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We would have to get very, very lucky. I don't see it given our history. UConn needs five conferences going to 16. In that scenario, it's hard for us to lose. Once you are down to four conferences, we're in trouble.
You are right that in the four conference world, the AAC probably gets stronger, but that's hardly the end result we want.
Worst case scenario is that the B12 expands and pillages the AAC, but I don't think UConn is in the AAC long in that scenario.
What about 4 conferences going to 16 or 20 - ACC (16), B1G (20), SEC (20), PAC (16)? That's 72 slots. Right now, the P5 have 65 programs.