I posted this in response to an older thread I started on the Football board, but I think this is the far more appropriate venue:
First, I apologize for being the guy who revives his own thread. But the Mizzou press conference to me said " The Big12 - we're over it. If we have to we'll go to the SEC, but we'd just assume go to B1G if you'd just come around to asking."
Which, if Mizzou can leverage them into an offer, and I think they can, this puts both the SEC and the B1G at an awkward / unstable 13 team configuration with presumably 3 moves left each, which if I were Deleaney, I would play two more immediately.
First, why do I take Mizzou if I am the B1G?...because it can have the effect of forcing ND's hand. If you take them together with UConn and Rutgers you have: 1) added / further penetrated 26.8 million homes for your network (NY/NJ/PA - 19M; StL/KC - 4.8M; Hart/NH/Stam: 3M) vastly increasing the value of your network and payout to your members; 2) taken away the ACC's presumed backstop in UConn/Rutgers; 3)opened the ACC for poaching. With one spot remaining you make overtures to Texas (which you don't plan to get, but hang on).
This single move then forces the SEC to make offensive moves to bring Texas into the conference and keep the B1G out of their backyard. Assuming for the sake of argument that the SEC poaches one of UL / WVU (which I personally think UL brings more to the table) then I believe that the SEC also pulls one team from the ACC - which I won't bother to speculate because frankly it doesn't matter to this scenario. Now the SEC is also at 15 teams and the ACC is actually weaker by adding Cuse / Pitt and losing one of FSU/VT/Clemson and is sitting at 13 teams.
By this point I have to imagine, despite the decades of tradition, that ND needs to make a decision - especially given that the B1G is openly courting Texas for the final spot. And looking around at a stable 15 team conference that still offers them fair exposure to the NE (PSU / Rutgers / UConn) versus an ACC that with legitimately 2 strong football teams needing to add an additional 3 members that may consist of the likes of WVU and who knows who else at that point, I can't imagine them not signing up. And to address the question, would the B1G really want Texas? I would think no. ND, in this scenario, would be the coalescing factor that unites and completely penetrates NYC and, let's not forget Chicago, a market of 9.4 millino covered by Northwestern / Illinois but, like NYC with UConn/Rutgers, needing that glue to sow it up.
Texas falls to the SEC, Pac-10 gets OK / OK State and may even stay at 14, the Big12 scoops up the remaining Big East / independents, and the ACC can suck balls.
Just this guys .02.