Kenpom Climb Watch

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Someone somewhere mentioned winning the AACT and leaving the trophy in Texas. That’d be incredible

 

[auror]

It's WAY too early still to read into KenPom and what it says (honestly not reliable until mid-Jan when it's purely the current season data) but I did discover:

Memphis current AAC projection: 14-4
Houston current AAC projection: 14-4
Cincy current AAC projection: 14-4

UConn current AAC projection: 15-3

By projections, I mean games where we have 50.1%+ chance of winning. KenPom actually has us going 11-7 for accounting for games when that 49.9% and up hits.

It has us only losing at Cincy, at Houston and at Memphis (along with losing vs Indiana at MSG and at Nova).

At this point, I don't think I'll settle for 11-7, but I think 13-5 is my new goal.

Yeah for reference, the projected records for those 3 are 12-6. So we're projected to finish 4th currently, but things are definitely still in flux, especially with ours, Houston's, and Memphis's rating being especially volatile.

 

[Boukworm23]

St. Joe’s will be an albatross around our neck all year because they stink.

 

[tzznandrew]

It's WAY too early still to read into KenPom and what it says (honestly not reliable until mid-Jan when it's purely the current season data) but I did discover:

Memphis current AAC projection: 14-4
Houston current AAC projection: 14-4
Cincy current AAC projection: 14-4

UConn current AAC projection: 15-3

By projections, I mean games where we have 50.1%+ chance of winning. KenPom actually has us going 11-7 for accounting for games when that 49.9% and up hits.

It has us only losing at Cincy, at Houston and at Memphis (along with losing vs Indiana at MSG and at Nova).

At this point, I don't think I'll settle for 11-7, but I think 13-5 is my new goal.

Obviously hope for the best, but not one player on this team has had a winning season in their college career. They are going to lose games they should not. 13-5 would be fantastic. I still think 10.5 wins should be the over/under, and anything around that number shows clear improvement and growth in a way we should all be happy about.

Obviously we all want to win the national championship every year, but real progress is more incremental than that. We get to watch a team grow, and a group that was once accustomed to losing figure out how to win. That has it's own rewards.

 

[caw]

St. Joe’s will be an albatross around our neck all year because they stink.

on the plus side if Bouknight continues this play the committee could view it as a game lost without a significant contributor who is now playing. Assuming we are in position to worry about such things.

 

[FatHank]

Someone somewhere mentioned winning the AACT and leaving the trophy in Texas. That’d be incredible

That would be epic.

 

[UChusky916]

on the plus side if Bouknight continues this play the committee could view it as a game lost without a significant contributor who is now playing. Assuming we are in position to worry about such things.

How adorable that you would think that the NCAA selection committee would look at the loss rationally like you stated in that context.

The reality is that we'll get penalized for it regardless and no consideration will be given to Bouk's absence. Add that to AAC conference and we'll get screwed by 2 or 3 seeds than we should.
(yes I'm confident we'll make the tourney if we stay healthy, and yes we're doomed now that I've typed this)

 

[Waquoit]

St. Joe’s will be an albatross around our neck all year because they stink.

Not if we force the starting guards to watch the replay Robot Chicken style whenever they don't think they're getting enough shots.

 

[ucawn]

Don’t look now but your Huskies are now positioned at 56! 1 slot above VT.

 

[spudzj6]

Keep winning and it’ll jump more progressively. Gotta remember there are teams ahead who have played 5/6 cupcake teams, so their ranks won’t drop. Once conference games start, plenty of mid pack power 5 teams will fall.

 

[J187Money]

When you look at KenPom along with Bracketology - we are hovering around with teams that are on the bubble. Which I think that puts us in a good spot. We continue to play like we are and win games we will easily climb and find our way into the bracket projections as well. Given that we lost a game we should have won (St Joes) and a tough game to Xavier - I'm pretty happy where we sit today.

 

[5rings]

I think this team has turned a corner. I don't think we'll be losing many close games like last year. That is if the seniors continue to let the game come to them. They finally have a taste of winning some games. No way we lose to Indiana either.

 

[andy34]

I think others have brought this up but worth reiterating: the Kenpom rankings still are taking last year into account to some degree. Provided we reasonably take care of business against cupcakes, we'll go up in the rankings because we'll be flushing out statistical noise from last year.

 

[Watchdog]

If we play as we did against Miami there's no reason we can't win the league, except Memphis' size and the skills they've shown to date.

Reasons for such optimism?
When has anyone seen JC make interior passes when double teamed?
When has anyone seen our guards recognize the double teams, the openings in the lane, and moved into position to catch the pass and get the layup?
When has anyone seen our bigs so effectively double the ball handlers and stop the penetration?
When (in the last five years) has anyone seen a shot blocker like Akok?
When has anyone seen (in the last five years) enough competent depth to play ten players meaningful minutes?
When has anyone (in the last seven years) seen player development in one year such as shown by Whaley and Adams, and the team's reduction in selfish play (especially vs. Miami)?

Finally, how do you keep the team thinking unselfishly while Bouknight's play demands more time on the floor? Do they all know in their hearts how good he is and will be willing to accept a reduction in playing time so the team can be the best it can be?

 

[jkfer98]

Up to 55 due to PC's awfulness (I have no idea how they only dropped down to 61).

 

[MTHusky]

Up to 55 due to PC's awfulness (I have no idea how they only dropped down to 61).

Just went to 54, ahead of Syracuse. At this rate we will be #1 by Sunday

 

[Dooooooomed]

As of 11/30:

Villanova #13
Seton Hall #15
Butler #20
Marquette #24
Xavier #29
Houston #32
Memphis #42
Cincinnati #45
Wichita #52
UConn #53
DePaul #58
Providence #60
Creighton #61
Georgetown #62
Temple #73
SMU #83
St. John's #93
UCF #112
Tulsa #117
USF #143
Tulane #224
ECU #242

 

[Rocktheworld]

As of 11/30:

Villanova #13
Seton Hall #15
Butler #20
Marquette #24
Xavier #29
Houston #32
Memphis #42
Cincinnati #45
Wichita #52
UConn #53
DePaul #58
Providence #60
Creighton #61
Georgetown #62
Temple #73
SMU #83
St. John's #93
UCF #112
Tulsa #117
USF #143
Tulane #224
ECU #242

Thanks for altering the font to really demonstrate how much better the NBE is right now. Their entire bottom half minus StJohns is better than the bottom 2/3 of the AAC and it’s not super close besides Temple lol

Entire conference in the top 100, I don’t even remember that from the BE

 

[amidagoat]

As of 11/30:

Villanova #13
Seton Hall #15
Butler #20
Marquette #24
Xavier #29
Houston #32
Memphis #42
Cincinnati #45
Wichita #52
UConn #53
DePaul #58
Providence #60
Creighton #61
Georgetown #62
Temple #73
SMU #83
St. John's #93
UCF #112
Tulsa #117
USF #143
Tulane #224
ECU #242

ThE aAc iS bEtTer tHaN tHe BiG EaSt #bEunDeNiaBLe

 

[wheelerdog]

ThE aAc iS bEtTer tHaN tHe BiG EaSt #bEunDeNiaBLe

On to the next argument...

 

[billybud]

Very cool Visual....For giggles, I loaded up the P5 in top 50....to see conferences visually.

As of 11/30:


Michigan St.
Louisville
Virginia
Ohio State
Duke
Kentucky
Kansas
Purdue
North Carolina
Baylor
Michigan
Villanova #13
Auburn
Seton Hall #15
Florida State
Maryland
Oregon
Arizona
Butler #20
Tennessee
Oklahoma St.
Arkansas
Marquette #24
Penn State
Indiana
Xavier #29
Colorado
Florida
Houston #32
West Virginia
Texas
LSU
Oklahoma
Iowa State
Illinois
Memphis #42
Mississippi St.
NC State
Cincinnati #45
Iowa
Notre Dame
Wichita #52
UConn #53
DePaul #58
Providence #60
Creighton #61
Georgetown #62
Temple #73
SMU #83
St. John's #93
UCF #112
Tulsa #117
USF #143
Tulane #224
ECU #242

 

[Tenspro2002]

Thanks for altering the font to really demonstrate how much better the NBE is right now. Their entire bottom half minus StJohns is better than the bottom 2/3 of the AAC and it’s not super close besides Temple lol

Entire conference in the top 100, I don’t even remember that from the BE

So many more T1 and T2 win opportunities in the BE than the AAC.

So much easier to make the Tournament and secure a protected seed.

 

[the Q]

The sweet spot for offensive efficiency is 30. If you crack top 30 the odds go up exponentially that you can make a Final 4 run. History dictates that per KP. UConn 13-14 was the only real anomaly.

And top 20 defensively.

 

[ucawn]

How is providence 60th lol. We lose to Charleston and we’re 100+

 

[tzznandrew]

How is providence 60th lol. We lose to Charleston and we’re 100+

That's not how math works.