Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[nd73]

ND knew that Purdue and Northwestern made more TV money than ND in 2010, even before the new proposed deal.

It took less money and the partial ACC deal in 2012 over a full Big Ten deal (for a lot of reasons) despite the lower TV money that entailed.

Has the new Big Ten money deal enticed ND enough to give up indy status? I doubt it.

ND's independent status involves more than the most TV money and even more than just athletics.

Would a new blockbuster megaconference deal in six years that included Texas change ND's viewpoint in favor of the ACC or Big Ten? I don't know. Maybe so. Time will tell.

P.S. ND might want Navy instead of UConn if it joined the ACC in football. The ACC just might agree in order to get ND football.

Exactly, if and that is a huge IF we join the ACC we would like Navy to have the last spot. They may not want it though.

 

[mavblues]

I will say that if Texas blocks expansion just to screw its conference partners over, you will see that conference become a rancid stew of open vitriol.

 

[TerryD]

Your opinion. I think otherwise.

ND is excluded from the 4 team CFP format when they have one loss to an ACC/B1G/PAC school that did not play in their conference championship. ND would be passed over by a B1G Champ, the ACC Champ, the SEC Champ and the Pac12 champ, all with 1 loss because each of the champs had an extra game against a quality opponent. They may even be passed over by a 1 loss team that lost in a conference CG game. ND and its fan base will howl about how unfair it is. The rest of the country will shrug their shoulders and say go talk to Big 12 who got shut out because of no CG. It is the price of independence. Let it happen 2 or 3 times, and ND will suddenly want to be in some conference.

The way things are configured, ND will be at a disadvantage versus conferences with a CG. They will almost always be the outside of the top 4 unless they are undefeated. The 5 ACC games do nothing for them except fill out their P5 schedule easier. Without a chance to wipe out a loss in the ACC in a CG (in any conference, substitute a a loss to a B1G team if you want), they come up short.

And let's not forget that the P5's move to autonomy from the NCAA certainly weakens ND's voice in FB. I really don't think the ACC will do anything to enhance ND's chances when they are not a full member.

My guess, they go to the B1G in the next 5 years.

How often will this "Doomsday Playoff Scenario" play out with ND? Once or twice or so a decade?

Jack Swarbrick discussed this a couple of weeks ago, downplayed it, and said that it is just the price of doing business as an independent.

He mentioned increasing ND's SOS in the future with some big name schools to help address that.

"Heather Dinich
ESPN Staff Writer


Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick told me the Irish expect to announce "some remarkably challenging" games soon. As the Irish schedule independently in the era of the CFP, Swarbrick said, "That's our obligation in this system. Our 12 better compare with anybody's 13. That's the way we're approaching scheduling."

Does that sound like ND is making a panic move to abandon independence?

As far as the Big Ten potential move, you have to factor in:

1) GOR

2) Exit fee

3) ND/ACC "ND football can only join the ACC until 2027 contract" (confirmed yesterday by Brando/Swofford)

4) ND alumni, booster and donor intense pride in independence and disdain for the Big Ten. How much in donations will ND lose if it joins the Big Ten?

 

[TerryD]

I will say that if Texas blocks expansion just to screw its conference partners over, you will see that conference become a rancid stew of open vitriol.

Isn't it already?

I have no idea what the Big 12 will do, but my guess is that Texas will ultimately balk at giving up the LHN, extending the GOR or adding G5 members.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Exactly, if and that is a huge IF we join the ACC we would like Navy to have the last spot. They may not want it though.

Navy can't compete in any sport but football. You can always play Navy. They add nothing to an all sports conference.

 

[06029]

How often will this "Doomsday Playoff Scenario" play out with ND? Once or twice or so a decade?

Jack Swarbrick discussed this a couple of weeks ago, downplayed it, and said that it is just the price of doing business as an independent.

He mentioned increasing ND's SOS in the future with some big name schools to help address that.

"Heather Dinich
ESPN Staff Writer


Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick told me the Irish expect to announce "some remarkably challenging" games soon. As the Irish schedule independently in the era of the CFP, Swarbrick said, "That's our obligation in this system. Our 12 better compare with anybody's 13. That's the way we're approaching scheduling."

Does that sound like ND is making a panic move to abandon independence?

As far as the Big Ten potential move, you have to factor in:

1) GOR

2) Exit fee

3) ND/ACC "ND football can only join the ACC until 2027 contract" (confirmed yesterday by Brando/Swofford)

4) ND alumni, booster and donor intense pride in independence and disdain for the Big Ten. How much in donations will ND lose if it joins the Big Ten?

It would have played out last year if ND had beat Stanford. The loss to Clemson kept them out of the top 4. ND would have been #5 at best. Heck, they dropped after beating BC to #6. ND's ACC games does not include the elite every year. The next time they see FSU is 2018. The next time they see Clemson in 2020. In the meantime, any loss in the ACC games drops them out of the picture. The teams over the next 4 years are not the ACC elite. If they were in the ACC, 1 in conference loss, they can still make the championship game and have a much larger shot at being in the 4 team playoff.

In terms of their non-ACC games, Navy is every year and that is non P5. You also have USC every year But for the next 4 years, 1 loss keeps ND out. Here are your other games non-ACC/traditional opponents - 2016 TX, NV, Stanford and MSU. 2017 Temple, Miami of OH, Stanford and GA. 2018 Ball State, Northwestern. 2019 New Mexico, Stanford and GA. 2020 Purdue and Stanford. And does Kelly really want a 12 game schedule against all Top 40 teams?

Panic. No. But become an afterthought because of no CG, totally unacceptable to the school and fan base.

 

[UConnJim]

As far as the Big Ten potential move, you have to factor in:

1) GOR

2) Exit fee

3) ND/ACC "ND football can only join the ACC until 2027 contract" (confirmed yesterday by Brando/Swofford)

4) ND alumni, booster and donor intense pride in independence and disdain for the Big Ten. How much in donations will ND lose if it joins the Big Ten?

1) and 2) are not a big problem. The GORs for ND is minimal as I think ND only gets a 20% payout from the ACC media contract as they don't play football and the ACC replaced the exit fee with the GORs. So, ND may give up $40 million over ten years from the GORs. Doesn't seem a big deal. We don't know about 3) as we don't know exactly what the commitment to the ACC really is. I guess ND could move most sports to the Big 10 and keep football independent for a few more years if the ACC contract was enforceable and the Big 10 allowed it. I guess that might free up ND's commitment to play 5 ACC schools per year in football.

End of the day, ND will look out for ND and I doubt that ND signed a contract with the ACC that they didn't think they could work around in the future.

 

[TerryD]

There is also this from yesterday:



"When looking at the value of a Tier Three package, you really need to look at where a university pulls its students. Some schools draw nationally and have a smaller group of local students. Most state schools, on the other hand, draw primarily from an area of about three to four hundred miles around the university. Let’s look at two ways schools have handled this same situation differently.

Notre Dame is located in Northern Indiana, just east from Chicago. While it definitely has a local presence and is quite popular in Chicago, particularly on the South Side, its alumni are in two main bands. The first resides within the metroplex from Boston to DC, an area of nearly fifty million people nowhere near South Bend, Indiana. The second grouping is on the West Coast, namely California.

Compare that with Notre Dame which only has 35% of its students from the Midwest, even less from Indiana,


When Notre Dame considered how to work its sports conference affiliation, being tied to a Midwestern or Southern conference made little sense. Instead it made a deal with the ACC, to play five football games a year against the conference, which had schools up and down the east coast, including Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia. The rest of their football schedule allowed them to ensure they kept games against USC and Stanford to keep their West Coast ties, while the rest of their non-football sports would bundle up within the ACC’s Tier Two and Three media deal with ESPN, where all of their men’s and women’s teams would be featured on the East Coast.

It is a perfect match for what the university is trying to market."


Another reason that it seems unlikely that ND football will join the Big Ten.

 

[CL82]

ND has no immediate need to join the Big 10. They haven't sucked all the blood out of the ACC yet.

 

[Kevin Caliendo]

Well, the B1G now includes Maryland and Rutgers and could also include Uconn if ND were to join (Uconn as team 16). Could still play USC/Stanford every year and the B1G and Pac10 have deals in place across sports.

I would argue that if ND is joining a conference, the B1G offers them more than the ACC when $$ and hitting their alumni base is concerned

 

[junglehusky]

 

[upstater]

Exactly, if and that is a huge IF we join the ACC we would like Navy to have the last spot. They may not want it though.

LOL, get over yourselves. No wonder no one likes you.

 

[upstater]

Navy can't compete in any sport but football. You can always play Navy. They add nothing to an all sports conference.

It's not only that. But all the revenue lost from adding Navy couldn't be made up by Notre Dame.

 

[junglehusky]

Salt Lake Tribune writer

 

[nd73]

LOL, get over yourselves. No wonder no one likes you.

Do you not believe if we were to join we would pretty much pick number 16?

 

[CL82]

Do you not believe if we were to join we would pretty much pick number 16?

In the ACC? Yep. In the B1G? Nope

 

[nd73]

In the ACC? Yep. In the B1G? Nope

I agree with that.

 

[TerryD]

1) and 2) are not a big problem. The GORs for ND is minimal as I think ND only gets a 20% payout from the ACC media contract as they don't play football and the ACC replaced the exit fee with the GORs. So, ND may give up $40 million over ten years from the GORs. Doesn't seem a big deal. We don't know about 3) as we don't know exactly what the commitment to the ACC really is. I guess ND could move most sports to the Big 10 and keep football independent for a few more years if the ACC contract was enforceable and the Big 10 allowed it. I guess that might free up ND's commitment to play 5 ACC schools per year in football.

End of the day, ND will look out for ND and I doubt that ND signed a contract with the ACC that they didn't think they could work around in the future.

No, they did not. The GOR is in addition to the exit fee.

 

[NYUConn]

Hey Irish fans - Get the heck out of my Key Tweets thread. It's not funny anymore.

 

[nd73]

It would free up one more OOC slot for ND if it had to join a conference. That would be very important to ND.

Navy is also just about the only other school ND really cares about, due to the whole World War II thing with saving ND from closing its doors.

I am definitely not saying that ND would insist or the ACC would comply. It is a possibility, though.

It is the one school we have been truly loyal to thru it all. If they wanted the spot we would definitely go to bat for them

 

[UConnJim]

There is also this from yesterday:



"When looking at the value of a Tier Three package, you really need to look at where a university pulls its students. Some schools draw nationally and have a smaller group of local students. Most state schools, on the other hand, draw primarily from an area of about three to four hundred miles around the university. Let’s look at two ways schools have handled this same situation differently.

Notre Dame is located in Northern Indiana, just east from Chicago. While it definitely has a local presence and is quite popular in Chicago, particularly on the South Side, its alumni are in two main bands. The first resides within the metroplex from Boston to DC, an area of nearly fifty million people nowhere near South Bend, Indiana. The second grouping is on the West Coast, namely California.

Compare that with Notre Dame which only has 35% of its students from the Midwest, even less from Indiana,


When Notre Dame considered how to work its sports conference affiliation, being tied to a Midwestern or Southern conference made little sense. Instead it made a deal with the ACC, to play five football games a year against the conference, which had schools up and down the east coast, including Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia. The rest of their football schedule allowed them to ensure they kept games against USC and Stanford to keep their West Coast ties, while the rest of their non-football sports would bundle up within the ACC’s Tier Two and Three media deal with ESPN, where all of their men’s and women’s teams would be featured on the East Coast.

It is a perfect match for what the university is trying to market."

This is bull. The Big 10 has expanded East with Penn St., Rutgers, and Maryland and West with Nebraska and most ND students come from Big 10 country or states that border Big 10 country.

Top 17 states ND undergrads come from (source: collegefactual.com)

1) Illinois 268 students
2) California 174
3) Ohio 140
4) Indiana 130
5) Pennsylvania 110
6) Texas 106
7) New York 102
8) Michigan 92
9) New Jersey 85
10) Florida 75
11) Wisconsin 57
12) Virginia 56
13) Minnesota 55
14) Massachusetts 53
15) Missouri 50
16) Colorado 43
17) Maryland 41

Big 10 states: Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland
States that border Big 10 states: New York, Virginia, Missouri, Colorado

So, 13 out of the top 17 states that ND students come from are Big 10 states or states that border Big 10 states. The Big 10 seems like a better fit than the ACC if your criteria is their student body composition.

 

[upstater]

Do you not believe if we were to join we would pretty much pick number 16?

Absolutely do not believe that.

 

[upstater]

It would free up one more OOC slot for ND if it had to join a conference. That would be very important to ND.

Navy is also just about the only other school ND really cares about, due to the whole World War II thing with saving ND from closing its doors.

I am definitely not saying that ND would insist or the ACC would comply. It is a possibility, though.

ESPN is not going to subsidize Navy unless Notre Dame is worth $60m to them.

Feel free to say the ACC would be happy with that, but ESPN would not be.

 

[Pudge]

This Navy fantasy by ND fans is just crazy. You can't tee up a school like that in a major P5. You don't have that kind of pull. They simply bring little to the TV revenue and screw up the competitive balance in all but one sport.

 

[nd73]

It's crazy to think we wouldn't have a say in who 16 was(In the ACC)...

Oh well, not going to argue this.