But that would only hold for a few years. Ultimately a watered down ACC is a much weaker product. They cant keep making outsized $$ forever.
The strongest product would be gutting the weak links from both (BC, Wake, Syracuse, Kansas State, Iowa State, the AAC adds).
BYU/Utah would be getting two shares for one tiny state.
But it's not higher, the ACC is still under it's original contract that includes the Raycom games which ends in 2027. So the 19-24 million tier 1-2 content value people throw around is based on the 2012 contract not the 2016 extension that includes the ACC network
One could say that about every conference. But that’s not how realignment works. There’s not a central planner. Instead it’s a series of discrete moves.
The ACCN revenues are close to peaking. They went from zero subscribers to peak subscribers very quickly. They will get a few more top paying subs with the adds of Stanford/Cal/SMU, but cable cord cutting will be bleeding subscribers for years just like all of the legacy cable networks. And I don't think selling streaming subscriptions will offset the decline in cabe subs for the ACCN as many schools do not have a large rabid group of fans unlike the SEC and Big 10. That is why brands and rabid fan bases are the most important thing for future media revenues and the ACC has failed miserably in understanding that. And, that is why I am bullish on UConn. I think there are more UConn women's basketball fans that would pony up for a UConn subscription than there are total fans for many of the current P5 schools.
Agreed. Which is why the Big XII with a worse contract with a GOR that ends sooner is in a precarious spot.
State population / P4 teams:
Sure, if anyone wanted any of their programs. I'm not sure that's the case.
The ACC would be smart to offer Kansas, TCU, and Oklahoma State. Builds a central pod around SMU and again prepares for a post 2035 world.
I don't think the Big 12 can raid the ACC unless the ACC gets completely blown up. Given the potential for its top schools to leave, I am not at all sure that the ACC is going to be attractive to big 12 schools, except maybe West Virginia and UCF. Now if both of the conferences get blown up I can see some consolidation, potentially, but, as we saw with the demise of the Pac 12, there's going to be collateral damage and more former " P5" schools will be de facto relegated.
Do you see the GOR "failing"? After a whole lot of saber rattling FSU appears to have chosen to sulk silently. If they thought they had a winning hand, they wouldn't have folded.
All realignment boards are defacto UConn boards, has been for a decade.
I don’t see it failing. I thought there was a glimmer with Texas/OU getting out. But it sounds like they are not really getting out early at all. Their “$80m payment” is for their exit fee, and they will have no primary media coverage next year under the SEC contract and the Big XII will instead keep the money.