Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[Vowelguy]

And Boise State is eyeing the Big 12 in 2-4 years. Once they go, MWC is going to be in a rough position. Secure a safe landing spot now before it happens (kind of like what UConn did).

The AAC is more stable than the MW?

 

[shizzle787]

last week you said the AAC would stop after adding AFA and CSU

Things change hourly.

 

[Storrs South]

The AAC is more stable than the MW?

any conference that has asymmetrical revenue sharing is unstable. MWC had to give a sweetheart deal for BSU not to leave because of their importance to the brand and value of the MWC.

If BSU goes, the whole conference goes since CBS has had the opportunity yet continually chose not to raise the profile and $ paid out to the conference. BSU is on the precipice of leaving for the Big 12 in a couple years. Once they go, MWC will become CUSA which is is why MWC has tried to avoid their departure with asymmetrical revenue sharing but time is up.

 

[Vowelguy]

any conference that has asymmetrical revenue sharing is unstable. MWC had to give a sweetheart deal for BSU not to leave because of their importance to the brand and value of the MWC.

If BSU goes, the whole conference goes since CBS has had the opportunity yet continually chose not to raise the profile and $ paid out to the conference. BSU is on the precipice of leaving for the Big 12 in a couple years. Once they go, MWC will become CUSA which is is why MWC has tried to avoid their departure with asymmetrical revenue sharing but time is up.

Thanks.

But where are they going to go? The PAC doesnt want them, and they're too far away from any other conference to be attractive on a large scale. Even if they lose these 2 + Boise, there are still 8 schools in need of a home. And they can pick off the reconstituting WAC if they need more teams.

In contrast the AAC has become an ungainly mess of mediocre teams (even by G5 standards), spread out over a large area, and with several competitors that can offer lower travel costs, local rivalries, and possibly even better quality. (Coastal, App St, and ULL of the Sun Belt are as good as what AAC 2.0 has, if not better.)

 

[shizzle787]

Thanks.

But where are they going to go? The PAC doesnt want them, and they're too far away from any other conference to be attractive on a large scale. Even if they lose these 2 + Boise, there are still 8 schools in need of a home. And they can pick off the reconstituting WAC if they need more teams.

In contrast the AAC has become an ungainly mess of mediocre teams (even by G5 standards), spread out over a large area, and with several competitors that can offer lower travel costs, local rivalries, and possibly even better quality. (Coastal, App St, and ULL of the Sun Belt are as good as what AAC 2.0 has, if not better.)

The problem with the Sun Belt is that 6 of the programs are really bad. Arkansas State is the only other program that is mildly competitive.

 

[Storrs South]

Thanks.

But where are they going to go? The PAC doesnt want them, and they're too far away from any other conference to be attractive on a large scale. Even if they lose these 2 + Boise, there are still 8 schools in need of a home. And they can pick off the reconstituting WAC if they need more teams.

In contrast the AAC has become an ungainly mess of mediocre teams (even by G5 standards), spread out over a large area, and with several competitors that can offer lower travel costs, local rivalries, and possibly even better quality. (Coastal, App St, and ULL of the Sun Belt are as good as what AAC 2.0 has, if not better.)

The Big XII is the rumor for Boise State, but obviously a lot can change. But if not the Big XII you are correct they would have no other P5 conference interested (PAC 12 and Big 10 no due academics, ACC / SEC too far and not enough value to TV deal).

While the AAC is a mess (a lot of dead weight programs, terrible travel considerations, no natural rivals, all for not a lot of TV money in the grand scheme of things), it does have some of the best remaining football programs in the G5 and in better timezones for more viewers than MWC.

ESPN also appears to be sucking up as many college football rights as possible while competitors (NBC, CBS, FOX) appear to be shying away. I don't know why, but the competition seem more interested in EPL, Golf, and other things. This will likely become more apparent when all P5 conference excluding ACC are up for negotiations on their deals in the next 3-4 years. Let's hope for the sake of UConn (FB & CBS, BB & FOX) that the competition still wants in on live sports or that big tech finally gets involved.

So if you're Air Force or CSU and AAC / ESPN tell you that TV money can be doubled in the AAC, probably a hard no especially when MWC is in a 50/50 position of crumbling once BSU walks. SDSU probably wouldn't be far behind if they weren't so far from Temple, USF, ECU, and Memphis.

 

[Vowelguy]

The problem with the Sun Belt is that 6 of the programs are really bad. Arkansas State is the only other program that is mildly competitive.

Georgia Southern has been to 3 straight bowl games.
Troy was in bowls 2016-18.

 

[Vowelguy]

The Big XII is the rumor for Boise

By "they" I meant the rest of the MW.

I cant see the MW collapsing bc too many teams have no other option. Not true for the AAC schools. That's why I think the AAC is less stable.

 

[Storrs South]

By "they" I meant the rest of the MW.

I cant see the MW collapsing bc too many teams have no other option. Not true for the AAC schools. That's why I think the AAC is less stable.

All AAC schools make more money than other conferences out there excluding P5 which only Memphis is in serious contention for.

AAC is in a stronger position than MWC financially which is why these schools would make the move. After those school leaves, MWC becomes CUSA of the west.

To summarize i dont think any conference will cease to exist but the AAC will be making more money at EOD because of the support by ESPN.

 

[goldendomer]

Heather Dinich

@CFBHeather
·
58m
The SEC and ND wouldn't vote for an 8-team playoff that has automatic qualifiers. The G5 wouldn't vote for one that doesn't.





Andy Staples

@Andy_Staples
·
6m
G5 leagues wouldn’t approve top 8. They’d want auto bids. Top 8 is the only 8-team format SEC or ND would approve. It’ll be 12.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Heather Dinich
@CFBHeather
·
58m
The SEC and ND wouldn't vote for an 8-team playoff that has automatic qualifiers. The G5 wouldn't vote for one that doesn't.





Andy Staples
@Andy_Staples
·
6m
G5 leagues wouldn’t approve top 8. They’d want auto bids. Top 8 is the only 8-team format SEC or ND would approve. It’ll be 12.

CFP board delays vote on 12-team proposal

The College Football Playoff board of managers, which has the authority to change the playoff, will not vote next week on a proposed 12-team format.

www.espn.com

 

[shizzle787]

CFP board delays vote on 12-team proposal

The College Football Playoff board of managers, which has the authority to change the playoff, will not vote next week on a proposed 12-team format.

www.espn.com

I think a straight 8 format with no auto bids is the best format. If an undefeated Big 12, AAC, MW, or Indy team schedules good OOC, they will be in.

 

[Vowelguy]

I think a straight 8 format with no auto bids is the best format. If an undefeated Big 12, AAC, MW, or Indy team schedules good OOC, they will be in.

Riiiiiight.
who are these good OOC opponents with the Aliiance locked up and the SEC rarely scheduling good road games?

the G5 has no chance at an at large unless their team is undefeated, while a 3 loss SEc team would easily make it

they are foolish to not be more inclusive (even by 1 slot!) — that’s what has made March madness what it is.

 

[shizzle787]

Riiiiiight.
who are these good OOC opponents with the Aliiance locked up and the SEC rarely scheduling good road games?

the G5 has no chance at an at large unless their team is undefeated, while a 3 loss SEc team would easily make it

they are foolish to not be more inclusive (even by 1 slot!) — that’s what has made March madness what it is.

The Alliance is bogus posturing. Every one knows that.

 

[Storrs South]

 

[shizzle787]

Yeah, I don't know about that one.

 

[JeepCSC]

The Alliance is bogus posturing. Every one knows that.

They stopped the “inevitable” expansion. One victory at least.

 

[shizzle787]

They stalled the “inevitable” expansion. One victory at least.

FIFY

 

[Dooooooomed]

...making the Big 12 the new tweener, non-power league. CFP expansion will go from a 6+6 model to a 5+7 model.

 

[JeepCSC]

FIFY

And served notice to ESPN/SEC that they aren’t going to be railroaded like just about happened. The next version of this will be more equitable for the Alliance.

 

[ScottVib]

The Fear the Wave Blog was smart enough to leave out Southern Miss lest they demonstrate how much BS is in that "report".

Other than Memphis and Boise State being next in line, look for visits and/or discussions to take place with Tulane, SMU and possibly even Southern Mississippi.

 

[kingdobbs]

I think a straight 8 format with no auto bids is the best format. If an undefeated Big 12, AAC, MW, or Indy team schedules good OOC, they will be in.

It is impossible for them to do so in a way that will overwhelm the perception of the remainder of their league schedule.

 

[ScottVib]

Correct. Even before there was an incentive to keep a G5 team out of the top-8; being undefeated was unlikely to be enough, given the number of games in that conference schedule. An undefeated Big XII team is probably ok in a straight-8 format.

2014: #20 Boise (11-2)
2015: #18 Houston (12-1)
2016: #15 Western Michigan (13-0)
2017: #12 UCF (12-0)
2018: #8 UCF (12-0)
2019: #17 Memphis (12-1)
2020: #8 Cincinnati (9-0) -- COVID season

So the G8 can figure they have a shot at the playoff, as the bottom seed; so long as their is a global pandemic or if they have completed their second-straight undefeated season... because those are the only times they've been close.

Again though, that was before there was an incentive to keep G5 schools from being ranked #8... I'm willing to bet Cincy ends up #9 if a straight top-8 would've reached the playoff last year (they were already behind three loss Florida); so yeah if you can go undefeated for two straight seasons, then you might, just might have a chance to be the bottom seed out of the G5 in a straight eight format.

 

[Storrs South]

 

[Dooooooomed]