Here’s a bombshell

[AZHuskiePop]

Of course. But more than that, if ND wants independence but all their options are in the BiG, like USC & Michigan for example, then they’ll be forced to join whether they like it or not.
Either way they’ll get paid, but if they have to choose between SEC or B1G, who do you think they’ll go with?

If you looked at ND’s revenue
media is a fraction even if doubled by the B1G contract .
They believe some of that over $100,000,000 in revenue would be in jeopardy if they were in a conference and didn’t dominate it.
They believe their independence and national appeal create that stream. Until that’s in decline they have no reason to join. Would you?

 

[huskysupporter]

There is no way the Pac 12 merges with the B12, unless you're referring to the Pac 12 raiding the B12 for 2 schools.

That is what I am referring too.

 

[NJHusky]

They've shown over and over throughout realignment they don't care about rivalries and travel.

Exactly…it’s about how much the RSN pays the conf. It’s why B1G took Rutgers. I am forced to pay for the Big Te. Network. Everyone in the state is.

 

[NJHusky]

Lack of leadership over the last 10 years has killed UConn . No stability nor tenure

Actually IMO demographics hurts UConn. Not enough people in the state to add much from a media rights standpoint

 

[LoyalFanCT]

Actually IMO demographics hurts UConn. Not enough people in the state to add much from a media rights standpoint

No no no. Part of Connecticut is in metro New York City market. Metro Hartford, New Haven market is sought after too.

 

[LBird33]

Can’t wait until the car wash opens today to get the real inside scoop

 

[Stinger92860]

AD DB better not be monitoring the situation

I sense more fight in Dave.

 

[Stinger92860]

Northeast is college hoops crazy, they just unfortunately don't do college football well so there's disinterest.

If the super conferences result in leaving the NCAA, billions would be in play for basketball.

 

[NJHusky]

No no no. Part of Connecticut is in metro New York City market. Metro Hartford, New Haven market is sought after too.

I know Ct gets NYC tv. Rutgers gets the B1G that market already. I’m talking about number of people paying to access the RSN…every month. My guess is Ru Is giving the B1G 10 mill a month. NJ has 3x the Ct population and has delivered NYC media access.

 

[CL82]

They own the tv rights to Notre Dame’s football games at ACC arenas. It’s why you can find some Irish games on the ACC network.

I don’t believe the ACC has any ownership in Notre Dame football. The reason why you can find some Notre Dame games on the ACC Netwerk is because they are playing away games against ACC teams.

 

[Stinger92860]

Actually IMO demographics hurts UConn. Not enough people in the state to add much from a media rights standpoint

UConn is a top 30 TV market, which does not include Fairfield County, which is part of the NYC DMA. If you add in Fairfield County we are close to top 25. It’s much bigger than the Oklahoma City market for example. Add in the average income per household and it’s a sizable DMA for advertising.

DMA Demographics

 

[husky429]

It's just stuck in my head that California if it was a country would have the 5th highest GDP and it's shy of $4 trillion.

A lot of money in the Northeast and it's not that huge an area.

The one that sticks with me is that NFL revenue is projected to be 27 billion in 2027. That would put them in the top third of countries GDP.

 

[NJHusky]

UConn is a top 30 TV market, which does not include Fairfield County, which is part of the NYC DMA. If you add in Fairfield County we are close to top 25. It’s much bigger than the Oklahoma City market for example. Add in the average income per household and it’s a sizable DMA for advertising.

DMA Demographics

I’m not disputing any of this. All I’m saying is I assume all of Ct is either already getting the B1G network if u r in the NY market or Acc network if u r in the Boston market. Adding UConn doesn’t add any additional RSN fees. Before RU joined the B1G my cable didn’t charge me for B1G network…now they do.

My assumption is that once UCLA and USC join the B1G network will be on most of California cable packages. At $2 per month that’s a nice annuity BEFORE They renegotiate the tv deal

 

[Stinger92860]

I’m not disputing any of this. All I’m saying is I assume all of Ct is either already getting the B1G network if u r in the NY market or Acc network if u r in the Boston market. Adding UConn doesn’t add any additional RSN fees. Before RU joined the B1G my cable didn’t charge me for B1G network…now they do.

My assumption is that once UCLA and USC join the B1G network will be on most of California cable packages. At $2 per month that’s a nice annuity BEFORE They renegotiate the tv deal

Do the TV’s in the Hartford DMA have either the ACC or B1G network? I don’t know. If not, thats still #30, almost 1M tvs, and that should move the needle for us. We also don’t need a full share. I know it’s not a lot, but UConn’s Women BBall has done well on the B1G Network.

 

[uconnric]

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how things work.

The Big 10 and SEC cannot take any ACC schools as they have pledged their rights to the conference until 2037.

Why are Oklahoma and Texas waiting until 2025 to move to the SEC? That’s when their GOR expires. Why would UCLA and USC be leaving in 2024? That is when their GOR expires.

The ACC is where it will be. They can add, but they won’t see subtraction.

With the money and prestige on the table, the GOR will be a negotiated exit for teams leaving the ACC.

 

[ThabeetDown]

With the money and prestige on the table, the GOR will be a negotiated exit for teams leaving the ACC.

Exactly. There is ZERO chance the ACC stays intact until 2037. It won't even keep all its members until 2027. Clemson/FSU and probably Miami will be in the SEC within the next 5 years and there is nothing the ACC can do about it.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Wild times again. I can see the ACC and PAC trying to pick off the best pieces of the Big 12. And the ACC’s case, possibly UConn. It’s our only hope. It’s not going to be just two conferences, the belief was it would be four. The B1G and SEC will just be the strongest.

TV markets still matter, but not as much as brand recognition and a national following. Not sure why people don’t get that.

ACC has to think about how far west it wants to go. A school like Kansas may need to think about whether to throw in with the PAC or ACC (assuming the B1G doesn’t call, which they’d love).

 

[Chin Diesel]

Pure speculation but trying to keep some sense of reality for the B1G.

USC and UCLA are now in the fold. The expansion is done for the time being statement is true but by the time you say the phrase "for the time being" the time being has passed. I think B1g still has eyes out west. Stanford to me is a logical partner for NDU. Another private school with elite academics, great olympic sports and the San Fran TV market. Gives the B1G great private academics with Northwestern, NDU, Stanford and USC.

I think Oregon is in. Phil Knight and Nike aren't sitting around to be left scrambling.

So, if you have Stanford, NDU and Oregon, you need one more. For me this comes down to Arizona or UW. Do you want the Northwest or the Southwest. You can convince me either way but I keep going back to would you rather road trip to Phoenix or Seattle? Where do B1G fans go to retire? Which location has better opportunities for bowl games in December and January?

So, I think the end game is NDU, Stanford, Oregon and UA. If NDU is a no go, I think you can still put in UW and have a Washington, Arizona, Stanford and Oregon grouping and still make it work.

EDIT: Even though I think we are well past the charade, Arizona, Washington, Stanford and Oregon are all AAU members.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Wild times again. I can see the ACC and PAC trying to pick off the best pieces of the Big 12. And the ACC’s case, possibly UConn. It’s our only hope. It’s not going to be just two conferences, the belief was it would be four. The B1G and SEC will just be the strongest.

TV markets still matter, but not as much as brand recognition and a national following. Not sure why people don’t get that.

ACC has to think about how far west it wants to go. A school like Kansas may need to think about whether to throw in with the PAC or ACC (assuming the B1G doesn’t call, which they’d love).

 

[JeepCSC]

Well you convinced me on Arizona over Washington, good thoughts.

 

[QuickDraw]

Oops, I misunderstood the title

 

[Tenspro2002]

Pure speculation but trying to keep some sense of reality for the B1G.

USC and UCLA are now in the fold. The expansion is done for the time being statement is true but by the time you say the phrase "for the time being" the time being has passed. I think B1g still has eyes out west. Stanford to me is a logical partner for NDU. Another private school with elite academics, great olympic sports and the San Fran TV market. Gives the B1G great private academics with Northwestern, NDU, Stanford and USC.

I think Oregon is in. Phil Knight and Nike aren't sitting around to be left scrambling.

So, if you have Stanford, NDU and Oregon, you need one more. For me this comes down to Arizona or UW. Do you want the Northwest or the Southwest. You can convince me either way but I keep going back to would you rather road trip to Phoenix or Seattle? Where do B1G fans go to retire? Which location has better opportunities for bowl games in December and January?

So, I think the end game is NDU, Stanford, Oregon and UA. If NDU is a no go, I think you can still put in UW and have a Washington, Arizona, Stanford and Oregon grouping and still make it work.

EDIT: Even though I think we are well past the charade, Arizona, Washington, Stanford and Oregon are all AAU members.

Why not Cal? The B1G is big on state flagships, and they would bring Bay Area interest.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Why not Cal? The B1G is big on state flagships, and they would bring Bay Area interest.

Pure speculation on my part, but I think if you are trying to lure NDU to the B1G, you go with Stanford over Cal. Even without NDU I think Stanford has the better national profile and olympic sports. B1G already has UCLAs as an elite public university and if they add some combo of Arizona, Oregon or Washington, they have plenty more state flagships.

Again, just an opinion but I don't think Cal has near the brand recognition athletically as Stanford.

 

[QDOG5]

Yes, I am quite certain the B1G or any other conference would love to have ND.

This statement is true. ND can pick which conference it wants to join the only difference this time is ND won't be able to dictate the terms.

 

[NowInStorrs]

Is anyone still going to have a cable subscription in 5 or 10 years?

 

[McLovin]

People acting like GOR is iron clad are hilarious. Literally nothing is impossible to skirt around.

I haven’t read the ACC contract but here’s an potential work around. The BIG or SEC pays a school $50 mil per year. $5 mil is their media rights, $45 mil is for the conference to us the schools brand / likeness to “market the conference”.

Point is, they will figure out other ways for the money to get to these school in a way that keeps it from the hands of the ACC (if it even still exists in a few years).

 

[HuskyHawk]

Pure speculation on my part, but I think if you are trying to lure NDU to the B1G, you go with Stanford over Cal. Even without NDU I think Stanford has the better national profile and olympic sports. B1G already has UCLAs as an elite public university and if they add some combo of Arizona, Oregon or Washington, they have plenty more state flagships.

Again, just an opinion but I don't think Cal has near the brand recognition athletically as Stanford.

Agreed. Neither has a huge fan following in the Bay Area except when they play each other. I was surprised by this when I lived there, but the student bodies of both schools just aren’t that into sports. Variety of reasons for that.

 

[CL82]

I’m not disputing any of this. All I’m saying is I assume all of Ct is either already getting the B1G network if u r in the NY market or Acc network if u r in the Boston market. Adding UConn doesn’t add any additional RSN fees. Before RU joined the B1G my cable didn’t charge me for B1G network…now they do.

My assumption is that once UCLA and USC join the B1G network will be on most of California cable packages. At $2 per month that’s a nice annuity BEFORE They renegotiate the tv deal

Sort of. The Big Ten receives a premium rate for households within the NYDMA, which includes Fairfield County. they are not getting it for the remaining 2 million people in the rest of the state. (Really, this discussion is more accurate if you talk about households rather than population, I just don’t know those numbers off the top of my head.) So adding Connecticut does give the big 10 a potential revenue boost. The question is whether that revenue boost is enough to pay for Connecticut getting a share of the rest of the Big 10’s income distributions. My guess is probably not.

Fortuitously, that is not the only criteria as the world drifts away from cable TV and moves towards a subscription TV model. There, total fans become important, so that has to be included in modeling the revenue that Connecticut would bring. I’m still not confident that the math works, but it’s not as simple as whether or not every part of the state gets the BTN.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Who wants to pick the tipping point when fans decide that college sports is just a minor league for the pros and stop giving a spit about it?

 

[Hurleyman216]

This whole conference consolidation is stupid and I think long-term it’s killing college sports whose fans find themselves playing teams they don’t care about. I think this is a lot like big conglomerate companies that consolidate and eventually get too big for their own good. At some point these huge conferences will get small again as soon as there’s more value in breaking up. I don’t think the media companies/commissioners driving this realize how much the tv ratings will drop will all these teams changing conferences. The reality is there are still about 8-10 programs that are far more valuable than anyone else, so at some point the Texas, Michigans, Ohio States, Norte Dames of the world may just say “let’s form our own 8-10 team super conference”. In a 20-24 team league more than half of those teams will not be pulling their media payout weight. It actually just leads to more instability.