OT: Machado to the Padres 10 Yr/$300M

[the Q]

yeah its collusion

It’s draconian tax penalties and no floor.

Cause the mlbpa did a horrible job

 

[whaler11]

Why did the Padres break ranks? Why didn't somebody else?

relative to the cost of a marginal win the padres got a steal.

if you want to pretend that this isnt collusion... cool

 

[whaler11]

It’s draconian tax penalties and no floor.

Cause the mlbpa did a horrible job

yep they should strike tomorrow and trade a cap for a floor

 

['nuff sed]

Glad he’s outta the league

What’s the over under in how many bench clearers or beanball wars he will incite in NL this season ?

 

[navery12]

I'd rather have a guy hustle 100% of the time. You can't predict what's going to happen, and I'm not sure that picking your spots when to hustle or not will lead to better overall outcomes. In sports, it's pretty difficult to turn the switch on and off, and still perform at your highest level (especially in the big moments). And one play could mean the difference to advancing or not, even though you wouldn't know it at the time.

I'm interested to see how he plays out this contract. If he ends up truly giving a crap or not. You just don't know how guys are going to react to big money.

But some of his comments would raise red flags for me. I like hyper competitive types, who'll try to get an edge in every single situation, but that's just me.

I'd take a guy like Machado who occasionally jogs to 1st over a guy who hustles every time 100 times out of a 100. He has more talent in his pinky than 90% of baseball, and I'll pay that guy any time he wants to play for my team

 

[ucp990411]

Dodgers will win the NL West by 8 games and the best two center fielders in baseball play in LA

 

[ConnHuskBask]

How? There's nothing stopping most teams from throwing their hat in the ring.

They deemed it not worth it at that amount of money and years. Probably right.

You don't find it odd that two of the top ten players in baseball hit free agency in their mid 20s, and there are only a few teams interested?

MLB is flush with cash. The owners just refuse to spend it.

 

[storrsroars]

You don't find it odd that two of the top ten players in baseball hit free agency in their mid 20s, and there are only a few teams interested?

MLB is flush with cash. The owners just refuse to spend it.

I don't consider Harper a top 10 player. He's had one outstanding year and a bunch of decent ones, but nothing that suggests there would be a decent amount of surplus value over the term of his requested $300/10 deal. Machado, I'd give the money to, albeit reluctantly, if I needed someone on left side of IF.

Basically, Harper has provided >$30 mill value 2 seasons of 7. Machado has provided >$30 mill value 4 seasons out of 6.

If it were Trout was hitting FA and asking for $400 mill, I'm going to say there would be takers.

 

[whaler11]

I don't consider Harper a top 10 player. He's had one outstanding year and a bunch of decent ones, but nothing that suggests there would be a decent amount of surplus value over the term of his requested $300/10 deal. Machado, I'd give the money to, albeit reluctantly, if I needed someone on left side of IF.

Basically, Harper has provided >$30 mill value 2 seasons of 7. Machado has provided >$30 mill value 4 seasons out of 6.

If it were Trout was hitting FA and asking for $400 mill, I'm going to say there would be takers.

and did you see the news today his guys are already talking extension with angels. fa after 2020.

 

[storrsroars]

and did you see the news today his guys are already talking extension with angels. fa after 2020.

$40 mill AAV. That's a guy who's worth it. Maybe Betts too, but not as confident there.

 

[whaler11]

$40 mill AAV. That's a guy who's worth it. Maybe Betts too, but not as confident there.

if they are willing to talk extension they must be pretty jumpy on where the market is headed (assuming it’s true I saw it on a ticker at gym)

 

[storrsroars]

if they are willing to talk extension they must be pretty jumpy on where the market is headed (assuming it’s true I saw it on a ticker at gym)

I've only seen a tweet from a good source saying $350-$375 for 8 years.

 

[jayteeman]

Glad he's out of the American League East and as far away as possible.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I don't consider Harper a top 10 player. He's had one outstanding year and a bunch of decent ones, but nothing that suggests there would be a decent amount of surplus value over the term of his requested $300/10 deal. Machado, I'd give the money to, albeit reluctantly, if I needed someone on left side of IF.

Basically, Harper has provided >$30 mill value 2 seasons of 7. Machado has provided >$30 mill value 4 seasons out of 6.

If it were Trout was hitting FA and asking for $400 mill, I'm going to say there would be takers.

Who would you put as better than Harper? There's probably an argument that he's not top 10, but aside from Trout I wouldn't put money on any other player outproducing him the next 5 or 10 years.

 

[methodology]

Who would you put as better than Harper? There's probably an argument that he's not top 10, but aside from Trout I wouldn't put money on any other player outproducing him the next 5 or 10 years.

I think machado, Betts, kris Bryant, nolan arenado, Lindor, Bregman all have very good chances of out producing Harper over the next 5-10 years.

I would even go out on a limb to say Rendon might out produce him

 

[the Q]

Who would you put as better than Harper? There's probably an argument that he's not top 10, but aside from Trout I wouldn't put money on any other player outproducing him the next 5 or 10 years.

For 5 years?

Reasonable bets:

Lindor
Betts
Bregman
Jose Ramirez
Kris Bryant
Matt Chapman
Seager
Judge

Longer shots:

Correa (injury related questions)
Bellinger
Altuve (age related questions)

Yelich and Arenado are interesting for different reasons.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@the Q @methodology

I think you both have solid lists, those guys could certainly outproduce him. I think he's shown us that he can be the best hitter in the game over a season and I buy his talent.

Main point being he's available for just money. Every team has money and we're basically talking about a few suitors.

In the NBA teams would be clearing out cap space for years to give a guy like this a max deal.

 

[the Q]

@the Q @methodology

I think you both have solid lists, those guys could certainly outproduce him. I think he's shown us that he can be the best hitter in the game over a season and I buy his talent.

Main point being he's available for just money. Every team has money and we're basically talking about a few suitors.

In the NBA teams would be clearing out cap space for years to give a guy like this a max deal.

Harpers upside is tremendous. As high as basically anyone.

But his health and consistency are crap.

He has a very violent swing that I’m concerned how it will age, especially with the injuries.

That being said, if I was Sam Diego I would be signing both (then again as San Diego Wil Myers would’ve already been traded and Hosmer would’ve been offered literally half of wht he signed for).

There are a few teams I wouldve considered this kind of move for.

That hosmer contract is the worst I’ve seen, non Chris Davis division

 

[intlzncster]

You don't find it odd that two of the top ten players in baseball hit free agency in their mid 20s, and there are only a few teams interested?

MLB is flush with cash. The owners just refuse to spend it.

I think a lot of these large contracts are foolish. What happens when a guy gets hurt?

 

[methodology]

I think a lot of these large contracts are foolish. What happens when a guy gets hurt?

That's why I hate paying for pitching. A pitcher can blow their arm out on any pitch at anytime

Grow the arms. Buy the bats

 

[whaler11]

If you are making a list of who is going to be good five years from now pretty much don’t put second baseman on that list.

 

[intlzncster]

In the NBA teams would be clearing out cap space for years to give a guy like this a max deal.

Totally different game. One Elite player can change the course of a franchise in the NBA. Not so much in baseball.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Totally different game. One Elite player can change the course of a franchise in the NBA. Not so much in baseball.

There's maybe 3 or 4 guys in the NBA that can actually change a franchise. Look at how many guys have max deals. Better yet, look at the wide array of teams that WANT to sign guys to max deals.

 

[HooperScooper]

Yeah - What's your beef with it?

Talking Yankees alone it had Giambi, Mussina, Tanaka, Jeter, CC, Arod (first deal) and they were all good to great contacts.

Ellsbury sucks, but everyone knew at the time that was a horrible deal.

For a couple reasons. First, I don't agree that all of those they pointed out were good contracts were actually good contracts. Second, even if you agree that most of those were good contracts that's a small sample size to prove most large long term deals are worth it. I could do some research and find many long term large contracts that didn't end up turning out well. I'd bet that most $100+ million contracts in baseball weren't worth it.

Machado is going to have to be really good for 7-10 years for this contract to be worth it for the Padres. If I were a betting man I'd bet against that. But we can reevaluate this in 7-8 years and if I'm wrong I owe a beer.

 

[methodology]

There's maybe 3 or 4 guys in the NBA that can actually change a franchise. Look at how many guys have max deals. Better yet, look at the wide array of teams that WANT to sign guys to max deals.

There salary cap and caps on contract in NBA and contract structure based on years etc. Completely different setup

 

[methodology]

For a couple reasons. First, I don't agree that all of those they pointed out were good contracts were actually good contracts. Second, even if you agree that most of those were good contracts that's a small sample size to prove most large long term deals are worth it. I could do some research and find many long term large contracts that didn't end up turning out well. I'd bet that most $100+ million contracts in baseball weren't worth it.

Machado is going to have to be really good for 7-10 years for this contract to be worth it for the Padres. If I were a betting man I'd bet against that. But we can reevaluate this in 7-8 years and if I'm wrong I owe a beer.

He only has to average a 3.3 WAR season for 10 years to be worth the contract. He has averaged 4.9 WAR his 1st 7 years which included 2 years that were cut short from injury

I'd bet he out does the value of the contract but people will only remember the final 2-3years where he underperformed his yearly salary

 

[HooperScooper]

He only has to average a 3.3 WAR season for 10 years to be worth the contract. He has averaged 4.9 WAR his 1st 7 years which included 2 years that were cut short from injury

I'd bet he out does the value of the contract but people will only remember the final 2-3years where he underperformed his yearly salary

That's all you have to do to be worth $30 million a year for 10 years? I would think the bar would be higher for that kind of money.

 

[intlzncster]

There's maybe 3 or 4 guys in the NBA that can actually change a franchise. Look at how many guys have max deals. Better yet, look at the wide array of teams that WANT to sign guys to max deals.

There's def more than 4. Any of the Top 10 would do it instantly.

But, that's not what I was saying. I'm saying you add one high end player to an already good team, and it changes the course of the team entirely. There's just so many less guys involved in the game. In the NBA, if you don't have a couple max guys, you're not even fielding a real team.

It takes less guys to affect outcome.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Ok I give up. There's nothing wrong with the majority of MLB owners passing up the opportunity to sign two potential Hall of Fame players for the entire prime of their careers in spite of rising revenues and the game being in fantastic financial shape.

 

[whaler11]

Ok I give up. There's nothing wrong with the majority of MLB owners passing up the opportunity to sign two potential Hall of Fame players for the entire prime of their careers in spite of rising revenues and the game being in fantastic financial shape.

If they don’t go on strike the sport is going to lose a lot of ground it can’t afford to lose.

This round of collusion is so short sighted.