Lady Vols - 2012-13

[doggydaddy]

nice post. i agree and unlike some of your fellow fans, i think UCONN being a great team is good for the game. not threatening at all to TN's history.

night all

I don't find Tennessee being good threatening. Just looking at the current situation and telling it like I see it.

 

[doggydaddy]

Depth is overrated if you have a really good group of kids in your short rotation. Tennessee will have seven kids that include no top-end talent that has proven much of anything at the college level. If they had Candace Parker? Sure, the depth issue isn't important. But when the best thing you can say about these kids is that they were high school AAs, that's not a ringing endorsement. Can Massengale generate more of her own offense when she has to? Can Burdick's offensive game develop significantly? Can Graves come in and have an immediate impact? Can Spani get back in shape and locked in for her senior campaign? Can Simmons be more consistent while maintaining her intensity and competitiveness? Can Williams be something more than adequate? Can Harrison be productive with increased minutes? When there are legitimate questions around each player on a short rotation with no anchor like Parker or Maya, that's where depth is a concern. The more players you have, the greater a chance you have that enough questions can be answered positively to field a good team.

Tennessee had a team full of high school AAs this year with actual college bona fides on top of it (league POY honors, college AA recognition, etc.). And they still lost games to teams like Arkansas, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vanderbilt. A little less talent, fewer matchup problems created by players like Glory, Stricklen, and Baugh, and that could mean more losses. I agree with VowelGuy's assessment that in a couple years, when the six underclassmen are upperclassmen, this could be a pretty stout team, but on a team with six freshmen and sophomores out of nine players, other teams' experience and chemistry can easily trump talent.

Well said, Alex.

And the same goes for a lack of height. If you have a star like Maya, it can be mitigated. But when Harrison is your only true post, there will be trouble rebounding and defending.

And speaking of defending, that will be a huge problem for Tennessee. When they start Massingale, Simmons, Spani, Burdick and Harrison, they will be a poor defensive team. The small backcourt will be an issue and they struggled last year to guard the perimeter with better defenders. Spani and Burdick are slow of foot and Harrison is a foul machine and need to get a lot stronger.

 

[UcMiami]

Just one note of reality on TN next year ... It was going to be a bitch of a year whether Pat was 100% healthy and still coaching or not. You cannot lose 5 seniors who contributed major minutes and represent the 'stars' of your team and not have a bitch of a year. And that is especially true when you do not have a 'major' force returning. Massingale, Spani, Simmons sort of remind me of the complementary players we had left when DT graduated - good players but unable to really take over leadership. Given everything else that is going on at TN it is going to be even tougher. And while HW may be a very good coach given a chance to really run the team, I do not believe she is in the class of PS or GA and so I think the team will struggle.
The real question in my mind and the first 'tell' in terms of the future for TN will be what the 2013 recruiting class looks like. There is no question there are openings for players on the team in 2013, but will the top players commit? And 2013 has already been somewhat compromised by the uncertainly leading up to this date, so 2014 may be even more telling. If they can land some top 10 recruits in 2013 and/or 2014 then the future will look considerably brighter.
In terms of Pat's helping in recruiting, it may end up being a double edged sword - yes it is great to get to meet Pat on your visit, but she will also be the tangible foil to the current coaches you will be playing for who cannot but pale in comparison.

 

[Suebird10fan]

I think the importance of both size and depth tends to get overestimated. And so does how far teams will fall. Hasn't UConn been showing that for awhile now? The right coach could get Tennessee back to the Elite 8 with that roster. In part due to more clearly defined offensive roles because whoever is coaching doesn't have enough options to muck it up very much. Warlick probably isn't that coach, but if things break right she may anyway even if they have close to double digit losses again along the way.

Warlick can still trot out a starting lineup of entirely McDonald's All-Americans. There aren't 8 other teams in the country that can do that.

Massengale is capable of playing much better than she did as a freshman, particularly shooting the ball. There is a reason UConn recruited her so heavily and a reason she's consistently been the starting point guard for USA Basketball. She had better than a 2/1 assist to turnover ratio, the first Tennessee player to accomplish that was Kara Lawson. The last player to have more assists in a season was Marciniak. I don't think Massengale becomes a superstar, but she can be the foundation of a good team.

Around her you put Simmons and Spani. Two different kinds of wing players with now more defined roles. Burdick slots in fairly decently as a supporting player to fill in the gaps at the 4, which is her makeup. And I anticipate Bashara Graves will be starting at the 5 as a freshman, and I do like what i have seen so far from her. She should be able to rebound and score some as a freshman. Harrison is the backup post and Warlick has three guards to find a 6th man from. I'm sure they hope Carter is recovered enough from her ACL to be that player, but they can make do with Williams as they have in the past if the Elite 8 is the goal.

If they have injuries like they have been having for the last few years they're obviously in deep trouble, but if they stay healthy and can ride their starting lineup they will be relatively okay and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the first Tennessee team in a decade to have more assists than turnovers. In part because there are a few atypical Tennessee players on the roster and in part because they may actually develop a little offensive chemistry by having the same players play significant minutes together even if the offensive coaching isn't great. They'll most likely be a Sweet 16 team, but like Notre Dame I wouldn't be that surprised if they ended up in the Elite 8 because the reality is there are very few teams with their top end talent, and top end talent tends to carry teams pretty far in basketball.

Thanks Scotter. I think you added an important perspective. I would add that Meighan Simmons was so horrible last year that for her to play up to her potential would be a huge boost. And I'm certainly not talking all American cuz I don't think she's in that category, even potentially. We've seen enough of her shot selection to know that. But consensus was she was top 10 in her class as a freshman. I thought that might be slightly generous. But if she can play like one of the top 15 juniors in the country, that will make up for losing Stricklen and Manning right there. You add in the natural improvement with Massengale from freshman to sophomore years, plus Graves making a solid contribution and I don't necessarily see a precipitous fall.

By the way, I don't think this is a huge factor, but I'm assuming that clarification of Summitt's status and graduation of the underachieving senior class will be a positive factor for team chemistry.

Tennessee needs to stay healthy, no doubt. But, if they do I would put them at somewhere between 10 and 12 and wouldn't be the least bit shocked if they ended up sneaking in as a 2 seed. They'll lose a lot of games for sure because of their tough schedule. And they're only a couple of injuries away from flirting with being unranked, but let's face it folks, the number of teams that clearly stack up as having more talent than the Vols next year is very, very short--the ones that come to mind are UConn, Baylor, Duke, MD, KY are the ones that leap to mind. After that the pickings get very, very slim.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Depth is overrated if you have a really good group of kids in your short rotation. Tennessee will have seven kids that include no top-end talent that has proven much of anything at the college level. If they had Candace Parker? Sure, the depth issue isn't important. But when the best thing you can say about these kids is that they were high school AAs, that's not a ringing endorsement. Can Massengale generate more of her own offense when she has to? Can Burdick's offensive game develop significantly? Can Graves come in and have an immediate impact? Can Spani get back in shape and locked in for her senior campaign? Can Simmons be more consistent while maintaining her intensity and competitiveness? Can Williams be something more than adequate? Can Harrison be productive with increased minutes? When there are legitimate questions around each player on a short rotation with no anchor like Parker or Maya, that's where depth is a concern. The more players you have, the greater a chance you have that enough questions can be answered positively to field a good team.

Tennessee had a team full of high school AAs this year with actual college bona fides on top of it (league POY honors, college AA recognition, etc.). And they still lost games to teams like Arkansas, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vanderbilt. A little less talent, fewer matchup problems created by players like Glory, Stricklen, and Baugh, and that could mean more losses. I agree with VowelGuy's assessment that in a couple years, when the six underclassmen are upperclassmen, this could be a pretty stout team, but on a team with six freshmen and sophomores out of nine players, other teams' experience and chemistry can easily trump talent.

Alex, as I read your comments I'm wondering what bar you are using. If you meant that Tennessee could be looking at double digit losses and is very unlikely to be a FF team, I would certainly agree.

But a lot of folks on the board are talking about Tennessee not being close to a top ten team. I think that's where Scotter's comments come in. And as far as that debate goes, I think you have to be careful in speculating that team after team with inferior talent will be superior to Tennessee because of the Vols youth and lack of depth. Assuming obviously that they stay away from significant injuries. We'd all agree they are hugely susceptible to injuries.

 

[alexrgct]

Alex, as I read your comments I'm wondering what bar you are using. If you meant that Tennessee could be looking at double digit losses and is very unlikely to be a FF team, I would certainly agree.

But a lot of folks on the board are talking about Tennessee not being close to a top ten team. I think that's where Scotter's comments come in. And as far as that debate goes, I think you have to be careful in speculating that team after team with inferior talent will be superior to Tennessee because of the Vols youth and lack of depth. Assuming obviously that they stay away from significant injuries. We'd all agree they are hugely susceptible to injuries.

One need only go back as recently as 2008-09 for an example of a team loaded to the gills with high school AAs that wasn't able to stay inside the top 10. That team ended up a five seed and losing in shocking fashion in the first round. I'm not predicting that result necessarily, but I think the LV team of next season resembles that team far more closely than any of UConn's short rotation squads that contended.

Just as the LVs got a lot better in the seasons that followed as the core nucleus got a little more experienced, so too will the LVs in the seasons that follow 2012-13. But next year they could easily be outside of the top 10, possibly worse if not enough of the questions I posed get answered affirmatively.

 

[alexrgct]

Another example: the 2004-05 Huskies. That team was pretty loaded with high school AAs. Junior class was the #1 recruiting class in the country and had played a key role in two NC teams. Freshman class was super talented as well: Mel, Ketia, Charde. But that team ended up barely in the top 10 and lost convincingly in the Sweet 16. Is it unreasonable to think the 2012-13 LVs could end up somewhere between the 2004-05 Huskies and 2008-09 LVs?

 

[stwainfan]

Burdick - improved could be the best player on the team.
Massengale - improved better she has the skills.
Harrison - improved she learned a lot from Johnson and Baugh.
Carter - going to be a star.
Spani - needs to stay healthy and will be fine.
Simmons - will be better.
Williams- will be healthy and better.
Graves - will help in the post.
Jones - will also help in post.
If there are no big injuries I see the team winning 20-30 games making atleast sweet 16.

 

[Icebear]

Sweet 16 will likely be the best outcome to hope for but there are other more important issues on the table for the team and Pat.

 

[doggydaddy]

Burdick - improved could be the best player on the team.
Massengale - improved better she has the skills.
Harrison - improved she learned a lot from Johnson and Baugh.
Carter - going to be a star.
Spani - needs to stay healthy and will be fine.
Simmons - will be better.
Williams- will be healthy and better.
Graves - will help in the post.
Jones - will also help in post.
If there are no big injuries I see the team winning 20-30 games making atleast sweet 16.

Every player coming back will be better? I just don't think that is realistic.

I can see them making the sweet 16. If they lose in the sweet 16, that means 36 games. So you are saying they will lose 6-16 games? Quite the range there.

 

[doggydaddy]

Sweet 16 will likely be the best outcome to hope for but there are other more important issues on the table for the team and Pat.

I understand there are more important issues on the table for Summitt. But if there are more important issues for the team than on the court performance, they are in big trouble.

 

[Icebear]

I understand there are more important issues on the table for Summitt. But if there are more important issues for the team than on the court performance, they are in big trouble.

True, but it is all none the less true, too.

 

[connboy77]

I have seen posts by Tennessee Fans saying that next years team will be better then this years team. I just don't see it. As bad as this years team was, they did make the elite eight. As others have posted, the best next years team can hope for is the sweet 16.

 

[doggydaddy]

Another example: the 2004-05 Huskies. That team was pretty loaded with high school AAs. Junior class was the #1 recruiting class in the country and had played a key role in two NC teams. Freshman class was super talented as well: Mel, Ketia, Charde. But that team ended up barely in the top 10 and lost convincingly in the Sweet 16. Is it unreasonable to think the 2012-13 LVs could end up somewhere between the 2004-05 Huskies and 2008-09 LVs?

The 04-5 team was much more talented and experienced than the TN 12-13 team. And they suffered from the losses of their senior leader in Taurasi and Conlon. Of course, DT was irreplaceable, but they had a senior center and very good juniors coming back. It didn't matter.

In that respect, there is a similarity between the two teams. Losing Stricklen and Johnson are huge losses. Fortunately for Tennessee, they return their "starting" guards in Massingale and Simmons. That will help if those two can improve on how they played last season. But without their two go to players, it changes the dynamics of the team. Who do they look for in tough situations?

We continue to talk about the offense, but Tennessee was not a very good defensive team last year and without Baugh and Johnson, they will not be as good next year. They have a smallish backcourt and a weak post in Harrison. Physically, she reminded me of Michala Johnson. Burdick can be a nice offensive player, but her defense needs a lot of work. She is slow a foot.

Depending on the schedule, I can't see them doing better than 24-12.

I'll use Vanderbilt as an example. They split last year. In the game in Knoxville, Tennessee killed them. And in that game, Stricklen scored 20, Johnson 16/13 and Baugh 16/7. Vandy returns all their starters. I can't see Tennessee beating them.

There are other SEC teams that return more and played UT tough last year. Those teams will be salivating with a chance to beat Tennessee.

 

[stwainfan]

Every player coming back will be better? I just don't think that is realistic.

I can see them making the sweet 16. If they lose in the sweet 16, that means 36 games. So you are saying they will lose 6-16 games? Quite the range there.

I said better for example Williams is healthy. She will add a lot to the team next year. She is a better overall player. Last year she improved on defense. I know Burdick said after the season that she was going to work hard to get better. With her talent I think she will be very good next year.
I think Carter will have a very good freshman year. She can also play point. So for the first time in a few years there is debth at the point guard.

 

[VAMike23]

Burdick - improved could be the best player on the team.
Massengale - improved better she has the skills.
Harrison - improved she learned a lot from Johnson and Baugh.
Carter - going to be a star.
Spani - needs to stay healthy and will be fine.
Simmons - will be better.
Williams- will be healthy and better.
Graves - will help in the post.
Jones - will also help in post.
If there are no big injuries I see the team winning 20-30 games making atleast sweet 16.

I think Ariel is a (the?) big key for this team - this past year had its ups and downs for sure, but experiencing these kinds of things as a freshman can pay big dividends down the road. IMO she has the goods to be lot better and perform a lot better and really pull a team along. The jump from freshman to sophomore seasons is usually very telling for the great ones. I think she could surprise some folks....

 

[Wbbfan1]

I think you're right, Ariel has to make next years Lady Vols team, her team and she has to become the leader both on and off the court.

I think Ariel is a (the?) big key for this team - this past year had its ups and downs for sure, but experiencing these kinds of things as a freshman can pay big dividends down the road. IMO she has the goods to be lot better and perform a lot better and really pull a team along. The jump from freshman to sophomore seasons is usually very telling for the great ones. I think she could surprise some folks....

 

[Vowelguy]

Burdick - improved could be the best player on the team.

This mystifies me. If she's that good, how did she have basically a 0 year?

Please don't say it's because she couldn't get on the floor behind Glory & SS. If she was _that_ good, they would've found room for her, particularly since they had made SS play multiple positions in the past. Or have GJ play center against smaller teams? And it wasn't like Burdick lit things up when she did come in.

And if you still want to make that argument, then how can she replace them after not even be able to sub for them?

 

[UCONNfan1]

This mystifies me. If she's that good, how did she have basically a 0 year?

Please don't say it's because she couldn't get on the floor behind Glory & SS. If she was _that_ good, they would've found room for her, particularly since they had made SS play multiple positions in the past. Or have GJ play center against smaller teams? And it wasn't like Burdick lit things up when she did come in.

And if you still want to make that argument, then how can she replace them after not even be able to sub for them?

the answer is two-fold. first, it's off season and it's a time for fans to fantasize and imagine a season full of hope and promise. second, it's homerism. we are guilty of it too. Heather had one good game in her career (maybe a few and i exaggerate) - her game against Griner 2 years back. but fans still frequently lament that Heather doesn't get much PT, and some couldn't get why she wasn't in ahead of Stokes.

i'm not saying all fans felt that way, but my point is Burdick probably had a few nice moments. she's certainly a solid player. just like Stokes is a solid player. but she's nowhere near the level of KML or Williams, for example. will she be solid? sure. a contributer? sure. a realistic replacement for Glory Johsnon? not even close.

fans can't really have it both ways. if Glory, Shekinna and Vicki were that great, seeing as they were all drafted, then the problems at Tennessee this past year were either coaching, other players not being good, the seniors not as good even tho they were all drafted, or some combo of that.

then again, it's the offseason and with no games to be played, fans can predict whatever they want.

 

[stwainfan]

As for Burdick she had time when she played good. She has a nice stroke on her shot. She can shoot the mid range jumper. I saw her make some real sweet passes. She said that she is going to work hard in the off season to be better. I think it will show in her game and experience.

 

[Scotter]

Another example: the 2004-05 Huskies. That team was pretty loaded with high school AAs. Junior class was the #1 recruiting class in the country and had played a key role in two NC teams. Freshman class was super talented as well: Mel, Ketia, Charde. But that team ended up barely in the top 10 and lost convincingly in the Sweet 16. Is it unreasonable to think the 2012-13 LVs could end up somewhere between the 2004-05 Huskies and 2008-09 LVs?

If that's the question all we are debating is the tone. I expect them to get to the S16 just like the 04-05 Huskies with about as good a chance to go to the Elite 8 as pull another 1st round loss depending on how the season develops.


The 04-05 Huskies have a lot more in common with the last several Lady Vol teams than next season's Lady Vol team in my opinion. No qualify point guard and a ton of players suffering different injuries (Wolff coming off an ACL and not having played in two years, Jessica Moore coming back quick from an ACL suffered in April. Barbara Turner was banged up during the season and missed 4 games including some of the losses. Mel Thomas and Ketia Swanier both missed 4 games that year and Mel's had to play with the mask after she broke her nose. I'm probably missing others.

And Geno did a pretty good Pat Summitt impression that season complete with a freshman Charde Houston as his Meighan Simmons and banning his players from the locker room and making them do their own laundry. He played nine player rotation even into the NCAA tournament with all 9 players averaging at least 13 minutes per game, and a ton of different starting lineups and rotations.

Tennessee isn't as talented the last several years, but there is something to be said for players knowing where they stand on the team and their roles. Knowing who is going to be starting. Knowing exactly who the scorers are on the team and who needs to take shots. It typically does wonders for a basketball team. Giving a coach a deep roster full of players with overlapping skill sets and similar talent is typically like giving a director and unlimited budget. It creates the opportunity for greatness, but more than likely the result is going to be worse than if there was a tighter leash on the director. Even Geno doesn't handle the situation particularly well. When one of his teams underachieve he's typically dealing with that situation. There may be less talent at Tennessee, but it is enough talent to have a successful season given favorable conditions by their new standards (E8), and I see the lack of depth as more helpful than problematic if they can finally avoid major injuries this season, particularly since this team actually has its point guard situation figured out.

 

[doggydaddy]

If that's the question all we are debating is the tone. I expect them to get to the S16 just like the 04-05 Huskies with about as good a chance to go to the Elite 8 as pull another 1st round loss depending on how the season develops.


The 04-05 Huskies have a lot more in common with the last several Lady Vol teams than next season's Lady Vol team in my opinion. No qualify point guard and a ton of players suffering different injuries (Wolff coming off an ACL and not having played in two years, Jessica Moore coming back quick from an ACL suffered in April. Barbara Turner was banged up during the season and missed 4 games including some of the losses. Mel Thomas and Ketia Swanier both missed 4 games that year and Mel's had to play with the mask after she broke her nose. I'm probably missing others.

And Geno did a pretty good Pat Summitt impression that season complete with a freshman Charde Houston as his Meighan Simmons and banning his players from the locker room and making them do their own laundry. He played nine player rotation even into the NCAA tournament with all 9 players averaging at least 13 minutes per game, and a ton of different starting lineups and rotations.

Tennessee isn't as talented the last several years, but there is something to be said for players knowing where they stand on the team and their roles. Knowing who is going to be starting. Knowing exactly who the scorers are on the team and who needs to take shots. It typically does wonders for a basketball team. Giving a coach a deep roster full of players with overlapping skill sets and similar talent is typically like giving a director and unlimited budget. It creates the opportunity for greatness, but more than likely the result is going to be worse than if there was a tighter leash on the director. Even Geno doesn't handle the situation particularly well. When one of his teams underachieve he's typically dealing with that situation. There may be less talent at Tennessee, but it is enough talent to have a successful season given favorable conditions by their new standards (E8), and I see the lack of depth as more helpful than problematic if they can finally avoid major injuries this season, particularly since this team actually has its point guard situation figured out.

What is your opinion on the defensive capabilities of this team? They struggled recently covering the 3 point line, and being a smallish team, they could struggle to cover the post as well.

 

[Bestiarius]

To look at the TN recruiting situation a bit differently, I wonder how many of the players on the squad during the last four years (including the class that just graduated), would be at TN today if Pat were diagnosed 4 years ago. Which players if any, would have been likely to have selected a different program?

 

[Vowelguy]

To look at the TN recruiting situation a bit differently, I wonder how many of the players on the squad during the last four years (including the class that just graduated), would be at TN today if Pat were diagnosed 4 years ago. Which players if any, would have been likely to have selected a different program?

Any change in coach would bring a different mix of recruits. The same will surely happen when Geno leaves as well. There's no way to know whose choices would've been different.

 

[BigO]

To look at the TN recruiting situation a bit differently, I wonder how many of the players on the squad during the last four years (including the class that just graduated), would be at TN today if Pat were diagnosed 4 years ago. Which players if any, would have been likely to have selected a different program?

what is the purpose of that question? do you want people to say "no players don't like sick people and would have went to ND, UCONN or stanford? at this point in time, that is not really appropriate. IMHO

 

[doggydaddy]

what is the purpose of that question? do you want people to say "no players don't like sick people and would have went to ND, UCONN or stanford? at this point in time, that is not really appropriate. IMHO

You may not like the question, but it's a valid one. Do people go to Tennessee to be coached by Pat or by the history that Pat created at Tennessee. I think we will find out starting with the 2013 class. Personally, I think they still get their share of top recruits.

 

[BigO]

You may not like the question, but it's a valid one. Do people go to Tennessee to be coached by Pat or by the history that Pat created at Tennessee. I think we will find out starting with the 2013 class. Personally, I think they still get their share of top recruits.

you may find it "valid" but that does not mean it's approprate given her condition. if you want to talk recruits then fine, but to look back and lay an inference that players might regret playing at TN is nonsense. they have have said they would not change a thing. they are lady vols for life and that is a very very elite club to be in.

and if you are wondering what our new recruits think after she stepped down check out

http://espn.go.com/high-school/girls-basketball/recruiting/on-the-trail

these new ladies will forever be legends in Knoxville for standing by the program. i agree with you about one thing----there will be more talented recruits jumping on board. TN leads the nation in attendance year after year--elite 8 finish and all. recruits know that and us fans aren't going anywhere. if you aren't from TN you just don't understand the love for the lady vols. in fact, the "All in for Holly" shirts are being printed now....

 

[doggydaddy]

you may find it "valid" but that does not mean it's approprate given her condition. if you want to talk recruits then fine, but to look back and lay an inference that players might regret playing at TN is nonsense. they have have said they would not change a thing. they are lady vols for life and that is a very very elite club to be in.

and if you are wondering what our new recruits think after she stepped down check out

http://espn.go.com/high-school/girls-basketball/recruiting/on-the-trail

these new ladies will forever be legends in Knoxville for standing by the program. i agree with you about one thing----there will be more talented recruits jumping on board. TN leads the nation in attendance year after year--elite 8 finish and all. recruits know that and us fans aren't going anywhere. if you aren't from TN you just don't understand the love for the lady vols. in fact, the "All in for Holly" shirts are being printed now....

There is nothing inappropriate about that question. It's a hypotheical question that you could have easily ignored if you didn't like it.

These new ladies will forever be legends? Please.....

You have to be from TN to understand the love a fanbase can have for a team? These same fans will be tearing into Holly like they did this season when she makes questionable substitutions again.

 

[BigO]

There is nothing inappropriate about that question. It's a hypotheical question that you could have easily ignored if you didn't like it.

These new ladies will forever be legends? Please.....

You have to be from TN to understand the love a fanbase can have for a team? These same fans will be tearing into Holly like they did this season when she makes questionable substitutions again.

again your reading comprehension skills are lacking (and i say that in the most polite way)

by legends, i mean for standing by the program. the fact that you don't get it makes it even more clear that you yourself don't understand TN basketball (which is not a shocker, as you are not a fan of the LVs on the summitt or here)

 

[JS]

again your reading comprehension skills are lacking (and i say that in the most polite way)

There is no polite way to say that. It's an insult.

And we're NOT gonna have another DD-Big O jib-jab session tonight.