Here’s a bombshell

[upstater]

All this speculation about people losing interest in college football and the schools are betting that it's nonsense.

Some of these schools have $500 million in loans for stadiums and facilities. They'd never be able to pay it off.

It would crater the entire school if the enterprise goes south.

 

[upstater]

The conferences can divide up and pay out the money any way they want.

Why couldn't there be a conversation / deal like this...

"Hey BIG, this is the president of FOX. I want you to go add 4 schools from the ACC so we can get your conference up to 20 teams, a number we feel is necessary for you to continue to be a big time conference. However, as we saw with Rutgers and Maryland, it has taken them nearly a decade for their athletic programs to adjust to the mighty BIG after coming from "lesser" conferences. So we will pay your existing schools $50 million per year for their media rights but the new 4 schools only $10 million per year to start. But because we want to protect our long term investment in your conference, we will provide you with an extra $40 million per year for the 4 new schools, as an investment in their programs to bring their brands and on field performance to the level of competitiveness we expect from a BIG school. This $40 million per year money is not for their media rights, but to ensure they can assimilate their programs into the toughest conference in America. After 2035 we will consider increasing the media rights for those 4 new programs to the full $50 million per year."

All I'm saying is that if FOX and the BIG want any ACC school, their accountants and lawyers can get creative in how they distribute the money and skirt the GOR.

At the very least draw out a lawsuit long enough over the distributions until the ACC is dead (kind of like how the PGA thinks they can outlast the LIV tour with a lengthy legal battle)

I know the conferences can do anything, BUT the network has pledged the proceeds from the rights to another conference.

So in this scenario ESPN or somebody is losing $160m a year for 16 years (2037).

That's $2.5+ billion dollars.

I mean--no way.

ESPN still has to pay the ACC for these same 4 schools.

 

[tzznandrew]

College baseball has alumni.

All the NFL would have to do is wait for college football to get down to 20-30 teams (sounds like something that will happen within 5 years), and then form a minor league. Make it so that kids who go to college are not draft eligible until after their 4th year of college. How many 5 stars will go to college?

If college baseball is a minor league, the NCAA football and NCAA basketball are very successful minor leagues.

 

[uconnfan68]

Do the TV’s in the Hartford DMA have either the ACC or B1G network? I don’t know. If not, thats still #30, almost 1M tvs, and that should move the needle for us. We also don’t need a full share. I know it’s not a lot, but UConn’s Women BBall has done well on the B1G Network.

I’ve read the UConn WBB on SNY is the highest rating for NY, even against NFL and NHL.

 

[Mazhude]

USC and UCLA share values with the Big Ten all right. Greed, for one.

As with all the conference-jumping that has taken place in this century, this is about one thing: money. This is no different from the golfers who have jumped to the Saudi-financed LIV Golf circuit claiming their goal is to grow the game. Just as the golfers are actually trying to grow their bank accounts, the college administrators are motivated by the welfare of their bottom lines.
As ridiculous as the notion of UCLA and USC joining the Big Ten is, it would be much more palatable if the leadership at the two schools just said: “This is about TV money. The Big Ten has lots more of it than the Pac-12.”

 

[bendm]

Staples: How would a school challenge a grant of rights? We asked a lawyer (who happens to have ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 copies)

There are four ways to challenge such a deal. Most of them involve a lot of money and patience.

theathletic.com

ACC teams are stuck until the GOR expires unless the conference dissolved before then which would require 8 teams to leave.

UNC, UVa, Gtech, Duke to the B1G?
Clemson, FSU, Miami, Lville to the SEC?

Idk how ND leaving would impact this since they are full members

 

[Zissou]

They aren’t going to the Big East. No chance.

Your level of certainty on the “no” is a good sign that a “yes” is possible.

 

[wheelerdog]

If ACC schools want to negotiate out of GOR, why not sign with Big 10 and agree to not get television revenue share up until 2035. So remaining ACC schools get

nothing until then, and that would be a negotiating point between the leaving schools and the ACC.

Some schools joining new leagues have agreed to smaller payouts for a while (think Rutgers did that with Big 10).

Not sure how GOR written but if for example Miami wanted out of ACC and would cancel football program would they be required to pay ACC anything throug 2035.

 

[TRest]

Hear me out, what if I kill myself but come back to life in ten years? Winning.

 

[UConNick]

Had a day now to digest this and think about what could happen in the future. Just all speculation on my part.

I think either now (next couple years) or in the 2030s this ends with a 24-team B1G that also adds ND, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, UW, UVA, UNC, and GA Tech or Miami. Cal’s obviously a little shaky, but it’s a natural Stanford partner and gives them six PST teams for a pod.

Assuming the ACC is still a thing after the SEC adds VA Tech, Clemson, FSU, and the other between GA Tech/UM to get to 20, I’d hope we can be backfill and join a league that’s basically the 2000s Big East +Duke, Wake, and NCST (who maaaybe could get an SEC look). This all also would hinge on a PAC-12/XII merger of some form, or else the XII teams could easily loot or be looted by the ACC. Hell, maybe we shake WVU loose from that abomination.

E: might as well go full off-the-rails. I suppose the SEC could want a foothold in the NC area and grab NCST instead of Miami, if they don’t want to oversaturate FL.

BCU, Cuse, Pitt, UL, Wake, Duke, NCST/MIA, WVU, UConn. Maybe +USF or something. Something like that is probably our most optimistic outcome grounded in an ounce of reality. Of course, the pie-in-the-sky hope would be we’re number 24 to the B1G, but I can’t rationally entertain that right now.

I hate all of this. Take me back to 1990s/2000s conferences.

 

[metsfan2323]

Scenario - with USC joining the B1G, Notre Dame joins its other rival Stanford and they go B1G together. ND’s key rivals are consolidated in conference.

The Big East, B12, and PAC collaborate on re-alignment to avoid further dilution through replacement, and in an effort to keep some sanity in regionalization.

Kansas is the catalyst for Big East involvement, and the Big East only expands for Kansas. Kansas brings K State and Iowa State along as historic regional rivals, and join the western division of the Big East. To balance east and west, Cincy and Temple are accepted.

The Big East does nothing for Kansas, it actually does less than nothing (far less money). If the B12 implodes Kansas will be one of the first teams taken and will get a much better offer than The Big East. Likely the ACC and even a diminished ACC will be a better fit for Kansas than the Big East. Sorry.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Your level of certainty on the “no” is a good sign that a “yes” is possible.

Nah, I just happen to know more about Kansas, as a person from Kansas who attended the school, along with many relatives over several generations, than you do as a Villanova fan.

 

[ZooCougar]

Nah, I just happen to know more about Kansas, as a person from Kansas who attended the school, along with many relatives over several generations, than you do as a Villanova fan.

KU to the Big East was definitely being shopped around but the prospects of that are dim as of yesterday.

It’s pretty much a dead issue.

 

[ZooCougar]

Your level of certainty on the “no” is a good sign that a “yes” is possible.

100% not happening.

 

[The Viking]

So the Big 10 is now pausing and waiting to see what Notre Dame wants to do. The Ohio State AD said yesterday flat out he wants them in the league. I’d imagine the B1G will continue to be patient and wait out ND. They just landed two huge fish and are willing to let the pieces settle for a decade if need be.

I would assume they are currently or have recently been in conversations with ND regarding what it would take for them to join.

When does ND finally relent?

ND, Stanford, UW, Oregon puts them at 20, and gives them a 5 team western division with the entire west coast covered.

Any ND fans on here who still scream for independence no matter what?

 

[uconnsouth]

Have to figure the B1G would want Clemson and FSU and cut into the south for TV/Recruiting..? Thoughts?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If college baseball is a minor league, the NCAA football and NCAA basketball are very successful minor leagues.

There is nothing else like NCAA football or NCAA basketball anywhere in the world in the sense that other countries do not have college athletics that millions of people care about. There are many reasons why those two sports are so popular and lucrative and other minor leagues are not, but any list has to include 1) the fact that most of the country is connected to a major school athletic program in some way, either directly as an alumni or as a family member or friend of an alumni, and 2) the NFL and NBA leave money on the table by not doing the minor league themselves.

Now college sports wants to break that fan connection, while also make it easier for the major leagues to step in front of them and become the sponsor of the minor league.

Or do you think that all those ACC, Big 12 and PAC 12 fans, plus all the G5 fans and others interested in college sports, will drop what they are doing every Saturday to watch Missouri/Mississippi State or Iowa/Minnesota because now all of their teams have been made irrelevant?

 

[BigTenFan]

Have to figure the B1G would want Clemson and FSU and cut into the south for TV/Recruiting..? Thoughts?

Not likely- Neither team is an AAU member
B1G Ten is in the driver's seat now- There are no Universities that they 'need'
Interestingly, ND is not an AAU school- but they would get a pass. ND should be picking up the phone and calling B1G Ten commissioner - The longer they stay independent - their power diminishes

 

[Rico444]

There is nothing else like NCAA football or NCAA basketball anywhere in the world in the sense that other countries do not have college athletics that millions of people care about. There are many reasons why those two sports are so popular and lucrative and other minor leagues are not, but any list has to include 1) the fact that most of the country is connected to a major school athletic program in some way, either directly as an alumni or as a family member or friend of an alumni, and 2) the NFL and NBA leave money on the table by not doing the minor league themselves.

The NFL tried to have a minor league and it flopped. The NBA has one and nobody watches.

 

[uconndogs]

There is nothing else like NCAA football or NCAA basketball anywhere in the world in the sense that other countries do not have college athletics that millions of people care about. There are many reasons why those two sports are so popular and lucrative and other minor leagues are not, but any list has to include 1) the fact that most of the country is connected to a major school athletic program in some way, either directly as an alumni or as a family member or friend of an alumni, and 2) the NFL and NBA leave money on the table by not doing the minor league themselves.

Now college sports wants to break that fan connection, while also make it easier for the major leagues to step in front of them and become the sponsor of the minor league.

Or do you think that all those ACC, Big 12 and PAC 12 fans, plus all the G5 fans and others interested in college sports, will drop what they are doing every Saturday to watch Missouri/Mississippi State or Iowa/Minnesota because now all of their teams have been made irrelevant?

Great post!

 

[uconndogs]

Not likely- Neither team is an AAU member
B1G Ten is in the driver's seat now- There are no Universities that they 'need'
Interestingly, ND is not an AAU school- but they would get a pass. ND should be picking up the phone and calling B1G Ten commissioner - The longer they stay independent - their power diminishes

I don’t see why the Big cares about FSU or Clemson. They want to be the dominant player in their markets. I also suspect there is a wink and a nod between the SEC and Big. They both know where this is going and it makes no sense for them to get in the way of each other.

I seriously doubt AAU status or any other academic standards have much to do with this anymore. This is about lucrative markets.

 

[Jbirdp5]

Not likely- Neither team is an AAU member
B1G Ten is in the driver's seat now- There are no Universities that they 'need'
Interestingly, ND is not an AAU school- but they would get a pass. ND should be picking up the phone and calling B1G Ten commissioner - The longer they stay independent - their power diminishes

Agree, the SEC and big are now the only two leagues that truly “matter”. Whatever 4 teams they each choose to add is not as big of a deal at this point.

 

[CL82]

Here is the relevant language from the ACC contract:

It’s the uncertainty that makes it a powerful tool. There’s a world of what ifs there. For example if a team leaves ESPN still has the rights to broadcast they’re covered home games. If an ACC team moves onto a big 10 schedule, ESPN would have the right to broadcast games or not. Presumably it also has the obligation to pay the conference for the content. I say presumably because I don’t have the separate ESPN contract with the ACC. So, if the team still is obligated to give it to rights to the league in the to the ESPN, and ESPN is still obligated to pay the league, how was the league damaged by the departure? Couldn’t one make an argument that the exit fees plus the grant of rights fully compensates the conference? If that were true the cost of leaving the ACC would be $52 million.

What if ESPN chooses not to put any of the schools product on TV? Is that a de facto breach of contract?

What if the departing school chooses to play its home games and a neutral venue? ESPN would still have their rights, but they be valueless.

I would love to see one of these things get litigated just to see how issues like these get sorted out. I would not want to be one of the litigants though. Because on top of whatever the ultimate resolution is it’s going to cost people a world of money and legal fees.

 

[McLovin]

Not likely- Neither team is an AAU member
B1G Ten is in the driver's seat now- There are no Universities that they 'need'
Interestingly, ND is not an AAU school- but they would get a pass. ND should be picking up the phone and calling B1G Ten commissioner - The longer they stay independent - their power diminishes

People just don’t get it.

AAU membership is an easy public cover of why the BIG wouldn’t take a school.

I’d assume more non-AAU members would also get a pass if it made financial sense for the conference.

Money talks and there is nothing these conferences or their TV partners will let stand in the way of making more if possible.

 

[McLovin]

Here is the relevant language from the ACC contract:
View attachment 77329
It’s the uncertainty that makes it a powerful tool. There’s a world of what ifs there. For example if a team leaves ESPN still has the rights to broadcast they’re covered home games. If an ACC team moves onto a big 10 schedule, ESPN would have the right to broadcast games or not. Presumably it also has the obligation to pay the conference for the content. I say presumably because I don’t have the separate ESPN contract with the ACC. So, if the team still is obligated to give it to rights to the league in the to the ESPN, and ESPN is still obligated to pay the league, how was the league damaged by the departure? Couldn’t one make an argument that the exit fees plus the grant of rights fully compensates the conference? If that were true the cost of leaving the ACC would be $52 million.

What if ESPN chooses not to put any of the schools product on TV? Is that a de facto breach of contract?

What if the departing school chooses to play its home games and a neutral venue? ESPN would still have their rights, but they be valueless.

I would love to see one of these things get litigated just to see how issues like these get sorted out. I would not want to be one of the litigants though. Because on top of whatever the ultimate resolution is it’s going to cost people a world of money and legal fees.

The same vague language that people think the ACC will use to keep schools locked in will be what the schools and their lawyers will use to weasel their way out.

Plus, SEC is an ESPN property so presumably any school defecting for them would have an easier time negotiating with ESPN. Who also probably sees the writing on the wall that the ACC is dead, and will want to protect their own butts.