OT: Machado to the Padres 10 Yr/$300M

[the Q]

No player is REMOTELY worth that. Huge long term deals are notorious for very poor ROI. Machado is a good player at best: he’s a lifetime .282 hitter with a .335 on-base percentage and a .487 slugging percentage who hasn’t won an MVP in five years of 600+ ABs.

I don’t begrudge Machado getting paid - more power too him. But his performance to-date doesn’t warrant the payday he got. It’s highly likely that his next 10 years will under deliver on this contract. Mightily.

Look at the ones for players his age.

There’s been like 4 or 5 players who have had 30 war by his age.

A couple hall of famers and A-rod.

He could get fat and injured. Sure.

But he’s also a top talent hitting fa at an unusually young age.

This isn’t Pujols and cano hitting fa past 30.

 

[methodology]

Look at the ones for players his age.

There’s been like 4 or 5 players who have had 30 war by his age.

A couple hall of famers and A-rod.

He could get fat and injured. Sure.

But he’s also a top talent hitting fa at an unusually young age.

This isn’t Pujols and cano hitting fa past 30.

Arod and Manny are very good friends. Believe they went to same high school. Arod has been a mentor to manny for many years and he has trained with him in offseason before

 

[the Q]

If they don’t go on strike the sport is going to lose a lot of ground it can’t afford to lose.

This round of collusion is so short sighted.

Mlb will never make it back from a strike/lockout.

Nor will 90% of common person America know what the difference actually. See all the references to the nfl and nba labor strifes.

 

[whaler11]

Mlb will never make it back from a strike/lockout.

Nor will 90% of common person America know what the difference actually. See all the references to the nfl and nba labor strifes.

well unless the players can negotiate an nba type cap with a floor based on percentage of revenue without a strike they have really no choice.

they should start by firing tony clark 2 years ago. what a clown.

 

[the Q]

well unless the players can negotiate an nba type cap with a floor based on percentage of revenue without a strike they have really no choice.

they should start by firing tony clark 2 years ago. what a clown.

Strongly against a cap. Baffled by how people are against businesses investing in their product.

 

[Towney007]

It's a pretty darn good contract. He's 26, not 29 - so his age 26-32 seasons should more than provide enough surplus value to justify any issues he'll have on the back end. Looks big and cumbersome, but really, this deal is peanuts in terms of real cost compared to say - Hosmer, who was a bad deal to begin with.

 

[whaler11]

Strongly against a cap. Baffled by how people are against businesses investing in their product.

well there is no cap and they are doing the opposite of investing.

 

[methodology]

Strongly against a cap. Baffled by how people are against businesses investing in their product.

Cap/ floor would make it even larger disparity. Large market teams would field 30 minor league teams instead and scout the globe for any and all talent. They would play the numbers game instead and be the ones producing the next cost controlled stars

 

[the Q]

well there is no cap and they are doing the opposite of investing.

They already have a de facto cap with the draconian taxes.

They needed a floor to go with it. One like the nba and nfl being like 30m from the line.

 

[the Q]

It's a pretty darn good contract. He's 26, not 29 - so his age 26-32 seasons should more than provide enough surplus value to justify any issues he'll have on the back end. Looks big and cumbersome, but really, this deal is peanuts in terms of real cost compared to say - Hosmer, who was a bad deal to begin with.

Worst contract, non Chris Davis division in all of baseball.

Just a bafflingly stupid deal.

 

[Deepster]

I'm really surprised these monster contracts are still being thrown out there when they don't show any correlation to actually winning a title and almost always end up as an albatross on a middle/lower ranked team. They then end up trading the player and eating a huge sum of money....or living with someone like a current day Albert Pujols.

As a Mets fan, I'm glad they haven't gone crazy on anyone like Stanton or Machado or Harper. I feel like winning in the postseason is:

a) A pure Ace on the mound in pivotal games
b) A great pen with a lights out closer
c) A lineup that grinds out every at bat, doesn't strike out and gets the opposing starter out and attacks a bullpen.

 

[whaler11]

They already have a de facto cap with the draconian taxes.

They needed a floor to go with it. One like the nba and nfl being like 30m from the line.

exactly

 

[Husky25]

Ellsbury sucks, but everyone knew at the time that was a horrible deal.

Not everybody. At least one BY member loved the deal (I can point out a couple of other Yankee fans who were more than luke warm about it as well). This poster thought Ellsbury would put up MVP numbers for years to come, especially hitting homers in the "bandbox in right field in [Yankee Stadium III]."

Since hitting 32 home runs in 2011, Ellsbury's season HR totals were 4, 9, 16, 7, 9, 7 and missed all of 2018 with injury. He now has plantar fasciitus, and is still guaranteed more than $42M over the next 18 months.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Not everybody. At least one BY member loved the deal (I can point out a couple of other Yankee fans who were more than luke warm about it as well). This poster thought Ellsbury would put up MVP numbers for years to come, especially hitting homers in the "bandbox in right field in [Yankee Stadium III]."

Since hitting 32 home runs in 2011, Ellsbury's season HR totals were 4, 9, 16, 7, 9, 7 and missed all of 2018 with injury. He now has plantar fasciitus, and is still guaranteed more than $42M over the next 18 months.

I remember the general consensus was that even if his avg/obp and defense aged ok, it was still a huge overpay. I can't imagine anyone seriously thinking he was going to be a consistent 20 hr guy, let alone 30. But maybe that was just my circle.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

well unless the players can negotiate an nba type cap with a floor based on percentage of revenue without a strike they have really no choice.

they should start by firing tony clark 2 years ago. what a clown.

Go figure, hiring a former player with zero experience to lead a labor union worked out poorly.

 

[Towney007]

Worst contract, non Chris Davis division in all of baseball.

Just a bafflingly stupid deal.

What's dumb about it? Because it's long? Or a lot of money?

This isn't a contract that you're giving to a guy at 30 and Davis was like... 30/31 with a sky high K% to boot.

He's going to be in the prime of his career for literally half of the deal. He's younger than Aaron Judge and Kris Bryant. He's roughly going to be the 10th best position player in baseball this coming year according to Steamer - which plops him right between Yelich and Bregman.

When you look at the numbers and his projections, he should be worth about 38-39 WAR over the course of the deal, which makes him worth it AND he'll be 36 when it's finally up.

IF you look at the downside of the deal and look at everyone comparable to Machado since 1950... and they average around 30 WAR or so. Great players usually tend to stay great for a while and Machado is a really great player. His historical comps are Adrian Beltre, Ron Santo and Andruw Jones. Ken Griffey Jr, Cal Ripken and Bryce Harper are also in his top 10. Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arenado are both his most comparable bats and they're older.

He's at a position that's got less positional depth than any other in baseball currently, so there's a premium to that.

Plus the Padres have a good farm system full of club-controlled guys who are likely to perform at a high level without cost much. This gives them the flexiblity to invest in other areas of their team.
Plus there's an opt out after year 5, so there's a good chance he's not in town past that.

So it puts them into contention for the forseeable future, with an escape hatch after 5 years if everyone holds up their end of the deal and even if he opts in, Hosmer's salary goes from $21 million to $13 million and Myers' money is off the books entirely by then. That money basically pays off the back end of the contract, assuming its not front loaded.

It's a great deal.

 

[UConnSean]

What's dumb about it? Because it's long? Or a lot of money?

This isn't a contract that you're giving to a guy at 30 and Davis was like... 30/31 with a sky high K% to boot.

He's going to be in the prime of his career for literally half of the deal. He's younger than Aaron Judge and Kris Bryant. He's roughly going to be the 10th best position player in baseball this coming year according to Steamer - which plops him right between Yelich and Bregman.

When you look at the numbers and his projections, he should be worth about 38-39 WAR over the course of the deal, which makes him worth it AND he'll be 36 when it's finally up.

IF you look at the downside of the deal and look at everyone comparable to Machado since 1950... and they average around 30 WAR or so. Great players usually tend to stay great for a while and Machado is a really great player. His historical comps are Adrian Beltre, Ron Santo and Andruw Jones. Ken Griffey Jr, Cal Ripken and Bryce Harper are also in his top 10. Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arenado are both his most comparable bats and they're older.

He's at a position that's got less positional depth than any other in baseball currently, so there's a premium to that.

Plus the Padres have a good farm system full of club-controlled guys who are likely to perform at a high level without cost much. This gives them the flexiblity to invest in other areas of their team.
Plus there's an opt out after year 5, so there's a good chance he's not in town past that.

So it puts them into contention for the forseeable future, with an escape hatch after 5 years if everyone holds up their end of the deal and even if he opts in, Hosmer's salary goes from $21 million to $13 million and Myers' money is off the books entirely by then. That money basically pays off the back end of the contract, assuming its not front loaded.

It's a great deal.

I agree completely...all of the get off my lawn responses in this thread are very amusing

 

[Deepster]

What's dumb about it? Because it's long? Or a lot of money?

This isn't a contract that you're giving to a guy at 30 and Davis was like... 30/31 with a sky high K% to boot.

He's going to be in the prime of his career for literally half of the deal. He's younger than Aaron Judge and Kris Bryant. He's roughly going to be the 10th best position player in baseball this coming year according to Steamer - which plops him right between Yelich and Bregman.

When you look at the numbers and his projections, he should be worth about 38-39 WAR over the course of the deal, which makes him worth it AND he'll be 36 when it's finally up.

IF you look at the downside of the deal and look at everyone comparable to Machado since 1950... and they average around 30 WAR or so. Great players usually tend to stay great for a while and Machado is a really great player. His historical comps are Adrian Beltre, Ron Santo and Andruw Jones. Ken Griffey Jr, Cal Ripken and Bryce Harper are also in his top 10. Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arenado are both his most comparable bats and they're older.

He's at a position that's got less positional depth than any other in baseball currently, so there's a premium to that.

Plus the Padres have a good farm system full of club-controlled guys who are likely to perform at a high level without cost much. This gives them the flexiblity to invest in other areas of their team.
Plus there's an opt out after year 5, so there's a good chance he's not in town past that.

So it puts them into contention for the forseeable future, with an escape hatch after 5 years if everyone holds up their end of the deal and even if he opts in, Hosmer's salary goes from $21 million to $13 million and Myers' money is off the books entirely by then. That money basically pays off the back end of the contract, assuming its not front loaded.

It's a great deal.

Says the guy who thought Pablo Sandoval was going to make a big comeback..... *eyeroll*

 

[Towney007]

I agree completely...all of the get off my lawn responses in this thread are very amusing

I mean if there was ever a guy a team SHOULD spend on - it's a guy who basically plays one of the scarcest positions in baseball, can moonlight at a premium position, hits in the middle of the order who's TWENTY SIX and who you'll get 5-6 years worth of peak baseball from. If you're not going to spend on a guy like that, then who?

Now one downside I COULD see the Padres struggling with is if their farm system churns guys out faster than they can pay for them. Like i'm talking 3-4 years down the line when a few of their exciting, young players head into arbitration... That could get tough. But if you're the Padres- who have flipping sucked for YEARS - then you deal with that when/if it comes and realistically even if that happens - you're looking at 1-2 years where you have to be a little creative.

But again - Myers is off the books in four years. Hosmer in six, but his salary is like... $13 million in three/four years. So again, a lot would have to happen for them to be up against it - that's all assuming Machado's contract is flatly $30 million per for 10. Could be front loaded.

So it's nuts. Not everyone wants to play in NYC and get screamed at by their idiot beat writers because they didn't tie their shoelaces the right way, one time.

 

[Towney007]

Says the guy who thought Pablo Sandoval was going to make a big comeback..... *eyeroll*

Where on the doll did Machado touch you?

 

[superjohn]

That's not really true - especially as it pertains to the Yankees. The Yankees and the Myth of the Onerous Long-Term Contract - River Avenue Blues

That really wasn't a good piece in favor of those long monster contracts.

 

[the Q]

What's dumb about it? Because it's long? Or a lot of money?

This isn't a contract that you're giving to a guy at 30 and Davis was like... 30/31 with a sky high K% to boot.

He's going to be in the prime of his career for literally half of the deal. He's younger than Aaron Judge and Kris Bryant. He's roughly going to be the 10th best position player in baseball this coming year according to Steamer - which plops him right between Yelich and Bregman.

When you look at the numbers and his projections, he should be worth about 38-39 WAR over the course of the deal, which makes him worth it AND he'll be 36 when it's finally up.

IF you look at the downside of the deal and look at everyone comparable to Machado since 1950... and they average around 30 WAR or so. Great players usually tend to stay great for a while and Machado is a really great player. His historical comps are Adrian Beltre, Ron Santo and Andruw Jones. Ken Griffey Jr, Cal Ripken and Bryce Harper are also in his top 10. Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arenado are both his most comparable bats and they're older.

He's at a position that's got less positional depth than any other in baseball currently, so there's a premium to that.

Plus the Padres have a good farm system full of club-controlled guys who are likely to perform at a high level without cost much. This gives them the flexiblity to invest in other areas of their team.
Plus there's an opt out after year 5, so there's a good chance he's not in town past that.

So it puts them into contention for the forseeable future, with an escape hatch after 5 years if everyone holds up their end of the deal and even if he opts in, Hosmer's salary goes from $21 million to $13 million and Myers' money is off the books entirely by then. That money basically pays off the back end of the contract, assuming its not front loaded.

It's a great deal.

I was referring to hosmer.

I’ve been defending the machado deal this entire thread.

 

[Deepster]

Where on the doll did Machado touch you?

I'm not sure how my comment would translate to Manny Machado sexually molesting me?

It's a pretty clear point. Why believe your post when you fought even harder that Sandoval's weight wasn't an issue and that he'd make a comeback?

 

[superjohn]

Found footage of @superjohn

That kid is awesome!

 

[superjohn]

Are Machado and Harper really 2 of the best 5 players in baseball? They are lifetime .280 hitters.