OT: Machado to the Padres 10 Yr/$300M

the Q

BY Misanthrope
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#2
The hosmer signing is far worse. Machado has a pretty good chance of being worth this deal.

Without that illogical hosmer signing they could’ve had a real shot to land both Harper and machado
 
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#4
Work ethic? Explain. I've followed him very closely since being drafted. Buck and Orioles never questioned his work ethic or desire and you seem to forget prior to last year the Orioles were pretty good for a 4 year stretch

Save his 2 knee surgeries he's a better bet of fulfilling his contract than Harper and if he goes back to 3rd only nolan is better. If he played in Boston or NY he would have been baseball's biggest star after trout
 
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#5
Great signing by the Padres. Their farm system is deepest in baseball and there are some real bluechippers arriving soon (headlined by Fernando Tatis Jr.). They also have a ton of young assets already in the majors.

The one blemish in the rebuild was signing Hosmer. Will Myers or Fanmail Reyes could have manned 1B and they could use that money on a frontline starter.
 
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#6
I wanted him on the Yankees but definitely glad they passed on giving out this contract of course would rather pay Manny 10 years then the Ellsbury contract that their still dealing with now.
 
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#8
This deal is going to look much much better than the one Harper will get later this week. But this is a very good deal for the Padres
 
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#10
The hosmer signing is far worse. Machado has a pretty good chance of being worth this deal.

Without that illogical hosmer signing they could’ve had a real shot to land both Harper and machado
They're both pretty bad deals IMO.

Hosmer I just never liked. He always has a GB% over 50% and completely relies on BABIP luck to have his good seasons. His OPS+/wRC+ were below league average in year 1 of the deal.

Roughly 1/3 of Machado's value has come from defense since he began his career. Defense is the first thing to typically go. San Diego will be lucky if he's providing positive defensive value 5 years from now, let alone 10. He's only had an OPS over .850 3 out of his 7 seasons, and that's in the most offensive friendly division in baseball. He's now moving to the least offensive division in baseball. He's a great player, but I'm not sure how he'll be at age 31 relative to bigger offensive talents.

I think the last 4 years of this deal will be close to a sunk cost for the Padres. $30M may not be as daunting of a number in 2025, but still, I don't like the risk here for them. They better pray that Tatis is a monster and that Urias, Patino, Morejon, and Paddack are good too. They need to be a contender a few years from now for these huge deals to make any sense.
 

the Q

BY Misanthrope
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#11
They're both pretty bad deals IMO.

Hosmer I just never liked. He always has a GB% over 50% and completely relies on BABIP luck to have his good seasons. His OPS+/wRC+ were below league average in year 1 of the deal.

Roughly 1/3 of Machado's value has come from defense since he began his career. Defense is the first thing to typically go. San Diego will be lucky if he's providing positive defensive value 5 years from now, let alone 10. He's only had an OPS over .850 3 out of his 7 seasons, and that's in the most offensive friendly division in baseball. He's now moving to the least offensive division in baseball. He's a great player, but I'm not sure how he'll be at age 31 relative to bigger offensive talents.

I think the last 4 years of this deal will be close to a sunk cost for the Padres. $30M may not be as daunting of a number in 2025, but still, I don't like the risk here for them. They better pray that Tatis is a monster and that Urias, Patino, Morejon, and Paddack are good too. They need to be a contender a few years from now for these huge deals to make any sense.
Manny Machado projected statistics until 2025

Interesting article about projecting out the next 7 years.

If he’s anywhere between the middle and “optimistic” he’ll be pretty darn close to this deal because of how the value of wins bought in fa and inflation to that move. It’s already over 9 now.

Idk that I would give anyone 10 years, there’s a solid non zero chance he’s worth this, or at least close to it.
 

Pgh2Storrs

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#12
Someone posted the potential Padres lineup, conceivably to draw "ooohs and awes" but...yeah, I wasn't terribly impressed. He's a very good player, but I don't see this changing too much in the NL. He upgraded his weather, so I guess that's something.

2019 is the year of the Pirates anyway, so this is all just window dressing.
 
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#14
They're both pretty bad deals IMO.

Hosmer I just never liked. He always has a GB% over 50% and completely relies on BABIP luck to have his good seasons. His OPS+/wRC+ were below league average in year 1 of the deal.

Roughly 1/3 of Machado's value has come from defense since he began his career. Defense is the first thing to typically go. San Diego will be lucky if he's providing positive defensive value 5 years from now, let alone 10. He's only had an OPS over .850 3 out of his 7 seasons, and that's in the most offensive friendly division in baseball. He's now moving to the least offensive division in baseball. He's a great player, but I'm not sure how he'll be at age 31 relative to bigger offensive talents.

I think the last 4 years of this deal will be close to a sunk cost for the Padres. $30M may not be as daunting of a number in 2025, but still, I don't like the risk here for them. They better pray that Tatis is a monster and that Urias, Patino, Morejon, and Paddack are good too. They need to be a contender a few years from now for these huge deals to make any sense.
He has had 3 of the last 4 seasons with OPS over 850 with the last 2 being over .900. He was 22 years old 4 years ago so you counting his 18-21 year old seasons to make a point is comical especially when 2 of those seasons were cut short by injury

He will move to back 3rd eventually where he won a platinum glove and was the best fielding 3rd baseman since Brooks. He will not be 40 when his contract expires but yes the last 3 years he won't live up to the yearly salary, most likely, but he will live up to the total value as he will overperform a couple years
 
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#15
Manny Machado projected statistics until 2025

Interesting article about projecting out the next 7 years.

If he’s anywhere between the middle and “optimistic” he’ll be pretty darn close to this deal because of how the value of wins bought in fa and inflation to that move. It’s already over 9 now.

Idk that I would give anyone 10 years, there’s a solid non zero chance he’s worth this, or at least close to it.
True. More FA are going to consider SD an option now, and if he has a few more monster years then he may be worth the deal because of the front end. The only full season he hasn’t been worth $30M in (according to fangraphs) was 2017. I don’t see him being worth the $30M AAV on the backend if you take the years individually, but he’s had 3 great seasons out of the last 4 and should keep exceeding that $30M AAV in the coming years.

If the Padres are finally competitive consistently by the end of his deal then there will be no complaints, because nothing they’ve tried so far has worked. It would be cool for SD if he could finally tip the scales for them.
 

ConnHuskBask

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#18
Why fans argue over dollars in a league without a salary cap will always puzzle me.

Machado is 26 and one of the best players in baseball, this is a good deal. MLB is flush with cash, but somehow San Diego ended up with him over the big markets that could have used him? Steinbrenners have brainwashed Yankee fans with the "luxury tax" bs.

If he continues to be as good as he's been, he probably thinks about opting out at 31 too and trying to get one last big payday. In which case if you're the Padres you got him for 5 / $150M for the prime of his career.
 
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#19
Why fans argue over dollars in a league without a salary cap will always puzzle me.

Machado is 26 and one of the best players in baseball, this is a good deal. MLB is flush with cash, but somehow San Diego ended up with him over the big markets that could have used him? Steinbrenners have brainwashed Yankee fans with the "luxury tax" bs.

If he continues to be as good as he's been, he probably thinks about opting out at 31 too and trying to get one last big payday. In which case if you're the Padres you got him for 5 / $150M for the prime of his career.
Money is a real obstacle, though. Even with an unlimited salary pool, teams still have their own budgets. So if you're the Yankees and you pay Manny thats less money to use on bigger positional needs.
 
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#20
Why fans argue over dollars in a league without a salary cap will always puzzle me.

Machado is 26 and one of the best players in baseball, this is a good deal. MLB is flush with cash, but somehow San Diego ended up with him over the big markets that could have used him? Steinbrenners have brainwashed Yankee fans with the "luxury tax" bs.

If he continues to be as good as he's been, he probably thinks about opting out at 31 too and trying to get one last big payday. In which case if you're the Padres you got him for 5 / $150M for the prime of his career.
I doubt at 31 someone is going to offer him more than the 5 years and 150 million he would get if he opts in.
 
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#22
Great player but dirty. Also cannot erase the memory of him jogging down to first in the World Series while finding time to blow on a piece of gum. Is the deal worth it? Maybe, but he is lazy and gives up when things don't go his way.
 

ConnHuskBask

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#23
Money is a real obstacle, though. Even with an unlimited salary pool, teams still have their own budgets. So if you're the Yankees and you pay Manny thats less money to use on bigger positional needs.
The thing is, money shouldn't be an obstacle for the Yankees. In the past decade plus, the Yankees have seen increasing revenues, but their payroll hasn't risen along with it.

In 2004 they spent 84% of their revenue (estimated rev $265M) on salaries and fast forward to 2017 when they took in an estimataed $650M and the payroll was $193M, which was only around 30% of the revenue. Putting the Yankees’ financial austerity in context

So if you want to say that they are a business and have a budget to stick to, that's fine and all if you're concerned with the Yankees lining their pockets. As a fan, I just can't sit hear and listen to the idea that they don't have the money to sign them when they are making more than they ever were.

I doubt at 31 someone is going to offer him more than the 5 years and 150 million he would get if he opts in.
Could be a new CBA by that point in time though. Either way he gets to asses the market. For the Padres having years 31-36 isn't the worse thing in the world either. Most free agent deals end up going south because you pay big bucks for 35-40 aged seasons.
 

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