There’s a key caveat here that hasn’t been discussed publicly, however. League officials may lean toward adding two schools as a way to leave their options open to poach Pac-12 schools. There’s a feeling around the Big 12 that the Pac-12 could be vulnerable when its contract expires in 2024. (Much in the same way there’s feeling around college sports that the Big 12 will be vulnerable the following year.)
The Pac-12 network isn’t working as currently configured, and there’s lingering animosity on some campuses regarding the network’s failure to produce similar revenue to the Big Ten Network and SEC Network.
If the Big 12 thinks it can snag schools like Colorado, Arizona or Arizona State when the Pac-12 deal ends in 2024, then it grows to 12 and waits. While there’s a lot of variables involved, this line of thinking is a factor in the Big 12’s decision making. Would the Arizona schools really leave their West Coast comfort zone and more logical geographic markets? That may sound nice in a meeting room, but it’s a potential $400 million gamble. That’s a heck of a risk for the Big 12, which has never exactly specialized in long-term planning or thinking.