Kenpom Climb Watch

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I think the Kenpom on them is wrong because it includes numbers from the last year, they started 2-9 last year before going on an absolute tear to make the tourney. Most of the preason top to bottom rankings had them around 100. I’m not saying I think we’re going to lose, I just think it will be a tough game ala Buffalo. #95 Iona Men's Basketball 2019-2020 Preview
LOL. Computer rankings are never "wrong," unless you've literally found a mistake in the program. You may think they are better than their computer ranking, but that doesn't make the KenPoms wrong. Any computer ranking tells you exactly what it's supposed to tell you.
 
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Don't look now but that 2nd year jump is being clearly reflected in the numbers.

2019 Offensive rating - 109 - ranked 98
2019 Defensive rating - 102 - ranked 129

2020 Offensive rating - 105 - ranked 64
2020 Defensive rating - 92(!) - ranked 51
Screenshot_20191202-084005.png
Offensive rating
 
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Which is what exactly?
In this case, how many points a team has scored and given up adjusted for their schedule (via how many points the other teams they have played have given up and scored, with some weight given in the early season to empirically derived factors such as historical team/coach performance, returning minutes, and new player consensus rankings).
 

CL82

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Very cool Visual....For giggles, I loaded up the P5 in top 50....to see conferences visually.
Interesting but not sure how useful it is when you just do the top 50. By definition it gives a skew to the P5 at the top. Now, if you want to load in and color code every P5 school, then we'd have something. ;)
 
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For those who do not have KenPom, this site has some interesting analytics:

T-Page for Connecticut - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

  • Has UConn at 36% of making the tourney currently
  • Notes Bouknight, Adams, Polley, Vital, and Carlton have been the best 5 players to date
  • The team is elite at shot blocking, but also gets blocked on their own shots just as much which is no surprise since...
  • The team is being held back by an awful 2P%; the only players that rate positive in terms of finishing at the rim are Brendan Adams and James Bouknight
  • All of the guards are shooting exceptionally well from the charity stripe, Alterique being the lowest at 75% which is very good.
  • Notes that Alterique and Christian have very positive ratings with assists
  • The defense seems to be carrying the team at the moment as there are few deficiencies on that side of the ball currently
  • Currently projects UConn at 20-11 (11-7), which seems in line with everyone's preseason expectations
 

CL82

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Except for one important aspect, we have to actually beat the majority of all those far superior teams.

I think folks think that once these teams see “UConn” on our jerseys, everyone is just gonna lay down. Remember folks, we are still rebuilding. We are on the right path but next year when we are in a basketball conference with the top to bottom strength of the Big East, we are going to see how far we have come and how far we still need to go. I don’t see us walking in next year and dominating. Obviously I hope I am wrong. But I am not assuming an easy road to the tournament just because we are in the Big East.
I do I see us competing, however, and that, my friend, is going to be a whole lot of good basketball. It's a year away and I'm already looking forward to it.
 
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Interesting but not sure how useful it is when you just do the top 50. By definition it gives a skew to the P5 at the top. Now, if you want to load in and color code every P5 school, then we'd have something. ;)
I didn't have the patience to wade through a gazillion teams....but feel free.
 
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For those who do not have KenPom, this site has some interesting analytics:

T-Page for Connecticut - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

  • Has UConn at 36% of making the tourney currently
  • Notes Bouknight, Adams, Polley, Vital, and Carlton have been the best 5 players to date
  • The team is elite at shot blocking, but also gets blocked on their own shots just as much which is no surprise since...
  • The team is being held back by an awful 2P%; the only players that rate positive in terms of finishing at the rim are Brendan Adams and James Bouknight
  • All of the guards are shooting exceptionally well from the charity stripe, Alterique being the lowest at 75% which is very good.
  • Notes that Alterique and Christian have very positive ratings with assists
  • The defense seems to be carrying the team at the moment as there are few deficiencies on that side of the ball currently
  • Currently projects UConn at 20-11 (11-7), which seems in line with everyone's preseason expectations
Interesting data pages.....I clicked on comparison chart of UConn and FSU to see how the charting works...it is early....but Uconn is clearly ahead in 3 pt shooting rate. That may be scheme or skill.

Chart is difficult for me without a magnifier.'


FSU

 
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zls44

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The next month is interesting because outside of Indiana, there's no game where they'll be on any national radar unless they lose. Feels like they'd need to win out to maybe jump into the back of the poll before Cincy.
 
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For those who do not have KenPom, this site has some interesting analytics:

T-Page for Connecticut - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

  • Has UConn at 36% of making the tourney currently
  • Notes Bouknight, Adams, Polley, Vital, and Carlton have been the best 5 players to date
  • The team is elite at shot blocking, but also gets blocked on their own shots just as much which is no surprise since...
  • The team is being held back by an awful 2P%; the only players that rate positive in terms of finishing at the rim are Brendan Adams and James Bouknight
  • All of the guards are shooting exceptionally well from the charity stripe, Alterique being the lowest at 75% which is very good.
  • Notes that Alterique and Christian have very positive ratings with assists
  • The defense seems to be carrying the team at the moment as there are few deficiencies on that side of the ball currently
  • Currently projects UConn at 20-11 (11-7), which seems in line with everyone's preseason expectations
Great site.

I was just looking at this yesterday... our 2P% is hysterically bad. The culprits:

Gilbert - 30% on 40 attempts
Vital - 37.8% on 45 attempts
Whaley - 30.4% on 23 attempts
Akok - 45.8% on 24 attempts
Carlton - 50% on 66 attempts

All of these should rise. Wilson might as well, but I'm less bullish on that happening.
 
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For those who do not have KenPom, this site has some interesting analytics:

T-Page for Connecticut - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

  • Has UConn at 36% of making the tourney currently
  • Notes Bouknight, Adams, Polley, Vital, and Carlton have been the best 5 players to date
  • The team is elite at shot blocking, but also gets blocked on their own shots just as much which is no surprise since...
  • The team is being held back by an awful 2P%; the only players that rate positive in terms of finishing at the rim are Brendan Adams and James Bouknight
  • All of the guards are shooting exceptionally well from the charity stripe, Alterique being the lowest at 75% which is very good.
  • Notes that Alterique and Christian have very positive ratings with assists
  • The defense seems to be carrying the team at the moment as there are few deficiencies on that side of the ball currently
  • Currently projects UConn at 20-11 (11-7), which seems in line with everyone's preseason expectations
So just because i'm lazy and don't have time - how were we finishing around the rim the last two seasons? Seems like one of those under-the-hood/maybe-not-so-under-the-hood issues this team has had offensively this past year.

And to the best of our ability to read it - how are Ferguson/Springs/Cole/Jackson in those departments?

Because I honestly feel like we're basically one or two finisher/dribble drive guys away from being a real problem for everyone.
 
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So just because i'm lazy and don't have time - how were we finishing around the rim the last two seasons? Seems like one of those under-the-hood/maybe-not-so-under-the-hood issues this team has had offensively this past year.

And to the best of our ability to read it - how are Ferguson/Springs/Cole/Jackson in those departments?

Because I honestly feel like we're basically one or two finisher/dribble drive guys away from being a real problem for everyone.
Middle of the pack last year on 2P%, one of the worst in the country the last year under Ollie, one of the worst in the country second to last year under Ollie, middle of the pack the last year they made the tourney.

So to recap starting in 2015-16: Fine, Bad, Bad, Fine, Bad. The last time UConn was top 100 in this category was 2012-2013 (the ban year) so they did win a National Championship #196 in this stat.

With regards to finishing at the rim, anyone that played significant minutes last year was bad at the rim. Carlton was efficient his freshman year at the rim, and was semi efficient last year but not amazing especially when you consider how often he has the height advantage. He has dropped 10 percentage points at the rim this year and that's after playing a couple cupcakes and some high majors that are undersized.
 
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So just because i'm lazy and don't have time - how were we finishing around the rim the last two seasons? Seems like one of those under-the-hood/maybe-not-so-under-the-hood issues this team has had offensively this past year.

And to the best of our ability to read it - how are Ferguson/Springs/Cole/Jackson in those departments?

Because I honestly feel like we're basically one or two finisher/dribble drive guys away from being a real problem for everyone.
FG%s at the rim for 2020: Hoop-Math -- UConn basketball play-by-play statistics

2019: Hoop-Math -- UConn basketball play-by-play statistics
 

Durks07

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How are we not receiving a single vote in the AP poll
Because the AP voters do not actually watch games. They, at best, read box scores and see highlights. Case in point, Stephen F. Austin received 7 votes solely for beating Duke. Those AP voters ignored, or don't know, that right before beating Duke, SFA lost to Rutgers. Yes, Rutgers.
 

CL82

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How are we not receiving a single vote in the AP poll
5-2 with one of those losses to St. Joes. We may sneak in there before the end of the year. To be honest, I'm not sure how good we are. There is huge potential but we still do not have consistency.
 
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Middle of the pack last year on 2P%, one of the worst in the country the last year under Ollie, one of the worst in the country second to last year under Ollie, middle of the pack the last year they made the tourney.

So to recap starting in 2015-16: Fine, Bad, Bad, Fine, Bad. The last time UConn was top 100 in this category was 2012-2013 (the ban year) so they did win a National Championship #196 in this stat.

With regards to finishing at the rim, anyone that played significant minutes last year was bad at the rim. Carlton was efficient his freshman year at the rim, and was semi efficient last year but not amazing especially when you consider how often he has the height advantage. He has dropped 10 percentage points at the rim this year and that's after playing a couple cupcakes and some high majors that are undersized.
Yeah I was just talking about this in another thread - I thought Carlton's game yesterday was everything he can't be this year. Maybe it's a confidence thing, but they've just gotta have some dude sitting near him consistently telling him he's almost seven feet tall. He's just so timid and hesitant around the rim and he's way bigger and stronger than 85% of the guys he'll see this year, maybe more.

And he's really the key in a way - as he's the guy who of that lot - stands the best shot to really help in finishing at the rim. Whaley is gonna do what he does, but Carlton is the guy who's gotta be better.
 
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How are we not receiving a single vote in the AP poll
Simple, the St Joes loss is dragging us down. If we want to be ranked, we need to not lose to the Iona and beat Indiana. I would be very surprised if we are not ranked if we are 7-2 on 12/16.
 
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Currently projects UConn at 20-11 (11-7), which seems in line with everyone's preseason expectations
I project them to better than that. The St. Joe's loss must be weighing that projection down and I'm considering that game a complete toss-out.
 
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Tells me BA and Bouk need to take more shots.

Also, we beat St Joe's with Bouk playing. Casual voters may not recognize this, but the Selection Committee takes star players' absences into account when making the bracket. And in the end, that's all that matters.
 
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