Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[bendm]

What's next could be even more consequential. Major media rights deals for the Big Ten (2030), Big 12 (2031) and SEC (2034) are set to expire -- as are the NCAA men's basketball tournament and College Football Playoff contracts, both in 2032.”

A conference killing meteor is hurtling towards the ACC and they know it and I’m savoring every minute. The expiration of the P3 deals coincides with the ACC exit fee dropping to $75mill. Once the P3 have bolstered their memberships with the most valuable ACC schools they will be locked into new tv deals with high exit fees by the time the ACC GOR finally expires in 2036. No one can/will be leaving the P3 to join the watered down ACC. In order of worst to best my only hopes are:
1) the P3 doesn’t breakaway leaving us stranded forever
2) there are at least 4 ACC teams leftover (BC, Cuse, Wake, ?) that we can merge with plus USF, Memphis, Tulane so we finally have a home for all sports.
3) those 7 schools merge with the BE into an 18 team conference (8 football/10 Olympic)

 

[Exit 4]

2) there are at least 4 ACC teams leftover (BC, Cuse, Wake, ?) that we can merge with plus USF, Memphis, Tulane so we finally have a home for all sports.
3) those 7 schools merge with the BE into an 18 team conference (8 football/10 Olympic)

The problem with the hybrid conf is that it wont be granted a seat at that P3 table. Instead the hybrid will be in standing with the PAC 12 resurrection zombie as some sort of Tier 2 band. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen and I am not saying the hybrid is a bad outcome. Just saying it might not "save" basketball in the long run.

Btw, throw SMU into that hybrid pool.

Also, the hybrid will immediately beset with an internal power struggle between the football and basketball schools which will result in all of the football schools working to get out starting day 2. And the bottom teams of the BE are rather resource poor with a gap that will only widen. Might be more tolerable if in the process the BE have nots are dropped. Maybe only 4 or 6 of the BE schools move forward.

 

[JMick]

A conference killing meteor is hurtling towards the ACC and they know it and I’m savoring every minute. The expiration of the P3 deals coincides with the ACC exit fee dropping to $75mill. Once the P3 have bolstered their memberships with the most valuable ACC schools they will be locked into new tv deals with high exit fees by the time the ACC GOR finally expires in 2036. No one can/will be leaving the P3 to join the watered down ACC. In order of worst to best my only hopes are:
1) the P3 doesn’t breakaway leaving us stranded forever
2) there are at least 4 ACC teams leftover (BC, Cuse, Wake, ?) that we can merge with plus USF, Memphis, Tulane so we finally have a home for all sports.
3) those 7 schools merge with the BE into an 18 team conference (8 football/10 Olympic)

2&3 are not very good scenarios. The best scenario is that the SEC and B1G want to keep the number of mouths to feed down, we backfill ACC and the only teams not left in it are UNC, Clemson and FSU. Then a few basketball powers from the big east break off and join it because they see the writing on the wall and it guarantees NCAA tournament access.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I’ve always said the easiest solution is to just split CFB from the NCAA and go NFL Lite. Basketball and Olympic sports go back to regional conferences.

 

[Exit 4]

I’ve always said the easiest solution is to just split CFB from the NCAA and go NFL Lite. Basketball and Olympic sports go back to regional conferences.

Love it....won't happen if the P2 schools start really racking up the MBB and WBB final fours and championships. The P2 wont see a need for a reset!

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Love it....won't happen if the P2 schools start really racking up the MBB and WBB final fours and championships. The P2 wont see a need for a reset!

As currently constructed I agree with you. I just wonder how long a Rutgers gets to play big boy football when FSU and Clemson do not.

 

[ZooCougar]

A conference killing meteor is hurtling towards the ACC and they know it and I’m savoring every minute. The expiration of the P3 deals coincides with the ACC exit fee dropping to $75mill. Once the P3 have bolstered their memberships with the most valuable ACC schools they will be locked into new tv deals with high exit fees by the time the ACC GOR finally expires in 2036. No one can/will be leaving the P3 to join the watered down ACC. In order of worst to best my only hopes are:
1) the P3 doesn’t breakaway leaving us stranded forever
2) there are at least 4 ACC teams leftover (BC, Cuse, Wake, ?) that we can merge with plus USF, Memphis, Tulane so we finally have a home for all sports.
3) those 7 schools merge with the BE into an 18 team conference (8 football/10 Olympic)

If the departures are that drastic I think the new ACC will look a great deal like the old Big East minus the Catholics. No idea what Notre Dame will do.

The only school with a solid landing spot at this moment in time is UNC. That's the rumor with heavy credibility. If we want to be in the new ACC we better hope that changes.

 

[CL82]

If the departures are that drastic I think the new ACC will look a great deal like the old Big East minus the Catholics. No idea what Notre Dame will do.

The only school with a solid landing spot at this moment in time is UNC. That's the rumor with heavy credibility. If we want to be in the new ACC we better hope that changes.

Why who do you see backfilling the UNC spot? I think we would be a very good fit for that athletically, not that that has really mattered in expansion.

 

[Jetskies]

is the big east lifeboat for UConn, taking on water?
meaning, it's been a blessing but in the changing world, at what point are we no longer better off in the Big East + Indy, vs joining a frankenstein'd ACC rejects + Tulane/USF/etc. conference?

or will we see a revival of FBS independence, and other schools come join us in the wilderness...

(assumption above is no P4 invite, ever)

 

[ZooCougar]

Why who do you see backfilling the UNC spot? I think we would be a very good fit for that athletically, not that that has really mattered in expansion.

Supposedly WVU was approached.

As long as Clemson, FSU and Miami are in charge we aren’t getting in.

 

[ZooCougar]

is the big east lifeboat for UConn, taking on water?
meaning, it's been a blessing but in the changing world, at what point are we no longer better off in the Big East + Indy, vs joining a frankenstein'd ACC rejects + Tulane/USF/etc. conference?

or will we see a revival of FBS independence, and other schools come join us in the wilderness...

(assumption above is no P4 invite, ever)

I’d say we are far better off in the Big East as a football Indy than being in any G6 conference.

 

[ZooCougar]

The problem with the hybrid conf is that it wont be granted a seat at that P3 table. Instead the hybrid will be in standing with the PAC 12 resurrection zombie as some sort of Tier 2 band. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen and I am not saying the hybrid is a bad outcome. Just saying it might not "save" basketball in the long run.

Btw, throw SMU into that hybrid pool.

Also, the hybrid will immediately beset with an internal power struggle between the football and basketball schools which will result in all of the football schools working to get out starting day 2. And the bottom teams of the BE are rather resource poor with a gap that will only widen. Might be more tolerable if in the process the BE have nots are dropped. Maybe only 4 or 6 of the BE schools move forward.

The Big East isn’t doing the hybrid again.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The Big East isn’t doing the hybrid again.

No conference is ever doing hybrid again. People need to stop trying to make it a thing.

 

[CL82]

No conference is ever doing hybrid again. People need to stop trying to make it a thing.

Largely agree, although isn't Gonzaga a basketball only member for the Pac 12?

 

[HuskyHawk]

Largely agree, although isn't Gonzaga a basketball only member for the Pac 12?

OK, no conference that isn't desperate for relevance and survival. The current Pac is like the conference equivalent or a Junkie looking anywhere for a score.

 

[Hoophound]

OK, no conference that isn't desperate for relevance and survival. The current Pac is like the conference equivalent or a Junkie looking anywhere for a score.

I could see hybrid happening again if it works for self preservation. All that matters is the money and the access. It’s unlikely, but a scenario where the ACC leftovers (including us in there) need basketball strength and pull in Nova and Georgetown or SJU is possible. Maybe 2-4 good bball schools.

 

[freescooter]

I

OK, no conference that isn't desperate for relevance and survival. The current Pac is like the conference equivalent or a Junkie looking anywhere for a score.

think that is not true. It will very quickly establish itself as the best G6 and be very close if not equal to the NBE in basketball. It won’t have the drag of the legacy members like Seton Hall, DePaul and Georgetown who collect their income without producing anything. If you are honest the Hall and DePaul are mid majors.The late Ronald Reagan would call them the welfare queens of the NBE

 

[ZooCougar]

Largely agree, although isn't Gonzaga a basketball only member for the Pac 12?

One team doesn't make it a hybrid. And it's not a Power conf like the Big East was.

 

[bendm]

Btw, throw SMU into that hybrid pool

Would gladly take them as the 4th leftover ACC school to merge with but I wouldn’t be surprised if SMU/Cal/Stanford would prefer the new PAC to the new new BE

 

[bendm]

OK, no conference that isn't desperate for relevance and survival. The current Pac is like the conference equivalent or a Junkie looking anywhere for a score.

Then what does that make the American? The PAC is easily going to be the best Group of whatever conference for football and bball.

The old BE didn’t do it right before. Gotta sell off the football and bball tv rights separately. the leftover ACC schools plus the best BE programs are worth more together. It’s do or die at this point beggars can’t be choosers

 

[bendm]

I could see hybrid happening again if it works for self preservation. All that matters is the money and the access. It’s unlikely, but a scenario where the ACC leftovers (including us in there) need basketball strength and pull in Nova and Georgetown or SJU is possible. Maybe 2-4 good bball schools.

Cuse, BC, Wake, SMU, UConn, USF, Memphis, Tulane St John’s, Nova, Gtown, Marquette.

 

[bendm]

The best scenario is that the SEC and B1G want to keep the number of mouths to feed down, we backfill ACC and the only teams not left in it are UNC, Clemson and FSU. Then a few basketball powers from the big east break off and join it because they see the writing on the wall and it guarantees NCAA tournament access

This is absolutely the best case realistic scenario I just don’t want to get my hopes up because It’s also very realistic that the P3 each go to 20 schools and ND finally joins the BIG for Olympic sports and a football scheduling deal. That would leave 7 ACC schools: Cuse, BC, Wake, SMU, Cal, Stanford, and who? UVA?

 

[Hamms30]

I'm starting to lean towards the side others have taken of a Tier 1 / Tier 2 Premier League idea. Take the 136 FBS teams and going Tier 1 64 teams - 8 divisions of 8 teams all play each other. Winner goes to College Football playoffs. All #2's have a playoff for the last 4 spots. Bottom 8 teams have a playoff and losers get relegated to Tier 2 where the other 72 teams are and split up into 8 divisions of 9. Division winners all play a playoff to get promoted to Tier 1. All the media outlets negotiate collectively for broadcasting both tiers and payout structures are set up accordingly.

Football has gotten too big for the rest of college sports and at this rate, soon the bubble is going to pop and bring everything down with it. Carve them out and then the conferences can all stay the way they are for all the other sports where travel and logistics is a much bigger deal than the sport that only plays once a week.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'll stand my previous prediction, the ACC isn't going away and isn't going to lose significant members. The media rights simply aren't there for the SEC and B1G to expand. If they do it will likely come at a reduction to existing members. Nobody is giving UVM a full B1G share. Clemson and FSU probably won't get a full SEC share. So all these projections of a P3 fall flat. It will stay at 4.

I mocked the Pac and yes the American is even worse. Why? Because UCF, SMU, Houston, Cinci aren't part of "G" anymore. They did add WSU and Oregon State. The American is even worse of course. UConn has a shot to go to the ACC if football stays strong. Our best bet is that they lose only two and add UConn and USF.

 

[Kolumbo]

I'm starting to lean towards the side others have taken of a Tier 1 / Tier 2 Premier League idea. Take the 136 FBS teams and going Tier 1 64 teams - 8 divisions of 8 teams all play each other. Winner goes to College Football playoffs. All #2's have a playoff for the last 4 spots. Bottom 8 teams have a playoff and losers get relegated to Tier 2 where the other 72 teams are and split up into 8 divisions of 9. Division winners all play a playoff to get promoted to Tier 1. All the media outlets negotiate collectively for broadcasting both tiers and payout structures are set up accordingly.

Football has gotten too big for the rest of college sports and at this rate, soon the bubble is going to pop and bring everything down with it. Carve them out and then the conferences can all stay the way they are for all the other sports where travel and logistics is a much bigger deal than the sport that only plays once a week.

Current SEC teams could be spread over 2 divisions or say 4 divisions.
2 divisions - SEC teams would get 2 to 4 teams in the CFP. Too limited
4 divisions - SEC teams could get 4 to 8 teams in the CFP. This would essentially destroy the SEC though and eliminate a ton of conference games
Neither scenario would fly with the SEC. Imagine Auburn and Oklahoma getting relegated