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Let's Talk Iowa State...

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tazclone said:
You assume Hogue and Ejim can't score down low and kick out. That is a silly assumption. But hey UConn wins going away because Niang is out.
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Ejim certainly scares me. You don't score 48 points in a college game unless you're very good.



You can see he has some post moves, for sure.
 
Honestly, I think this game is a push and whoever can dictate the offense will end up winning it. That being said, as someone who has watched a lot of Cyclone games, here's some thoughts for you (sorry in advance for the long post):

1 - As much as it is being talked about on TV, I highly doubt you'll see a Kane/Napier match up on the defensive end. Kane is much bigger, which causes problems for both. Napier could drive on him until he racks up the fouls or Kane could over power and do the same. Neither coach wants their top guy out of the game due to touch fouls. Instead I think you'll see ISU try and contain, or at least irritate, Napier with Morris/Long. Morris is relatively the same size, a little taller and a little smaller, but Long is 6-4 and isn't a bad defender. It would shock me if you didn't see those two guys try and force Napier into long shots and assists, containing the driving that would get draw fouls. Against Baylor they played a diamond and one, assigning Long to shadow Heslip constantly, allowing the zone to do the rest. Granted Heslip is just a cannon, but it took him out of the game and Baylor, who is bigger than UConn struggled to convert and rebound. I'd imagine they'd do something similar or even double team Napier to slow him down a bit. Or, they could go the other way like they did with Marcus Smart. Just let Napier get his 25 points and clamp down on everyone else. Smart is more like Kane than Napier though, but ISU will try and either limit Napier or his options, finding mismatches somewhere else.

2 - It is not great, by any stretch of the imagination, but don't underestimate ISU's defense either. It has really increased significantly since the WVU loss, where they didn't play any D. Even with those midseason lapses, if you look at points per game, UConn is around 71/63, where ISU is 83/74. ISU is allergic to working the clock. Every missed shot will be run on and any open shot is taken, regardless of timing. ISU averages 74 plays per game and had 80 PosPG vs UNC, however only averaging 66 PosPG over the past three (see Baylor's D that crushed Creighton and is averaging 60 PosPG over the last three, 66 over all). They will run until they collapse. This gives them an average of about 1.12 pts per possession and they give up 1 pts per possession. UConn averages only six less possessions at 68.4 PosPG, but has been averaging up to 70-71 over the past three. That gives them a 1.03 points per possession and 0.92 points per possession allowed. Basically its the exact same spread, just a different speed. While ISU is not a shut down D team, their higher points per game is more indicative of loving to run, than being unable to guard. And the more possessions UConn allows, the better the odds get for ISU. They've only had one game all year where they scored less than 70 against a pretty tough schedule. They're holding teams to 41% shooting, compared to UConn's 39%. If UConn can hold them to 39% by taking bad shots possessions won't matter.

3 - They are not deep. This is the biggest issue with this team made exponentially worse by losing Niang. Edozie/Gibson will be used sparingly to clog up the paint so you'll pretty much see Ejim, Houge, Kane, Morris, then a combo of Long/Thomas (both 6-4 shooters) to fill in the gaps. Someone mentioned earlier they are a second half team, that's because they play timidly in the first to avoid fouls and aggressively in the second with them to burn. They've found ways to out rebound much larger front lines (they had a +10 rebound advantage against Baylor and only a -1 against UNC who out rebounded Providence by 20), but if you get them into foul trouble it shuts down the entire works. They were starting to dominate UNC, then Kane drew his third and he had to play less aggressively after. Almost immediately UNC went on a big run and swapped it from being down to being up eight. If UConn goes for jumpers they play into ISU's hands because they are an aggressive rebounding team for their size. If UConn slashes successfully, especially with taller forwards, they could take them out of their game. ISU may be able to survive losing Kane, since they have another 6-4 shooter off the bench, but losing Houge or Ejim could be a death knell with Niang already out. Daniels, Giffy, and Kromah will need to assert themselves. I'm not sure about Brimah. ISU shut Austin from Baylor down in the paint, making him shoot outside jumpers, which he's pretty good at. So I don't think just being tall is going to be that useful. Someone like Embiid, who is tall and aggressive on the glass, gives them fits. Other forwards who had their way with Iowa State are Nash from OSU, Wiggens from Kansas, and Cory Jefferson from Baylor; all 6-9 slashers who can shoot a consistent 10 footer.

4 - Their style of play is slash and shoot. They lead the nation in assists per game. (Kane averages 7 per game and Morris averaged a freakish 6.5 assist to turnover ratio in B12 play) Everyone on the team looks for the open guy and they space very well. If the defense collapses on the drive, the open shooter will take it. All of the top seven will shoot the open three and Ejim will hover around the three point line like Kane to drive or shoot depending on the D. If the defense doesn't collapse they're going to the bucket (See the play for the end of the UNC game). They average 47% over all (53% in the last three) and their second half percentages the last few games are just sick due to fast breaks. ISU follows a philosophy of wanting to make more free throws than their opponents take. Against UNC they made 15 FTs to UNC taking 15. Against Baylor in the B12 champ game, ISU made 18 and Baylor attempted 16. Baylor is much bigger than UConn. They don't have a lot of fear around the basket and play a bit bigger than their height due to solid positioning, kinda Barkleyesque. They are second in the nation in defensive rebounding, which feeds their fast break. They are averaging 87.4 points per game in the post season against 5 NCAA tourney teams.

5 - If basketball is a game of streaks, the Cyclones are the kings. They've garnered the nickname of the Cardiac Clones because they will go on dramatic streaks in both directions. They started 1-17 against Baylor and missed the first seven against UNC I believe. This inconsistency is quiet consistent. The only game with a rated opponent where I saw them put it together from beginning to end was Kansas. They will offer UConn plenty of opportunities to go on big runs with droughts on quick baskets. It is the downside to their style. If they are hitting they are deadly, if they are missing they're giving free opportunities. The other side of that is they've earned their "clutch" description, its not a one off. They play their best in the last 5-10 minutes of games and have shown the stones to shoot lights out when it matters most. They've come back from 10 point deficits something like 10 times this year, including an 18 point one earlier in the year. However, I believe they are undefeated if leading at half. They are battle tested too. The four #1 seeds in the tourney have a combined 8-5 record against the AP Top 25 heading into the tourney (according to Yahoo Sports). To put that in perspective, ISU had an 8-2 record against the Top 25 prior to last Friday. They won't get rattled easily, outside being in foul trouble.

All in all this should be a fantastic game with two NBA minds tossing out plays. I imagine we'll see mismatches galore on both sides. I think UConn could have the D to slow down Iowa States offense and speedy guards to give them fits on the drive. If the Huskies are held to jump shots though Iowa State should have the advantage with UConn's lower shooting percentage and ISU's rebounding edge keeping UConn from setting up their D. These teams match up extremely well together, it should come down to the last few plays and be really fun from beginning to end.
 
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tazclone said:
You assume Hogue and Ejim can't score down low and kick out. That is a silly assumption. But hey UConn wins going away because Niang is out.
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Simple question - are you as good a team without Niang as with him? If you were the 10th best offense before, where do you stand now - still 10th? If so you must have one fabulous bench, because I thought Niang was supposed to be pretty good. I know that if Giffy or Daniels were out for this game we would have a hard time maintaining our level of play, but hey, maybe I was wrong and Niang was no big deal and you guys won't miss him at all. I'm sure Edozie will go for 12 and 4 to pick up the slack. Personally I think this game would have been pickem with ISU at full strength, but then again I am somewhat biased.
 
"Marat, post: 898557, member: 1069"]Five Reasons UConn will win (see below) - from this site.

http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-bask...etball-will-upset-iowa-state-in-the-sweet-16/

5. No Niang
4. UConn's interior defense
3. ISU not same away from home (see point differential)
2. Free Throw shooting
1. Bazz[/quote]
  1. I find it odd that the aAuthor mentions Shabazz improving his FT % but not Kane. Kane is 75% in the tourney and 76% since the big 12 tourney
  2. Brimah will have to guard someone on the perimeter. He had one block against Villanova and I see a similare performance.
  3. See increased production from Long, Hogue, Long to replace Niangs numbers
  4. Point differential is greatly skewed by three games. Two slow down games against Baylor and WV.
  5. Yeah Shabazz is good
 
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Well if you get a do over on your two games against Baylor and WV, we get to drop Louisville from our schedule and then see what our numbers would be like. Brimah is the most interesting piece to the chess match between the teams - can we force you to play with Edozie because of Brimah or can you force us to go small and play Daniels at the 5. Ollie is pretty comfortable with the small lineup and then we get both teams where all 5 players can shoot from 3. As for free throws, there have been any number of teams we have played that had bad free throw numbers and then stepped up and hit them when playing us -- St. Jo's being the latest instance. We need to work on our free throw defense.
 
Onions said:
As for free throws, there have been any number of teams we have played that had bad free throw numbers and then stepped up and hit them when playing us -- St. Jo's being the latest instance. We need to work on our free throw defense.
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This was infuriating, as we had been told how bad they were from the line, and then they were money the whole game. If they shot at their normal clip, we win that game in regulation.

But, as you said, it seems like a common theme.
 
Falling down 20 to them early in 2012 coupled with the slow starts against St. Joe's and Nova has me concerned about a big hole early. Really hope we avoid that.
 
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Awesome Sauce said:
Honestly, I think this game is a push and whoever can dictate the offense will end up winning it. That being said, as someone who has watched a lot of Cyclone games, here's some thoughts for you (sorry in advance for the long post):

1 - As much as it is being talked about on TV, I highly doubt you'll see a Kane/Napier match up on the defensive end. Kane is much bigger, which causes problems for both. Napier could drive on him until he racks up the fouls or Kane could over power and do the same. Neither coach wants their top guy out of the game due to touch fouls. Instead I think you'll see ISU try and contain, or at least irritate, Napier with Morris/Long. Morris is relatively the same size, a little taller and a little smaller, but Long is 6-4 and isn't a bad defender. It would shock me if you didn't see those two guys try and force Napier into long shots and assists, containing the driving that would get draw fouls. Against Baylor they played a diamond and one, assigning Long to shadow Heslip constantly, allowing the zone to do the rest. Granted Heslip is just a cannon, but it took him out of the game and Baylor, who is bigger than UConn struggled to convert and rebound. I'd imagine they'd do something similar or even double team Napier to slow him down a bit. Or, they could go the other way like they did with Marcus Smart. Just let Napier get his 25 points and clamp down on everyone else. Smart is more like Kane than Napier though, but ISU will try and either limit Napier or his options, finding mismatches somewhere else.

2 - It is not great, by any stretch of the imagination, but don't underestimate ISU's defense either. It has really increased significantly since the WVU loss, where they didn't play any D. Even with those midseason lapses, if you look at points per game, UConn is around 71/63, where ISU is 83/74. ISU is allergic to working the clock. Every missed shot will be run on and any open shot is taken, regardless of timing. ISU averages 74 plays per game and had 80 PosPG vs UNC, however only averaging 66 PosPG over the past three (see Baylor's D that crushed Creighton and is averaging 60 PosPG over the last three, 66 over all). They will run until they collapse. This gives them an average of about 1.12 pts per possession and they give up 1 pts per possession. UConn averages only six less possessions at 68.4 PosPG, but has been averaging up to 70-71 over the past three. That gives them a 1.03 points per possession and 0.92 points per possession allowed. Basically its the exact same spread, just a different speed. While ISU is not a shut down D team, their higher points per game is more indicative of loving to run, than being unable to guard. And the more possessions UConn allows, the better the odds get for ISU. They've only had one game all year where they scored less than 70 against a pretty tough schedule. They're holding teams to 41% shooting, compared to UConn's 39%. If UConn can hold them to 39% by taking bad shots possessions won't matter.

3 - They are not deep. This is the biggest issue with this team made exponentially worse by losing Niang. Edozie/Gibson will be used sparingly to clog up the paint so you'll pretty much see Ejim, Houge, Kane, Morris, then a combo of Long/Thomas (both 6-4 shooters) to fill in the gaps. Someone mentioned earlier they are a second half team, that's because they play timidly in the first to avoid fouls and aggressively in the second with them to burn. They've found ways to out rebound much larger front lines (they had a +10 rebound advantage against Baylor and only a -1 against UNC who out rebounded Providence by 20), but if you get them into foul trouble it shuts down the entire works. They were starting to dominate UNC, then Kane drew his third and he had to play less aggressively after. Almost immediately UNC went on a big run and swapped it from being down to being up eight. If UConn goes for jumpers they play into ISU's hands because they are an aggressive rebounding team for their size. If UConn slashes successfully, especially with taller forwards, they could take them out of their game. ISU may be able to survive losing Kane, since they have another 6-4 shooter off the bench, but losing Houge or Ejim could be a death knell with Niang already out. Daniels, Giffy, and Kromah will need to assert themselves. I'm not sure about Brimah. ISU shut Austin from Baylor down in the paint, making him shoot outside jumpers, which he's pretty good at. So I don't think just being tall is going to be that useful. Someone like Embiid, who is tall and aggressive on the glass, gives them fits. Other forwards who had their way with Iowa State are Nash from OSU, Wiggens from Kansas, and Cory Jefferson from Baylor; all 6-9 slashers who can shoot a consistent 10 footer.

4 - Their style of play is slash and shoot. They lead the nation in assists per game. (Kane averages 7 per game and Morris averaged a freakish 6.5 assist to turnover ratio in B12 play) Everyone on the team looks for the open guy and they space very well. If the defense collapses on the drive, the open shooter will take it. All of the top seven will shoot the open three and Ejim will hover around the three point line like Kane to drive or shoot depending on the D. If the defense doesn't collapse they're going to the bucket (See the play for the end of the UNC game). They average 47% over all (53% in the last three) and their second half percentages the last few games are just sick due to fast breaks. ISU follows a philosophy of wanting to make more free throws than their opponents take. Against UNC they made 15 FTs to UNC taking 15. Against Baylor in the B12 champ game, ISU made 18 and Baylor attempted 16. Baylor is much bigger than UConn. They don't have a lot of fear around the basket and play a bit bigger than their height due to solid positioning, kinda Barkleyesque. They are second in the nation in defensive rebounding, which feeds their fast break. They are averaging 87.4 points per game in the post season against 5 NCAA tourney teams.

5 - If basketball is a game of streaks, the Cyclones are the kings. They've garnered the nickname of the Cardiac Clones because they will go on dramatic streaks in both directions. They started 1-17 against Baylor and missed the first seven against UNC I believe. This inconsistency is quiet consistent. The only game with a rated opponent where I saw them put it together from beginning to end was Kansas. They will offer UConn plenty of opportunities to go on big runs with droughts on quick baskets. It is the downside to their style. If they are hitting they are deadly, if they are missing they're giving free opportunities. The other side of that is they've earned their "clutch" description, its not a one off. They play their best in the last 5-10 minutes of games and have shown the stones to shoot lights out when it matters most. They've come back from 10 point deficits something like 10 times this year, including an 18 point one earlier in the year. However, I believe they are undefeated if leading at half. They are battle tested too. The four #1 seeds in the tourney have a combined 8-5 record against the AP Top 25 heading into the tourney (according to Yahoo Sports). To put that in perspective, ISU had an 8-2 record against the Top 25 prior to last Friday. They won't get rattled easily, outside being in foul trouble.

All in all this should be a fantastic game with two NBA minds tossing out plays. I imagine we'll see mismatches galore on both sides. I think UConn could have the D to slow down Iowa States offense and speedy guards to give them fits on the drive. If the Huskies are held to jump shots though Iowa State should have the advantage with UConn's lower shooting percentage and ISU's rebounding edge keeping UConn from setting up their D. These teams match up extremely well together, it should come down to the last few plays and be really fun from beginning to end.
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What a great write up!!!!!!
  1. Morris has said in an interview that he will be the primary defender on Napier as he should. He is ISU's best on ball defender. Heplayed well against the likes of Staten and Paige. I think Paige only scored 4 of his points while Morris was on him and Staten only 7. I kinda expect Fred to do the latter and let Napier get his points. Either that or he will reach into the Tim Floyd bag of tricks and throw some junk defenses out there.
  2. 2. Great breakdown
  3. I doubt you see Gibson much unless ISU is in big foul trouble. Even with Hogue having foul trouble late in the game, Gibson only saw 2 minutes. Now maybe with a 5 days, Fred works him in a little more but he hasn't all year.
  4. Morris and Long are the key here. Long has been on fire. He shot over 50% from 3 in the first 9 games then shot 25% for a while but is back above 50% the last nine games. Long can shoot with a hand in his face and will probably do this a lot more against UConn. Morris has been shooting the three much better since the Big 12 tourney. He is shooting 77% from three since the Big 12 tourney and 80% from three in the NCAA Tourney. Morris has also been a lot more aggressive driving to the hole lately and will need to do so to take the pressure off Kane.
  5. Fred preaches about the game being a game of streaks and Surviving streaks and going on streaks. That is his NBA mentality. I know Onions on here doesn't think the coach helps on gameday but Fred instills confidence. After Naz made the three to pull ISU to within 5 against UNC there was a timeout. The guys came to the timeout and Fred was smiling and told the guys to smile because they were going to win this game. Fred is calm and doesn't get rattled and the players reflect that. When Fred got his second T of the season against KU, KU went on a run. After the game, Fred apologized to the players for getting riled up because he felt it got them riled up and he had to calm them down. The mental toughness of this team cannot be understated. I have seen them give up twice. West Virgina and to an extent Baylor. Other than that, double digit leads are nothing to this team. You won't see give up from this team in the tourney.
I think pace of play and officiating will decide this game. Almost every team thinks they can run and should run ISU out of the gym because of lack of depth. It doesn't work. If the game is a tightly called game, I think it benefits UConn as they are quicker in the back court overall and ISU could see foul trouble. If it is a more physical game, then I think it favors ISU. Kane, Hogue, and Ejim can play through contact. Kane and Hogue actually thrive on the contact.

Man I am excited for this game
 
Onions said:
Simple question - are you as good a team without Niang as with him? If you were the 10th best offense before, where do you stand now - still 10th? If so you must have one fabulous bench, because I thought Niang was supposed to be pretty good. I know that if Giffy or Daniels were out for this game we would have a hard time maintaining our level of play, but hey, maybe I was wrong and Niang was no big deal and you guys won't miss him at all. I'm sure Edozie will go for 12 and 4 to pick up the slack. Personally I think this game would have been pickem with ISU at full strength, but then again I am somewhat biased.
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We have a sample size of one game, with less than 48 hours to prepare for that one game. Using the boneyards favored Kenpom, here's what we know:

With Niang, ISU averaged 82.9 ppg with the 10th best offense for the regular season. Against North Carolina without Niang, a team that has the KP 21st best defense, Iowa State scored 85 points.
 
Marat said:
Five Reasons UConn will win (see below) - from this site.

http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-bask...etball-will-upset-iowa-state-in-the-sweet-16/

5. No Niang
4. UConn's interior defense
3. ISU not same away from home (see point differential)
2. Free Throw shooting
1. Bazz
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Well... Technically speaking, Iowa State's last 5 games have been "away". In which they have scored 91, 94, 74, 93 and 85 points. It's really hard to gauge how ISU will play Friday without Niang seeing they have only played one game thus far without him. I am glad that Coach Hoiberg will have had a full week to prepare for the game. Should be interesting!
 
Onions said:
Simple question - are you as good a team without Niang as with him? If you were the 10th best offense before, where do you stand now - still 10th? If so you must have one fabulous bench, because I thought Niang was supposed to be pretty good. I know that if Giffy or Daniels were out for this game we would have a hard time maintaining our level of play, but hey, maybe I was wrong and Niang was no big deal and you guys won't miss him at all. I'm sure Edozie will go for 12 and 4 to pick up the slack. Personally I think this game would have been pickem with ISU at full strength, but then again I am somewhat biased.
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I think the jury is out on your question since the team played one game without Niang and had one day of practice to prepare and still scored 85 points (albeit against a poor defensive team). Morris, Long and Hogue see a reduced role with Niang in the game. In games where Niang was in foul trouble, Hogue saw his numbers increase. Are we better with Niang? Sure but the real question is how much better. Do we drop to 11th in offense or 20th? I think you feel our offense will drop way down and I think it will not drop that far.

It seems as though you think with Niang out, his 16.7, 4.5 and 3.6 disappear. That simply isn't true. Neither does the opposing team big having to guard on the perimeter. Hogue shoots a higher 3pt% than Niang.

Another thing thing is UConn simply has no idea what ISU will do without Niang and four days of practice. Does ISU play the exact same gameplan as the UNC game? Do we become more of a typical Fred team that is three ball dominated or do we continue to dribble drive dish? Does Percy get more minutes because he is much better offensively than Edozie? Do Hogue and Ejim get a little more practice time filling Niang's role as a pt forward? Does ISU go a little zone or match up zone?
Personally, I think Madison Square Garden hurts ISU moer than anything. Although, four of our guys are from the East Coast and are excited to get back towards home.
 
Onions said:
Personally I think this game would have been pickem with ISU at full strength, but then again I am somewhat biased.
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Obviously (as you should be:) ) I took a quick look on ESPN regarding season stats to see where both teams ranked (injuries aside) and was honestly surprised at what I found:

Points Per Game: ISU 6th - UConn 144th
Rebounds Per Game: ISU 23rd - UConn 146th
Assists Per Game: ISU 1st - UConn 179th
FG Percentage: ISU 40th - UConn 142nd

If you removed the team name from those statistics and had to guess who would win if/when they played, I think the choice would be blatantly obvious. But, like I previously posted, I think you can throw the stats out the window on this one. Going to be good!
 
CyclONEnation said:
We have a sample size of one game, with less than 48 hours to prepare for that one game. Using the boneyards favored Kenpom, here's what we know:

With Niang, ISU averaged 82.9 ppg with the 10th best offense for the regular season. Against North Carolina without Niang, a team that has the KP 21st best defense, Iowa State scored 85 points.
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UNC doesn't play defense. That has been established here :)
 
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MileHighFish said:
Obviously (as you should be:) ) I took a quick look on ESPN regarding season stats to see where both teams ranked (injuries aside) and was honestly surprised at what I found:

Points Per Game: ISU 6th - UConn 144th
Rebounds Per Game: ISU 23rd - UConn 146th
Assists Per Game: ISU 1st - UConn 179th
FG Percentage: ISU 40th - UConn 142nd

If you removed the team name from those statistics and had to guess who would win if/when they played, I think the choice would be blatantly obvious. But, like I previously posted, I think you can throw the stats out the window on this one. Going to be good!
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The argument will be made that ISU's numbers benefit from their uptempo pace. That is why people use Kenpom because it figures in points per possession and strength of schedule or something like that.

For comparison's sake I asked someone the difference between a defense ranked 50th and 20th. Leebo posted this

UConn #10 - 93.2 points allowed per 100 possessions
Kansas St. #20 - 94.7
American #50 - 97.8
Iowa St. #58 - 98.9
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I think that is interesting as there is a 1.5 point per 100 possessions difference between UConn and KSU. Or 1.14 ppp difference in a 76 possession game.
 
Marat said:
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/tale-of-the-tape/round-of-16-matchup-3-iowa-state-vs-7-connecticut/

According to this guy, UConn is better than ISU in everything but offense, so UConn wins.
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I would place a bet that this guy has no clue where Iowa is even located on a map. His logic in putting Ollie over Hoiberg as a coach is flawed at best. At best they are a wash. As everyone on the board knows, ISU's points per game defense is really a flawed stat due to pace of play as well as their points per game and assist per game. In short, that is a very poor piece.
 
MileHighFish said:
Obviously (as you should be:) ) I took a quick look on ESPN regarding season stats to see where both teams ranked (injuries aside) and was honestly surprised at what I found:

Points Per Game: ISU 6th - UConn 144th
Rebounds Per Game: ISU 23rd - UConn 146th
Assists Per Game: ISU 1st - UConn 179th
FG Percentage: ISU 40th - UConn 142nd

If you removed the team name from those statistics and had to guess who would win if/when they played, I think the choice would be blatantly obvious. But, like I previously posted, I think you can throw the stats out the window on this one. Going to be good!
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These stats are useless. You play at a faster pace, and therefore necessarily average more points, rebounds, and assists per game. There are more possessions for you to do so.

UConn intentionally slows the game down a bit more. It looks to run, but only strategically.

In a 100 possession game, UConn would be expected to score 111.1 points, good for 57th (keep in mind we had some injuries to Daniels, and a nagging one to Napier).
Iowa State would be expected to score 117.8 points, which is good for 10th. Without Niang, I'd expect this to go down.

But, conversely, UConn only be expected to allow 93.2 points in a 100 possession game, good for 10th.
Iowa State would be expected to give up 98.9, good for 58th. From what I'm hearing, without Niang, I'd expect this to go up (meaning your defense is improved).

So, the teams are near exact opposites (57-10; 10-58). KenPom puts them at 19 (UConn) and 20 (Iowa State).

I would expect the FG% to be what it is, as Iowa State likes to get into transition.

I don't pay for KenPom, so I can't tell you about rebound rate and assist rate. I'd wager Iowa State does both better, though, even when pace adjusted.
 
tazclone said:
I would be ecstatic if Nolan and Brimah combine for 16. If that is s the case we won't double. I worry about one of them going off for 16. Is Daniels a physical player down low or more finesse? l
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I honestly don't think that works out well for you. If you don't double, fine, if those two combine for 16 we are playing the game at our pace, not yours. If that's the case, I think we win.
 
WingU-Conn said:
I honestly don't think that works out well for you. If you don't double, fine, if those two combine for 16 we are playing the game at our pace, not yours. If that's the case, I think we win.
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I agree here. If those 2 get 16 combined, I'm feeling very good. Unless we're forcing it at them and they have a bunch of TOs.
 
None of the UConn big guys are physical. DD would count as finesse. Nolan and Brimah are just "whatever they can get".
 
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caw said:
It's going to be interesting to see how well each coach exploits the other and adjusts in game.

Can Brimah defend the three if Edozie isn't in? Will Brimah force ISU to play Edozie more, will ISUs outside-in strategy force Brimah to the bench and a smaller lineup for UConn? Will it force a zone?

And that's just the five.
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Doubtful. Probably not. Probably. Definitely not.
 
tzznandrew said:
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These stats are useless. You play at a faster pace, and therefore necessarily average more points, rebounds, and assists per game. There are more possessions for you to do so.

UConn intentionally slows the game down a bit more. It looks to run, but only strategically.
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And can you believe no team has attempted to slow the game down against Iowa State all season.
 
CyclONEnation said:
And can you believe no team has attempted to slow the game down against Iowa State all season.
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Well, of course they have.

Do you think teams haven't sped the game up on UConn?

When the game speeds up, UConn theoretically should score at the same clip per 100 possessions.

So if they had the same number of possessions as Iowa State, you'd see those scoring numbers to look a lot closer.

And, do you know how teams tend to have the same number of possessions? When they play each other.
 
Leebo said:
None of the UConn big guys are physical. DD would count as finesse. Nolan and Brimah are just "whatever they can get".
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Can they be aggressive? Long, physical swings who drive and fight for rebounds is the Achilles heel of ISU. If they're just mopping up left overs, 16 points over two guys is a win for ISU, who can average every starter in double digits even without Niang.
 
tazclone said:
I simply believe this to be wrong. You seem to hover on Kane and Niang but Ejim was the Big 12 of the year and I see no one discussing him. This game will be a great game and either team can win. If both bring their A game it will go down to whoever has the ball last. ISU has five guys that can all go off for 20+. Long, Kane and Morris are all above average defenders. Ejim and Hogue are undersized but I don't see anyone for UConn that really takes advantage of that which helps keep Ejim and Hogue out of foul trouble.
This will be a battle
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I think we're more concerned about Kane because he's a worse matchup. We have a lot of 6'6-6'8 guys at the 3/4 who can match up with Ejim. Sure, we can't exploit a size advantage in our favor (maybe you're used to that happening against you), but you also can't exploit a quickness/shooting advantage at the 4 that you're used to doing.

Kane at a muscular 6'4, with quickess, is a nightmare matchup for a team with a woefully undersized backcourt in Boatright ad Napier.
 
Awesome Sauce said:
Can they be aggressive? Long, physical swings who drive and fight for rebounds is the Achilles heel of ISU. If they're just mopping up left overs, 16 points over two guys is a win for ISU, who can average every starter in double digits even without Niang.
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Nolan and Brimah are not going to be aggressive. They tend to look out of control when they are.

DD has been known to make some impressive moves to the basket for big dunks, or floaters if he gets stopped.
 
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