Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell. | Page 435 | The Boneyard

Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

FWIW, here are the current betting odds on the next B12 addition:

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which school will be the next to accept an invite to the Big 12?

  • Arizona +300
  • Arizona State +400
  • Utah +600
  • UConn +700
  • Gonzaga +1200
  • San Diego State +1500
  • Memphis +2000
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B12 14th Team Expansion Odds
 
businesslawyer said:
Here’s what we do know — the XII DID NOT have a completed plan to take us if CO left the PAC and joined. Because if it did, we would have been invited and accepted by now.

No one knows what will happen next, but the most common hypothesis for how we were going to get in is DOA.
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Correct. If rumors are to believed, we need to wait for Fox to approve going to 16 members. Then we need to hope no one beats us out for spot 16. It’s quite a tangled web with no guarantees.

Yormark’s desire for New York exposure is the key for us. I hope he’s really married to the concept and is able to support his case when explaining why it matters.
 
businesslawyer said:
Here’s what we do know — the XII DID NOT have a completed plan to take us if CO left the PAC and joined. Because if it did, we would have been invited and accepted by now.

No one knows what will happen next, but the most common hypothesis for how we were going to get in is DOA.
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Pretty much. I think everyone was so hinged on Colorado moving or not moving, when that started to unfold, it got exciting. Of course nothing goes as expected except the end which we all sadly can expect.

I think we all have different ways of dealing with letdown and frustration.
 
Hoophound said:
Correct. If rumors are to believed, we need to wait for Fox to approve going to 16 members. Then we need to hope no one beats us out for spot 16. It’s quite a tangled web with no guarantees.

Yormark’s desire for New York exposure is the key for us. I hope he’s really married to the concept and is able to support his case when explaining why it matters.
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But to believe the rumors of your first paragraph, one has to believe that genius BY didn’t clear all easily foreseeable scenarios of Colorado joining with Fox ahead of time. That seems somewhat hard to believe, doesn’t it?
 
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businesslawyer said:
But to believe the rumors of your first paragraph, one has to believe that genius BY didn’t clear all easily foreseeable scenarios of Colorado joining with Fox ahead of time. That seems somewhat hard to believe, doesn’t it?
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It does. However, if certain schools are in play that weren’t expected to be, that might explain it. I could see the Big 12 going to 18 or 20 if they could get some or all of these big schools: Colorado, UConn, Arizona, ASU, Oregon, Washington and others.

Colorado leaving the PAC made a lot of crazy things possible. New York is our key feature that makes us entirely unique with all of these great options possibly opening up for the B12. Regardless, if we aren’t getting in on this round, then the more upheaval the better.
 
businesslawyer said:
Here’s what we do know — the XII DID NOT have a completed plan to take us if CO left the PAC and joined. Because if it did, we would have been invited and accepted by now.
Expand ...

But that never made sense from the start. Why would the B12 quickly add UConn when Wash Ore Ariz were still on the board?
 
businesslawyer said:
But to believe the rumors of your first paragraph, one has to believe that genius BY didn’t clear all easily foreseeable scenarios of Colorado joining with Fox ahead of time. That seems somewhat hard to believe, doesn’t it?
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BL,

I could well be wrong but I personally believe that it is entirely plausible that none of the parties involved foresaw the possibility of Colorado departing the P-12 at this time with the P-12 still without a media deal.
 
Hoophound said:
Correct. If rumors are to believed, we need to wait for Fox to approve going to 16 members. Then we need to hope no one beats us out for spot 16. It’s quite a tangled web with no guarantees.

Yormark’s desire for New York exposure is the key for us. I hope he’s really married to the concept and is able to support his case when explaining why it matters.
Expand ...

We also need to know what FOX would give us, specifically, in an addition scenario. We know they went pro-rata for P5's, but we're likely not.
 
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Vowelguy said:
But that never made sense from the start. Why would the B12 quickly add UConn when Wash Ore Ariz were still on the board?
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I don’t think Washington/Oregon are in play.
Everyone looking out for their best interests.
I think fans would like it but I suspect their ultimate aim is BIG. Just like BY can shake a stick, so can the schools. If BIG wants a western flank, these schools are saying we have options now.

Everyone’s playing chess with each other and they all have different boards.
 
Stinger92860 said:
Why so?
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Maybe not, B12 thinking they can hit a Grand Slam, and when they are finished, we are still there, and they take us in. Our greatest value was as a threat to the Pac10 schools. B12 and Yormark going to reward us when all other adds are made
 
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I have a bit of a different perspective on this. I don't think Colorado (and possibly Arizona) are running to the Big12 as much as they are running away from the PAC. It's quite probable they are doing so because they feel that the departures from the PAC are not over. The loss of USC and UCLA were absolutely huge and if you believe some combination of Cal., Stanford, Oregon, Utah and Washington are at risk, then you have to make the move. Now couple that with the eventual departures from the ACC as the GOR nears expiration and conferences on both coasts are in upheaval.

This is going to be a long game and UCONN probably doesn't move this year. But within the next ten years there will be the BiG and SEC at a different level than everyone else (at least in terms of money). My hope is that the other conferences will restructure along some lines of regional alliances.

FWIW, if the choice for the Big12 is between Arizona and UCONN I don't see UCONN winning that bake off.
 
uconndogs said:
I have a bit of a different perspective on this. I don't think Colorado (and possibly Arizona) are running to the Big12 as much as they are running away from the PAC. It's quite probable they are doing so because they feel that the departures from the PAC are not over. The loss of USC and UCLA were absolutely huge and if you believe some combination of Cal., Stanford, Oregon, Utah and Washington are at risk, then you have to make the move. Now couple that with the eventual departures from the ACC as the GOR nears expiration and conferences on both coasts are in upheaval.

This is going to be a long game and UCONN probably doesn't move this year. But within the next ten years there will be the BiG and SEC at a different level than everyone else (at least in terms of money). My hope is that the other conferences will restructure along some lines of regional alliances.

FWIW, if the choice for the Big12 is between Arizona and UCONN I don't see UCONN winning that bake off.
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If the choice is UConn vs any PAC school (minus maybe WSU or OSU) we are out. Our advantage, if you can call it that, is that any more PAC defections likely destroys that conference. Feels similar to the OBE football situation. I truly believe we need to hope the PAC gets a decent media rights deal and survives.
 
Why does it have to be either or? I truly don't follow the numerical scheduling arguments(12 v13, 16 v 15), but wouldn't you add value for values sake? UConn has significant value, and FB will succeed.
 
pepband99 said:
We also need to know what FOX would give us, specifically, in an addition scenario. We know they went pro-rata for P5's, but we're likely not.
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I was thinking about this... I believe ESPN is paying $20 mil per Big 12 school, and FOX is paying $11.9 mil per Big 12 school. Let's say FOX was gonna pay $7 mil per school for the new Big East contract with UCONN (pay raise due to inflation/UConn's addition/extra content/good ratings). So paying pro-rata for a Big 12 UConn would only end of being $5 mil more than they were gonna pay for a BE UConn (without football). FOX can then pay a UConn-less BE $6 mil per school, saving them an extra $10 mil per year, which more than makes up for the $ difference and having to split content with ESPN.
 
UConnTrumbull said:
If the choice is UConn vs any PAC school (minus maybe WSU or OSU) we are out. Our advantage, if you can call it that, is that any more PAC defections likely destroys that conference. Feels similar to the OBE football situation. I truly believe we need to hope the PAC gets a decent media rights deal and survives.
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Agree. The problem is why would the PAC get a good deal at this point? The Big12 at least offers a level of certainty that the PAC cannot offer at this point.

It's interesting to me that California is something like the 10th largest economy in the WORLD and it loves college football. The BiG waltzed in and gobbled up the premier end of that market and I don't think their done. As an aside, there is little doubt that the SEC and BiG have their eyes set on FLA, NC, and Virginia and will pounce as soon as there is a workable solution to the GOR with the ACC.
 
uconndogs said:
Agree. The problem is why would the PAC get a good deal at this point? The Big12 at least offers a level of certainty that the PAC cannot offer at this point.

It's interesting to me that California is something like the 10th largest economy in the WORLD and it loves college football. The BiG waltzed in and gobbled up the premier end of that market and I don't think their done. As an aside, there is little doubt that the SEC and BiG have their eyes set on FLA, NC, and Virginia and will pounce as soon as there is a workable solution to the GOR with the ACC.
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The SEC already has a presence in Florida. I do fully believe however that they've wanted a presence in Virginia and North Carolina (the two southern states where the Southeast conference doesn't have member schools) for a while.
 
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Dooooooomed said:
I was thinking about this... I believe ESPN is paying $20 mil per Big 12 school, and FOX is paying $11.9 mil per Big 12 school. Let's say FOX was gonna pay $7 mil per school for the new Big East contract with UCONN (pay raise due to inflation/UConn's addition/extra content/good ratings). So paying pro-rata for a Big 12 UConn would only end of being $5 mil more than they were gonna pay for a BE UConn (without football). FOX can then pay a UConn-less BE $6 mil per school, saving them an extra $10 mil per year, which more than makes up for the $ difference and having to split content with ESPN.
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This is exactly the thought process. It is the same engine that drove the ESPN big east raids.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
The SEC already has a presence in Florida. I do fully believe however that they've wanted a presence in Virginia and North Carolina (the two southern states where the Southeast conference doesn't have member schools) for a while.
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I realize that, but FSU wants out and I think they have the clout to get out. The SEC will not want the BiG in Florida so I think FSU ends up in the SEC much to the dismay of Gator fans.
 
Vowelguy said:
But that never made sense from the start. Why would the B12 quickly add UConn when Wash Ore Ariz were still on the board?
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Washington and Oregon want nothing to do with the B12 imo, they would rather have uneven revenue sharing for a few more years in a dying PAC or do what Notre Dame is doing than ever joining the B12, somewhat the same with Utah although I think if the PAC is dead (Ore and Wash leave) they'd change up and join the B12, which is why I think we will at the very least be the 3rd team added along side ASU and Arizona.
 
noeynox said:
A lot of this is haters from schools like Memphis, ECU, USF, and fans of teams like Cincinnati and UCF who have yet to play a game as a P5 school.
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Fortunately, Yormak has said he’s more interested in what programs can become, rather than what they’ve been. Any state that doesn’t produce a ton of football players will always be at the mercy of who is their coach. There is a long way to fall when you don’t reside in fertile recruiting grounds. USC under achieving looks a lot different than Colorado underachieving.
Utah has hired well and reaped the benefits. One bad hire and they drop like an anchor. Current football success should count for something, but you’d hope people think long-term with their decisions. Is doubling down on southern Arizona a good long term investment? Maybe we are in a climate aberration, but those temps for well over a month are insane.
 
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