Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[ramses 2.0]

I wonder if UNC would be publicly flirting with the SEC if they had quiet assurances that they were being seriously considered by the Big Ten. I suppose you could argue, it is an attempt to force the Big 10's hand, but they don't strike me as an organization that is easily strong armed.

I do think the SEC is the preferred conference but I don't think UNC would outright tell the B1G no. They will go for the best deal

 

[freescooter]

If this were about academics I guess I could see Virginia and UNC to the Big. But athletics I don’t see. Especially football. Although the Big has not always gone for big time athletic programs (see Rutgers and Maryland) they mostly have recently. If you were going to go for an academic institution why leave Berkley or Stanford when creating a west coast branch. USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington are major college football brands. UNC is a basketball brand but hasn’t won an ACC football title in 45 years. Virginia has a tie 30 years ago and another tie in 1989. That is the extend of Cav football “dominance”. Nothing says Power football like that kind of performance! I mean it isn’t Rutgers level dominance but what is?

 

[freescooter]

If I were the Big 10 I would be quietly discussing a move with Texas. I know it would be controversial but it is really a better landing spot for them.

 

[baggerbob]

There’d be one slot left after the nine teams I listed above are selected, so the remaining ACC teams would be: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake Forest, Cal, Stanford, and SMU. Which one(s) would the B12 take over UConn? I’m not sure whether any of them would be more desirable than a UConn, if we establish and consistently maintain a reasonable football level.

Wake Forest doesn’t bring much to the table, especially since Duke is already going to the B12 in this scenario, so they’ll have a presence in NC already.

BC has been terrible at sports for quite a while and they don’t get much attention in Boston.

SMU is coming off an excellent football season, but the B12 already has lots of teams in Texas, including TCU, which is basically next door to SMU.

Cal is a large public university but they haven’t had much success in the major sports for a little while now. Plus, the Bay Area doesn’t have a large college football following. They’d also be geographically isolated, especially since Stanford wouldn’t be coming with them as a travel partner.

Stanford is an excellent academic school with a phenomenal overall athletic department, but they have had recent struggles in both of the sports that generate most of the money: football and men’s basketball. As mentioned above, the Bay Area doesn’t have a large college football following, and Stanford be geographically isolated since Cal wouldn’t be coming with them as a travel partner.

Syracuse has some basketball history, but they haven’t exactly been great for a while now. They would bring a New York presence to the conference though. Their football has been okay, though they had a strong 2024.

Louisville is a poor academic school that has been good in football every so often and has had basketball success. They're also in Kentucky, which isn’t exactly a large market. They would provide a perfect geographic rival for Cincinnati.

Pitt has nibbled around the football top 25 for years, but they haven’t had much basketball success recently and don’t bring a particularly large market. They would provide a perfect geographic rival for West Virginia.

Meanwhile, UConn brings access to the NYC and New England markets, elite men’s and women’s basketball, and solid academics. The downside is we’re only a few years removed from an excessively horrific decade of football. But if UConn can start going 9-4 on a regular basis, is their profile really worse that the other eight candidates? I’m not saying they would necessarily have the strongest case, but I absolutely feel they would be in the discussion. After all, there’s a reason the B12 was having serious discussions about adding UConn a year ago.

The conference that will end up being gone if
One of the 4 is gone will be the Big 12. They have no real value to cable or steaming TV. More then likely schools like Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas St, Texas A@M
Would join the ACC, because Notre Dame would probably stay.

 

[ZooCougar]

I do think the SEC is the preferred conference but I don't think UNC would outright tell the B1G no. They will go for the best deal

The B1G is where you want to be.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

The conference that will end up being gone if
One of the 4 is gone will be the Big 12. They have no real value to cable or steaming TV. More then likely schools like Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas St, Texas A@M
Would join the ACC, because Notre Dame would probably stay.

Disagree. The Big12's middle and lower tier schools are more valuable than the ACC's. So, once top ACC schools leave, the movement of the middle ACC schools to the Big12 (or some sort of merger/collaboration) would occur because ESPN will drastically reduce the ACC payouts.

 

[NH Husky]

The most recent moves by B1G and SEC seems like they have had some agreement as to respective territories. Seems 10 years ago B1G could have snatched up Texas yet they didn’t. Their footprints do not overlap.

B1G moves indicate population centers and potential are attractive to them. Rutgers (NYC), Maryland (DC), and Southern California. Washington and Oregon brought in at half possibly to appease Cals. Only trend bucker is Nebraska.

SEC looked at population, cultural fit, and football reputation. Texas schools, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

If both conferences intend to get to 20, B1G needs 2, SEC needs 4.

Schools meeting criteria to each, are not overlapping, and if they are conceding markets, these schools may have appeal to each:

B1G
Notre Dame, UConn, Arizona, Virginia

SEC
North Carolina, Florida St, Clemson, NC State, Georgia Tech, West Virginia

Arizona and Virginia could go either way

Wildcards: Colorado, Utah, Miami

The likes of Syracuse, BC, Pitt had their chance to show there stuff and couldn’t make the grade.

I know it’s pure speculation but I can’t help but think having the best athletic department (by a huge margin) in NY/NE and demonstration of sports improvements when provided the resources, UConn must have significant appeal.

 

[Ha Who]

The most recent moves by B1G and SEC seems like they have had some agreement as to respective territories. Seems 10 years ago B1G could have snatched up Texas yet they didn’t. Their footprints do not overlap.

B1G moves indicate population centers and potential are attractive to them. Rutgers (NYC), Maryland (DC), and Southern California. Washington and Oregon brought in at half possibly to appease Cals. Only trend bucker is Nebraska.

SEC looked at population, cultural fit, and football reputation. Texas schools, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

If both conferences intend to get to 20, B1G needs 2, SEC needs 4.

Schools meeting criteria to each, are not overlapping, and if they are conceding markets, these schools may have appeal to each:

B1G
Notre Dame, UConn, Arizona, Virginia

SEC
North Carolina, Florida St, Clemson, NC State, Georgia Tech, West Virginia

Arizona and Virginia could go either way

Wildcards: Colorado, Utah, Miami

The likes of Syracuse, BC, Pitt had their chance to show there stuff and couldn’t make the grade.

I know it’s pure speculation but I can’t help but think having the best athletic department (by a huge margin) in NY/NE and demonstration of sports improvements when provided the resources, UConn must have significant appeal.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

The most recent moves by B1G and SEC seems like they have had some agreement as to respective territories. Seems 10 years ago B1G could have snatched up Texas yet they didn’t. Their footprints do not overlap.

B1G moves indicate population centers and potential are attractive to them. Rutgers (NYC), Maryland (DC), and Southern California. Washington and Oregon brought in at half possibly to appease Cals. Only trend bucker is Nebraska.

SEC looked at population, cultural fit, and football reputation. Texas schools, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

If both conferences intend to get to 20, B1G needs 2, SEC needs 4.

Schools meeting criteria to each, are not overlapping, and if they are conceding markets, these schools may have appeal to each:

B1G
Notre Dame, UConn, Arizona, Virginia

SEC
North Carolina, Florida St, Clemson, NC State, Georgia Tech, West Virginia

Arizona and Virginia could go either way

Wildcards: Colorado, Utah, Miami

The likes of Syracuse, BC, Pitt had their chance to show there stuff and couldn’t make the grade.

I know it’s pure speculation but I can’t help but think having the best athletic department (by a huge margin) in NY/NE and demonstration of sports improvements when provided the resources, UConn must have significant appeal.

Come on man there’s no world where UConn is in a power 2 conference, I hate to admit.

 

[B1GEast]

Come on man there’s no world where UConn is in a power 2 conference, I hate to admit.

That really depends on what the strategy is both UConn and Syracuse could lock up the NY markets and give Rutgers and Penn State a rivalry.

I'm not going to suggest that UConn will be in the B1G any time soon, but to say that there's no path is not totally true.

A lot would need to happen, the B1G would have to go beyond 20 teams, like 24, and the ACC would have to totally explode.

And the NCAA Basketball deal would facilitate that as well if the numbers are huge, which I think will be.

It's not a high probability, but the unlikely path exists.

 

[ZooCougar]

Disagree. The Big12's middle and lower tier schools are more valuable than the ACC's. So, once top ACC schools leave, the movement of the middle ACC schools to the Big12 (or some sort of merger/collaboration) would occur because ESPN will drastically reduce the ACC payouts.

That’s not true at all. The Big 12’s middle is in in nowheresville.

Even still it’s not like it matters. They are just rearranging deck chairs.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

That’s not true at all. The Big 12’s middle is in in nowheresville.

Even still it’s not like it matters. They are just rearranging deck chairs.

They might be in nowheresville, but they have more dedicated fan bases and get better tv ratings. Look it up.

 

[billybud]

We have seen where this is going for some years...The SEC is paid more, gets better time slots, and more CFP spots than the ACC. Those are the perks that SEC members have accumulated that ACC members are incentivized to want to join. Exactly the same stands with the B1G versus ACC.

The ACC & B12 will lose value. That is the nature of the current business structure.

There are really only two broadcasters that solo lease entire conferences. One conf adds members and the other loses access to them. The limited number of networks only add and subtract rights value. Add rights value to the SEC/B1G and subtract from the ACC.

In my localized view, the SEC seems much less interested in being a "national conference" geographically then maybe the Big Ten. The SEC seems perfectly happy in their moated southern stronghold.

 

[Viet Vet]

UConn is perpetually stuck in the middle of the New York and Boston TV markets. Let’s face it…the Hartford/New Haven market pales by comparison. What do we (UConn) have to do to cannibalize viewers from the Boston (less likely) and New York (aka Fairfield County) markets? Win, win, win.

Greenwich, Stamford, Darien, New Canaan, Westport are populated by “winners”. Most of their kids don’t aspire to go to State U. But their parents love to associate with success.

Just win, and downstate CT will ultimately come around.

 

[NH Husky]

Come on man there’s no world where UConn is in a power 2 conference, I hate to admit.

I understand where you’re coming from, the same could’ve been said about Rutgers 15 years ago.

I also think this whole current setup is on the verge of a major blow up and I’m not sure where I’d want us to be. The influence of money paying players is going to turn sour soon. Someone posted a list of program values and Texas was way above others. How long are traditional powerhouses like Alabama gonna play second fiddle to them? And they’d have to pay so much to keep up with football their other programs would surely suffer.

I suspect that during the next decade we will see huge changes. How we view content. And a split between football, hoops, and other sports. I would be content with tier 1 hoops, tier 2 football, and a mix of remaining sports trying to keep baseball, hockey, and soccers (m & w) tier 1.

But until then, let’s see what happens.

 

[ZooCougar]

They might be in nowheresville, but they have more dedicated fan bases and get better tv ratings. Look it up.

And the only ACC school that has a landing spot is UNC. People keep saying the ACC is going to break up. But it isn't. You're in fantasy land.

 

[CL82]

I understand where you’re coming from the same would’ve been said about Rutgers 15 years ago

Maybe, but not by those in the know. Rutgers was quietly groomed by the Big Ten to be an acceptable candidate. No promises, mind you, just direction on things that they would need to change to even be considered a possibility.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

And the only ACC school that has a landing spot is UNC. People keep saying the ACC is going to break up. But it isn't. You're in fantasy land.

Got this bookmarked and will check back in with you when the fourth ACC school departs.

 

[freescooter]

The most recent moves by B1G and SEC seems like they have had some agreement as to respective territories. Seems 10 years ago B1G could have snatched up Texas yet they didn’t. Their footprints do not overlap.

B1G moves indicate population centers and potential are attractive to them. Rutgers (NYC), Maryland (DC), and Southern California. Washington and Oregon brought in at half possibly to appease Cals. Only trend bucker is Nebraska.

SEC looked at population, cultural fit, and football reputation. Texas schools, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

If both conferences intend to get to 20, B1G needs 2, SEC needs 4.

Schools meeting criteria to each, are not overlapping, and if they are conceding markets, these schools may have appeal to each:

B1G
Notre Dame, UConn, Arizona, Virginia

SEC
North Carolina, Florida St, Clemson, NC State, Georgia Tech, West Virginia

Arizona and Virginia could go either way

Wildcards: Colorado, Utah, Miami

The likes of Syracuse, BC, Pitt had their chance to show there stuff and couldn’t make the grade.

I know it’s pure speculation but I can’t help but think having the best athletic department (by a huge margin) in NY/NE and demonstration of sports improvements when provided the resources, UConn must have significant appeal.

It does seem like there is some agreement among the Big10 and SEC but it might be more just a case of serendipity. As far as Texas goes the world was different. The Longhorn net was valuable. The Big wouldn’t let them keep it.

I think the Big 10 has been after “programs.” The exceptions are Rutgers and Maryland which were simply money grabs when cable was king. Not so much any more. Those are 2 schools that are in pro areas. They are and will be an afterthought most of the time. Rutgers Carrie’s the New York market about as strongly as UMass Carrie’s the Boston market. Maryland draws about 35,000. Drew 42000 for USC but that was the only game over 40,000 last year. They are neither DC’s nor Baltimore’s teams.

 

[ZooCougar]

Got this bookmarked and will check back in with you when the fourth ACC school departs.

Sure thing. You’re just as bad as MHVER.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Sure thing. You’re just as bad as MHVER.

Nobody is as bad as him.

 

[ZooCougar]

Nobody is as bad as him.

You are if you think that some school is dumb enough to pay a $75M exit fee in 2031 to make less money in the Big 12.

Everyone will stay put and count their exit fee and then they will drink the Big 12's milkshake and have West Virginia or something. You're lawst.

 

[NH Husky]

Maybe, but not by those in the know. Rutgers was quietly groomed by the Big Ten to be an acceptable candidate. No promises, mind you, just direction on things that they would need to change to even be considered a possibility.

Not hard to believe. Have to also wonder what other “secret grooming” has/is happening. New England and a good chunk of New York metro is an awful big carrot.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

You are if you think that some school is dumb enough to pay a $75M exit fee in 2031 to make less money in the Big 12.

Everyone will stay put and count their exit fee and then they will drink the Big 12's milkshake and have West Virginia or something. You're lawst.

Stick with the program... 4 or more ACC schools will land in the SEC/BIG10. ESPN will then devalue the ACC contract, which will leave the remaining schools to have to petition for the Big12 as their tv valuations will be less than the Big12. In 2031 the Big12 payout per school is $50m (that's what their contract starting next year calls for). Once the ACC loses its top schools, the ACC remnants are likely to fetch half the $50m figure (given that the top 4 ACC programs drive about 50% of the overall ACC tv valuations). If you do the math, it's only a three year payback to pay the 2031 exit fee. So, schools like Louisville, VA Tech, etc will be scrambling to get into the Big12.

 

[ZooCougar]

Stick with the program... 4 or more ACC schools will land in the SEC/BIG10. ESPN will then devalue the ACC contract, which will leave the remaining schools to have to petition for the Big12 as their tv valuations will be less than the Big12. In 2031 the Big12 payout per school is $50m (that's what their contract starting next year calls for). Once the ACC loses its top schools, the ACC remnants are likely to fetch half the $50m figure (given that the top 4 ACC programs drive about 50% of the overall ACC tv valuations). If you do the math, it's only a three year payback to pay the 2031 exit fee. So, schools like Louisville, VA Tech, etc will be scrambling to get into the Big12.

Haha they don’t have $50M per school to distribute. Stop it.