Game Analysis - UConn vs South Carolina

[Longtime fan]

I watched the SC vs Stanford game and noticed a few things. When Boston got into some foul trouble and had to sit down, the rest of the team went through one of those phases where no one wanted to take a shot. Boston returned and so did their offense but I was not impressed with the support. I did notice that in the 4th quarter, with the score almost even, that the SC players started knocking the Stanford players on their butts. Should have been fouls called but SC was getting some help. At a pivotal point, Staley came storming onto the court, hollering about a call. She should have been T'd, and that would have been critical. She's a great coach but Geno does not lose control like that in a big game.

I think a key to this game is how the refs are going to call the rough stuff, and how the players maintain their poise. I like our chances.

Stanford is about three levels better than UCONN at this point. So, they had a lot to do with any scoring slowdown by SC. Either of those teams has a single starter missing...meanwhile, we are down Paige, Ice Brady, Azzi, and Caroline. Just incomprehensible.

 

[Charliebball]

UConn's only chance of winning this game will be if Lou gets her shooting touch back big time, Dorka hits from three multiple times, Aubrey gets the Carolina bigs in foul trouble driving the lane and South Carolina has a really off-shooting game.........what are the odds of all those things happening?

 

[Zinethar]

I think you all are forgetting the real key that will result in a UConn win! Of course it is the Nike ball !

 

[housekeys]

It should happen again, but it probably won't. Dorka will make a bigger difference than most people think. AG and AE will also be focused on this clear discrepancy from last year's game. The home crowd, the adrenaline, will make a difference also. This game will be different than last year's game. Not sure if the result will be. South Carolina is the best team, taking account UConn's injuries. UConn is not a bad team either.

 

[housekeys]

UConn's only chance of winning this game will be if Lou gets her shooting touch back big time, Dorka hits from three multiple times, Aubrey gets the Carolina bigs in foul trouble driving the lane and South Carolina has a really off-shooting game.........what are the odds of all those things happening?

Odds are not good. I would not forfeit though. Maybe your analysis of how good they are, and how bad we are, is off?

 

[Ozimoto]

On paper, SC is too big, too deep, too long, and too quick for the Huskies. It will be a "home" game for UConn and the five core players have shown a lot of grit and a "refuse to lose" attitude. Will it be enough to pull the upset? My heart says yes, but the logical engineer in me says no. The kids will fight as hard as they can, but I think they come up short on this one by about 15 points.

 

[housekeys]

TEAM	CONF	GB	OVR
LSU	9-0	-	21-0
South Carolina	9-0	-	21-0
Tennessee	8-1	1	16-8
Ole Miss	7-2	2	18-4
Alabama	5-4	4	16-6

BTW, South Carolina has yet to play, LSU, Tennessee, or Mississippi. They recently beat Alabama away 65-52. They played 3 ranked teams out of conference, Maryland, UCLA and Stanford. Except for Maryland, the other two ranked out of conference games were close. Stanford, they had to go to over-time.

 

[Mdoggie]

 

[DrummerDee]

Remember y'all. We'll be playing with those Nike balls...advantage: UCONN.

 

[Charliebball]

Odds are not good. I would not forfeit though. Maybe your analysis of how good they are, and how bad we are, is off?

South Carolina's offense sometimes fails them but unfortunately, their defense and rebounding rarely do..........if UConn was at full strength with multiple three-point shooters their chances would be far greater..........I'm just hoping they hang in there and make a game of it without any further injuries.........I rarely predict a UConn loss but under the current circumstances, the odds of winning simply are not that great........were they to win this game, I would consider it one of their greatest victories in the past few years and nothing would make me happier.......

 

[tchalla1]

i agree with you--the mindset is different this year; in previous years, the mindset was, well let's just say tentative. This will help us, plus, SC is not a good shooting team, they have a stagnant offense--we have to make our shots early...

 

[jonack]

I think the formula for SC is simple: play half court game; dominant the paint / boards; stop Lou…UConn will not be able to get the ball into paint…Will not control the boards…must shoot and/ hit from the outside.,, really only one shooter…SC will smother UConn…SC by 15 or more…This would be a tough game for UConn even if everyone were healthy…. because SC will dominate the paint, so you better hit those outside shots…. I’ve been following UConn women since Stewie’s first year…Haven’t missed a game since… Love Geno and boneyard… I would love to see Geno get a talented graduate big from portal… With our guards and forwards healthy, add another big ( Boston is gone!), and we are in: championship! Not this year, unfortunately….

 

[Jokerman619]

When did Dawn Staley reach "a coaching legend?" Only in the mind of SC fans and ESPN, and Carolyn Peck.

Agree.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei! Good analysis.

A few observations:

1. I don’t expect a “physical” game, in the sense of a lot of cheap shots on cuts and the like. That’s what weaker teams do to get an advantage. SC doesn’t need to stoop to that to win.

2. Instead of “physical” the salient feature of SC’s game is quickness. They are long and hard to get around because they move their feet really well. Lots of the cream puffs they’ve played this year just didn’t have the foot speed that smaller players try to exploit against bigger teams.

3. If they outrebound us, it won’t be because they’ve outmuscled us. It will be because they’ve beaten us to the better position.

4. Dawn plays a deep rotation and the starters average ~24 mins — but against us I expect they’ll play a bit more mins. We’ve got good quickness, too. That’s how we scored 33 in the 1st quarter against Tennessee. So we’ll present different challenges than SC is used to.

5. Cooke is a shooting guard, not a point guard. Does Nika cover her or fletcher? Or whoever plays point? Aubrey will spend some time guarding larger players. But who will defend her? Beal will probably assigned to Lou which means a lot of pressure on Nika and Aubrey to bring some offense.

 

[MD#12Fan]

I am guessing that Dawn has watched some film of this season Husky games and will lean towards the same defensive plan - see how much physicality that they can get away with, especially on Lou, Dorka and Aaliyah, in that order. And they have the bench strength to get away with a ton of physicality...

And I don't really want to compare the NC game with this game because we are a completely different team. We had Paige, Azzi and Caroline available last April. We won't have them on Sunday. But we do have Lou, Aubrey and Dorka this Sunday, so...

You forgot point, in which UConn has an advantage. Nika quietly is becoming a star. A game of this magnitude could define her. She can pressure the ball, get some steals, push the ball in transition, AND hit some shots. Advantage UConn. Nobody mentions that SC doesn't have Destiny Henderson anymore. It's gunna get them. Let's hope it happens Sunday.

 

[CL82]

I think you all are forgetting the real key that will result in a UConn win! Of course it is the Nike ball !

Shhh, it’s a secret.

(lol, The Boneyard never forgets.)

 

[MD#12Fan]

Before all the injuries, I felt strongly that UConn had a distinct advantage in the backcourt over SC, with enough depth in the frontcourt to hang in there against SC’s towering frontcourt. That combination would have given UConn the very real possibility of upsetting SC.

As it stands now, the possibility of a UConn win is remote at best. I’m hoping the Huskies hang in there and maybe get a 2nd chance in the Big Dance with Caroline & Azzi back in the lineup.

As for SC, they have one of the simplest and most effective game plans in WBB. Play tough defense, get shots up on offense and crash the boards in waves. It’s not very sophisticated, but it’s almost impossible to defeat given the size and depth of SC’s roster.

I keep saying on different threads, that pressure out front, denying the wings, and fronting the posts combats the size advantage. Everything the offensive team does has to move further from the basket. All sports are games of angles. The angles flatten the further you are from the hoop and vice versa the angles are sharper the closer you are to the hoop.
It's your basic Coach K defense. We have the talent to do it. Nika's grit on top and a whole heck of a lot of versatility elsewhere. We can switch and hedge on all screens, even trap out of it. Put them on their heels.

 

[fomalhaut]

As for SC, they have one of the simplest and most effective game plans in WBB. Play tough defense, get shots up on offense and crash the boards in waves. It’s not very sophisticated, but it’s almost impossible to defeat given the size and depth of SC’s roster.

Not only unsophisticated, but dull as dishwater. I watch Connecticut for artistry; no other NCAA school in the last 20+ years can match that. I saw a bit of the South Carolina-Stanford game and found it stultifying.

 

[Charliebball]

Agree.

we'll see what kind of legend she is when Boston is gone next season........

 

[DEpup]

I

I am guessing that Dawn has watched some film of this season Husky games and will lean towards the same defensive plan - see how much physicality that they can get away with, especially on Lou, Dorka and Aaliyah, in that order. And they have the bench strength to get away with a ton of physicality...

And I don't really want to compare the NC game with this game because we are a completely different team. We had Paige, Azzi and Caroline available last April. We won't have them on Sunday. But we do have Lou, Aubrey and Dorka this Sunday, so...

I would point out that Azzi was sick puking her guts out from a stomach bug and had to have fluids before the NC game last year so not sure we could count her as "available" although she was out there giving it the college try.

 

[cgshuskie]

Nika must play and stop Zia Cooke. Lou can play the point guards, Raven and/or Fletcher. What will we do with Beal playing Lou? How do we get her open. Also, we must hold out own on the boards. Bring Amari in when Cardoso comes in. Amari and Dorka have the game of their lives in front of them. My greatest concern is that we don't have enough outside shooting to neutralize SC's board and paint power. However, time will tell. A good test for the ladies. Go Huskies

 

[housekeys]

South Carolina's offense sometimes fails them but unfortunately, their defense and rebounding rarely do

This, I agree with you. Their defense is excellent and will cause major problems for UConn. I am not feeling like UConn is going to win, either. But I would not go as far as to say "I hope UConn" this or that. UConn will give them a game. They may come up short, but it will require South Carolina play well. Anything less and South Carolina will lose. IMHO.

 

[cgshuskie]

Watch out for Aubrey's improved outside shooting! A Griffin family power!

 

[ConwayGmck]

General Summary:

Of course the conventional wisdom is that UConn will get blown out by the Gamecocks...after all they are a severely depleted team with as much fire power on the bench as is on the floor. That is to say without even mentioning that South Carolina is the number one team in the nation. The analysis must start out with, "Why is SC the number one team in the nation"? Well, one could say it starts and ends with Aliyah Boston...but, that would only be partially true. SC has a deep bench, a lot of bigs, Dawn plays 12 players pretty consistently. Her stars only average 24 minutes per game. Cook, Beal and Cooper may only have 6 assists between them but as a team they average 16.6 assists...which is why their bigs get the ball. Dawn has the luxury to go with a well-balanced guard / forward starting line-up to wear down the opposition, often times getting them in foul trouble and then sub in her bigs to torture opponents with a hard to defend big, long line-up with all kinds of match-up problems. They can go deep into the line-up without sacrificing much. They average 82 points per game but, defensively they get the job done. They do this by averaging 9.7 blocks per game...if our players try to drive the middle SC will have a "block party". When you put SC's ability to block shots, rebound the ball (50.9 per game) together with their ability to steal the basketball (8 per game) you can easily see why they hold their opponents to only 46 points per game.

Dawn has played the same starting line-up all season: Zia Cook- 5'9" guard; Aliyah Boston 6'5" forward; Brea Beal 6'1" guard; Victoria Saxton 6'2" forward; Kiera Fletcher 5'9". This line-up is a very experience, upperclassmen laden line-up (four seniors and a graduate student)...doesn't get much more experienced than that which probably accounts for why they only turn the ball over 13 times per game.

This analysis must be done from a starters perspective and from Dawn's big line-up perspective:

Aaliyah Edwards vs Victoria Saxton - While Victoria starts every game she only plays 15 minutes per game...she will be replaced by a bigger, stronger player....either Kamila Cardoso 6'7" or Laeticia Amihere 6'4"; or Sania Faegin 6'3" or Ashlyn Watkins 6'3"...I think you can see what I mean by a deep bench with bigs just waiting to come in and finished off a tired, foul laden opponent. Victoria averages 4.5 points and 3.2 rebounds and for 15 minutes that probably isn't bad...depending on who substitutes in for her will determine the overall point / rebounding impact at this position. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble...which I believe will be a very difficult task for her in this game and if Aaliyah can play at the same level she has been playing at then I would predict that this position will result in: ADVANTAGE - EVEN...however, if Aaliyah gets into foul trouble there is no one on the bench who can handle the bigs at this position.... ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Dorka Jurasz vs Aliyah Boston - I don't think that there is anyone on the planet who thinks that Aliyah Boston despite her averages of 12.7 points and 9.7 rebounds won't be up for this game and won't dominate the game. Dorka has been a God-send to UConn and I don't know where we would be without her. Her last outing against Providence was monstrous 19 points and 17 rebounds but that was against a Big East's bottom-feeder. This match-up will be otherworldly different. I think Dorka makes things difficult for Boston for a little while but, I think foul trouble will make Dorka's ability to stop the All American Boston almost impossible. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Aubrey Griffin vs Brea Beal - Brea Beal averages 23 minutes per game so it can be assumed that her substitution will be made in order to get a bigger player into the line-up which will make Aubrey have to work harder on defense. But, I believe Aubrey is a candidate for defensive player of the year and is capable assuming she stays out of foul trouble of holding her opponent's below their averages. I am not sure if Aubrey will be able to score against the starting line-up of South Carolina as they are sure to get back on defense and take away the run-outs of UConn and then you will have the bigs clogging up the middle waiting to kick-off their "block party". When the bigger line-up is in...I think that creates possibilities for Aubrey to get out and run the fast break... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Kiera Fletcher - This is another starter who only averages 15 minutes per game...which makes Dawn's substitution pattern more important as to how the advantage will play at this position. Hopefully, Lou can move freely without getting bumped on every cut and that she can find the space to get her 3 point shot off. I think despite Dawn's ability to play multiple players against Lou that Lou will find herself in this game. Lou loves to compete in the big games. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Zia Cook - Zia is Dawn's point guard and remember Dawn was a point guard herself. Zia is averaging a team high 15.8 points per game in just 24 minutes of play. She hits 2 three pointers per game. She is a shoot first guard only averaging 2.1 assists per game. Nika's pesty defense will hopefully keep Zia under her scoring averages and cut into her offensive contributions to the team. Nika's ability to distribute the basketball to her teammates will be crucial in this match-up. I hope Nika can stay out of foul trouble as we will need her to stay on the floor. If she stays on the floor... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - We go three deep with 8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game while South Carolina goes 12 deep with 39 points and 23 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Coaching - Geno and Dawn are both excellent coaches...Geno's coaching depth may be overall better but Dawn and her staff have more to work with... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles - Much of the intangibles have been discussed up in the general summary portion of this analysis but, what wasn't mentioned above is that this game is a home game for UConn...the friendly crowd will help some and may account for 5 points or so...but, as far as a game changer is concerned I would say no...the home court advantage will not both South Carolina all that much at least not as much as UConn's short bench and UConn's overworked mental and physical resilience. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina - 79
UConn - 68

MOV - 11

Great analysis. I do have questions regarding your player comparisons: Muhl vs Cooke? I think most agree that Muhl IS CT's PG - she was after all slotted in to replace Bueckers, who is CT's PG1. Muhl leads the Huskies in apg, and typically has the ball in her hands when the game starts.

So why choose Zia? None of those apply to her. Zia is the SG1 for the Gamecocks. USC's PG1 and 2 are Keirra Fletcher and Raven Johnson. They have platooned from the very start of the season, with one or the other earning the starter's role based on how they played over the other. Initially Fletcher's upperclass experience earned her the starts, and she's started 19 of the 21 games they've played. Johnson however has been earning more mpg with every game, and is averaging slightly more now than Fletcher. She's almost to the point of winning the starting job.

Fletcher and Johnson have accounted for around 80% of the PG duties this season, with each getting around 40% each. The other 20% or so have gone to Cooke, Amihere, and Beal. They have only rarely been moved to a non-PG position in games, and when that has happened, it was when BOTH were in the game at the same time - mostly to give Cooke a spell. But that's only been rare.

Fletcher has shown that mature experience in handling the ball and getting the starting unit moving forward offensively to start games, and to start 2nd halves. She hasn't led the team in assists, but has a decent 38 assists to 21 turnovers, averaging 4.2 ppg and 3.7 rpg. She shoots 72% from the foul line and 40% from the field, but is NOT a 3-pt. shooter AT ALL. Raven is currently leading the team in apg (3.3) and spg (1.3) - she averages 3.6 ppg and 2.6 rpg for the season, but in 9 SEC gms that has improved to 5.0 ppg and 3.0 rpg. Johnson has 66 assists to only 27 TOs, good for a 2.4:1 A:TO ratio - since SEC play began, she's collected 30 assists to 13 turnovers. Johnson had a horrific time during the OOC schedule with her shooting, but is now shooting 50% from the field in SEC play, and 33% from the 3-pt. line.

Combined, that makes the PG position of Fletcher and Johnson averaging 7.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.0 apg with a 2.2 A:TO, and 2.0 spg. Cooke is actually 3rd on the team in assists overall, and since conference play began, is 5th against conf. opponents in assists. Beal is actually the top player after Fletcher and Johnson in this category: she has 50 assists to only 18 turnovers. In SEC play she has 23 assists to only 9 turnovers.

I would compare Muhl to Fletcher, with the understanding that Fletcher's PG role is to rotate with Johnson, not just for foul trouble, breather breaks, etc. I think Bettencourt mostly subs in for Muhl, doesn't she? Lopez Senechal has 26 assists and 26 turnovers in conference play....she is NOT CT's PG1.

But she is the more offensive-minded guard for the Huskies, similar to Cooke. I would compare those two players against each other....