Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[TheCatsLair]

The BXII has teams the ACC may want. If the Big XII is paying for expansion out of their own pockets, I’m thinking the differences in payouts between the Middle 2 could cause some turmoil when the Big XII contract ends in 6 years. Kansas, Ok State, TCU, would help with scheduling partners as well as shore up if any defections come.

No one from the Big 12 is jumping to the ACC. The ACC approached them last summer and they shot it down. Why on earth would they want to go to the ACC now!? The Big 12 IS NOT paying the new schools with money out of their pockets, Oklahoma and Texas are paying for it via a smart part their payouts and their exit fee. The exit fees alone pay forthe Cincinnati, BYU, UCF and Houston payouts in 2023 and 2024. And it is only for TWO YEARS. After that everyone gets a full payout. For some reason you and others have twisted this into the Big 12 paying for the new members for the life of the contract. Everyone gets a full payout which is why the Big 12's per team payout is higher than the ACC's.

 

[TheCatsLair]

The contracts involved. It sounds like the Big XII had to pony up the money themselves for the AAC expansion because ESPN/Fox didn’t rate them. If the cable trend continues, who knows what the money will be like in 2030 when the Big XII will be asking companies to pay $80+m for the state of Utah. At that point the ACC contract plus the ACCN money may look fairly good.

But obviously there is a bunch of unknowns. We don’t know if that blurb about the ACC contract staying intact even with 3 leaving is true. We don’t even know if the leavers could get out of the GOR (it sounds like Texas and OU didn’t, and will have no primary media deal next year). Tons of unknowns.

The Big 12 only had to pony up money for 2023 and 2024. Everyone gets 100% payout (31.7 million) starting in 2025 when the new TV deal kicks in so ESPN/Fox did rate them. The Pac-12 schools got a pro rata because they were already in the P5. And why would the Big 12 be asking for 80+million for Utah? It seems like you're digging here.

 

[Vowelguy]

The contracts involved. It sounds like the Big XII had to pony up the money themselves for the AAC expansion because ESPN/Fox didn’t rate them. If the cable trend continues, who knows what the money will be like in 2030 when the Big XII will be asking companies to pay $80+m for the state of Utah. At that point the ACC contract plus the ACCN money may look fairly good.

But that would only hold for a few years. Ultimately a watered down ACC is a much weaker product. They cant keep making outsized $$ forever.

 

[JeepCSC]

But that would only hold for a few years. Ultimately a watered down ACC is a much weaker product. They cant keep making outsized $$ forever.

The strongest product would be gutting the weak links from both (BC, Wake, Syracuse, Kansas State, Iowa State, the AAC adds).

 

[JeepCSC]

The Big 12 only had to pony up money for 2023 and 2024. Everyone gets 100% payout (31.7 million) starting in 2025 when the new TV deal kicks in so ESPN/Fox did rate them. The Pac-12 schools got a pro rata because they were already in the P5. And why would the Big 12 be asking for 80+million for Utah? It seems like you're digging here.

BYU/Utah would be getting two shares for one tiny state.

Also the USA Today report says 10 schools are paying $7m each to cover the AAC additions this year. Apparently the new additions are getting $18 m each paid for by the schools this year. OU and Texas will lose their distribution next year after the leave ($40 million each). That could presumably pay for the AAC schools in 2024-2025 until the new contract kicks in the year after. Either way, more mouths means the additional money (NCAA tourney credits, the bowl money) will be divided more ways regardless.

Regardless, the next BXII contract looks to average $31.6m until 2031. The ACC in 2022 was getting $30.5m in media rights ($443m to be exact). Escalators and ACCN payouts should keep make the gap that much bigger over the next decade (even ignoring the bizarre Calford deal). In the end a few million advantage to the ACC shouldn’t matter. But then the PAC just broke up when they refused a deal nearly identical to the one the Big XII got. When you aren’t in the Power 2, sometimes conference stability can come down to a couple million annually.

 

[JeepCSC]

So my big caveat, if the ACC contract is intact in 2030, I think Duke and Miami would have an easier time courting Kansas and Oklahoma State to a conference with a better contract. They might not, time will tell.

But again, the USA Today story supports the idea the GOR has not been solved by OU and Texas. They were just fortunate their leaving coincided with the end of the contract so one missed year without a primary media deal won’t kill them. I’ll believe UNC and FSU are leaving before 2035ish when it happens and not a second sooner.

 

[Vowelguy]

BYU/Utah would be getting two shares for one tiny state.



.

It is not tiny. It’s got 3.4M people (30th) and is typically top 5 in growth. It is larger than Iowa, Miss, and KS, all of which have two teams. It’ll pass CT in the next year or two.

And in terms of young people it is much higher.

Plus BYU is a national brand.

 

[ramses 2.0]

No one from the Big 12 is jumping to the ACC. The ACC approached them last summer and they shot it down. Why on earth would they want to go to the ACC now!? The Big 12 IS NOT paying the new schools with money out of their pockets, Oklahoma and Texas are paying for it via a smart part their payouts and their exit fee. The exit fees alone pay forthe Cincinnati, BYU, UCF and Houston payouts in 2023 and 2024. And it is only for TWO YEARS. After that everyone gets a full payout. For some reason you and others have twisted this into the Big 12 paying for the new members for the life of the contract. Everyone gets a full payout which is why the Big 12's per team payout is higher than the ACC's.

But it's not higher, the ACC is still under it's original contract that includes the Raycom games which ends in 2027. So the 19-24 million tier 1-2 content value people throw around is based on the 2012 contract not the 2016 extension that includes the ACC network

 

[Vowelguy]

The strongest product would be gutting the weak links from both (BC, Wake, Syracuse, Kansas State, Iowa State, the AAC adds).

One could say that about every conference. But that’s not how realignment works. There’s not a central planner. Instead it’s a series of discrete moves.

 

[TheCatsLair]

An article by Matt Engel just came out saying that Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State blocked Stanford to to the Big 12. Why on earth would they follow them to the ACC!? And unstable ACC at that? Why would Kansas want to go to the ACC? Why would Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF jump to an unstable ACC when they're in a stable Big 12 and they're making more money? If the ACCN really was a cash cow Why did the FSU administration admit publicly to being afraid of following behind UCF financially? And they're projected to make 60 million in 2028. The Big 12 will make that when the new TV deal kicks in for the 2025 season.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

An article by Matt Engel just came out saying that Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State blocked Stanford to to the Big 12. Why on earth would they follow them to the ACC!? And unstable ACC at that? Why would Kansas want to go to the ACC? Why would Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF jump to an unstable ACC when they're in a stable Big 12 and they're making more money? If the ACCN really was a cash cow Why did the FSU administration admit publicly to being afraid of following behind UCF financially? And they're projected to make 60 million in 2028. The Big 12 will make that when the new TV deal kicks in for the 2025 season.

Who cares what any of those schools do? Do you realize this is a UConn board?

 

[UConnJim]

If the ACCN really was a cash cow Why did the FSU administration admit publicly to being afraid of following behind UCF financially?

The ACCN revenues are close to peaking. They went from zero subscribers to peak subscribers very quickly. They will get a few more top paying subs with the adds of Stanford/Cal/SMU, but cable cord cutting will be bleeding subscribers for years just like all of the legacy cable networks. And I don't think selling streaming subscriptions will offset the decline in cabe subs for the ACCN as many schools do not have a large rabid group of fans unlike the SEC and Big 10. That is why brands and rabid fan bases are the most important thing for future media revenues and the ACC has failed miserably in understanding that. And, that is why I am bullish on UConn. I think there are more UConn women's basketball fans that would pony up for a UConn subscription than there are total fans for many of the current P5 schools.

 

[huskymedic]

Monken just signed an extension through 2027:

Guessing Mike Buddie (Army AD) and Gladchuk have been having quite a few convos regarding the brewing Army move to AAC:

Podcast ⚓ Exclusive interview with Chet Gladchuk

 

[Kolumbo]

WSU coach called out ESPN for destroying the PAC-12.

These interviews are great. I don't watch espn but it would be great if the clowns over there actually replied to these coaches and programs that espn is trying to destroy. I loathe that company.

 

[JeepCSC]

One could say that about every conference. But that’s not how realignment works. There’s not a central planner. Instead it’s a series of discrete moves.

Agreed. Which is why the Big XII with a worse contract with a GOR that ends sooner is in a precarious spot.

 

[JeepCSC]

It is not tiny. It’s got 3.4M people (30th) and is typically top 5 in growth. It is larger than Iowa, Miss, and KS, all of which have two teams. It’ll pass CT in the next year or two.

And in terms of young people it is much higher.

Plus BYU is a national brand.

State population / P4 teams:

California- 9.8m
Pennsylvania- 6.5m
Ohio- 5.9m
Florida- 5.6m
Georgia- 5.5m
Texas- 4.3m
Virginia- 4.3m
Arizona- 3.7m
NC- 2.7m
SC- 2.6m
Indiana- 2.3m
Kentucky- 2.3m
Oklahoma- 2m
Utah- 1.7m
Iowa- 1.6m
Kansas- 1.5m

I’d say only in Kansas, Utah, and Arizona would the BXII have the biggest fanbase in their respective state. Utah is a small state however you slice it.

Here is a list of the top 10 schools by revenue earned last year from either conference (works as a shorthand for brands):

(Notre Dame), Virginia, FSU, Clemson, Stanford, Duke, Louisville, Arizona, UNC, Arizona State, TCU

California, Kansas, Miami, Utah, and VPI round out the top 15. A raid on the ACC would have to be extremely deep. If the GOR is unbreakable (and again, Texas is getting no media rights next year from either conference, so until proven otherwise I’m thinking it’s not breakable), smart money is on the ACC as being the one able to poach the next cycle. I don’t think anyone has ever willingly left a better contract for a worse one in all these realignment wars, and I don’t expect it to happen in 2030.

 

[JeepCSC]

Actually I forgot Pitt, it would slide in between UNC and Arizona State.

 

[CL82]

Agreed. Which is why the Big XII with a worse contract with a GOR that ends sooner is in a precarious spot.

Sure, if anyone wanted any of their programs. I'm not sure that's the case.

"The Big 12: The undesirability of our programs is our greatest strength."

 

[JeepCSC]

Sure, if anyone wanted any of their programs. I'm not sure that's the case.

"The Big 12: The undesirability of our programs is our greatest strength."

The ACC would be smart to offer Kansas, TCU, and Oklahoma State. Builds a central pod around SMU and again prepares for a post 2035 world.

At some point a best-ACC/BXII is likely to emerge. Of those top revenue earners I mentioned, you want as many of them as possible in the new league. That’s easier with the ACC schools as a base than the other way around.

 

[CL82]

The ACC would be smart to offer Kansas, TCU, and Oklahoma State. Builds a central pod around SMU and again prepares for a post 2035 world.

At some point a best-ACC/BXII is likely to emerge. Of those top revenue earners I mentioned, you want as many of them as possible in the new league. That’s easier with the ACC schools as a base than the other way around.

I don't think the Big 12 can raid the ACC unless the ACC gets completely blown up. Given the potential for its top schools to leave, I am not at all sure that the ACC is going to be attractive to big 12 schools, except maybe West Virginia and UCF. Now if both of the conferences get blown up I can see some consolidation, potentially, but, as we saw with the demise of the Pac 12, there's going to be collateral damage and more former " P5" schools will be de facto relegated.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

ESPN The World Wide leader in sport
Has left a path of carnage in it wake .
Destroyed the Serah Williams conference
The BiG East
PAC 12
For an institution that allegedly is pro sports it seems the short term maximization of profit is their only objective.because in the long term they end up spending more money on the same product reshuffled .
It’s neither the viewer or the schools who provide the product that benefits from their intrigue.

 

[JeepCSC]

I don't think the Big 12 can raid the ACC unless the ACC gets completely blown up. Given the potential for its top schools to leave, I am not at all sure that the ACC is going to be attractive to big 12 schools, except maybe West Virginia and UCF. Now if both of the conferences get blown up I can see some consolidation, potentially, but, as we saw with the demise of the Pac 12, there's going to be collateral damage and more former " P5" schools will be de facto relegated.

Not necessarily the ACC but the ACC money. This is a money game after all. If the ACC is making more than $31.6m in 2031 (and again, that is about what the ACC made in 2022), it’s anyone’s guess what that could mean even if the GOR fails.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Not necessarily the ACC but the ACC money. This is a money game after all. If the ACC is making more than $31.6m in 2031 (and again, that is about what the ACC made in 2022), it’s anyone’s guess what that could mean even if the GOR fails.

Is this an ACC board or a UConn board?

 

[CL82]

Not necessarily the ACC but the ACC money. This is a money game after all. If the ACC is making more than $31.6m in 2031 (and again, that is about what the ACC made in 2022), it’s anyone’s guess what that could mean even if the GOR fails.

Do you see the GOR "failing"? After a whole lot of saber rattling FSU appears to have chosen to sulk silently. If they thought they had a winning hand, they wouldn't have folded.

 

[JeepCSC]

Is this an ACC board or a UConn board?

All realignment boards are defacto UConn boards, has been for a decade.