General Summary:
Of course the conventional wisdom is that UConn will get blown out by the Gamecocks...after all they are a severely depleted team with as much fire power on the bench as is on the floor. That is to say without even mentioning that South Carolina is the number one team in the nation. The analysis must start out with, "Why is SC the number one team in the nation"? Well, one could say it starts and ends with Aliyah Boston...but, that would only be partially true. SC has a deep bench, a lot of bigs, Dawn plays 12 players pretty consistently. Her stars only average 24 minutes per game. Cook, Beal and Cooper may only have 6 assists between them but as a team they average 16.6 assists...which is why their bigs get the ball. Dawn has the luxury to go with a well-balanced guard / forward starting line-up to wear down the opposition, often times getting them in foul trouble and then sub in her bigs to torture opponents with a hard to defend big, long line-up with all kinds of match-up problems. They can go deep into the line-up without sacrificing much. They average 82 points per game but, defensively they get the job done. They do this by averaging 9.7 blocks per game...if our players try to drive the middle SC will have a "block party". When you put SC's ability to block shots, rebound the ball (50.9 per game) together with their ability to steal the basketball (8 per game) you can easily see why they hold their opponents to only 46 points per game.
Dawn has played the same starting line-up all season: Zia Cook- 5'9" guard; Aliyah Boston 6'5" forward; Brea Beal 6'1" guard; Victoria Saxton 6'2" forward; Kiera Fletcher 5'9". This line-up is a very experience, upperclassmen laden line-up (four seniors and a graduate student)...doesn't get much more experienced than that which probably accounts for why they only turn the ball over 13 times per game.
This analysis must be done from a starters perspective and from Dawn's big line-up perspective:
Aaliyah Edwards vs Victoria Saxton - While Victoria starts every game she only plays 15 minutes per game...she will be replaced by a bigger, stronger player....either Kamila Cardoso 6'7" or Laeticia Amihere 6'4"; or Sania Faegin 6'3" or Ashlyn Watkins 6'3"...I think you can see what I mean by a deep bench with bigs just waiting to come in and finished off a tired, foul laden opponent. Victoria averages 4.5 points and 3.2 rebounds and for 15 minutes that probably isn't bad...depending on who substitutes in for her will determine the overall point / rebounding impact at this position. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble...which I believe will be a very difficult task for her in this game and if Aaliyah can play at the same level she has been playing at then I would predict that this position will result in: ADVANTAGE - EVEN...however, if Aaliyah gets into foul trouble there is no one on the bench who can handle the bigs at this position.... ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA
Dorka Jurasz vs Aliyah Boston - I don't think that there is anyone on the planet who thinks that Aliyah Boston despite her averages of 12.7 points and 9.7 rebounds won't be up for this game and won't dominate the game. Dorka has been a God-send to UConn and I don't know where we would be without her. Her last outing against Providence was monstrous 19 points and 17 rebounds but that was against a Big East's bottom-feeder. This match-up will be otherworldly different. I think Dorka makes things difficult for Boston for a little while but, I think foul trouble will make Dorka's ability to stop the All American Boston almost impossible. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA
Aubrey Griffin vs Brea Beal - Brea Beal averages 23 minutes per game so it can be assumed that her substitution will be made in order to get a bigger player into the line-up which will make Aubrey have to work harder on defense. But, I believe Aubrey is a candidate for defensive player of the year and is capable assuming she stays out of foul trouble of holding her opponent's below their averages. I am not sure if Aubrey will be able to score against the starting line-up of South Carolina as they are sure to get back on defense and take away the run-outs of UConn and then you will have the bigs clogging up the middle waiting to kick-off their "block party". When the bigger line-up is in...I think that creates possibilities for Aubrey to get out and run the fast break... ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Kiera Fletcher - This is another starter who only averages 15 minutes per game...which makes Dawn's substitution pattern more important as to how the advantage will play at this position. Hopefully, Lou can move freely without getting bumped on every cut and that she can find the space to get her 3 point shot off. I think despite Dawn's ability to play multiple players against Lou that Lou will find herself in this game. Lou loves to compete in the big games. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Nika Muhl vs Zia Cook - Zia is Dawn's point guard and remember Dawn was a point guard herself. Zia is averaging a team high 15.8 points per game in just 24 minutes of play. She hits 2 three pointers per game. She is a shoot first guard only averaging 2.1 assists per game. Nika's pesty defense will hopefully keep Zia under her scoring averages and cut into her offensive contributions to the team. Nika's ability to distribute the basketball to her teammates will be crucial in this match-up. I hope Nika can stay out of foul trouble as we will need her to stay on the floor. If she stays on the floor... ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Bench - We go three deep with 8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game while South Carolina goes 12 deep with 39 points and 23 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA
Coaching - Geno and Dawn are both excellent coaches...Geno's coaching depth may be overall better but Dawn and her staff have more to work with... ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Intangibles - Much of the intangibles have been discussed up in the general summary portion of this analysis but, what wasn't mentioned above is that this game is a home game for UConn...the friendly crowd will help some and may account for 5 points or so...but, as far as a game changer is concerned I would say no...the home court advantage will not both South Carolina all that much at least not as much as UConn's short bench and UConn's overworked mental and physical resilience. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina - 79
UConn - 68
MOV - 11
Great analysis. I do have questions regarding your player comparisons: Muhl vs Cooke? I think most agree that Muhl IS CT's PG - she was after all slotted in to replace Bueckers, who is CT's PG1. Muhl leads the Huskies in apg, and typically has the ball in her hands when the game starts.
So why choose Zia? None of those apply to her. Zia is the SG1 for the Gamecocks. USC's PG1 and 2 are Keirra Fletcher and Raven Johnson. They have platooned from the very start of the season, with one or the other earning the starter's role based on how they played over the other. Initially Fletcher's upperclass experience earned her the starts, and she's started 19 of the 21 games they've played. Johnson however has been earning more mpg with every game, and is averaging slightly more now than Fletcher. She's almost to the point of winning the starting job.
Fletcher and Johnson have accounted for around 80% of the PG duties this season, with each getting around 40% each. The other 20% or so have gone to Cooke, Amihere, and Beal. They have only rarely been moved to a non-PG position in games, and when that has happened, it was when BOTH were in the game at the same time - mostly to give Cooke a spell. But that's only been rare.
Fletcher has shown that mature experience in handling the ball and getting the starting unit moving forward offensively to start games, and to start 2nd halves. She hasn't led the team in assists, but has a decent 38 assists to 21 turnovers, averaging 4.2 ppg and 3.7 rpg. She shoots 72% from the foul line and 40% from the field, but is NOT a 3-pt. shooter AT ALL. Raven is currently leading the team in apg (3.3) and spg (1.3) - she averages 3.6 ppg and 2.6 rpg for the season, but in 9 SEC gms that has improved to 5.0 ppg and 3.0 rpg. Johnson has 66 assists to only 27 TOs, good for a 2.4:1 A:TO ratio - since SEC play began, she's collected 30 assists to 13 turnovers. Johnson had a horrific time during the OOC schedule with her shooting, but is now shooting 50% from the field in SEC play, and 33% from the 3-pt. line.
Combined, that makes the PG position of Fletcher and Johnson averaging 7.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.0 apg with a 2.2 A:TO, and 2.0 spg. Cooke is actually 3rd on the team in assists overall, and since conference play began, is 5th against conf. opponents in assists. Beal is actually the top player after Fletcher and Johnson in this category: she has 50 assists to only 18 turnovers. In SEC play she has 23 assists to only 9 turnovers.
I would compare Muhl to Fletcher, with the understanding that Fletcher's PG role is to rotate with Johnson, not just for foul trouble, breather breaks, etc. I think Bettencourt mostly subs in for Muhl, doesn't she? Lopez Senechal has 26 assists and 26 turnovers in conference play....she is NOT CT's PG1.
But she is the more offensive-minded guard for the Huskies, similar to Cooke. I would compare those two players against each other....
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