Gamecock fans, perhaps you can share your knowledge and insights. I view South Carolina as the most formidable (but not only) obstacle in the path of UConn winning title number 12. And while I watch the Huskies religiously, I have only seen the Gamecocks on a couple of occasions. As we were prepare for the tournament, I was hoping you could answer some questions about your team.
Let's look at the season stats for both South Carolina and Connecticut this season, and their national rankings:
South Carolina
Connecticut
Scoring Offense:
CT: 23 (74.8 ppg)
SC: 54 (71.3 ppg)
Scoring Defense:
SC: 4 (51.7 ppg)
CT: 12 (54.2 ppg)
Scoring Margin:
CT: 2 (20.6 ppg)
SC: 4 (19.6 ppg)
Rebounds Per Game:
SC: 3 (47.65 rpg)
CT: 94 (38.67 rpg)
Rebound Margin:
SC: 1 (17.2 rpg)
CT: 23 (7.3 rpg)
Blocked Shots Per Game:
SC: 1 (7.8 bpg)
CT: 29 (4.7 bpg)
Steals Per Game:
CT: 58 (9.3 spg)
SC: 294 (6.3 spg)
Assists Per Game:
CT: 5 (18.8 apg)
SC: 99 (14.2 apg)
Assists to Turnover Ratio:
CT: 9 (1.33)
SC: 97 (0.97)
FG Percentage:
CT: 2 (48.9%)
SC: 45 (43.4%)
FG Percentage Defense:
SC: 1 (33.0%)
CT: 14 (35.2%)
3-Pt. FG Percentage:
CT: 48 (34.1%)
SC: 126 (31.6%)
3-Pt. FG Percentage Defense:
SC: 23 (27.0%)
CT: 65 (28.4%)
Fewest Fouls Per Game:
CT: 79 (14.1 fpg)
SC: 111 (14.6 fpg)
Turnovers Forced:
CT: 160 (16.10)
SC: 314 (13.43)
- I view South Carolina's greatest advantage as its rebounding. Has any team been able to neutralize South Carolina on the boards, or at least keep them off the offensive glass?
Not really. There have been teams that have been able to match up well and be competitive against South Carolina in rebounding this season - NC State was out-rebounded 35-30 in the season opener for both teams, but that was one of the more competitive totals by the end of the game, and one of the games where the Gamecocks weren't able to have a large rebounding margin. As mentioned above Stanford out-rebounded the Gamecocks 40-38 in their game, and Georgia as well 37-35. Both were games where not only were the Gamecocks out-rebounded, but were kept at a relatively low rebounding total as well, which means it wasn't just a mad rebound-fest of poor shooting games, but the Gamecocks were actually held below their average by solid post play. The regular-season ending game with Ole Miss, the Rebels also did a good job competitively even though the Gamecocks won the battle of the boards 42-35.
- UConn has been very aggressive defensively since everyone has gotten healthy and forcing opposing teams to start their offensive sets far away from the basket. In thinking about how this might work against South Carolina, my sense is that South Carolina is very quick at the guard position and that they will not be easily "bottled up" by a trapping, switching defense. Do I have that right?
The Gamecock guards are very quick, and per se "bottling" them up will be difficult. However both have also been prone to bad turnover games and rushing themselves as they elude pressure defenses or try to pass out of them, so a pressure defense could still be effective. This is something our perimeter players will need to try and keep at a minimum.
- Both UConn and South Carolina had very heralded freshman classes coming into this season. UConn has gotten significant contributions from two of its freshmen, Fudd and Ducharme. How much have South Carolina's freshman contributed this season and which ones, if any, can be expected to see significant roles in the tournament?
Their contributions have been minimal at best, although they have shown flashes of their talent and what the future brings. This was a different environment this #1 class came into in Columbia, SC compared to the Aliyah Boston #1 class, where not only were there openings for starting positions, but a desperate need for the freshmen to step up and take those positions. Coming into this season, all starting spots plus several #2 spots off the bench were already full of very talented veterans, so the latest class has had to be patient and find their roles. Also unlike with Connecticut unfortunately for them, South Carolina hasn't had any major injury issues this season: the only substantial one actually involved one of the freshmen. Next season should open up more opportunities to make statements, but they haven't shown any indication that they won't capitalize on them.
- While South Carolina has an advantage in rebounding, UConn would seem to have the better shooters, particularly from the 3 point line. UConn shoots significantly more from 3 than the Gamecocks, and with greater accuracy. In practice, has South Carolina been handicapped or held back by its outside shooting?
Yes, but the "handicap" may not be what you think. Lets dive into the stats for each team:
The following are South Carolina's season stats, divided into out-of-conference games and conference games. These sets of stats are NOT as accurate as they could be, because at this stage of the season, a number of "non-conference" games are actually conference games - they are conference TOURNAMENT games that came after the regular season had concluded. But the numbers are still informative:
South Carolina (16 SEC Conference games; 16 out-of-conference games):
In Conf./Out of Conf.:
Scoring O: 71.7 ppg/ 71.4 ppg
Scoring D: 51.2 ppg/ 50.2 ppg
Scoring Margin: 20.5 ppg/ 21.2 ppg
Rebounding/Gm: 48.9 rpg/ 47.7 rpg
Rebounding Margin: 17.6 rpg/ 18.1 rpg
Assists/Gm: 13.9 apg/ 14.8 apg
Steals/Gm: 5.3 spg/ 7.7 spg
Blocked Shots/Gm: 7.3 bpg/ 8.1 bpg
Fouls/Gm: 12.7 fpg/ 14.2 fpg
Turnovers/Gm: 13.6 tpg/ 15.7 tpg
Forced Turnovers/Gm: 11.6/ 15.3
FG %: .434/ .428
FG % D: .325/ .324
3-Pt. FG %: .305/ .311
3-Pt. FG % D: .259/ .273
South Carolina played what was the overall #1 ranked NET, #1 ranked RPI, and #1 ranked SOS schedule in 2021-22 per Warren Nolan. Their out-of-conference SOS was ranked #3 by Nolan. The SEC by comparison was the #1 ranked NET, #1 ranked RPI, and #1 ranked SOS conference.
By looking at the statistical numbers, it looks like most projections for South Carolina's schedule is close to accurate. There are very little if any disparities in production for non-conference games as opposed to conference games. Typically for SEC teams, one generally sees a decline in stats from their non-conference levels once the conference schedule kicks in: teams and staffs are far more familiar with each other, games are played at a more consistent rate per week, and the gold carrot of conference standings and awards give added meaning and importance to the games. Typically, non-conference games are played to prepare the teams FOR the conference schedule, so that says it all right there.
With South Carolina's stats, we see slight declines in most stats for conference games, but mostly the production is quite similar from each group.
Connecticut (17 Big East Conference games; 13 out-of-conference games):
In Conf./Out of Conf.:
Scoring O: 78.4 ppg/ 70.1 ppg
Scoring D: 50.8 ppg/ 58.6 ppg
Scoring Margin: 27.6 ppg/ 11.5 ppg
Rebounding/Gm: 39.1 rpg/ 38.1 rpg
Rebounding Margin: 8.8 rpg/ 5.3 rpg
Assists/Gm: 19.9 apg/ 17.4 apg
Steals/Gm: 11.0 spg/ 7.1 spg
Blocked Shots/Gm: 5.2 bpg/ 4.1 bpg
Fouls/Gm: 13.1 fpg/ 14.2 fpg
Turnovers/Gm: 13.3 tpg/ 15.2 tpg
Forced Turnovers/Gm: 17.9/ 13.8
FG %: .503/ .471
FG % D: .342/ .365
3-Pt. FG %: .340/ .343
3-Pt. FG % D: .257/ .318
Connecticut played what was the #4 ranked NET schedule, #7 ranked RPI, and #28-ranked SOS schedule per Nolan. Their out-of-conference schedule was ranked #1 per Nolan. The Big East has the #8 conference NET ranking, the #8 RPI ranking, and the #7 SOS ranking.
With Connecticut, the stats tell a different story. During their years in the American Athletic Conference and now in the Big East, they have regularly scheduled some of the strongest out-of-conference schedules. Therefore, as has been typical with the Huskies' seasons, we see the noticeable uptick in production once they moved into conference play (remember the FIRST set of stats are for Big East play). This season's statistics are no different.
Connecticut has averaged 8.3 points per game (ppg) more versus Big East opponents than they have against everyone else, and allowed 7.8 ppg fewer points from them. As a result, their Scoring Margin went from 11.5 ppg during the non-conference season, to an eye-popping 27.6 ppg margin during conference play.
Most other numbers were not that drastic, but still across the board improved once they moved into Big East play. And as a result, their overall statistics improved throughout the season. Should one compare Connecticut's non-conference stats with South Carolina's non-conference stats, they would see that South Carolina had the better scoring average while allowing fewer points scored, the better rebounding, blocked shot, and steal averages. CT had the better shooting average from the field and 3-pt line, but allowed an equal increase in opponents' shooting average which cancels those stats out.
Of course, this is comparing apples with oranges. South Carolina and Connecticut did NOT play the same non-conference schedules against the same non-conference opponents. And Connecticut did deal with the more impacting injuries to key players this season. But Bueckers only played in three (3) Big East conference regular-season games. She actually played more games during the non-conference portion of the schedule.
What would the Big East Conference stats had looked like if Paige was available for more of those games? In the 3 BE games she appeared in, CT averaged 85.0 ppg. In the 4 non-conference Bueckers played in, CT averaged 74.6 ppg and allowed 63.4 ppg. Compared with South Carolina's 71.4 and 50.2, for a scoring margin of 11.2 to USC's margin of 21.2.
But again, it is apples to oranges. But if we're going to make statements of "UConn would seem to have the better shooters, particularly from the 3 point line. UConn shoots significantly more from 3 than the Gamecocks, and with greater accuracy", then we're kinda forced to make those comparisons. About the ONLY thing I can readily agree with, is that CT shoots more from the 3 than South Carolina does.....