OT: Machado to the Padres 10 Yr/$300M

[storrsroars]

He's 26 not 32 and 3rd base you don't need range to be a great fielder. He's not going to decline ..or continue to decline as you like to say ad nauseam in this thread. He makes plays at 3rd some of the best to ever play couldn't make. His soft hands, arm strength and feel for the game at the hot corner is amazing to watch

Talk to me in October. There will be more data by then. You could be right. I could be right. But I'm damned sure the guy from post #186 ain't.

 

[intlzncster]

Well, to be fair.....he was on steroids.

Sure as snow didn't help his speed.

 

[intlzncster]

He's 26 not 32 and 3rd base you don't need range to be a great fielder. He's not going to decline ..or continue to decline as you like to say ad nauseam in this thread. He makes plays at 3rd some of the best to ever play couldn't make. His soft hands, arm strength and feel for the game at the hot corner is amazing to watch

A lot of that is predicated on health. A lot of these contracts are as well...

 

[Towney007]

They've all been built almost exclusively from within? Don' know about all those other teams but that's certainly not the case with the Red Sox.

On the hitting side? Betts? Benintendi? Bradley? Bogaerts? Pedroia? Vasquez? Devers? Martinez was a guy they bought

Sale they traded for and gave up two highly regarded prospects to get him. So the farm system allowed them to get Sale, too. Price they bought. They WILDLY overpaid for Pomeranz and arguably Kimbrell, too. But again - drafting - and prospects are what brought most of those guys in.

Don't get me wrong - they've been buy-heavy in the past and not the best example, but positionally they're almost entirely homegrown.

 

[Towney007]

A lot of that is predicated on health. A lot of these contracts are as well...

Every contract is predicated on health.

 

[superjohn]

On the hitting side? Betts? Benintendi? Bradley? Bogaerts? Pedroia? Vasquez? Devers? Martinez was a guy they bought

Sale they traded for and gave up two highly regarded prospects to get him. So the farm system allowed them to get Sale, too. Price they bought. They WILDLY overpaid for Pomeranz and arguably Kimbrell, too. But again - drafting - and prospects are what brought most of those guys in.

Don't get me wrong - they've been buy-heavy in the past and not the best example, but positionally they're almost entirely homegrown.

Yes on this team, most of the hitting is homegrown but basically all the pitching isn't. Off the top of my head Sale, Price, Eovaldi. Porcello, Brasier, Joe Kelly and Kimbrell. I didn't watch them during the season but that seemed to be their whole rotation in the playoffs minus Barnes.

 

[Husky25]

Again, the Red Sox were always top 5, usually top 2 or 3 in payroll and they were the ones whining. Again, Oakland has a case not the Red Sox. The Yankees payroll was 70 million less than the Red Sox this year, should they have been whining about it?

I believe the Sox were around #8 when they got over the hump in 2003/04. Still single figures, but not top 5.

 

[FlippinCrazy!]

Let's see...

"Machado is a top defender at 3b"... he was at one time.
2015: 7th of 20 qualifiers in UZR/150, 3rd in DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). That's very good.
2016: 2nd of 18 in UZR/150 and 4th in DRS. Even better than 2015.
2017: 9th of 18 in UZR/150 (dropped from 9.9 to 2.2... losing range!) and 7th of 18 in DRS (dropped from 13 to a mere 6). He fell from very good/excellent to slightly above average.

"above average at short"... in 2018 Machado's defense ranked 22nd out of 22 qualifying shortstops. I suppose you could say that there's nowhere to go but up!

Obviously Manny should be at 3b going forward. And while it's possible 2017 was an aberration, he's two years older, so a return to very good/excellent defense would seem optimistic. But as of right now, "top defender" he is not.

"Harper is above average in right field"... I posted this already, but happy to do an encore showing Harper is pretty much the worst defensive OF in MLB among qualifiers. #57 of 57 qualifiers in UZR/150... meaning he has no range. And 56th of 57 when measured on DRS with an abysmal -26 (saved from the bottom only by Charlie Blackmon's -28, which was half compiled in Coors Field, one of the most spacious CFs in MLB).

Don't know what else to tell you, other than if you're relying on the eye test, might be time to get a new pair of glasses.

What I’ll say is that defensive metrics are the least developed stat in baseball. Looking at those lists for shortstop and outfield, it’s laughable where some guys are. Schwarber number 4 in uzr? Alcidis Escobar 18?

Machado has good range and arm, a little error prone at short which is expected for a guy that hasn’t played there for 5 years. Harper has decent range and a good arm. That’s the definition of a right fielder. Maybe he’s not “above average” these days with all the good outfielders, but he’s good enough.

Regardless, these guys aren’t being signed for their gloves.

 

[Husky25]

On the hitting side? Betts? Benintendi? Bradley? Bogaerts? Pedroia? Vasquez? Devers? Martinez was a guy they bought

Sale they traded for and gave up two highly regarded prospects to get him. So the farm system allowed them to get Sale, too. Price they bought. They WILDLY overpaid for Pomeranz and arguably Kimbrell, too. But again - drafting - and prospects are what brought most of those guys in.

Don't get me wrong - they've been buy-heavy in the past and not the best example, but positionally they're almost entirely homegrown.

Kimbrell was acquired via trade.

 

[the Q]

Kimbrell was acquired via trade.

So was Pom.

They were overpays via trade.

 

[Excalibur]

I asked you if you're serious? You think Yankees ownership and Yankees fans should be whining about the Red Sox having a $70 mil. higher payroll than the Yankees this past season?

Plenty of them have brought up this very point, so . . .

 

[Excalibur]

Yes on this team, most of the hitting is homegrown but basically all the pitching isn't. Off the top of my head Sale, Price, Eovaldi. Porcello, Brasier, Joe Kelly and Kimbrell. I didn't watch them during the season but that seemed to be their whole rotation in the playoffs minus Barnes.

The Cherington-era Red Sox were absolutely awful at scouting and developing pitchers.

 

[the Q]

The Cherington-era Red Sox were absolutely awful at scouting and developing pitchers.

theo era wasn’t much better.

He inherited Lester

He did draft papelbon and buchholz.

But it wasn’t much beyond that.

 

[Towney007]

What I’ll say is that defensive metrics are the least developed stat in baseball. Looking at those lists for shortstop and outfield, it’s laughable where some guys are. Schwarber number 4 in uzr? Alcidis Escobar 18?

Machado has good range and arm, a little error prone at short which is expected for a guy that hasn’t played there for 5 years. Harper has decent range and a good arm. That’s the definition of a right fielder. Maybe he’s not “above average” these days with all the good outfielders, but he’s good enough.

Regardless, these guys aren’t being signed for their gloves.

Escobar has been one of the best defensive SS in baseball for a long time, now so I dunno what's silly about that.

I mean Machado is pretty clearly on the absolute downside - a very, very, very good 3B defensively. He was a +81 DRS at 3B, which was the second best at that position. For a frame of reference, Arenado was 1st at +104 DRS and Beltre was 3rd at +56 DRS.

The Orioles moved him back over to SS last year at his request - and it was a mess at first, but the Dodgers did a truck ton of work with him on the analytical side and shaded him to his right a bit more and it worked. He looked great there in LA. That's not too surprising to me though - the Orioles are kinda behind the 8-ball analytically while the Dodgers are one of the best in the sport..

And basically - he hadn't played the position in years. So there's going to be an adjustment period. But even if he's just average there - that literally catapults his value overall - especially if he's fine moving to 3B now and then. It's kinda a young man's position right now.. the only two SS's over the age of 30 are Crawford and Mercer, and they're 30 and 31. Machado is only 26. So maybe he's there for four years then hop scotches back to a position where he's a legitimate dude.

But either way - to me its nuts to say 'oh well he's bad defensively at SS so this deal isn't warranted' - because even if he's average, he's now that much more valuable - AND there's always the fallback of pushing him back to 3B where you basically have one of the top 3 defenders in the position there all of a sudden.

And I dunno - regardless of what anyone thought of him - He came in a little UNDER where he was pegged to go in the preseason. Bowden had him at $310 million. Fangraphs crowdsourcing had him at $256. MLBTR had him at 13/$390 million. Either way, the AAV always cooked out to a little over $30 million.

So to get a guy with his bat and tandem defensive versatility at a position where that's at a premium at 26 with 4-6 years of PRIME production left.. I'd say that's a pretty good bet.

 

[the Q]

Escobar has been one of the best defensive SS in baseball for a long time, now so I dunno what's silly about that.

I mean Machado is pretty clearly on the absolute downside - a very, very, very good 3B defensively. He was a +81 DRS at 3B, which was the second best at that position. For a frame of reference, Arenado was 1st at +104 DRS and Beltre was 3rd at +56 DRS.

The Orioles moved him back over to SS last year at his request - and it was a mess at first, but the Dodgers did a truck ton of work with him on the analytical side and shaded him to his right a bit more and it worked. He looked great there in LA. That's not too surprising to me though - the Orioles are kinda behind the 8-ball analytically while the Dodgers are one of the best in the sport..

And basically - he hadn't played the position in years. So there's going to be an adjustment period. But even if he's just average there - that literally catapults his value overall - especially if he's fine moving to 3B now and then. It's kinda a young man's position right now.. the only two SS's over the age of 30 are Crawford and Mercer, and they're 30 and 31. Machado is only 26. So maybe he's there for four years then hop scotches back to a position where he's a legitimate dude.

But either way - to me its nuts to say 'oh well he's bad defensively at SS so this deal isn't warranted' - because even if he's average, he's now that much more valuable - AND there's always the fallback of pushing him back to 3B where you basically have one of the top 3 defenders in the position there all of a sudden.

And I dunno - regardless of what anyone thought of him - He came in a little UNDER where he was pegged to go in the preseason. Bowden had him at $310 million. Fangraphs crowdsourcing had him at $256. MLBTR had him at 13/$390 million. Either way, the AAV always cooked out to a little over $30 million.

So to get a guy with his bat and tandem defensive versatility at a position where that's at a premium at 26 with 4-6 years of PRIME production left.. I'd say that's a pretty good bet.

I’m playing him at 3b but the positioning part is a great point.

It’s something not always in the players control. Statcast should give us so much more insight into that

 

[Towney007]

The Cherington-era Red Sox were absolutely awful at scouting and developing pitchers.

So were the Epstein-era Red Sox and the Dombrowski era Red Sox.

I mean when you think about it, Epstien's crew popped:

-Lester
-Papelbon
-Buchholz
-Bard
-Hansen
-Owens
-Anibal Sanchez
-Strickland
-Tazawa
-Wilson
-Rendon
-Pressly

Cherington draftees/guys included:
-Johnson
-Wright
-Barnes (I think. Epstein may have drafted him)
-Hembree
-Velazquez
-Albers
-Wendelken

Dombrowski's first pick has TJ and the rest isn't so hot looking.

But what's NUTS is you literally have to go all the way back to Lester to find a bonafide, front-end starter, one middle-rotation guy in Sanchez and then Buchholz/Kind of Wright/Johnson kind of to find starting caliber guys they've actually drafted. To have the kind of success they've had and NOT produce much starting pitching is something else.

That being said - if fungible relievers are your thing - there is a value to that and they pop a lot of them.

 

[Towney007]

I’m playing him at 3b but the positioning part is a great point.

It’s something not always in the players control. Statcast should give us so much more insight into that

Big time. And same holds true for a lot of guys - but dumb adjustments has also been Friedman's modus for a while now. I used to joke with my buddies that it was a matter of time before he ate all of Ryan Howard's contract in Tampa and turned him into a closer.

They literally changed Fernando Rodney's career by moving him over on the rubber a foot. Literally that was it and voila - $18 million per year closer. JP Howell was a NOBODY coming up in the minors and used to drop his shoulder about five inches on his slider. Stopped doing that and razor blades.

That's not even getting into guys like Jose Bautista, JD Martinez...

Baseball is wild, man.

 

[the Q]

Big time. And same holds true for a lot of guys - but dumb adjustments has also been Friedman's modus for a while now. I used to joke with my buddies that it was a matter of time before he ate all of Ryan Howard's contract in Tampa and turned him into a closer.

They literally changed Fernando Rodney's career by moving him over on the rubber a foot. Literally that was it and voila - $18 million per year closer. JP Howell was a NOBODY coming up in the minors and used to drop his shoulder about five inches on his slider. Stopped doing that and razor blades.

That's not even getting into guys like Jose Bautista, JD Martinez...

Baseball is wild, man.

Look at what changing to the proper swing plane ( if hear another coach saying swing down or squash the bug...) did for muncy and Taylor In la.

 

[Husky25]

So was Pom.

They were overpays via trade.

Future success being so difficult to predict in baseball is why trades and draft picks can't be fully evaluated until seasons later. Kyler Murray gave back $Millions to the A's and is entering the NFL draft for this exact reason.

Kimbrel was traded for four prospects. Three were ultra-young and traded based on their huge ceiling (Margot, Guerra, and Logan). The oldest (Asuaje) is about to enter his "prime years" and has tasted barely a sip of MLB coffee. All were blocked by not-much-older-yet-far-more developed talent (Betts, Bradley, Boegarts, Devers and the pitching staff) who, more importantly, were under Boston control for at least 4 more years.

Pomeranz was traded for Anderson Espinoza, while a huge prospect at the time, has turned out to not have thrown a competitive pitch in over two seasons.

In hindsight, while Margot looks promising and Guerra might turn into something useful, the Red Sox turned five prospects into three AL East winners and a World Series Championship, which is exactly what a deep farm system is for. They have to build it up again, but I would rather have a Duckboat parade in Boston than 23 year olds wasting away in Pawtucket.

 

[the Q]

Future success being so difficult to predict in baseball is why trades and draft picks can't be fully evaluated until seasons later. Kyler Murray gave back $Millions to the A's and is entering the NFL draft for this exact reason.

Kimbrel was traded for four prospects. Three were ultra-young and traded based on their huge ceiling (Margot, Guerra, and Logan). The oldest (Asuaje) is about to enter his "prime years" and has tasted barely a sip of MLB coffee. All were blocked by not-much-older-yet-far-more developed talent (Betts, Bradley, Boegarts, Devers and the pitching staff) who, more importantly, were under Boston control for at least 4 more years.

Pomeranz was traded for Anderson Espinoza, while a huge prospect at the time, has turned out to not have thrown a competitive pitch in over two seasons.

In hindsight, while Margot looks promising and Guerra might turn into something useful, the Red Sox turned five prospects into three AL East winners and a World Series Championship, which is exactly what a deep farm system is for. They have to build it up again, but I would rather have a Duckboat parade in Boston than 23 year olds wasting away in Pawtucket.

I’m not saying I would’ve kept them.

I would’ve reversed the Pom deal after the preller medical fiasco.

But I would’ve used them in Others areas, such as upgrading the dumpster fire at catcher or another starter.

While I can quibble about the price deal, flags fly forever.

 

[Towney007]

I’m not saying I would’ve kept them.

I would’ve reversed the Pom deal after the preller medical fiasco.

But I would’ve used them in Others areas, such as upgrading the dumpster fire at catcher or another starter.

While I can quibble about the price deal, flags fly forever.

Yeah there's not much shine you can put on the Pomeranz deal - especially since it really didn't work out for anyone. At least not yet it hasn't.

And one thing worth noting about Dombrowski - as much as he DOES run through his farm systems too quickly... he's really good at weeding out the guys who you trade away and the guys you keep - the Miguel Cabrera trade as I guess a more high profile example.

But that's the trick. Deal the ones you don't like as much/surplus for what you need. Keep the good ones.

 

[the Q]

Yeah there's not much shine you can put on the Pomeranz deal - especially since it really didn't work out for anyone. At least not yet it hasn't.

And one thing worth noting about Dombrowski - as much as he DOES run through his farm systems too quickly... he's really good at weeding out the guys who you trade away and the guys you keep - the Miguel Cabrera trade as I guess a more high profile example.

But that's the trick. Deal the ones you don't like as much/surplus for what you need. Keep the good ones.

No question. He’s rarely burned.

Best 2 guys he’s dealt were relievers IIRC.

Chad Green with the yanks and Knebel who is with MIL now.

The guy who will probably burn him the most is a guy who still hasn’t established himself in the bigs yet, but looks very promising, in wily Adames ss with the Rays.

 

[UConnSean]

Giambi (2002-2008) 7/$120M~21 fWAR 22 bWAR = $5.5M per WAR.
Teixeira (2009-2016 8/$180M ~18 fWAR 19 bWAR = $10 per WAR.

Both of which are very reasonable over the lifetime of the contract, and considering teams usually get a surplus in the early years, and then eat the later years of the deal.

Giambi's deal was arguably great IMO. His Yankee statistics: 653 G, .260/.404/.521 209 HR, 145 wRC+, 22.0 rWAR, 21.8 fWAR... pretty damn good

 

[storrsroars]

But either way - to me its nuts to say 'oh well he's bad defensively at SS so this deal isn't warranted' - because even if he's average, he's now that much more valuable - AND there's always the fallback of pushing him back to 3B where you basically have one of the top 3 defenders in the position there all of a sudden.

And I dunno - regardless of what anyone thought of him - He came in a little UNDER where he was pegged to go in the preseason. Bowden had him at $310 million. Fangraphs crowdsourcing had him at $256. MLBTR had him at 13/$390 million. Either way, the AAV always cooked out to a little over $30 million.

So to get a guy with his bat and tandem defensive versatility at a position where that's at a premium at 26 with 4-6 years of PRIME production left.. I'd say that's a pretty good bet.

Just for clarification, my responses regarding Machado's defense were in response to someone saying Machado & Harper were both top 5 players in MLB and a post stating that both were top defenders at their positions. I don't agree with either statement, but have been on board with Manny getting $30 AAV and have him in my 10 best. Harper not so much.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Giambi's deal was arguably great IMO. His Yankee statistics: 653 G, .260/.404/.521 209 HR, 145 wRC+, 22.0 rWAR, 21.8 fWAR... pretty damn good

And while injuries are part of the argument against signing guys long term, Giambi had the whole issue with the random pituitary tumor in 2004 where he played only 80 games and put up 0 fWAR. That's pretty unpredictable, as opposed to Jacoby Ellsbury injuring himself and missing a whole season with some random ailment.