OT: Machado to the Padres 10 Yr/$300M

[whaler11]

$40 mill AAV. That's a guy who's worth it. Maybe Betts too, but not as confident there.

if they are willing to talk extension they must be pretty jumpy on where the market is headed (assuming it’s true I saw it on a ticker at gym)

 

[storrsroars]

if they are willing to talk extension they must be pretty jumpy on where the market is headed (assuming it’s true I saw it on a ticker at gym)

I've only seen a tweet from a good source saying $350-$375 for 8 years.

 

[jayteeman]

Glad he's out of the American League East and as far away as possible.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I don't consider Harper a top 10 player. He's had one outstanding year and a bunch of decent ones, but nothing that suggests there would be a decent amount of surplus value over the term of his requested $300/10 deal. Machado, I'd give the money to, albeit reluctantly, if I needed someone on left side of IF.

Basically, Harper has provided >$30 mill value 2 seasons of 7. Machado has provided >$30 mill value 4 seasons out of 6.

If it were Trout was hitting FA and asking for $400 mill, I'm going to say there would be takers.

Who would you put as better than Harper? There's probably an argument that he's not top 10, but aside from Trout I wouldn't put money on any other player outproducing him the next 5 or 10 years.

 

[methodology]

Who would you put as better than Harper? There's probably an argument that he's not top 10, but aside from Trout I wouldn't put money on any other player outproducing him the next 5 or 10 years.

I think machado, Betts, kris Bryant, nolan arenado, Lindor, Bregman all have very good chances of out producing Harper over the next 5-10 years.

I would even go out on a limb to say Rendon might out produce him

 

[the Q]

Who would you put as better than Harper? There's probably an argument that he's not top 10, but aside from Trout I wouldn't put money on any other player outproducing him the next 5 or 10 years.

For 5 years?

Reasonable bets:

Lindor
Betts
Bregman
Jose Ramirez
Kris Bryant
Matt Chapman
Seager
Judge

Longer shots:

Correa (injury related questions)
Bellinger
Altuve (age related questions)

Yelich and Arenado are interesting for different reasons.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@the Q @methodology

I think you both have solid lists, those guys could certainly outproduce him. I think he's shown us that he can be the best hitter in the game over a season and I buy his talent.

Main point being he's available for just money. Every team has money and we're basically talking about a few suitors.

In the NBA teams would be clearing out cap space for years to give a guy like this a max deal.

 

[the Q]

@the Q @methodology

I think you both have solid lists, those guys could certainly outproduce him. I think he's shown us that he can be the best hitter in the game over a season and I buy his talent.

Main point being he's available for just money. Every team has money and we're basically talking about a few suitors.

In the NBA teams would be clearing out cap space for years to give a guy like this a max deal.

Harpers upside is tremendous. As high as basically anyone.

But his health and consistency are crap.

He has a very violent swing that I’m concerned how it will age, especially with the injuries.

That being said, if I was Sam Diego I would be signing both (then again as San Diego Wil Myers would’ve already been traded and Hosmer would’ve been offered literally half of wht he signed for).

There are a few teams I wouldve considered this kind of move for.

That hosmer contract is the worst I’ve seen, non Chris Davis division

 

[intlzncster]

You don't find it odd that two of the top ten players in baseball hit free agency in their mid 20s, and there are only a few teams interested?

MLB is flush with cash. The owners just refuse to spend it.

I think a lot of these large contracts are foolish. What happens when a guy gets hurt?

 

[methodology]

I think a lot of these large contracts are foolish. What happens when a guy gets hurt?

That's why I hate paying for pitching. A pitcher can blow their arm out on any pitch at anytime

Grow the arms. Buy the bats

 

[whaler11]

If you are making a list of who is going to be good five years from now pretty much don’t put second baseman on that list.

 

[intlzncster]

In the NBA teams would be clearing out cap space for years to give a guy like this a max deal.

Totally different game. One Elite player can change the course of a franchise in the NBA. Not so much in baseball.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Totally different game. One Elite player can change the course of a franchise in the NBA. Not so much in baseball.

There's maybe 3 or 4 guys in the NBA that can actually change a franchise. Look at how many guys have max deals. Better yet, look at the wide array of teams that WANT to sign guys to max deals.

 

[HooperScooper]

Yeah - What's your beef with it?

Talking Yankees alone it had Giambi, Mussina, Tanaka, Jeter, CC, Arod (first deal) and they were all good to great contacts.

Ellsbury sucks, but everyone knew at the time that was a horrible deal.

For a couple reasons. First, I don't agree that all of those they pointed out were good contracts were actually good contracts. Second, even if you agree that most of those were good contracts that's a small sample size to prove most large long term deals are worth it. I could do some research and find many long term large contracts that didn't end up turning out well. I'd bet that most $100+ million contracts in baseball weren't worth it.

Machado is going to have to be really good for 7-10 years for this contract to be worth it for the Padres. If I were a betting man I'd bet against that. But we can reevaluate this in 7-8 years and if I'm wrong I owe a beer.

 

[methodology]

There's maybe 3 or 4 guys in the NBA that can actually change a franchise. Look at how many guys have max deals. Better yet, look at the wide array of teams that WANT to sign guys to max deals.

There salary cap and caps on contract in NBA and contract structure based on years etc. Completely different setup

 

[methodology]

For a couple reasons. First, I don't agree that all of those they pointed out were good contracts were actually good contracts. Second, even if you agree that most of those were good contracts that's a small sample size to prove most large long term deals are worth it. I could do some research and find many long term large contracts that didn't end up turning out well. I'd bet that most $100+ million contracts in baseball weren't worth it.

Machado is going to have to be really good for 7-10 years for this contract to be worth it for the Padres. If I were a betting man I'd bet against that. But we can reevaluate this in 7-8 years and if I'm wrong I owe a beer.

He only has to average a 3.3 WAR season for 10 years to be worth the contract. He has averaged 4.9 WAR his 1st 7 years which included 2 years that were cut short from injury

I'd bet he out does the value of the contract but people will only remember the final 2-3years where he underperformed his yearly salary

 

[HooperScooper]

He only has to average a 3.3 WAR season for 10 years to be worth the contract. He has averaged 4.9 WAR his 1st 7 years which included 2 years that were cut short from injury

I'd bet he out does the value of the contract but people will only remember the final 2-3years where he underperformed his yearly salary

That's all you have to do to be worth $30 million a year for 10 years? I would think the bar would be higher for that kind of money.

 

[intlzncster]

There's maybe 3 or 4 guys in the NBA that can actually change a franchise. Look at how many guys have max deals. Better yet, look at the wide array of teams that WANT to sign guys to max deals.

There's def more than 4. Any of the Top 10 would do it instantly.

But, that's not what I was saying. I'm saying you add one high end player to an already good team, and it changes the course of the team entirely. There's just so many less guys involved in the game. In the NBA, if you don't have a couple max guys, you're not even fielding a real team.

It takes less guys to affect outcome.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Ok I give up. There's nothing wrong with the majority of MLB owners passing up the opportunity to sign two potential Hall of Fame players for the entire prime of their careers in spite of rising revenues and the game being in fantastic financial shape.

 

[whaler11]

Ok I give up. There's nothing wrong with the majority of MLB owners passing up the opportunity to sign two potential Hall of Fame players for the entire prime of their careers in spite of rising revenues and the game being in fantastic financial shape.

If they don’t go on strike the sport is going to lose a lot of ground it can’t afford to lose.

This round of collusion is so short sighted.

 

[T-Squared]

Machado has a pretty good chance of being worth this deal.

No player is REMOTELY worth that. Huge long term deals are notorious for very poor ROI. Machado is a good player at best: he’s a lifetime .282 hitter with a .335 on-base percentage and a .487 slugging percentage who hasn’t won an MVP in five years of 600+ ABs.

I don’t begrudge Machado getting paid - more power too him. But his performance to-date doesn’t warrant the payday he got. It’s highly likely that his next 10 years will under deliver on this contract. Mightily.

 

[storrsroars]

That's all you have to do to be worth $30 million a year for 10 years? I would think the bar would be higher for that kind of money.

Technically, yes, that's all one would have to do. However, savvy GMs will still look for excess value, otherwise the asset is basically untradeable. For instance, Trout at $40 million AAV over 8 years would still be reasonably expected to provide 55-60 fWAR through the term of that contract. You would be foolish to pay that if you only expected Trout to provide 40-ish WAR over that deal. Machado should exceed his contract value by a small margin, while Harper is less likely to do so, IMO.

Who would you put as better than Harper? There's probably an argument that he's not top 10, but aside from Trout I wouldn't put money on any other player outproducing him the next 5 or 10 years.

I'd wager that Trout, Betts, Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Yelich, Bryant, Machado, Corey Seager, Judge, Bregman and Arenado (all currently 26-27 y.o.) all outperform Harper over the next decade. Harper's defense is on the verge of making him close to unplayable in the field. He may well end up a DH before long.

 

[T-Squared]

Every team in MLB could afford this contract. This is pretty much the same deal ARod got 18 years ago. Revenues have exploded but contracts have not.

True. But Machado isn’t anywhere close to the player that Rodriguez was during his first five years. ARod hit over .300 four times (with a high of .358), slugged 40+ homers three times and drove in 100+ runs four times. Machado has yet to hit .300 or crack 40 homers, and he drove in 100 runs just once.

 

[Rich]

We all know how this ends for San Diego...

In three years, Preller will be fired and Machado will be traded to the Yankees along with 60 million for three or four low-A pitching prospects.

Lead pipe lock...take it to the window LOL.

 

[FlippinCrazy!]

yeah its collusion

Ur smoked