left South Dakota out just because they lost to SDST in conference tourney.

 

[GoCardinal]

The problem with that is that it places too much emphasis on the regular season and not enough on the arc of the team‘s development. For example, Geno uses the regular season to prepare his team for the post-season, playing teams with different styles of play to prepare them for any potential opponent in the tourney. This can cause losses as players learn and adjust but makes them stronger in the long run.

All teams improve during the regular season. Freshmen get experience, teams develop chemistry and gel, and players build up stamina and strength. The teams with the most/best talent can get through the regular season lessons with fewest losses, sure, but does that make them the best teams?

That’s why I think the Quad 1, etc thing is junk. The trajectory of the team over time, not win-loss record, should be emphasized more but that’s too hard to analyze. So, upsets happen because teams like South Dakota got stronger through the season but it wasn’t reflected in the seed. Seeing the upsets does make for a more exciting tourney, though.

Now this I agree with. But sometimes, the committee just gets it wrong. A team like Kentucky got the benefit of the doubt because they beat LSU, Tennessee, and South Carolina consecutively. Should that have carried them to the seed they got? Depends on who you ask. I do think what they did during the regular season should’ve lowered them more, but they legitimately looked like a different team then reverted back to what they showed all regular season. There have been several teams over the years that get boosts for conference tournament play when I’m not sure they should have.

I agree it’s more of a seeding issue. But the way to appropriately analyze that is too difficult and requires a more wholistic approach. I think especially this year with all the injuries and Covid issues it was even harder to analyze. So what’s the solution?

 

[GoCardinal]

And the committee almost put Mizzou in! And left South Dakota out just because they lost to SDST in conference tourney.

South Dakota was never projected to be out of the tournament field. Their league always had 2 in Creme’s projections, and it was SDST that was left out. South Dakota won its conference tournament.

 

[GoCardinal]

I my case no the anti P5 bias is not based on UConn, it is based on not giving teams with mediocre conference seasons entry into the tournament. As a real fan of the game I would rather see mid majors get in than p5 bottom feeders.

Then those mid-majors need to schedule better. Regardless of how we feel about the metrics, the safest way to get in is to adjust to what’s being currently asked by the committee. South Dakota has been playing South Carolina for years. Belmont and Missouri State have been scheduling tough for years. As a mid-major, you can’t fill your non conference games with Chicago State, Seattle U, and Brown and reasonably think that’ll be enough.

South Carolina played literally every top 10 team because Dawn understood the need to test her team while building undoubtedly the best resume for seeding and tournament entry. If more mid-majors want chances, maybe they should schedule OOC like the Belmont’s of the world.

 

[npignatjr]

Then those mid-majors need to schedule better. Regardless of how we feel about the metrics, the safest way to get in is to adjust to what’s being currently asked by the committee. South Dakota has been playing South Carolina for years. Belmont and Missouri State have been scheduling tough for years. As a mid-major, you can’t fill your non conference games with Chicago State, Seattle U, and Brown and reasonably think that’ll be enough.

South Carolina played literally every top 10 team because Dawn understood the need to test her team while building undoubtedly the best resume for seeding and tournament entry. If more mid-majors want chances, maybe they should schedule OOC like the Belmont’s of the world.

Many P5 coaches avoid playing tough mid major teams. And who makes the determination that a team is worthy? Ignore South Carolina for a moment. And Dawn has won how many NCs?

 

[shiverz45]

I did not realize that. It seems strange.

I did not realize the regular season champion was deemed the league champion.

I always thought the ACC way was strange. They recognize a team more for what they did on a weekend than the whole year.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I always thought the ACC way was strange. They recognize a team more for what they did on a weekend than the whole year.

So I take it you also object to crowning the NCAA champion based on performance over the Final Four weekend as opposed to the whole year?

(I suppose that view is at least consistent with Dawn's 2020 Mythical National Championship banner... )

 

[TheFarmFan]

Kansas and Kansas State are nice results for the Big 12, but Kansas State has no chance against NC State and Kansas’ chances of beating Stanford are even smaller.

Attended my first Stanford game this season last night, got to see off our super-super senior Anna Wilson and our other starting seniors, the Hull sisters. At the half, Stanford led by two, and continued to lead by two mid-way through the third. At that point, I was thinking my skepticism of our -20.5 spread was warranted and Plebe's confidence that Kansas stood no chance was folly.

And then Lexie Hull happened. Specifically, her monstrous 36pt, 14-21, 6-11 3PT, 6 RBs, 3 AST, 6 ST home arena swan song. Truly, Lexie Hull willed our team to win in the second half. She was hitting from everywhere - back door cuts, hand-offs on the screen at the elbow for a quick three, mid-range jumpers in traffic. And she did so much that doesn't even show up on the stat sheet, poking balls for turnovers, forcing jump-ball tie-ups after diving to the ground and throwing her body at the ball. Probably the most complete offensive and defensive performance I have ever witnessed by a Cardinal. From 6:33 in the 3rd Q with Stanford only leading 45-42, to 6:18 in the 4th Q, Stanford went on a 35-4 run to blow the game open to 80-46. I have never witnessed such an insane ten-minute offensive output from the Cardinal coupled with such a lockdown defensive performance.

Not going to lie, my friends and I walked out of the arena last night about as proud of our team as we've ever been. And Maples is not known for getting a great crowd presence, so it was also satisfying how packed it was, how loud we were, and how many times Lexie mentioned in her post-game interviews that this was the best crowd she'd ever experienced at Maples and how much it spurred them on. So thank you Anna Wilson, Lacie, and Lexie Hull. What a sweet way to see you guys off!

 

[UcMiami]

Great coaching and/or great talent can land a team in the tournament. Great coaching takes more time to manifest itself and is more likely the reason why a mid-major lands in the tournament.

I do not think there is an overt P-5 bias in the seeding but, as @HuskyNan just stated, the seedings do not properly account for how teams developed throughout the year, which results in a bias favoring talent over coaching, which results in a seeding bias against mid-majors, which results in upsets each year that “expose” the P-5 conferences.

I actually do think the committee gives more weight to the team results post Jan1 than to what happened in the fall, and that inherently favors P5 teams because post Jan 1 is almost exclusively conference schedules and P5 playing P5 always looks better than Ivy vs Ivy.

 

[GoCardinal]

Many P5 coaches avoid playing tough mid major teams. And who makes the determination that a team is worthy? Ignore South Carolina for a moment. And Dawn has won how many NCs?

And many P5 coaches don’t avoid it. That’s on your program to find those that will play. South Dakota, South Dakota State, Belmont, and Missouri State did and don’t seem to have this scheduling issue. Either adjust like these programs did years ago or don’t. That’s just the harsh reality of college basketball. It sucks, but it is what it is currently.

To your point, I can only speak for the team I primarily root for. But Stanford has regularly been playing Gonzaga and UC-Davis OOC. I’m sure there are other P5s that have usual OOC “partners” if you examine schedules. I’d imagine in order to develop schedules, it takes programs building relationships to find consistent partners. Sure there are some coaches unwilling to develop any, but I’m sure there are just as many that will.

 

[cancontent]

Attended my first Stanford game this season last night, got to see off our super-super senior Anna Wilson and our other starting seniors, the Hull sisters. At the half, Stanford led by two, and continued to lead by two mid-way through the third. At that point, I was thinking my skepticism of our -20.5 spread was warranted and Plebe's confidence that Kansas stood no chance was folly.

And then Lexie Hull happened. Specifically, her monstrous 36pt, 14-21, 6-11 3PT, 6 RBs, 3 AST, 6 ST home arena swan song. Truly, Lexie Hull willed our team to win in the second half. She was hitting from everywhere - back door cuts, hand-offs on the screen at the elbow for a quick three, mid-range jumpers in traffic. And she did so much that doesn't even show up on the stat sheet, poking balls for turnovers, forcing jump-ball tie-ups after diving to the ground and throwing her body at the ball. Probably the most complete offensive and defensive performance I have ever witnessed by a Cardinal. From 6:33 in the 3rd Q with Stanford only leading 45-42, to 6:18 in the 4th Q, Stanford went on a 35-4 run to blow the game open to 80-46. I have never witnessed such an insane ten-minute offensive output from the Cardinal coupled with such a lockdown defensive performance.

Not going to lie, my friends andI walked out of the arena last night about as proud of our team as we've ever been. And Maples is not known for getting a great crowd presence, so it was also satisfying how packed it was, how loud we were, and how many times Lexie mentioned in her post-game interviews that this was the best crowd she'd ever experienced at Maples and how much it spurred them on. So thank you Anna Wilson, Lacie, and Lexie Hull. What a sweet way to see you guys off!

I know both she and her sister both get their fair share of credit, but man what a game she had yesterday. Scoring, diving on the floor, you name it. I really enjoy watching her play.

One of my daughter's rep ball coaches has a sister in Palo Alto who is a season ticket holder. I kept telling him to make his way down there to see Stanford live, specifically for her play because I knew he'd appreciate it. Sadly, he didn't take my recommendation and is kicking himself for it now.

 

[Plebe]

Attended my first Stanford game this season last night, got to see off our super-super senior Anna Wilson and our other starting seniors, the Hull sisters. At the half, Stanford led by two, and continued to lead by two mid-way through the third. At that point, I was thinking my skepticism of our -20.5 spread was warranted and Plebe's confidence that Kansas stood no chance was folly.

And then Lexie Hull happened. Specifically, her monstrous 36pt, 14-21, 6-11 3PT, 6 RBs, 3 AST, 6 ST home arena swan song. Truly, Lexie Hull willed our team to win in the second half. She was hitting from everywhere - back door cuts, hand-offs on the screen at the elbow for a quick three, mid-range jumpers in traffic. And she did so much that doesn't even show up on the stat sheet, poking balls for turnovers, forcing jump-ball tie-ups after diving to the ground and throwing her body at the ball. Probably the most complete offensive and defensive performance I have ever witnessed by a Cardinal. From 6:33 in the 3rd Q with Stanford only leading 45-42, to 6:18 in the 4th Q, Stanford went on a 35-4 run to blow the game open to 80-46. I have never witnessed such an insane ten-minute offensive output from the Cardinal coupled with such a lockdown defensive performance.

Not going to lie, my friends and I walked out of the arena last night about as proud of our team as we've ever been. And Maples is not known for getting a great crowd presence, so it was also satisfying how packed it was, how loud we were, and how many times Lexie mentioned in her post-game interviews that this was the best crowd she'd ever experienced at Maples and how much it spurred them on. So thank you Anna Wilson, Lacie, and Lexie Hull. What a sweet way to see you guys off!

I can't recall a single big win by Stanford in the past 3 years where Lexie Hull didn't play a massive role. She doesn't always flood the stat sheet like last night, but she always does countless "glue" things that are the difference between good and great teams. Definitely deserves more recognition.

 

[sivad40]

I always thought the ACC way was strange. They recognize a team more for what they did on a weekend than the whole year.

Once upon a time, only conference tournament winners were allowed to played NCAA Men's Tournament. The ACC declared the tournament champion as the only one they officially recognized. They never changed it even though the field has expanded to include at large teams.

 

[LoTrader]

Stanford is better this year than last year. After all these years watching OSU hang with Stanford for 2 or 3 quarters and then get blown out, Stanford knows how to close games. It all starts with their defense. And, they are so difficult to defend as there is no deeper bench than Stanford's bench. And I'll say it, as I don't think anyone else has said it....Lexie Hull is 1st Team AA. Her game is so complete, incredible 1v1 defender, one of the best help defenders I've ever watched play basketball, and clearly now a prolfic scorer. If any team beats Stanford going forward, they are going to have to play the best game they have ever played. Stanford is peaking at the right time.

 

[jchusky]

I remember before the season when the panic was well Stanford won't be able to replace Kiana Williams. Looks like they been able to

 

[UcMiami]

I remember a few years ago when Marist was on a really strong run, Giorgis complained that they could schedule lots of Power 6 teams if they were willing to only play on their court, but very few were willing to do a home and home with them. He felt they were good enough to not be 'disrespected in that way. Uconn was one of the teams that wasn't interested in the home and home because they had a ton of exposure to the region already with BE opponents and he preferred playing OOC in other regions.

I think it is tough for a lot of Mid-majors to get those home and home dates, but it is also tough for big teams to give up a home date with 5000+ fans for a game in a small arena - Uconn was averaging 10,000 fans at home and Marist has under 4,000 available seats.

 

[GoChips20]

There

Stanford is better this year than last year. After all these years watching OSU hang with Stanford for 2 or 3 quarters and then get blown out, Stanford knows how to close games. It all starts with their defense. And, they are so difficult to defend as there is no deeper bench than Stanford's bench. And I'll say it, as I don't think anyone else has said it....Lexie Hull is 1st Team AA. Her game is so complete, incredible 1v1 defender, one of the best help defenders I've ever watched play basketball, and clearly now a prolfic scorer. If any team beats Stanford going forward, they are going to have to play the best game they have ever played. Stanford is peaking at the right time.

There was a poster on here who suggested Hull should have been PAC-12 POY despite non-gaudy numbers and I agree. Jones may be the most talented with the ability to take over a game, but Hull just has that X-factor as a player.

 

[LETTERL]

And then Lexie Hull happened.

I was still trying to wrap my head around the mystifying losses by Iowa and Baylor in the women's NCAAT, and there was Kansas, hanging with Stanford at halftime. Thinking we were going to see more March Madness, the display put on by Lexie Hull was just amazing. And in the blink of an eye, a 2-point game at halftime was out of reach for Kansas by the 3rd quarter media timeout.

Talk about explosive! Hull was in a zone. And it was a beautiful display of basketball, not just from her but from all of the Cardinal. Almost like a switch was flipped.

 

[diggerfoot]

I actually do think the committee gives more weight to the team results post Jan1 than to what happened in the fall, and that inherently favors P5 teams because post Jan 1 is almost exclusively conference schedules and P5 playing P5 always looks better than Ivy vs Ivy.

I have a slightly different take. Most OOC games occur early in the season, before great coaching would prevail over great talent. So a big reason why later results favor P5 is because earlier OOC results handicaps mid-majors on a trajectory to improve throughout the season.

In theory the committee takes into consideration more recent results, and I agree does so to some extent in practice, but even if they didn’t the fact that OOC games always occur early (unless between powerhouses) causes a lower seed than reality for the well coached mid-major that needs to develop throughout the year.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I was still trying to wrap my head around the mystifying losses by Iowa and Baylor in the women's NCAAT, and there was Kansas, hanging with Stanford at halftime. Thinking we were going to see more March Madness, the display put on by Lexie Hull was just amazing. And in the blink of an eye, a 2-point game at halftime was out of reach for Kansas by the 3rd quarter media timeout.

Talk about explosive! Hull was in a zone. And it was a beautiful display of basketball, not just from her but from all of the Cardinal. Almost like a switch was flipped.

Totally. I think one of the commentators joked that Tara must have switched out the decaf at halftime.

One of my favorite exchanges from the press conference was Brink talking about how thinking about the Hulls leaving was going to make her cry. Then she and Lexie got up to leave and Tara yelled after them, "Don't cry! We won!" and then, under her breath, "At half time, I wanted to cry!"

 

[southie]

I remember before the season when the panic was well Stanford won't be able to replace Kiana Williams. Looks like they been able to

It wasn't just before the season. After Texas freshman PG, Rori Harmon schooled Stanford senior PG Anna Wilson early in the season at Stanford, there was plenty of doubt how PG duties for Stanford would evolve moving forward. Seems like Wilson improved enough throughout the season to remain the starter.

 

[TheFarmFan]

It wasn't just before the season. After Texas freshman PG, Rori Harmon schooled Stanford senior PG Anna Wilson early in the season at Stanford, there was plenty of doubt how PG duties for Stanford would evolve moving forward. Seems like Wilson improved enough throughout the season to remain the starter.

Harmon had one steal and Wilson had one turnover. I'd hardly say Harmon "schooled" her. The main difference is Texas runs their offense largely through Harmon, whereas Wilson has always been more of a 5th/6th/7th option on offense for the Cardinal. IMHO, a lot of the reason we lost that day was shooting a pitiful 4-27 (14%) from outside. Some of that was the sustained and disruptive perimeter defense of the Texas guards, a hallmark of all Vic teams of which Harmon was no small part, and due credit to her. But a lot was also missing wide open treys. If we'd even gone 6-27 (22%) from outside Stanford would have prevailed that day...

 

[LoboDays]

Michigan is a 12.5 point fav over Nova tonight. Hock the family jewels and take the points.

 

[LoTrader]

I was still trying to wrap my head around the mystifying losses by Iowa and Baylor in the women's NCAAT, and there was Kansas, hanging with Stanford at halftime. Thinking we were going to see more March Madness, the display put on by Lexie Hull was just amazing. And in the blink of an eye, a 2-point game at halftime was out of reach for Kansas by the 3rd quarter media timeout.

Talk about explosive! Hull was in a zone. And it was a beautiful display of basketball, not just from her but from all of the Cardinal. Almost like a switch was flipped.

Fans of other PAC-12 WBB Schools were not surprised at Stanford "blowing away" their competitor in the 2nd half. This has been routine for Stanford this season, and even last season. This team knows how to finish. Starts with their defense.

 

[southie]

Harmon had one steal and Wilson had one turnover. I'd hardly say Harmon "schooled" her. The main difference is Texas runs their offense largely through Harmon, whereas Wilson has always been more of a 5th/6th/7th option on offense for the Cardinal. IMHO, a lot of the reason we lost that day was shooting a pitiful 4-27 (14%) from outside. Some of that was the sustained and disruptive perimeter defense of the Texas guards, a hallmark of all Vic teams of which Harmon was no small part, and due credit to her. But a lot was also missing wide open treys. If we'd even gone 6-27 (22%) from outside Stanford would have prevailed that day...

Harmon had 21 points; Wilson had 6 points. They guarded each other most of the 27 minutes Wilson played and the 32 minutes Harmon played. Those stats indicate Wilson could not guard Harmon, and Harmon was very effective defensively against Wilson. Harmon had 5 rebounds, while Wilson had 1.

Women's Basketball vs Stanford on 11/14/21 - Box Score - University of Texas Athletics

University of Texas Athletics

texassports.com

 

[TheFarmFan]

Harmon had 21 points; Wilson had 6 points. They guarded each other most of the 27 minutes Wilson played and the 32 minutes Harmon played. Those stats indicate Wilson could not guard Harmon, and Harmon was very effective defensively against Wilson. Harmon had 5 rebounds, while Wilson had 1.

Women's Basketball vs Stanford on 11/14/21 - Box Score - University of Texas Athletics

University of Texas Athletics

texassports.com

I get that homers want to home, but I just think you're misattributing causality here. Wilson was tentative on offense and shooting poorly the entire early part of this season. Wilson's two makes vs. Harmon and her 6 pts vs. Harmon were actually the most baskets and most points she scored in a single game through the first eleven games of the season. So if anything, Harmon apparently did a worse job guarding Wilson than the guards for Morgan St. (1 basket, 3 points), Portland (1 basket, 2 points), Gonzaga (0 baskets, 1 point), Pacific (1 basket, 3 points), and UC Davis (0 baskets, 0 points).

It's definitely the case that we struggled with Texas's full court press, but I actually think Wilson handles it better than our other ball handlers, and I don't think Wilson going 2-7 had much if anything to do with why we lost.

 

[Plebe]

From the looks of things, the potential Texas–Stanford rematch in the Elite Eight will elicit plenty of pointed commentary