Game Analysis - UConn vs South Carolina

[ConwayGmck]

As for the comparison between Juhasz and Boston, that will be a substantial struggle for Juhasz. Dorka is a very talented big - she has the size and post presence that is required for the 5 position, but she does not impress me as being one of the physical, banging big-bodies and will pummel opponents all game long. And even if she were, CT just cannot afford such physicality from her or Edwards for that matter, due to their lack of bench depth. CT doesn't have the luxury of rolling reserves out on the floor in games, to use for their 5 fouls as much if not more than for anything else - just to wear down their opponent's bigs. As such, CT has to be VERY conservative with their fouling, game after game.

Boston has not dwelt in this kind of realm. The SEC is known for decades for it's physical defense and banging in the paint. Most SEC teams have resorted to doubling and even tripling Boston to prevent her from getting passes, and from getting good looks at the basket. Boston has mostly played her career dealing with this style.

South Carolina has drawn 19.9 fouls per game from their opponents over the course of the season, and 20.2 fouls per game in SEC play. By comparison, CT has fouled 13.7 times per game overall, and just 11.5 per game in Big East games. That's going to be hard for CT to foul at that rate, while also present USC with the same type of physical play in the paint that opponents have dealt out, and should CT try to ramp it up to what the Gamecocks are more familiar with, that may place several key Huskie players into foul trouble they can't afford for the game.....

 

[SLY63]

I think South Carolina is a particularly bad match-up for us. Their strengths are:

1. Aggressive athletic guards
2. Big physical front court
3. Excellent offensive rebounders
4. Deep bench

I see a very tough task (IMO Stanford, or anyone else, would be a better matchup)

With Azzi and CD we add much more offensive firepower and options.

 

[hoopsfan22]

When did Dawn Staley reach "a coaching legend?" Only in the mind of SC fans and ESPN, and Carolyn Peck.

When she won 2 of the last 5 national titles? How many coaches in the history of WCBB have done that?

we'll see what kind of legend she is when Boston is gone next season........

Who says she's leaving after this season? She can stay for her Covid year.

 

[HuskyNan]

I understand your point but think that a tightly officiated game benefits the team that fouls less, and the more talented team shouldn't need to foul more in order to win.
UConn starters simply need to adjust to the level of officiating.

Unfortunately, the refs can be inconsistent from half to half or even period to period, as in the Tennessee game.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I think South Carolina is a particularly bad match-up for us. Their strengths are:

1. Aggressive athletic guards
2. Big physical front court
3. Excellent offensive rebounders
4. Deep bench

I see a very tough task (IMO Stanford, or anyone else, would be a better matchup)

With Azzi and CD we add much more offensive firepower and options.

I actually think they are a better match up for us than a team that plays more similarly, like Nova or even Iowa. The problem is we have to play too similarly to them with our backcourt injuries so we don't stand much of a chance because their strengths are our strengths but they are stronger with them. If we get a healthy Azzi (even at 80%) and healthy Caroline (where she was at when she got reinjured) back this season I think we match up quite well with them. Unfortunately that won't be the case on Sunday.

 

[tkaes]

She’s one of the best coaches in the game today, in my opinion.

Staley is a very successful recruiter, perhaps even great because she can convince certain players to come play for her. But, what makes her a great coach?

Perhaps it's the lif changing foot ware.

I'd like to see her record if she had to coach a team as injury depleted as UCONN is this year.

 

[sun]

Unfortunately, the refs can be inconsistent from half to half or even period to period, as in the Tennessee game.

At a neutral site like in the NCAAT's, folks would expect less officiating & to let them play rougher.
But at a Big East home court I'd want the ref's to be more in control of the game.
The extra fouls would help give UConn players more breathers during the game too.
If they enforce tight rules from the beginning then players will be more careful to not foul.

I'm sure that Geno will give his starters the message to be careful because they don't have much of a bench, and to not take their court liberties for granted.
Especially with being such a high profile game with #1 at stake.
That's my hunch, let's wait & see if it works out that way to keep the game close/closer.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

As for the comparison between Juhasz and Boston, that will be a substantial struggle for Juhasz. Dorka is a very talented big - she has the size and post presence that is required for the 5 position, but she does not impress me as being one of the physical, banging big-bodies and will pummel opponents all game long. And even if she were, CT just cannot afford such physicality from her or Edwards for that matter, due to their lack of bench depth. CT doesn't have the luxury of rolling reserves out on the floor in games, to use for their 5 fouls as much if not more than for anything else - just to wear down their opponent's bigs. As such, CT has to be VERY conservative with their fouling, game after game.

Boston has not dwelt in this kind of realm. The SEC is known for decades for it's physical defense and banging in the paint. Most SEC teams have resorted to doubling and even tripling Boston to prevent her from getting passes, and from getting good looks at the basket. Boston has mostly played her career dealing with this style.

South Carolina has drawn 19.9 fouls per game from their opponents over the course of the season, and 20.2 fouls per game in SEC play. By comparison, CT has fouled 13.7 times per game overall, and just 11.5 per game in Big East games. That's going to be hard for CT to foul at that rate, while also present USC with the same type of physical play in the paint that opponents have dealt out, and should CT try to ramp it up to what the Gamecocks are more familiar with, that may place several key Husky players into foul trouble they can't afford for the game.....

I would imagine Dorka will continue to play around the perimeter for this game, not bang down low. I don't see her trying to score in the post as much as bring Boston out of the paint on defense and get stuck guarding her around the perimeter. If she can do that it potentially opens the offense up a bit for other players to score inside. For example, I don't know that Fletcher can keep up with Griffin's speed or that Raven Johnson can deal with her size so if Dork and Edwards can draw the post players out of paint, it will open things up for her to operate around the basket.


Still think South Carolina has the match up advantage BUT I would think UConn will find more success using their bigs outside versus attempting to bang with bigger bodies. Ironically, I think our backcourt has a bit of a size advantage over South Carolina's that they might want try to exploit at times.

On the defensive end - I don't think UConn will try to be overly physical with the frontcourt. To your point other teams have tried it every game and it hasn't been successful. I hope to see them pressure the backcourt instead and force midrange jumpers and bad decisions in general as much as possible versus being overly concerned with Boston. Obviously try not to let her get it in the low blocks but she will get hers anyways and South Caroline feasts off of the rebounds available from being overly concerned with Boston. I will say UConns been pretty bad this year at 3pt defense and they are fortunate that that is one of South Carolina's offensive weaknesses.

 

[Charliebball]

When she won 2 of the last 5 national titles? How many coaches in the history of WCBB have done that?


Who says she's leaving after this season? She can stay for her Covid year.

that's true but being the likely number one WNBA draft choice makes it more unlikely.........perhaps it will depend if South Carolina wins the NC this season.....

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I keep saying on different threads, that pressure out front, denying the wings, and fronting the posts combats the size advantage. Everything the offensive team does has to move further from the basket. All sports are games of angles. The angles flatten the further you are from the hoop and vice versa the angles are sharper the closer you are to the hoop.
It's your basic Coach K defense. We have the talent to do it. Nika's grit on top and a whole heck of a lot of versatility elsewhere. We can switch and hedge on all screens, even trap out of it. Put them on their heels.

I totally agree. Forget about doubling or tripling Boston, pressure the guards and the wings to make entry passes much more difficult. Not sure we have the stamina to do it 40 minutes with 5 players but it seems to be a far better strategy than triple teaming Boston and leaving two South Carolina players open for offensive rebounds.

 

[shiverz45]

She has not been mentioned much, but I won't be surprised if the best point guard on the floor is Raven Johnson. She is starting to show why she was rated the #2 player coming out of high school. She will be a big key for us come March.

 

[cferraro04]

Cook isn't their point guard. So the match-up would be Nika vs Fletcher and Lou vs Cook.

It still works because it is more of a statistical (both individually and collectively) analysis. Besides Fletcher only averages 15 minutes per game...so I think in addition to Nika playing off of Fletcher, you will see Nika playing off both Zia Cook and Bree Hall who also only averages 15 minutes per game

 

[hoopsnloops32]

She has not been mentioned much, but I won't be surprised if the best point guard on the floor is Raven Johnson. She is starting to show why she was rated the #2 player coming out of high school. She will be a big key for us come March.

She's good in the open floor but she still makes too many poor decisions in the half-court to be considered the better point guard than the player leading the country in assists with the best shooters and scorers on injured reserve for over half the season. No need to come here and disrespect Nika like that.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

It still works because it is more of a statistical (both individually and collectively) analysis. Besides Fletcher only averages 15 minutes per game...so I think in addition to Nika playing off of Fletcher, you will see Nika playing off both Zia Cook and Bree Hall who also only averages 15 minutes per game

Raven Johnson comes in for Fletcher, no Bree Hall. They way you have it is how I would imagine we will cover then defensively, not how they will defend us though.

If we were doing statistical comparison I think it would make sense to match them like this:
Lou - Cook
Nika - Fletcher/Johnson
Aubrey - Beal/Hall/Amihere
Dorka - Saxton/Cardosa
Edwards - Boston

These aren't direct comparisons of positions but more statistically significant players. Lou is our most important backcourt player, Cook is theirs. etc etc

 

[cferraro04]

Great analysis. I do have questions regarding your player comparisons: Muhl vs Cooke? I think most agree that Muhl IS CT's PG - she was after all slotted in to replace Bueckers, who is CT's PG1. Muhl leads the Huskies in apg, and typically has the ball in her hands when the game starts.

So why choose Zia? None of those apply to her. Zia is the SG1 for the Gamecocks. USC's PG1 and 2 are Keirra Fletcher and Raven Johnson. They have platooned from the very start of the season, with one or the other earning the starter's role based on how they played over the other. Initially Fletcher's upperclass experience earned her the starts, and she's started 19 of the 21 games they've played. Johnson however has been earning more mpg with every game, and is averaging slightly more now than Fletcher. She's almost to the point of winning the starting job.

Fletcher and Johnson have accounted for around 80% of the PG duties this season, with each getting around 40% each. The other 20% or so have gone to Cooke, Amihere, and Beal. They have only rarely been moved to a non-PG position in games, and when that has happened, it was when BOTH were in the game at the same time - mostly to give Cooke a spell. But that's only been rare.

Fletcher has shown that mature experience in handling the ball and getting the starting unit moving forward offensively to start games, and to start 2nd halves. She hasn't led the team in assists, but has a decent 38 assists to 21 turnovers, averaging 4.2 ppg and 3.7 rpg. She shoots 72% from the foul line and 40% from the field, but is NOT a 3-pt. shooter AT ALL. Raven is currently leading the team in apg (3.3) and spg (1.3) - she averages 3.6 ppg and 2.6 rpg for the season, but in 9 SEC gms that has improved to 5.0 ppg and 3.0 rpg. Johnson has 66 assists to only 27 TOs, good for a 2.4:1 A:TO ratio - since SEC play began, she's collected 30 assists to 13 turnovers. Johnson had a horrific time during the OOC schedule with her shooting, but is now shooting 50% from the field in SEC play, and 33% from the 3-pt. line.

Combined, that makes the PG position of Fletcher and Johnson averaging 7.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.0 apg with a 2.2 A:TO, and 2.0 spg. Cooke is actually 3rd on the team in assists overall, and since conference play began, is 5th against conf. opponents in assists. Beal is actually the top player after Fletcher and Johnson in this category: she has 50 assists to only 18 turnovers. In SEC play she has 23 assists to only 9 turnovers.

I would compare Muhl to Fletcher, with the understanding that Fletcher's PG role is to rotate with Johnson, not just for foul trouble, breather breaks, etc. I think Bettencourt mostly subs in for Muhl, doesn't she? Lopez Senechal has 26 assists and 26 turnovers in conference play....she is NOT CT's PG1.

But she is the more offensive-minded guard for the Huskies, similar to Cooke. I would compare those two players against each other....

All your points above make perfect sense and coming from a gamecock fan...I gotta take your word for it. I am a husky fan trying to analyze these games from behind my blue colored glasses. I don't get to watch too many of South Carolina's games...I have seen two this season and I should have picked up on the point guard slot...and you are right Raven is on the move and more than likely will figure in more significantly in March. However, since this is a spot by spot statistical analysis of the game...it still works...when it comes to statistics the pieces are somewhat movable even if "in vivo" they end up guarding a different person. As you know teams usually don't play man to man throughout the game anyway...there is a lot of zone being played.

I do appreciate the education however...because it is hard enough trying to figure out all the dynamics of our own team even with a depleted roster. Trying to understand all the nuances of all the other teams in the WCBB world is just an impossibility.

I want to wish you and your team luck in Sunday's game but, something tells me South Carolina is good enough that luck is not the primary actor...additionally, I couldn't in good conscience do that because whatever good luck comes your way I hope we get measurably more to come our way...and, I don't think the two are mutually exclusive... lol

 

[cferraro04]

When she won 2 of the last 5 national titles? How many coaches in the history of WCBB have done that?


Who says she's leaving after this season? She can stay for her Covid year.

I would find it hard to believe that the number one draft pick for the WNBA will stay for a COVID year...unless her NIL is as such that it doesn't matter.

 

[Viet Vet]

Way too much discussion is focused on the refs. I've been there, having officiated for 13 years. Refs (me too) make good calls and bad calls, and sometimes the bad calls may seem to fans to favor one side or the other.............depending on which side you are rooting for. But while the "calls" may seem to favor one team, the refs do not. It may fit the fans' narrative of a particular team to claim the refs are biased, but they are not, even when the fouls called are unbalanced.

It is not the refs' job to balance the ledger. It is their job to administer the game according to the rules.

BTW, would you like someone coming to your place of work, screaming in your ear that you are a blind duck*ing a**hole?

 

[Conndog]

On paper, SC is very deep (especially in the front court) while UConn is not. Foul troubles for SC will not slow them down while foul troubles for UConn will severely diminish the ability of UConn to stay in this game. I just don't see how against a team like SC that will crush the offensive boards, UConn does not get into foul trouble. As UConn had issue in rebounding against TN and SC is bigger and more athletic than TN, that does not bode well. I do think that UConn can hold SC on defense to about 70-75 points so the question is, can UConn score about 75 to 80 points against this SC. team. I guess, that is why they play the games...

That’s the big advantage of SC, their depth. UConn cannot get into foul trouble! I don’t know how to prevent it, because they need to be aggressive on rebounding yet that will lead to fouls being called. Maybe when Boston subs out for a rest, have Dorka out too and let Ayanna have some minutes. Just have to box out smartly and hope refs call SC for over the back fouls. I really like that Aubrey will be playing this year.

 

[Rowdy831]

General Summary:

Of course the conventional wisdom is that UConn will get blown out by the Gamecocks...after all they are a severely depleted team with as much fire power on the bench as is on the floor. That is to say without even mentioning that South Carolina is the number one team in the nation. The analysis must start out with, "Why is SC the number one team in the nation"? Well, one could say it starts and ends with Aliyah Boston...but, that would only be partially true. SC has a deep bench, a lot of bigs, Dawn plays 12 players pretty consistently. Her stars only average 24 minutes per game. Cook, Beal and Cooper may only have 6 assists between them but as a team they average 16.6 assists...which is why their bigs get the ball. Dawn has the luxury to go with a well-balanced guard / forward starting line-up to wear down the opposition, often times getting them in foul trouble and then sub in her bigs to torture opponents with a hard to defend big, long line-up with all kinds of match-up problems. They can go deep into the line-up without sacrificing much. They average 82 points per game but, defensively they get the job done. They do this by averaging 9.7 blocks per game...if our players try to drive the middle SC will have a "block party". When you put SC's ability to block shots, rebound the ball (50.9 per game) together with their ability to steal the basketball (8 per game) you can easily see why they hold their opponents to only 46 points per game.

Dawn has played the same starting line-up all season: Zia Cook- 5'9" guard; Aliyah Boston 6'5" forward; Brea Beal 6'1" guard; Victoria Saxton 6'2" forward; Kiera Fletcher 5'9". This line-up is a very experience, upperclassmen laden line-up (four seniors and a graduate student)...doesn't get much more experienced than that which probably accounts for why they only turn the ball over 13 times per game.

This analysis must be done from a starters perspective and from Dawn's big line-up perspective:

Aaliyah Edwards vs Victoria Saxton - While Victoria starts every game she only plays 15 minutes per game...she will be replaced by a bigger, stronger player....either Kamila Cardoso 6'7" or Laeticia Amihere 6'4"; or Sania Faegin 6'3" or Ashlyn Watkins 6'3"...I think you can see what I mean by a deep bench with bigs just waiting to come in and finished off a tired, foul laden opponent. Victoria averages 4.5 points and 3.2 rebounds and for 15 minutes that probably isn't bad...depending on who substitutes in for her will determine the overall point / rebounding impact at this position. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble...which I believe will be a very difficult task for her in this game and if Aaliyah can play at the same level she has been playing at then I would predict that this position will result in: ADVANTAGE - EVEN...however, if Aaliyah gets into foul trouble there is no one on the bench who can handle the bigs at this position.... ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Dorka Jurasz vs Aliyah Boston - I don't think that there is anyone on the planet who thinks that Aliyah Boston despite her averages of 12.7 points and 9.7 rebounds won't be up for this game and won't dominate the game. Dorka has been a God-send to UConn and I don't know where we would be without her. Her last outing against Providence was monstrous 19 points and 17 rebounds but that was against a Big East's bottom-feeder. This match-up will be otherworldly different. I think Dorka makes things difficult for Boston for a little while but, I think foul trouble will make Dorka's ability to stop the All American Boston almost impossible. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Aubrey Griffin vs Brea Beal - Brea Beal averages 23 minutes per game so it can be assumed that her substitution will be made in order to get a bigger player into the line-up which will make Aubrey have to work harder on defense. But, I believe Aubrey is a candidate for defensive player of the year and is capable assuming she stays out of foul trouble of holding her opponent's below their averages. I am not sure if Aubrey will be able to score against the starting line-up of South Carolina as they are sure to get back on defense and take away the run-outs of UConn and then you will have the bigs clogging up the middle waiting to kick-off their "block party". When the bigger line-up is in...I think that creates possibilities for Aubrey to get out and run the fast break... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Kiera Fletcher - This is another starter who only averages 15 minutes per game...which makes Dawn's substitution pattern more important as to how the advantage will play at this position. Hopefully, Lou can move freely without getting bumped on every cut and that she can find the space to get her 3 point shot off. I think despite Dawn's ability to play multiple players against Lou that Lou will find herself in this game. Lou loves to compete in the big games. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Zia Cook - Zia is Dawn's point guard and remember Dawn was a point guard herself. Zia is averaging a team high 15.8 points per game in just 24 minutes of play. She hits 2 three pointers per game. She is a shoot first guard only averaging 2.1 assists per game. Nika's pesty defense will hopefully keep Zia under her scoring averages and cut into her offensive contributions to the team. Nika's ability to distribute the basketball to her teammates will be crucial in this match-up. I hope Nika can stay out of foul trouble as we will need her to stay on the floor. If she stays on the floor... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - We go three deep with 8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game while South Carolina goes 12 deep with 39 points and 23 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Coaching - Geno and Dawn are both excellent coaches...Geno's coaching depth may be overall better but Dawn and her staff have more to work with... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles - Much of the intangibles have been discussed up in the general summary portion of this analysis but, what wasn't mentioned above is that this game is a home game for UConn...the friendly crowd will help some and may account for 5 points or so...but, as far as a game changer is concerned I would say no...the home court advantage will not both South Carolina all that much at least not as much as UConn's short bench and UConn's overworked mental and physical resilience. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina - 79
UConn - 68

MOV - 11

Very good. If Geno in fact tries to match up Boston with Dorka UCONN will have very little chance to win this game. I would put Edwards on Boston and make her work with a bruiser on her back. Dorka can defend a slighter person and her height should be an advantage. If they pressure Lou on defense Aubry and Nika will need to have a great scoring night.

UCONN has the talent to hang with SC but the defense and rebounding will be key. I think the type of players that SC has is a difficult matchup for UCONN and the depth is scary.

 

[Rowdy831]

UCONN has all very accomplished players. The talent gap is not that great but the size of Boston needs to be matched or she will just nudge her way to the basket. Dorka has no chance against Boston and if she works that hard on defense it will hurt her offense too which UCONN will need. The wild care to me is Lou. My take with her is if she is defended by someone with similar height she can be shut completely down. If that is the case I don't see where the offense will come from needed to beat South Carolina.

I would not expect to see any player in this game that didn't play in the last so UCONN will be super thin. They will need a huge game from someone on the bench. DeBerry would be best because of her size and ability to score but one of them will need to show up.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Very good. If Geno in fact tries to match up Boston with Dorka UCONN will have very little chance to win this game. I would put Edwards on Boston and make her work with a bruiser on her back. Dorka can defend a slighter person and her height should be an advantage. If they pressure Lou on defense Aubry and Nika will need to have a great scoring night.

UCONN has the talent to hang with SC but the defense and rebounding will be key. I think the type of players that SC has is a difficult matchup for UCONN and the depth is scary.

Edwards is too small to guard Boston. She gives up nearly half a foot in height.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

UCONN has all very accomplished players. The talent gap is not that great but the size of Boston needs to be matched or she will just nudge her way to the basket. Dorka has no chance against Boston and if she works that hard on defense it will hurt her offense too which UCONN will need. The wild care to me is Lou. My take with her is if she is defended by someone with similar height she can be shut completely down. If that is the case I don't see where the offense will come from needed to beat South Carolina.

I would not expect to see any player in this game that didn't play in the last so UCONN will be super thin. They will need a huge game from someone on the bench. DeBerry would be best because of her size and ability to score but one of them will need to show up.

Unless there’s fouls trouble I would expect all five starts to play 40 minutes. Or until it’s a blow out.

 

[HopJim]

General Summary:

Of course the conventional wisdom is that UConn will get blown out by the Gamecocks...after all they are a severely depleted team with as much fire power on the bench as is on the floor. That is to say without even mentioning that South Carolina is the number one team in the nation. The analysis must start out with, "Why is SC the number one team in the nation"? Well, one could say it starts and ends with Aliyah Boston...but, that would only be partially true. SC has a deep bench, a lot of bigs, Dawn plays 12 players pretty consistently. Her stars only average 24 minutes per game. Cook, Beal and Cooper may only have 6 assists between them but as a team they average 16.6 assists...which is why their bigs get the ball. Dawn has the luxury to go with a well-balanced guard / forward starting line-up to wear down the opposition, often times getting them in foul trouble and then sub in her bigs to torture opponents with a hard to defend big, long line-up with all kinds of match-up problems. They can go deep into the line-up without sacrificing much. They average 82 points per game but, defensively they get the job done. They do this by averaging 9.7 blocks per game...if our players try to drive the middle SC will have a "block party". When you put SC's ability to block shots, rebound the ball (50.9 per game) together with their ability to steal the basketball (8 per game) you can easily see why they hold their opponents to only 46 points per game.

Dawn has played the same starting line-up all season: Zia Cook- 5'9" guard; Aliyah Boston 6'5" forward; Brea Beal 6'1" guard; Victoria Saxton 6'2" forward; Kiera Fletcher 5'9". This line-up is a very experience, upperclassmen laden line-up (four seniors and a graduate student)...doesn't get much more experienced than that which probably accounts for why they only turn the ball over 13 times per game.

This analysis must be done from a starters perspective and from Dawn's big line-up perspective:

Aaliyah Edwards vs Victoria Saxton - While Victoria starts every game she only plays 15 minutes per game...she will be replaced by a bigger, stronger player....either Kamila Cardoso 6'7" or Laeticia Amihere 6'4"; or Sania Faegin 6'3" or Ashlyn Watkins 6'3"...I think you can see what I mean by a deep bench with bigs just waiting to come in and finished off a tired, foul laden opponent. Victoria averages 4.5 points and 3.2 rebounds and for 15 minutes that probably isn't bad...depending on who substitutes in for her will determine the overall point / rebounding impact at this position. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble...which I believe will be a very difficult task for her in this game and if Aaliyah can play at the same level she has been playing at then I would predict that this position will result in: ADVANTAGE - EVEN...however, if Aaliyah gets into foul trouble there is no one on the bench who can handle the bigs at this position.... ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Dorka Jurasz vs Aliyah Boston - I don't think that there is anyone on the planet who thinks that Aliyah Boston despite her averages of 12.7 points and 9.7 rebounds won't be up for this game and won't dominate the game. Dorka has been a God-send to UConn and I don't know where we would be without her. Her last outing against Providence was monstrous 19 points and 17 rebounds but that was against a Big East's bottom-feeder. This match-up will be otherworldly different. I think Dorka makes things difficult for Boston for a little while but, I think foul trouble will make Dorka's ability to stop the All American Boston almost impossible. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Aubrey Griffin vs Brea Beal - Brea Beal averages 23 minutes per game so it can be assumed that her substitution will be made in order to get a bigger player into the line-up which will make Aubrey have to work harder on defense. But, I believe Aubrey is a candidate for defensive player of the year and is capable assuming she stays out of foul trouble of holding her opponent's below their averages. I am not sure if Aubrey will be able to score against the starting line-up of South Carolina as they are sure to get back on defense and take away the run-outs of UConn and then you will have the bigs clogging up the middle waiting to kick-off their "block party". When the bigger line-up is in...I think that creates possibilities for Aubrey to get out and run the fast break... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Kiera Fletcher - This is another starter who only averages 15 minutes per game...which makes Dawn's substitution pattern more important as to how the advantage will play at this position. Hopefully, Lou can move freely without getting bumped on every cut and that she can find the space to get her 3 point shot off. I think despite Dawn's ability to play multiple players against Lou that Lou will find herself in this game. Lou loves to compete in the big games. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Zia Cook - Zia is Dawn's point guard and remember Dawn was a point guard herself. Zia is averaging a team high 15.8 points per game in just 24 minutes of play. She hits 2 three pointers per game. She is a shoot first guard only averaging 2.1 assists per game. Nika's pesty defense will hopefully keep Zia under her scoring averages and cut into her offensive contributions to the team. Nika's ability to distribute the basketball to her teammates will be crucial in this match-up. I hope Nika can stay out of foul trouble as we will need her to stay on the floor. If she stays on the floor... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - We go three deep with 8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game while South Carolina goes 12 deep with 39 points and 23 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Coaching - Geno and Dawn are both excellent coaches...Geno's coaching depth may be overall better but Dawn and her staff have more to work with... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles - Much of the intangibles have been discussed up in the general summary portion of this analysis but, what wasn't mentioned above is that this game is a home game for UConn...the friendly crowd will help some and may account for 5 points or so...but, as far as a game changer is concerned I would say no...the home court advantage will not both South Carolina all that much at least not as much as UConn's short bench and UConn's overworked mental and physical resilience. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina - 79
UConn - 68

MOV - 11

b

General Summary:

Of course the conventional wisdom is that UConn will get blown out by the Gamecocks...after all they are a severely depleted team with as much fire power on the bench as is on the floor. That is to say without even mentioning that South Carolina is the number one team in the nation. The analysis must start out with, "Why is SC the number one team in the nation"? Well, one could say it starts and ends with Aliyah Boston...but, that would only be partially true. SC has a deep bench, a lot of bigs, Dawn plays 12 players pretty consistently. Her stars only average 24 minutes per game. Cook, Beal and Cooper may only have 6 assists between them but as a team they average 16.6 assists...which is why their bigs get the ball. Dawn has the luxury to go with a well-balanced guard / forward starting line-up to wear down the opposition, often times getting them in foul trouble and then sub in her bigs to torture opponents with a hard to defend big, long line-up with all kinds of match-up problems. They can go deep into the line-up without sacrificing much. They average 82 points per game but, defensively they get the job done. They do this by averaging 9.7 blocks per game...if our players try to drive the middle SC will have a "block party". When you put SC's ability to block shots, rebound the ball (50.9 per game) together with their ability to steal the basketball (8 per game) you can easily see why they hold their opponents to only 46 points per game.

Dawn has played the same starting line-up all season: Zia Cook- 5'9" guard; Aliyah Boston 6'5" forward; Brea Beal 6'1" guard; Victoria Saxton 6'2" forward; Kiera Fletcher 5'9". This line-up is a very experience, upperclassmen laden line-up (four seniors and a graduate student)...doesn't get much more experienced than that which probably accounts for why they only turn the ball over 13 times per game.

This analysis must be done from a starters perspective and from Dawn's big line-up perspective:

Aaliyah Edwards vs Victoria Saxton - While Victoria starts every game she only plays 15 minutes per game...she will be replaced by a bigger, stronger player....either Kamila Cardoso 6'7" or Laeticia Amihere 6'4"; or Sania Faegin 6'3" or Ashlyn Watkins 6'3"...I think you can see what I mean by a deep bench with bigs just waiting to come in and finished off a tired, foul laden opponent. Victoria averages 4.5 points and 3.2 rebounds and for 15 minutes that probably isn't bad...depending on who substitutes in for her will determine the overall point / rebounding impact at this position. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble...which I believe will be a very difficult task for her in this game and if Aaliyah can play at the same level she has been playing at then I would predict that this position will result in: ADVANTAGE - EVEN...however, if Aaliyah gets into foul trouble there is no one on the bench who can handle the bigs at this position.... ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Dorka Jurasz vs Aliyah Boston - I don't think that there is anyone on the planet who thinks that Aliyah Boston despite her averages of 12.7 points and 9.7 rebounds won't be up for this game and won't dominate the game. Dorka has been a God-send to UConn and I don't know where we would be without her. Her last outing against Providence was monstrous 19 points and 17 rebounds but that was against a Big East's bottom-feeder. This match-up will be otherworldly different. I think Dorka makes things difficult for Boston for a little while but, I think foul trouble will make Dorka's ability to stop the All American Boston almost impossible. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Aubrey Griffin vs Brea Beal - Brea Beal averages 23 minutes per game so it can be assumed that her substitution will be made in order to get a bigger player into the line-up which will make Aubrey have to work harder on defense. But, I believe Aubrey is a candidate for defensive player of the year and is capable assuming she stays out of foul trouble of holding her opponent's below their averages. I am not sure if Aubrey will be able to score against the starting line-up of South Carolina as they are sure to get back on defense and take away the run-outs of UConn and then you will have the bigs clogging up the middle waiting to kick-off their "block party". When the bigger line-up is in...I think that creates possibilities for Aubrey to get out and run the fast break... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Kiera Fletcher - This is another starter who only averages 15 minutes per game...which makes Dawn's substitution pattern more important as to how the advantage will play at this position. Hopefully, Lou can move freely without getting bumped on every cut and that she can find the space to get her 3 point shot off. I think despite Dawn's ability to play multiple players against Lou that Lou will find herself in this game. Lou loves to compete in the big games. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Zia Cook - Zia is Dawn's point guard and remember Dawn was a point guard herself. Zia is averaging a team high 15.8 points per game in just 24 minutes of play. She hits 2 three pointers per game. She is a shoot first guard only averaging 2.1 assists per game. Nika's pesty defense will hopefully keep Zia under her scoring averages and cut into her offensive contributions to the team. Nika's ability to distribute the basketball to her teammates will be crucial in this match-up. I hope Nika can stay out of foul trouble as we will need her to stay on the floor. If she stays on the floor... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - We go three deep with 8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game while South Carolina goes 12 deep with 39 points and 23 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Coaching - Geno and Dawn are both excellent coaches...Geno's coaching depth may be overall better but Dawn and her staff have more to work with... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles - Much of the intangibles have been discussed up in the general summary portion of this analysis but, what wasn't mentioned above is that this game is a home game for UConn...the friendly crowd will help some and may account for 5 points or so...but, as far as a game changer is concerned I would say no...the home court advantage will not both South Carolina all that much at least not as much as UConn's short bench and UConn's overworked mental and physical resilience. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina - 79
UConn - 68

MOV - 11

Doubtful Dorka gets the assignment to guard Boston unless Edwards gets into foul trouble. Other than that, good assessment.

 

[HopJim]

UConn's only chance of winning this game will be if Lou gets her shooting touch back big time, Dorka hits from three multiple times, Aubrey gets the Carolina bigs in foul trouble driving the lane and South Carolina has a really off-shooting game.........what are the odds of all those things happening?

Unlikely but possible. Agree that UConn will need all 4, but you never know. Last year, UConn competed well in the 1st quarter then got pounded on the boards. If Huskies can make the game about speed and jump shooting, they have a chance.

 

[HopJim]

that's true but being the likely number one WNBA draft choice makes it more unlikely.........perhaps it will depend if South Carolina wins the NC this season.....

She's gone. Why would Boston turn down the money and risk getting hurt? Another championship would mean little in the big picture.