Let's Talk Iowa State...

[HuskyHawk]

I can't imagine Facey will be called upon to contribute meaningful minutes. I agree with your lineup for spots when they can have LK guard Kane for spells.

I see limited minutes for Nolan, we either go small for long stretches or Brimah plays the 5.

I really think Boatright will have his minutes cut in favor of Samuel, mostly for defense. They will post against Boat all day long. I suspect you will see Boat in the game with Brimah, to ensure there is some coverage for the rim.

 

[tzznandrew]

Don't under estimate ISU's size when it comes to rebounding. ISU is 23rd in the country in rebounding.

Pace-adjusted? Because, I would guess, with the amount of shots you guys get up, you'd get more total rebounds.

If it's 23rd pace-adjusted, then it's really impressive. Did Niang rebound a lot?

 

[caw]

Don't under estimate ISU's size when it comes to rebounding. ISU is 23rd in the country in rebounding. Very few teams outrebounded the Clones. Even teams with a huge height advantage likeUNC, KU, Baylor, Michigan, Texas, etc. Ejim and Hogue were 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in rebounding and Ejim led the league last year. Even with the size advantage and no Niang, UNC only outrebounded ISU by 1. I worry more about UConn's defense than anything

I think it's more like UConn fans are resigned to losing the rebounding battle most nights so we don't worry about it. It's rarely been the reason UConn has lost a game. Certainly a factor but not the biggest IMO.

Btw what are ISUs rebounding percentage numbers? ranking? Total rebounds, like total assists or total points can be largely influenced by pace. ISU plays at a fast pace relative to UConn. Not that UConn is slow as a team. Just more on the deliberate side of things.

 

[Walker11]

I really think Boatright will have his minutes cut in favor of Samuel, mostly for defense. They will post against Boat all day long. I suspect you will see Boat in the game with Brimah, to ensure there is some coverage for the rim.

It sounds like we are going to see a lot of Kane as the 3rd guard, alongside 2 of Morris/Long/Thomas. Kane is the only one who should scare us as a post up threat.

We will likely be running Boat and Bazz, with Kromah/Samuel, Giffey and DD. Kromah will spend a lot of time on Kane. This is also by far our best offensive lineup. It will be interesting to see how early and often we downsize to match up with them.

 

[tazclone]

Pace-adjusted? Because, I would guess, with the amount of shots you guys get up, you'd get more total rebounds.

If it's 23rd pace-adjusted, then it's really impressive. Did Niang rebound a lot?

Niang averaged about 5-6 per game. I think. Edozie is a better rebounder than Niang. Niang has a 1" vert. That is not pace adjusted. I believe we were 4th in the Big 12 in rebounding margin. Behind Texas, KU and KSU. All of which we outrebounded or matched head to head. We had poor rebounding games against iowa, OU and West Virginia this year. Otherwise we outrebounded our opponents or lost it by 1-2. Not what you expect from a team whose tallest player is 6'8" Ejim and Hogue are energy guys, board crashers and garbage guys. More like Dennis Rodman(not saying they are him) than your typical big body box out guy. They simply love to rebound

 

[HuskyHawk]

Don't under estimate ISU's size when it comes to rebounding. ISU is 23rd in the country in rebounding. Very few teams outrebounded the Clones. Even teams with a huge height advantage likeUNC, KU, Baylor, Michigan, Texas, etc. Ejim and Hogue were 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in rebounding and Ejim led the league last year. Even with the size advantage and no Niang, UNC only outrebounded ISU by 1. I worry more about UConn's defense than anything

I understand, but the real issue I think ISU faces, is how well do they rebound when the opponent has two guys at 6'7 and 6'9 that hit over 40% from three? Will they pull thier big guys all the way from the rim? If they do, how well do they recover and rebound?

The thing UConn has done well when it plays well, is to draw those forwards out to guard the three, use dribble penetration and create either layups by the guards or passes to the center (Nolan/Brimah). If you collapse, we kick it out to Giffey or Daniels for a three. The only team that really takes this away is Louisville. They can literally guard man to man and just not get beat. I think UConn can score and will be very hard for ISU to defend. I worry about UConn defending ISU. Physical, slashing teams cause UConn problems on D, and we don't defend the three very well, being too quick to help on the inside.

 

[tazclone]

Kane and Morris will both play po

It sounds like we are going to see a lot of Kane as the 3rd guard, alongside 2 of Morris/Long/Thomas. Kane is the only one who should scare us as a post up threat.

We will likely be running Boat and Bazz, with Kromah/Samuel, Giffey and DD. Kromah will spend a lot of time on Kane. This is also by far our best offensive lineup. It will be interesting to see how early and often we downsize to match up with them.

Kane and Morris will both play point and both play the 2. Depends what Fred wants to attack as the matchup. There is no doubt in my mind you will see Kane down on the blocks posting up UConn's smaller guards. He has done that a lot this season. Throw Kromah on Kane and then you have to have someone athletic on Ejim and on Hogue. If Kromah is on Kane then Kane will isolate and penetrate.

Don't take this wrong. I am not saying these will be unstoppable. Just saying what Fred will do based on past games. Fred loves to attack mismatches with spacing.

 

[Tenspro2002]

2 things we can't do:

1. Have another slow start where we fall down 8-10 points.

Unfortunately, that's just how this team rolls. Unlike teams in years past, we don't have a dominant strategy where we can impose our will on the other team and force them to react to us. Frankly, our players don't have the personality for that sort of attitude either.

Fortunately, we've gotten good at reacting and adjusting.

That said, it would be nice to jump out to a 15-4 lead for a change.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I am a bit concerned by the fact that in both tournament games to date we started very slowly. A few people have pointed out that it could be deadly to fall behind early against ISU and I agree fully.

My biggest concern however is that a) ISU can score in bunches and b) we have had a bad habit that we've even brought to this tournament where we have lapses when we have a big lead. I could see a scenario where with eight minutes left in the game were are up by eighteen only to have ISU cut it to four with three minutes left. If the situation arrives where we do have a good sized lead in the second half we will need to step on their throats and we will need to behave as if it is a two possession game until we hear the buzzer.

 

[Gringo]

This sounds a lot like OU except Brimah is bigger than anyone they have. We tend to struggle with teams that matchu up with our size and speed. Can they pound the ball inside to Brimah or does he need the penetration and assist to score.

UConn runs more plays into the post through Daniels than Brimah. Brimah is improving but Daniels is more polished right now. UConn tries to get Daniels shots early in the game, either through the post or from 3 to get him involved early. If Daniels gets going he can be really dangerous. He dropped 30 against Memphis earlier this year. He sprained his ankle which limited him in the middle of the season but he is 100% now and has been playing better the last few weeks.

 

[tazclone]

I understand, but the real issue I think ISU faces, is how well do they rebound when the opponent has two guys at 6'7 and 6'9 that hit over 40% from three? Will they pull thier big guys all the way from the rim? If they do, how well do they recover and rebound?

The thing UConn has done well when it plays well, is to draw those forwards out to guard the three, use dribble penetration and create either layups by the guards or passes to the center (Nolan/Brimah). If you collapse, we kick it out to Giffey or Daniels for a three. The only team that really takes this away is Louisville. They can literally guard man to man and just not get beat. I think UConn can score and will be very hard for ISU to defend. I worry about UConn defending ISU. Physical, slashing teams cause UConn problems on D, and we don't defend the three very well, being too quick to help on the inside.

our bigs are not big so they defend the perimeter well. The only smaller team we did not rebound well against was OU but they have a stud rebounder in Spangler. They beat Isu on the boards in their house but not in Ames.
Ejim is 6'6" and would be a three at any school but he plays the four. He can guard the 3/4. Hogue is also 6'6" and he will guard the 4/5. He is a quicker jumper than Ejim.
What you describe is very similar to OU and OSU. We went 4-5 against those teams with two OT wins against OSU and a loss at OU. OSU had Smart, Forte, Brown and Nash.

 

[tazclone]

I am a bit concerned by the fact that in both tournament games to date we started very slowly. A few people have pointed out that it could be deadly to fall behind early against ISU and I agree fully.

My biggest concern however is that a) ISU can score in bunches and b) we have had a bad habit that we've even brought to this tournament where we have lapses when we have a big lead. I could see a scenario where with eight minutes left in the game were are up by eighteen only to have ISU cut it to four with three minutes left. If the situation arrives where we do have a good sized lead in the second half we will need to step on their throats and we will need to behave as if it is a two possession game until we hear the buzzer.

ISU went 1 for 17 to start the game against Baylor in the 12 championship. That is a slow start

 

[3RingsCT]

What worries me is 1.) rebounding and second chance shots for ISU and 2.) will the quickness and ball handling skills of Napier and Boatright be able to trump the size and strength of Long and Kane? UConn strives off of ball screens and dribble penetration with kick-outs to the perimeter if a shot in the lane is not there. UL was outstanding at taking that away from us all three times. If ISU takes that away, we might get run out of MSG.

 

[Rico444]

Kane and Morris will both play po

Kane and Morris will both play point and both play the 2. Depends what Fred wants to attack as the matchup. There is no doubt in my mind you will see Kane down on the blocks posting up UConn's smaller guards. He has done that a lot this season. Throw Kromah on Kane and then you have to have someone athletic on Ejim and on Hogue. If Kromah is on Kane then Kane will isolate and penetrate.

Don't take this wrong. I am not saying these will be unstoppable. Just saying what Fred will do based on past games. Fred loves to attack mismatches with spacing.

I'm pretty excited for the coaching matchup. Ollie has gotten a better feel for what works with this roster as the season as gone on, and did a great job adjusting to what Jay Wright was trying to do in the last game. Should be fun seeing these two great coaches play chess with each other.

 

[caw]

Niang averaged about 5-6 per game. I think. Edozie is a better rebounder than Niang. Niang has a 1" vert. That is not pace adjusted. I believe we were 4th in the Big 12 in rebounding margin. Behind Texas, KU and KSU. All of which we outrebounded or matched head to head. We had poor rebounding games against iowa, OU and West Virginia this year. Otherwise we outrebounded our opponents or lost it by 1-2. Not what you expect from a team whose tallest player is 6'8" Ejim and Hogue are energy guys, board crashers and garbage guys. More like Dennis Rodman(not saying they are him) than your typical big body box out guy. They simply love to rebound

From what I have seen:

ISU rebounds 73.6% of on its defensive end and 26.5 on the offensive end. Inversely opponents grab 73.5% on the defensive end an 26.4 on the offensive end.

That's not bad.

ISU also has a high shooting percentage at near 48 which can influence total rebounds. It lowers the total available by opponent. On the DR side That plus ISU holds opponents to a shooting percentage of 42ish percent. Means there are usually 6 extra misses per 100 shots on ISUs defensive side (which as expected ISU has a rebounding advantage). Now that's not the only thing that can add to the rebounding margin, but it plays a decent sized role, giving ISU a + 2.64 advantage per 100 shots by ISU and 100 by opponent. Now even ISU doesn't get 100 shots a game but you can see how raw totals don't tell the full picture here, right?

UConn is at 29.3 OR and 69.2 DR. Or gives up 30.8 and 70.7. That's not good.

There are of course other factors to consider, for UConn. UConn has a 10.4% block percentage (higher than Kansas' 10.0). Higher block percentages usually mean more OR, either by the block going out of bounds, or the weak side help not coming to block out. For reference, ISU is at 4.6%.

 

[Rico444]

What worries me is 1.) rebounding and second chance shots for ISU and 2.) will the quickness and ball handling skills of Napier and Boatright be able to trump the size and strength of Long and Kane? UConn strives off of ball screens and dribble penetration with kick-outs to the perimeter if a shot in the lane is not there. UL was outstanding at taking that away from us all three times. If ISU takes that away, we might get run out of MSG.

ISU is ranked around 50 in total defense by KenPom. Louisville and Cincinnati, the two teams that have had the most success shutting down our offense this year, are top 10 defenses. Not saying we're going to be able to score easily, but our biggest worry should be getting back in transition and their guards' strength against Shabazz and Boatright.

 

[tazclone]

What worries me is 1.) rebounding and second chance shots for ISU and 2.) will the quickness and ball handling skills of Napier and Boatright be able to trump the size and strength of Long and Kane? UConn strives off of ball screens and dribble penetration with kick-outs to the perimeter if a shot in the lane is not there. UL was outstanding at taking that away from us all three times. If ISU takes that away, we might get run out of MSG.

Morris will see more minutes than Long and is the best defender of the three. Long and Kane are both decent defenders but Kane can get lazy on the defensive end. ISU tends to give up the layup if beaten off the dribble rather than allow the kick out for a three unless they get killed with it. A lot of times they will divide the court and force you where they have help or force the across court pass to the open guy and defend that pass.

 

[Marat]

Slow starts? Sounds very familiar! So I would assume that we can expect a very exciting second half

ISU is ranked around 50 in total defense by KenPom. Louisville and Cincinnati, the two teams that have had the most success shutting down our offense this year, are top 10 defenses. Not saying we're going to be able to score easily, but our biggest worry should be getting back in transition and their guards' strength against Shabazz and Boatright.

I agree UConn needs to be prepared on transition defense. When Boat/Bazz attack and if they miss, watch out for leak outs from the ISU guards. If we can minimize these transition baskets that will help greatly. I was also worried about this before the Nova game, but it was not an issue.

 

[tazclone]

From what I have seen:

ISU rebounds 73.6% of on its defensive end and 26.5 on the offensive end. Inversely opponents grab 73.5% on the defensive end an 26.4 on the offensive end.

That's not bad.

ISU also has a high shooting percentage at near 48 which can influence total rebounds. It lowers the total available by opponent. On the DR side That plus ISU holds opponents to a shooting percentage of 42ish percent. Means there are usually 6 extra misses per 100 shots on ISUs defensive side (which as expected ISU has a rebounding advantage). Now that's not the only thing that can add to the rebounding margin, but it plays a decent sized role, giving ISU a + 2.64 advantage per 100 shots by ISU and 100 by opponent. Now even ISU doesn't get 100 shots a game but you can see how raw totals don't tell the full picture here, right?

UConn is at 29.3 OR and 69.2 DR. Or gives up 30.8 and 70.7. That's not good.

There are of course other factors to consider, for UConn. UConn has a 10.4% block percentage (higher than Kansas' 10.0). Higher block percentages usually mean more OR, either by the block going out of bounds, or the weak side help not coming to block out. For reference, ISU is at 4.6%.

Good info! Another thing that helps ISU is people will hurry back on defense to take away ISU's ability to run therefore leaving fewer rebounders. ISU doesn't just push pace by running though. They will do it by taking quick open shots. Fred is a shooter and believes an open shot is a good shot

 

[3RingsCT]

ISU is ranked around 50 in total defense by KenPom. Louisville and Cincinnati, the two teams that have had the most success shutting down our offense this year, are top 10 defenses. Not saying we're going to be able to score easily, but our biggest worry should be getting back in transition and their guards' strength against Shabazz and Boatright.

According to KenPom, we will be the toughest defense ISU has faced all year too.

As long as we can hit jump shots, we should score ok. We need to keep their score down. You are right about their transition game. That was once the strength of a prototypical Calhoun team....run, run, run...

 

[tazclone]

ISU is ranked around 50 in total defense by KenPom. Louisville and Cincinnati, the two teams that have had the most success shutting down our offense this year, are top 10 defenses. Not saying we're going to be able to score easily, but our biggest worry should be getting back in transition and their guards' strength against Shabazz and Boatright.

What does Kenpom use to determine total defense? Just curious

 

[Rico444]

What does Kenpom use to determine total defense? Just curious

Someone else here is going to have to answer that; I don't have a subscription, but I know they use a bunch of advanced statistics.

 

[James]

Boatright wont be sitting on the bench because of 'matchups'. Its not just one person that will see time on Kane, there will be multiple blue jerseys who get a chance. Look kane is not lebron james, he basically inferior in every category to napier. other than rebounding. We just can't let them get comfortable offensively, I'll live with long 2's.

 

[tzznandrew]

What does Kenpom use to determine total defense? Just curious

Points allowed per possession, adjusted for shedule difficulty. The math is more complicated than that, but that's the gist.

 

[MileHighFish]

I have a feeling you can throw stats out the window for this game. UCONN will have a ravenous fan base at MSG and ISU will need to avoid the cold shooting periods they sometimes seem to run in to.

My feeling is ISU can win if it can hit their 3's, Kane is able to post up and/or get some slashing buckets eventually drawing a double team allowing the kick out baskets. Kane can get himself into foul trouble as he tends to drive and look to initiate contact in hopes of drawing the foul. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. He (Kane) seems to focus more on contact rather than looking to make the basket at times.

My useless stat of the day is: Iowa State is 24-1 when wearing their white home uniform

 

[tzznandrew]

Boatright wont be sitting on the bench because of 'matchups'. Its not just one person that will see time on Kane, there will be multiple blue jerseys who get a chance. Look kane is not lebron james, he basically inferior in every category to napier. other than rebounding. We just can't let them get comfortable offensively, I'll live with long 2's.

He's a very good player...but yeah, people are treating him like a god. I think Kromah can cause him some difficulties. I think we'll see a lot of Napier-Boat-Kromah-Giffey-Daniels...with Brimah and Samuel being the chief guys getting the other minutes.

Kane and Ejim are very good, and can definitely do damage. Hell, one or both could play better than Napier in this game. But Napier has played against bigger players pretty much the entire year in putting up his numbers...and his percentages include the slump he went through when he hurt his hand.

Iowa State lost 7 games. Granted, their conference was better than ours, but it's not like our guys are bums. We had an embarrasing loss to Houston...they had their brains beaten in by West Virginia (WVU is in a whole better category than Houston, but the game was a huge embarrasment for ISU).

 

[MileHighFish]

Points allowed per possession, adjusted for shedule difficulty. The math is more complicated than that, but that's the gist.

Just thinking about that kind of math makes my head hurt!

 

[tzznandrew]

Just thinking about that kind of math makes my head hurt!

There's a reason why I avoided putting the calculation...hell, since he does it from a box score, he has to have an equation for possessions. Just that hurt my head, and that wasn't even how he figured out schedule difficulty.

 

[tazclone]

I'm pretty excited for the coaching matchup. Ollie has gotten a better feel for what works with this roster as the season as gone on, and did a great job adjusting to what Jay Wright was trying to do in the last game. Should be fun seeing these two great coaches play chess with each other.

Agree 100%.

 

[MileHighFish]

He's a very good player...but yeah, people are treating him like a god.

Kane and Ejim are very good, and can definitely do damage. Hell, one or both could play better than Napier in this game. But Napier has played against bigger players pretty much the entire year in putting up his numbers...and his percentages include the slump he went through when he hurt his hand.

Iowa State lost 7 games. Granted, their conference was better than ours, but it's not like our guys are bums. We had an embarrasing loss to Houston...they had their brains beaten in by West Virginia (WVU is in a whole better category than Houston, but the game was a huge embarrasment for ISU).

The thing with Kane is that typically Coach Hoiberg is typically able to exploit a matchup against shorter, smaller defenders by utilizing Kane's ability to initiate contact and get shots. If ISU can get UCONN (or vice versa for that matter) into early foul trouble, it will really impact the game. Especially in the case of Iowa State. As you know, they have a very short bench....