Here’s a bombshell

[BlueandOG]

Here are my thoughts:

1). We are not going to the SEC or B1G. The ACC is the next best for us due to its $ (not as good as B1G or SEC, but still good) and its stability (GOR is rock solid for over a decade).
2). The ACC is going to expand to compete with B1G and SEC. With 15 current members (including ND), it will add at least 3 schools.
4). The schools it will add will have to be from the B12, AAC, or independent.
5). UCONN, Kansas, and WVU will be in the conversation.

 

[ZooCougar]

Here are my thoughts:

1). We are not going to the SEC or B1G. The ACC is the next best for us due to its $ (not as good as B1G or SEC, but still good) and its stability (GOR is rock solid for over a decade).
2). The ACC is going to expand to compete with B1G and SEC. With 15 current members (including ND), it will add at least 3 schools.
4). The schools it will add will have to be from the B12, AAC, or independent.
5). UCONN, Kansas, and WVU will be in the conversation.

The ACC is going to get ransacked worse than the Breakfast Bar at a Golden Corral on a Sunday morning anywhere in the south.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Get a Job]

Whenever they stop wearing the name of a school on their uni.

This is exactly right. All you people on your amateurism high horse sound ridiculous. Once the whistle blows it's your team versus someone else, and there's no way to know if the kids are getting paid, or if they're transfers, or if they plan on leaving after the season for a better NIL deal. As long as there's a big crowd, a pep band, cheerleaders, and 13 guys in a UConn jersey, the sport will be just fine as far as I'm concerned, and I think most fans agree. It just happens that the old fuddyduddy demographic is wildly over-represented on the Boneyard, so it may not appear that way.

 

[McLovin]

???

The B1G would be losing money here since the payout comes from the TV networks to the conference. The networks don't care if it's for TV or brand or whatever. Who cares?

I don't understand your argument.

Hypothetically, TV gives the B1G $200 for 20 teams, that would mean each team gets $10m. That money gets sent to the ACC.

So if the B1G is doling out money to its new school from the ACC (something it never did for Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland), then the B1G schools are all losing money. For more than a decade.

The conferences can divide up and pay out the money any way they want.

Why couldn't there be a conversation / deal like this...

"Hey BIG, this is the president of FOX. I want you to go add 4 schools from the ACC so we can get your conference up to 20 teams, a number we feel is necessary for you to continue to be a big time conference. However, as we saw with Rutgers and Maryland, it has taken them nearly a decade for their athletic programs to adjust to the mighty BIG after coming from "lesser" conferences. So we will pay your existing schools $50 million per year for their media rights but the new 4 schools only $10 million per year to start. But because we want to protect our long term investment in your conference, we will provide you with an extra $40 million per year for the 4 new schools, as an investment in their programs to bring their brands and on field performance to the level of competitiveness we expect from a BIG school. This $40 million per year money is not for their media rights, but to ensure they can assimilate their programs into the toughest conference in America. After 2035 we will consider increasing the media rights for those 4 new programs to the full $50 million per year."

All I'm saying is that if FOX and the BIG want any ACC school, their accountants and lawyers can get creative in how they distribute the money and skirt the GOR.

At the very least draw out a lawsuit long enough over the distributions until the ACC is dead (kind of like how the PGA thinks they can outlast the LIV tour with a lengthy legal battle)

 

[Waquoit]

If the ACC is talking about higher shares to appease target schools, they must be concerned on some level, right?

If they are talking about appeasing target schools with higher shares, they must not be talking UConn, right?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

0

If ACC schools want to negotiate out of GOR, why not sign with Big 10 and agree to not get television revenue share up until 2035. So remaining ACC schools get nothing until then, and that would be a negotiating point between the leaving schools and the ACC.

Some schools joining new leagues have agreed to smaller payouts for a while (think Rutgers did that with Big 10).

Not sure how GOR written but if for example Miami wanted out of ACC and would cancel football program would they be required to pay ACC anything through 2035.

A lot of people are missing the point on what a grant of rights is.

For the next fifteen years the ACC has the broadcast rights to all games that would belong to each individual member. If for example Clemson were to leave the conference without negotiating a buyout from the GOR, any game they play that would qualify as "Clemson's" would belong to the ACC. I don't know the language in the GOR but I am completely confident that the term is clearly and thoroughly described within the agreement and includes overlapping with other conference members. An example (which I imagine is how this was written) would be all non-conference road games and all conference games in all sports.

Yes, this is not indentured servitude so there would be a way out but that would be a negotiated dollar amount that, considering the value of the GOR and the remaining term, would be massive.

The $125 million (not including exit fees) thrown around for ND may be a bit conservative and if the football contract is half of the total contract (not out of the realm of possibility), you're looking at a quarter billion to buyout of the GOR.

Logically present value of future cash flows (15 years, starting at $38 million per) discounted at whatever rate would make sense for the industry would provide value of the GOR per school. A quarter billion dollars (as the result of the above calculations) would be easily reached. The buyout will be prohibitive, which was exactly the goal.

 

[CTBballfan243]

If the ACC adds they will grab WVU and Kansas. WVU is a good add for football and basketball. Kansas is a great add for basketball and their football team ( although not very good) is still considerably better than UConn. Also, these adds will be easy to get approval from other league members. Unfortunately, UConn is still a really hard sell to the other conference members. UConn just needs to continue to improve. UConn will have another chance at moving up in conferences once the ACC GOR expires.

 

[ZooCougar]

0

A lot of people are missing the point on what a grant of rights is.

For the next fifteen years the ACC has the broadcast rights to all games that would belong to each individual member. If for example Clemson were to leave the conference without negotiating a buyout from the GOR, any game they play that would qualify as "Clemson's" would belong to the ACC. I don't know the language in the GOR but I am completely confident that the term is clearly and thoroughly described within the agreement and includes overlapping with other conference members. An example (which I imagine is how this was written) would be all non-conference road games and all conference games in all sports.

Yes, this is not indentured servitude so there would be a way out but that would be a negotiated dollar amount that, considering the value of the GOR and the remaining term, would be massive.

The $125 million (not including exit fees) thrown around for ND may be a bit conservative and if the football contract is half of the total contract (not out of the realm of possibility), you're looking at a quarter billion to buyout of the GOR.

Logically present value of future cash flows (15 years, starting at $38 million per) discounted at whatever rate would make sense for the industry would provide value of the GOR per school. A quarter billion dollars (as the result of the above calculations) would be easily reached. The buyout will be prohibitive, which was exactly the goal.

Actually you don’t get it. The ACC left behinds can accept a settlement or be in court into perpetuity.

 

[bendm]

For me this comes down to Arizona or UW. Do you want the Northwest or the Southwest. You can convince me either way but I keep going back to would you rather road trip to Phoenix or Seattle?

ASU is in Tempe just outside Phoenix and Zona is 2 hrs away in Tucson. The football programs at UW and Zona are not comparable either as UW is far superior.

Well you convinced me on Arizona over Washington, good thoughts.

See above. UW over zona is a no brainer.

 

[Zissou]

Scenario - with USC joining the B1G, Notre Dame joins its other rival Stanford and they go B1G together. ND’s key rivals are consolidated in conference.

The Big East, B12, and PAC collaborate on re-alignment to avoid further dilution through replacement, and in an effort to keep some sanity in regionalization.

Kansas is the catalyst for Big East involvement, and the Big East only expands for Kansas. Kansas brings K State and Iowa State along as historic regional rivals, and join the western division of the Big East. To balance east and west, Cincy and Temple are accepted.

The PAC and B12 merge, with full football divisions east and west. Big East members with FBS are football-only in the east division.

Big East
Villanova
UConn
Georgetown
Providence
St John’s
Seton Hall
Cincy
Temple

Kansas
K State
Iowa State
Creighton
Butler
Xavier
Marquette
DePaul

PAC USA East
Oklahoma State
TCU
Baylor
WVU
Houston
UCF
Kansas - FB only
K State - FB only
Iowa State - FB only
Cincy - FB only
UConn - FB only
Temple - FB only

PAC USA West
Cal
Arizona
ASU
Wash
Wash State
Oregon
Oregon State
Colorado
Utah
BYU
Texas Tech

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Scenario - with USC joining the B1G, Notre Dame joins its other rival Stanford and they go B1G together. ND’s key rivals are consolidated in conference.

The Big East, B12, and PAC collaborate on re-alignment to avoid further dilution through replacement, and in an effort to keep some sanity in regionalization.

Kansas is the catalyst for Big East involvement, and the Big East only expands for Kansas. Kansas brings K State and Iowa State along as historic regional rivals, and join the western division of the Big East. To balance east and west, Cincy and Temple are accepted.

The PAC and B12 merge, with full football divisions east and west. Big East members with FBS are football-only in the east division.

Big East
Villanova
UConn
Georgetown
Providence
St John’s
Seton Hall
Cincy
Temple

Kansas
K State
Iowa State
Creighton
Butler
Xavier
Marquette
DePaul

PAC USA East
Oklahoma State
TCU
Baylor
WVU
Houston
UCF
Kansas - FB only
K State - FB only
Iowa State - FB only
Cincy - FB only
UConn - FB only
Temple - FB only

PAC USA West
Cal
Arizona
ASU
Wash
Wash State
Oregon
Oregon State
Colorado
Utah
BYU
Texas Tech

So basically a considerably larger version of what Marinatto & Beebe worked together to prevent a decade ago.

 

[Billy Bob]

This is exactly right. All you people on your amateurism high horse sound ridiculous. Once the whistle blows it's your team versus someone else, and there's no way to know if the kids are getting paid, or if they're transfers, or if they plan on leaving after the season for a better NIL deal. As long as there's a big crowd, a pep band, cheerleaders, and 13 guys in a UConn jersey, the sport will be just fine as far as I'm concerned, and I think most fans agree. It just happens that the old fuddyduddy demographic is wildly over-represented on the Boneyard, so it may not appear that way.

Well, I think most agree it wasn't so fine in the AAC

 

[Zissou]

So basically a considerably larger version of what Marinatto & Beebe worked together to prevent a decade ago.

Kansas being the game changer…

Without Kansas, the Big East stays at 11. Kansas is a big enough fish to alter the make-up.

 

[bendm]

Pac-12 to explore expansion options after losing USC, UCLA

The Pac-12 board of directors has approved the conference to explore expansion options after USC and UCLA announced their decision on Thursday to leave for the Big Ten in 2024.

theathletic.com

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If you were born and raised in New England that may be your take but out here in Chicago Big Ten football and Notre Dame football are as big a draw or a bigger draw than pro football. College football and basketball are quite a bit different than the pros and many people prefer the college versions.

It isn't going to be college anymore. It is just a minor league with school jerseys on the players.

 

[NowInStorrs]

Pac-12 to explore expansion options after losing USC, UCLA

The Pac-12 board of directors has approved the conference to explore expansion options after USC and UCLA announced their decision on Thursday to leave for the Big Ten in 2024.

theathletic.com

If they haven't already been exploring those options, they're too late.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Please provide a list of the minor leagues that have alumni.

I'm not saying this is good, or that the future of college sports will be great. I'm only pointing out that even if it is a minor league of sorts, it is inherently different than something like baseball's minor leagues.

College baseball has alumni.

All the NFL would have to do is wait for college football to get down to 20-30 teams (sounds like something that will happen within 5 years), and then form a minor league. Make it so that kids who go to college are not draft eligible until after their 4th year of college. How many 5 stars will go to college?

 

[CL82]

0

A lot of people are missing the point on what a grant of rights is.

For the next fifteen years the ACC has the broadcast rights to all games that would belong to each individual member. If for example Clemson were to leave the conference without negotiating a buyout from the GOR, any game they play that would qualify as "Clemson's" would belong to the ACC. I don't know the language in the GOR but I am completely confident that the term is clearly and thoroughly described within the agreement and includes overlapping with other conference members. An example (which I imagine is how this was written) would be all non-conference road games and all conference games in all sports.

Yes, this is not indentured servitude so there would be a way out but that would be a negotiated dollar amount that, considering the value of the GOR and the remaining term, would be massive.

The $125 million (not including exit fees) thrown around for ND may be a bit conservative and if the football contract is half of the total contract (not out of the realm of possibility), you're looking at a quarter billion to buyout of the GOR.

Logically present value of future cash flows (15 years, starting at $38 million per) discounted at whatever rate would make sense for the industry would provide value of the GOR per school. A quarter billion dollars (as the result of the above calculations) would be easily reached. The buyout will be prohibitive, which was exactly the goal.

Really interesting question is are who broadcasts the departing teams games. Say, Michigan is playing at Notre Dame in basketball. Due to the grant of rights to the ACC which sold to ESPN, does ESPN broadcast it? Do they just ignore it? If they don’t broadcast it then haven’t they, in essence, converted Notre Dame‘s valuable grant of rights to something worth zero dollars? If they decide not to broadcast it, would they except an offer from fox or the BTN for the rights to the game? People talk about grants of rights as if they are absolutely ironclad and as if every issue has been resolved. There a relatively new development that hasn’t been litigated yet. No one is entirely sure how that would work out.

 

[ThabeetDown]

There is every chance that the ACC stays intact and very little chance Miami, FSU or Clemson joins the SEC in 5 years. Why would ESPN wreck the ACC so that they can pay triple the amount they current pay for those three schools?

You guys do know that the networks make these decisions, right?

Because ESPN could make more money with a better version of the SEC. Do we think ESPN can make more money off of Clemson-BC or Clemson-[insert SEC team] at the end of the day? It’s naive to think the ACC lasts until 2027. It’s idiotic to think it lasts to 2037.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The B1G is not going to incorporate 6 Pac-10 teams. The money is huge but it's finite. All I'm saying is that the Pac10 left behinds are a lot more valuable than the top B12 schools, so they'd be negotiating from a position of strength.

So--ok, fine, give them Oregon and Washington, then look at who remains:

Cal-Berkeley, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State.

I'd take these 8 schools every single day over Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, TCU, Baylor, Kansas St., West Virginia, Iowa State, Cincy, UCF, Houston, BYU.

Kansas is the one I wonder about since their bball has some appeal.

I somewhat agree, but it’s a mix. Oregon St and Washington St aren’t any more valuable than K State. Arguably less so, as K state is athletically stronger. So is Baylor. Oklahoma State is probably more valuable than Arizona State or Arizona since football matters most.

Cal, Stanford, Colorado and KU would be the most valuable programs from those two conferences. But there really is no position of strength except what TV payout they can get.

 

[Chin Diesel]

ASU is in Tempe just outside Phoenix and Zona is 2 hrs away in Tucson. The football programs at UW and Zona are not comparable either as UW is far superior.

See above. UW over zona is a no brainer.

Eh, if you are basing this on which football program is better, I can't help you. But there are hundreds of thousands if not millions of midwest transplants living in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tucson, Tempe, etc either full time or as snowbirds and they would absolutely drive the hour or two to see their team crush Arizona in a regular season game or support their team for any Arizona-based bowl games.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Please provide a list of the minor leagues that have alumni.

I'm not saying this is good, or that the future of college sports will be great. I'm only pointing out that even if it is a minor league of sorts, it is inherently different than something like baseball's minor leagues.

People root for the laundry. Its much less about the athletic product than it is some feeling of association with teams. It’s why the whole storyline about players being underpaid was simplistic. Few of them have any appeal except for the logo on their jersey or helmet. It’s why USC and UCLA are the prizes in the PAC.

Meanwhile, cable TV won’t have this money to throw at college sports much longer. The whole conference structure could unravel soon. Value in the streaming world is different than in the cable world.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Kansas being the game changer…

Without Kansas, the Big East stays at 11. Kansas is a big enough fish to alter the make-up.

They aren’t going to the Big East. No chance. I’ve explained why several times. I think it would be a pretty big gut check even to go to the ACC, but Duke and Carolina would make that viable. but they would have no rivals, no teams near them.

The Big 12 is likely to be shredded. That’s the result here. Where the pieces land I don’t know. A PAC Big 12 merger seems likely, and KU could live with that. They‘d have East + West divisions.

Some Big12 schools would be left out. They‘d keep the name and likely poach whoever they didn’t grab before from the AAC and Mountain West.

 

[upstater]

Please provide a list off all the minor leagues that are wildly successful.

The SEC for one