Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[ramses 2.0]

No one from the Big 12 is jumping to the ACC. The ACC approached them last summer and they shot it down. Why on earth would they want to go to the ACC now!? The Big 12 IS NOT paying the new schools with money out of their pockets, Oklahoma and Texas are paying for it via a smart part their payouts and their exit fee. The exit fees alone pay forthe Cincinnati, BYU, UCF and Houston payouts in 2023 and 2024. And it is only for TWO YEARS. After that everyone gets a full payout. For some reason you and others have twisted this into the Big 12 paying for the new members for the life of the contract. Everyone gets a full payout which is why the Big 12's per team payout is higher than the ACC's.

But it's not higher, the ACC is still under it's original contract that includes the Raycom games which ends in 2027. So the 19-24 million tier 1-2 content value people throw around is based on the 2012 contract not the 2016 extension that includes the ACC network

 

[Vowelguy]

The strongest product would be gutting the weak links from both (BC, Wake, Syracuse, Kansas State, Iowa State, the AAC adds).

One could say that about every conference. But that’s not how realignment works. There’s not a central planner. Instead it’s a series of discrete moves.

 

[TheCatsLair]

An article by Matt Engel just came out saying that Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State blocked Stanford to to the Big 12. Why on earth would they follow them to the ACC!? And unstable ACC at that? Why would Kansas want to go to the ACC? Why would Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF jump to an unstable ACC when they're in a stable Big 12 and they're making more money? If the ACCN really was a cash cow Why did the FSU administration admit publicly to being afraid of following behind UCF financially? And they're projected to make 60 million in 2028. The Big 12 will make that when the new TV deal kicks in for the 2025 season.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

An article by Matt Engel just came out saying that Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State blocked Stanford to to the Big 12. Why on earth would they follow them to the ACC!? And unstable ACC at that? Why would Kansas want to go to the ACC? Why would Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF jump to an unstable ACC when they're in a stable Big 12 and they're making more money? If the ACCN really was a cash cow Why did the FSU administration admit publicly to being afraid of following behind UCF financially? And they're projected to make 60 million in 2028. The Big 12 will make that when the new TV deal kicks in for the 2025 season.

Who cares what any of those schools do? Do you realize this is a UConn board?

 

[UConnJim]

If the ACCN really was a cash cow Why did the FSU administration admit publicly to being afraid of following behind UCF financially?

The ACCN revenues are close to peaking. They went from zero subscribers to peak subscribers very quickly. They will get a few more top paying subs with the adds of Stanford/Cal/SMU, but cable cord cutting will be bleeding subscribers for years just like all of the legacy cable networks. And I don't think selling streaming subscriptions will offset the decline in cabe subs for the ACCN as many schools do not have a large rabid group of fans unlike the SEC and Big 10. That is why brands and rabid fan bases are the most important thing for future media revenues and the ACC has failed miserably in understanding that. And, that is why I am bullish on UConn. I think there are more UConn women's basketball fans that would pony up for a UConn subscription than there are total fans for many of the current P5 schools.

 

[huskymedic]

Monken just signed an extension through 2027:

Guessing Mike Buddie (Army AD) and Gladchuk have been having quite a few convos regarding the brewing Army move to AAC:

Podcast ⚓ Exclusive interview with Chet Gladchuk

 

[Kolumbo]

WSU coach called out ESPN for destroying the PAC-12.

These interviews are great. I don't watch espn but it would be great if the clowns over there actually replied to these coaches and programs that espn is trying to destroy. I loathe that company.

 

[JeepCSC]

One could say that about every conference. But that’s not how realignment works. There’s not a central planner. Instead it’s a series of discrete moves.

Agreed. Which is why the Big XII with a worse contract with a GOR that ends sooner is in a precarious spot.

 

[JeepCSC]

It is not tiny. It’s got 3.4M people (30th) and is typically top 5 in growth. It is larger than Iowa, Miss, and KS, all of which have two teams. It’ll pass CT in the next year or two.

And in terms of young people it is much higher.

Plus BYU is a national brand.

State population / P4 teams:

California- 9.8m
Pennsylvania- 6.5m
Ohio- 5.9m
Florida- 5.6m
Georgia- 5.5m
Texas- 4.3m
Virginia- 4.3m
Arizona- 3.7m
NC- 2.7m
SC- 2.6m
Indiana- 2.3m
Kentucky- 2.3m
Oklahoma- 2m
Utah- 1.7m
Iowa- 1.6m
Kansas- 1.5m

I’d say only in Kansas, Utah, and Arizona would the BXII have the biggest fanbase in their respective state. Utah is a small state however you slice it.

Here is a list of the top 10 schools by revenue earned last year from either conference (works as a shorthand for brands):

(Notre Dame), Virginia, FSU, Clemson, Stanford, Duke, Louisville, Arizona, UNC, Arizona State, TCU

California, Kansas, Miami, Utah, and VPI round out the top 15. A raid on the ACC would have to be extremely deep. If the GOR is unbreakable (and again, Texas is getting no media rights next year from either conference, so until proven otherwise I’m thinking it’s not breakable), smart money is on the ACC as being the one able to poach the next cycle. I don’t think anyone has ever willingly left a better contract for a worse one in all these realignment wars, and I don’t expect it to happen in 2030.

 

[JeepCSC]

Actually I forgot Pitt, it would slide in between UNC and Arizona State.

 

[CL82]

Agreed. Which is why the Big XII with a worse contract with a GOR that ends sooner is in a precarious spot.

Sure, if anyone wanted any of their programs. I'm not sure that's the case.

"The Big 12: The undesirability of our programs is our greatest strength."

 

[JeepCSC]

Sure, if anyone wanted any of their programs. I'm not sure that's the case.

"The Big 12: The undesirability of our programs is our greatest strength."

The ACC would be smart to offer Kansas, TCU, and Oklahoma State. Builds a central pod around SMU and again prepares for a post 2035 world.

At some point a best-ACC/BXII is likely to emerge. Of those top revenue earners I mentioned, you want as many of them as possible in the new league. That’s easier with the ACC schools as a base than the other way around.

 

[CL82]

The ACC would be smart to offer Kansas, TCU, and Oklahoma State. Builds a central pod around SMU and again prepares for a post 2035 world.

At some point a best-ACC/BXII is likely to emerge. Of those top revenue earners I mentioned, you want as many of them as possible in the new league. That’s easier with the ACC schools as a base than the other way around.

I don't think the Big 12 can raid the ACC unless the ACC gets completely blown up. Given the potential for its top schools to leave, I am not at all sure that the ACC is going to be attractive to big 12 schools, except maybe West Virginia and UCF. Now if both of the conferences get blown up I can see some consolidation, potentially, but, as we saw with the demise of the Pac 12, there's going to be collateral damage and more former " P5" schools will be de facto relegated.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

ESPN The World Wide leader in sport
Has left a path of carnage in it wake .
Destroyed the Serah Williams conference
The BiG East
PAC 12
For an institution that allegedly is pro sports it seems the short term maximization of profit is their only objective.because in the long term they end up spending more money on the same product reshuffled .
It’s neither the viewer or the schools who provide the product that benefits from their intrigue.

 

[JeepCSC]

I don't think the Big 12 can raid the ACC unless the ACC gets completely blown up. Given the potential for its top schools to leave, I am not at all sure that the ACC is going to be attractive to big 12 schools, except maybe West Virginia and UCF. Now if both of the conferences get blown up I can see some consolidation, potentially, but, as we saw with the demise of the Pac 12, there's going to be collateral damage and more former " P5" schools will be de facto relegated.

Not necessarily the ACC but the ACC money. This is a money game after all. If the ACC is making more than $31.6m in 2031 (and again, that is about what the ACC made in 2022), it’s anyone’s guess what that could mean even if the GOR fails.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Not necessarily the ACC but the ACC money. This is a money game after all. If the ACC is making more than $31.6m in 2031 (and again, that is about what the ACC made in 2022), it’s anyone’s guess what that could mean even if the GOR fails.

Is this an ACC board or a UConn board?

 

[CL82]

Not necessarily the ACC but the ACC money. This is a money game after all. If the ACC is making more than $31.6m in 2031 (and again, that is about what the ACC made in 2022), it’s anyone’s guess what that could mean even if the GOR fails.

Do you see the GOR "failing"? After a whole lot of saber rattling FSU appears to have chosen to sulk silently. If they thought they had a winning hand, they wouldn't have folded.

 

[JeepCSC]

Is this an ACC board or a UConn board?

All realignment boards are defacto UConn boards, has been for a decade.

 

[JeepCSC]

Do you see the GOR "failing"? After a whole lot of saber rattling FSU appears to have chosen to sulk silently. If they thought they had a winning hand, they wouldn't have folded.

I don’t see it failing. I thought there was a glimmer with Texas/OU getting out. But it sounds like they are not really getting out early at all. Their “$80m payment” is for their exit fee, and they will have no primary media coverage next year under the SEC contract and the Big XII will instead keep the money.

 

[Vowelguy]

ESPN The World Wide leader in sport
Has left a path of carnage in it wake .
Destroyed the Serah Williams conference
The BiG East
PAC 12
For an institution that allegedly is pro sports it seems the short term maximization of profit is their only objective.because in the long term they end up spending more money on the same product reshuffled .
It’s neither the viewer or the schools who provide the product that benefits from their intrigue.

What did ESPN have to do with the SWC?

My understanding was that the SEC left the old College Football Association (which negotiated TV rights) and signed their own mega deal with CBS. That left each conference on its own, in a race for $$. An 8 team conference of TX schools had no chance after that.

 

[billybud]

Is this an ACC board or a UConn board?

Jeez...gatekeeper...football is all interrelated....UConn football doesn't exisr in a complete vacuum...don't like a post, scroll on by..

Particularly on the Conference Realignment board.

If you want only UConn mentioned, I'd skip a Conferenc Realignment board

 

[JeepCSC]

Sapakoff: Clemson's ACC departure may be 'sooner' as Gamecocks fret

Gene Sapakoff column: University of South Carolina administrators don't want Clemson in the SEC and while the Big Ten remains a possibility, Clemson officials are working to keep the SEC

www.postandcourier.com

Big news if Clemson found a GOR loophole.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

The Clemson news is even more reason for UConn to win six games this season. Get with it, football team!

 

[huskyinfl]

The clemson tweet is traced back to a guy with 8000 followers that everyone says is a liar.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

The clemson tweet is traced back to a guy with 8000 followers that everyone says is a liar.

No, it's traced back - at least in part - to this article today in the Post and Courier, a paper of record from SC. https://archive.ph/5JYPA

The article does not explicitly say they will announce a leave in October 2023, but it heavily indicates Clemson leaving is a strong possibility in this calendar year. This, coming from an actual newspaper and not some mope on Twitter, indicates there is smoke here.