editor of FSU board on FSU to Big 12

[RS9999X]

The difference between the ACC contract and the rewrite with SU and Pitt during the first 12 years (assuming a 6% escalator)
Year 1 1.8 - mil
2 1.9 - mil
3 2.0 - mil
4 2.1 - mil
5 2.2 - mil
6 2.3 - mil
7 2.5 - mil
8 2.6 - mil
9 2.8 - mil
10 3.0 - mil
11 3.1 - mil
12 3.3 - mil
The real money is in years 13, 14 and 15. The extension assumes media rights will double in 12 years from 11 mil in year 1 to 22 mil after year 12

13 22.13 - mil
14 23.46 - mil
15 24.87 - mil

 

[RS9999X]

The FSU President is vulnerable. He's begging the Boosters to cover shortfalls and fund projects. The
Boosters appear to be on board with a move from the ACC.

 

[Dann]

new cbs article

by monday the acc will be crisp

 

[WallStreetHusky]

Why did the ACC add Miami? They were just another team in Florida, right?

Just a quick observation about Observer....fear has rolled into ACCville a ways ahead of schedule. The barbarians may not be at the gates, but the realization that there be barbarians and that they be coming for the gates one of these days has dawned on him.

But if he squeezes his eyes closed really, really tightly and just ignores those bad men at the gate, maybe they will go away.......he is going to be toes up still clutching the presidents statement about how they need to stay for the academics....

 

[junglehusky]

The FSU fans are pissed. The home schedule next year has 5 games against non-football powers:
They are insulted and think attendance will take a hit again next year.

Murray State
Savannah State
Wake
BC
Duke
------------------------
Clemson
Florida

Spetman said sagging ticket sales in football is a key piece of the shortfall. The budget projects a drop of $550,000 in ticket sales compared to 2011-2012.

The average crowds of 66,293 for Samford, Brigham Young and Wake Forest in 2010 are 15 percent lower than the crowds for the first three home games of the 2009 season (Miami, Jacksonville State and South Florida), and the announced 61,674 tickets distributed for the 2010 Wake Forest game was the lowest in nearly 18 years, going back to a 1992 game against Tulane.

Total attendance has decreased every year since 2008, the last of eight consecutive years in which FSU averaged 80,000 or more for home games. Now, FSU has gone five consecutive home games without drawing as many as 70,000, dating to last year.

Well the conference home schedule is a league issue, I do remember some ink being spilled on the matter. So I can see the fanbase being pissed about that. But the nonconference patsies... I feel no pity for the program, that's the doing of the (previous) coach and AD. Aside from the scheduling issues (though it's related), as far as the attendance / interest problems, you have to look at the coach and athletic director as being on the hook for that. Would FSU fans be more excited to play Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech? I don't know...

 

[The Funster]

I'm going to wait and see. On the one hand, FSU does appear to get a regular screwing from the ACC schedule makers. The boosters and fans have a good reason to be pissed about it, too. On the other hand, you have the chairman of the BOT, who may be on the way out, perhaps capitalizing on the disgruntleness for his own well being.

I have been critical of Swofford from the beginning of this recent realignmnet merry go round. While others were calling him a visionary for poaching Pitt and Cuse, I've been far less complimentary. Moving for Pitt and Syracuse was a mistake. They have football pasts when the ACC needed programs with football futures. He made safe moves, negotiated a safe TV deal and reopened that TV and made it even safer.

He's not a bad commisioner but he is no where near visionary or "ahead of the curve". He's also doing his job which is to serve Tobacco Road.

FSU could go. It would be a panic move but they could go. Clemson might too. However, I don't see NCSt or Vtech going. I don't think their legislators ever allowing that.

I'd also be leery of UConn moving to the ACC under Swofford's leadership. The ACC is a better spot than the BE now but there may be a better opportunity later. What that is, I don't yet but the ACC under Swoffords good old boy network is kind of like going to the classic safety school.

 

[WhaleEER]

Savannah State is the replacement gave for WVU backing out of the game @FSU.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If FSU and Clemson leave, every schools is going to try to get out. Several are already trying.

I think the TV contract was so far below market because ESPN and the ACC knew they were losing schools.

 

[observer]

But if he squeezes his eyes closed really, really tightly and just ignores those bad men at the gate, maybe they will go away.......he is going to be toes up still clutching the presidents statement about how they need to stay for the academics....

FSU may or may not leave the ACC; just as any school may or may not leave a conference. What my posts have been primarily directed at is the idea that schools will just jump willy nilly from one conference to another whenever a few more dollars are available. There is more to it than that.

Reasons for FSU to leave are basically more money in the current TV contract.

Reasons for FSU to stay in the ACC: cost of ACC withdrawal fee (20 million); additional costs of travel in Big 12 (have seen estimates of 2-3 million per year); having to give up playing either Miami (unless Miami also goes to the Big 12) or Florida because Big 12 has 9 conference games and if FSU played both would have room for only one patsy per year; hardship on athletes and their academics due to longer travel for conference games; hardship on fans as far as travelling to Big 12 away games as opposed to ACC games; academics (of course, only a factor in my simplistic analysis...FSU is really a football team with a University attached to it so who other than a few misguided souls gives a hoot about academics); easier path to BCS championship/playoff thru ACC than Big 12

A wash; being Texas' b*tch or that of Tobacco Road. Probably better in the ACC because despite the issues about this to date no ACC teams have left the ACC while Texas managed to drive away a good chunk of the Big 12 in the last two years. Devil you know as opposed to the one you don't.

Now I do not have any high level sources, imagined or otherwise, just what i think are common sense arguments. Can people conjure up the death of the ACC? Sure and maybe the Mayans are right and none of this will really matter.

 

[Dann]

FSU may or may not leave the ACC; just as any school may or may not leave a conference. What my posts have been primarily directed at is the idea that schools will just jump willy nilly from one conference to another whenever a few more dollars are available. There is more to it than that.

Reasons for FSU to leave are basically more money in the current TV contract. they get to create there own eastern division to play every year, thats miles ahead of play duke and wake ever year.

Reasons for FSU to stay in the ACC: cost of ACC withdrawal fee (20 million); the b12 will ront 10 o that 20. additional costs of travel in Big 12 (have seen estimates of 2-3 million per year)they would be in a division with wvu/clem/gt/lville/tcu/miami for example, thats not a travel issue at all. also the b12 has in place travel $$ makeups where a school like wvu will get an extra amount or travel costs to texas if things stay as there are right now. anything rumor wise you see on travel is bs.; having to give up playing either Miami (unless Miami also goes to the Big 12) or Florida because Big 12 has 9 conference games and if FSU played both would have room for only one patsy per year both would be easy to keep on the schedule, miami in division and florida as there big ooc game; hardship on athletes and their academics due to longer travel for conference games not an issue with a eastern division fsu gets to mold, your reaching for thoughts to why not...; hardship on fans as far as travelling to Big 12 away games as opposed to ACC games same as last comment; academics (of course, only a factor in my simplistic analysis...FSU is really a football team with a University attached to it so who other than a few misguided souls gives a hoot about academics)if the acc is torn apart, what academics? b12 isn't bad btw, it has some aau schools, its not like its cusa; easier path to BCS championship/playoff thru ACC than Big 12 b12 is harder, but that also gets you a bid or sure, winning the acc doesn't mean you would get a bid if bama/tex/usc/tosu all won there conf's. can't get left out like that, major butthurt then. making your own division as su would they would have a good looking path to play ok/tex most years in the ccg(the way they view it).

A wash; being Texas' b*tch or that of Tobacco Road.texas makes more $$ and atleast cares about fball, bacco road cares about bball, thats a different in bitch*s Probably better in the ACC because despite the issues about this to date no ACC teams have left the ACC while Texas managed to drive away a good chunk of the Big 12 in the last two years. Devil you know as opposed to the one you don't.

Now I do not have any high level sources, imagined or otherwise, just what i think are common sense arguments. Can people conjure up the death of the ACC? Sure and maybe the Mayans are right and none of this will really matter. i am the death cartoon from family guy when it comes to the acc

 

[Sean]

Speculation of this being the end of the ACC seems far too biased, to me. If FSU and one of Clemson/Miami leave, I think it's far more realistic that the ACC snaps up Uconn/Rutgers, essentially rebuilding the Big East in the ACC. Louisville would also be a possibility, although it might be just as likely that they get the final big 12 spot, with Rutgers or UConn then being left in the cold.

The ACC's strong foundation in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland makes it far too viable to just disappear. They'd be much better off taking UConn/Rutgers to complete their geographic footprint, and formally kill off the Big East.

 

[observer]

Of course, how could I have been so mistaken. Half of the ACC is just going to go with FSU to the Big 12. Makes total sense.

Just a complete mistake to stay in a stable conference; better to join a conference that has lost four members in the last two years.

And Maryland is going to join the Big 10. You know, the Big 10 that expands at the speed of a glacier and could have taken MD at any time before.

And that means the ACC is gone as a place for UConn to land and what is left of the ACC grovels to join the NBE.

Wait, hold on a sec. Just saw a flock of pigs fly by my wiindow so anything is possible.

 

[WallStreetHusky]

FSU may or may not leave the ACC; just as any school may or may not leave a conference. What my posts have been primarily directed at is the idea that schools will just jump willy nilly from one conference to another whenever a few more dollars are available. There is more to it than that.

Reasons for FSU to leave are basically more money in the current TV contract.
I don't know Obs., if I have to be someone's beyotch regardless, I am going for the best paying pimp. Also, I think at least the Horns and OU at least have football as their priority. FSU shares more philosophically with them than the Lords of Tobacco Road.
Reasons for FSU to stay in the ACC: cost of ACC withdrawal fee (20 million); additional costs of travel in Big 12 (have seen estimates of 2-3 million per year); having to give up playing either Miami (unless Miami also goes to the Big 12) or Florida because Big 12 has 9 conference games and if FSU played both would have room for only one patsy per year; hardship on athletes and their academics due to longer travel for conference games; hardship on fans as far as travelling to Big 12 away games as opposed to ACC games; academics (of course, only a factor in my simplistic analysis...FSU is really a football team with a University attached to it so who other than a few misguided souls gives a hoot about academics); easier path to BCS championship/playoff thru ACC than Big 12

A wash; being Texas' b*tch or that of Tobacco Road. Probably better in the ACC because despite the issues about this to date no ACC teams have left the ACC while Texas managed to drive away a good chunk of the Big 12 in the last two years. Devil you know as opposed to the one you don't.

Now I do not have any high level sources, imagined or otherwise, just what i think are common sense arguments. Can people conjure up the death of the ACC? Sure and maybe the Mayans are right and none of this will really matter.

I don't know Obs, if I have to be someone's beyotch regardless, I am going for the best paying pimp.

Also, the Horns and OU would at least share football as the main priority with FSU, unlike the Lords of Tobacco Road.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Speculation of this being the end of the ACC seems far too biased, to me. If FSU and one of Clemson/Miami leave, I think it's far more realistic that the ACC snaps up Uconn/Rutgers, essentially rebuilding the Big East in the ACC. Louisville would also be a possibility, although it might be just as likely that they get the final big 12 spot, with Rutgers or UConn then being left in the cold.

The ACC's strong foundation in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland makes it far too viable to just disappear. They'd be much better off taking UConn/Rutgers to complete their geographic footprint, and formally kill off the Big East.

I honestly think that if the B12 can get FSU they would have almost no incentive to stop there. I think that Miami, Clemson, and one more would be pretty easy pickings for them at that point. Losing 4 schools to the B12 I think would leave the ACC very vulnerable to the B!G and SEC. Hell, losing 2 schools would weaken them significantly. They really better hope they don't lose anyone.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Of course, how could I have been so mistaken. Half of the ACC is just going to go with FSU to the Big 12. Makes total sense.

Just a complete mistake to stay in a stable conference; better to join a conference that has lost four members in the last two years.

And Maryland is going to join the Big 10. You know, the Big 10 that expands at the speed of a glacier and could have taken MD at any time before.

And that means the ACC is gone as a place for UConn to land and what is left of the ACC grovels to join the NBE.

Wait, hold on a sec. Just saw a flock of pigs fly by my wiindow so anything is possible.

It seems to me that you really don't want the ACC to lose any members.

 

[junglehusky]

If FSU and Clemson leave, every schools is going to try to get out. Several are already trying.

I think the TV contract was so far below market because ESPN and the ACC knew they were losing schools.

The way I would phrase it: if FSU and Clemson leave, several ACC schools will evaluate leaving, some of whom will establish contact with other conferences. Depending whether the SEC wants NCSt. or if the B1G wants UVa/UMd, and how badly they want to add them would determine whether the ACC implodes immediately. I would guess that if 2+ schools don't decide to leave within a year after FSU makes it's decision, the ACC would get a GOR agreement written and invite UConn and rutgers.

The other factor is whether these schools trust each other. Nobody in theBE trusts each other today (Louisville is being upfront about wanting out, and id guess if things get serious between us and the ACC Herbst would make a similar disclosure...) If NCSt forms an exploratory committee what will UNC do? What if Maryland makes overtures but no other conferences are interested? It's easy to say the while thing collapses, but maybe they stagger along like the BE has. I don't know what will happen.

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[junglehusky]

Everybody wants more TV money, but not every school is going to be able to get what they want.

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[ConnHuskBask]

I think the TV contract was so far below market because ESPN and the ACC knew they were losing schools.

Throughout this whole mess, this is something I actually agree with you on.

ESPN knows exactly what is going on and I think they negotiated the ACC deal picturing UConn/Rutgers in the place of Clemson/FSU, while the Big12 was negotiated with more money knowing that FSU/Clemson would be coming in later.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Throughout this whole mess, this is something I actually agree with you on.

ESPN knows exactly what is going on and I think they negotiated the ACC deal picturing UConn/Rutgers in the place of Clemson/FSU, while the Big12 was negotiated with more money knowing that FSU/Clemson would be coming in later.

I think Clemson/FSU for UConn/Rutgers still gets the ACC close to $20MM and might even leave the Tier 3's. I think more departures are anticipated.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The way I would phrase it: if FSU and Clemson leave, several ACC schools will evaluate leaving, some of whom will establish contact with other conferences. Depending whether the SEC wants NCSt. or if the B1G wants UVa/UMd, and how badly they want to add them would determine whether the ACC implodes immediately. I would guess that if 2+ schools don't decide to leave within a year after FSU makes it's decision, the ACC would get a GOR agreement written and invite UConn and rutgers.

The other factor is whether these schools trust each other. Nobody in theBE trusts each other today (Louisville is being upfront about wanting out, and id guess if things get serious between us and the ACC Herbst would make a similar disclosure...) If NCSt forms an exploratory committee what will UNC do? What if Maryland makes overtures but no other conferences are interested? It's easy to say the while thing collapses, but maybe they stagger along like the BE has. I don't know what will happen.

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The think about the ACC is there are a handful of programs that every other conference would want: UNC, UVa, maybe VTech to a lesser extent. There are others like Maryland, GTech, Miami, FSU, NC State and Clemson that could be very valuable and accretive to the right league. So when a league with these properties gets a deal that is so far below what similar schools are getting, there will be departures. And probably more than just Clemson and FSU.

 

[Dann]

I think Clemson/FSU for UConn/Rutgers still gets the ACC close to $20MM and might even leave the Tier 3's. I think more departures are anticipated.

agree here, its 3 or 4 acc schools are moving asap. thats why lville is ready to go and s'ing d to get out. they know the b12 has 4 or 5 teams on the hook and are hoping only 3 pull the trigger so they get the 4th slot.

i read off wvu they were linking to a clemson guy who posts on a pay site. i guess they have been talking about him for a while now and hes been right on the mark with things the past month as far as tv $$ and also the acc stuff. he posted today i guess that fsu/clem/miami were gone for sure and that gt was 50/50. if gt doesn't go then the b12 will go after md before settling for lville. he also says that for 16 one day there is a reason pitt now filed to sue the nbe. he thinks that now pitt realizes how screwed the acc is and they want out for 2013 so that they can get spot 15 or 16 in the b12.

lets say that this is all true for a sec and the b12 looks like this in 2015

east division- wvu/pitt/lville/fsu/miami/gt/clem/tcu

now the acc would be the bacco 4 plus md/uva/vt/cuse/bc

considering the sec and big have not acted yet, how the heck do u join that? i mean i think in this case they attempt to add uconn/ruty/temple to get to 12. then maybe usf/ucf for 14 and to get back in fl, but thats a iffy add for such stuck up schools from a academics standpoint. but i mean the sec and b12 are not going to let the other have more teams for long(they want = namm payouts and = #'s chance wise to make bcs/ncss things). the sec will add 2 of 3 spots. a 2nd texas market, va or nc. that leaves the acc on notice. many say vt/ncst are the top 2 picks becuase that rebalances east in west in the sec. the b10 wants big publics, thats no secret and a couple east coast ones would do the trick. it would officially kill the acc and force nd to join as it would have no other possible home. lets be honest the b12 checked 1 last time before lville was 16, it was never happening. the question is for the last 3 spots(nd is #13 lets say), who of unc/uva/md/ruty/uconn are left out. those 2 are screwed and have to wait until the next contract 10 years from now.

thats what i'm worried about, so why do the dance and no get the invite when instead the only top 15 heck top 30 school in the country thats not in a top 4 is bsu and they can be in your league right now if you just stay. uh isn't far off and usf/ucf i'm sure will be in tune with uconn/ruty. just me.

 

[RS9999X]

The PAC and BiG already announced their inbreeding plan to play a full slate of 12 games against each other and matchup in the Rose Bowl and are looking at 9 game conference schedules.

The big fear is the B12 going to 14 teams and matchng up with the SEC for 14 games and adopting 9 game schedules and playing in a Jerry Jones Bowl as a counterpart to the Rose Bowl.

The greatest fear: the Big 4 can scrap the conference championship games and advance 2 teams each (the conference divisional winners) into an 8 team playoff (a 7-bowl series) and rake in mountains of greenbacks.

Teams left out of that cluster frak simply won't matter. Boise versus Notre Dame might draw some viewers Holiday Week but it simply would not matter. Pitt V Lousville? UConn v. Miami? BYU v. Maryland? Forget it. Those 52 teams in the Big 4 would rule Div I which is what they want.

They are on the cusp of this IMHO. All it takes is a little chutzpah. Likely they set it up by teh B12 adding 2 teams now and going for the 4 team playoff. By 2020 the B14 will exist and inbreeding will procede.

 

[Dann]

i just don't see things like that happening until they each get to 16. i mean the b10 who is all holy in there ways, created a new logo when they went to 12 but the logo has a 16 in it. thats telling imo. but yes i fear that 8 team big 4 only bids also. that why i want uconn in th next best possible conf if we get left out to fight the power. bsu for example is someone we need to be with, same with byu. that 5th best league will be the one to push the edge, no one else can compete at all with the big 4. we need to be in the best possible spot so one day when they goto 18 and 9 team divisions, we are picked. i fear that if we join a private school league of teams that are collecting paychecks and not striving to be great, our program may not be able to explode on the scene.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I find the risk of the "Big 4" conferences splitting from the rest is low. My reasons:

1) The BCS is an anti-trust loser as is, which is why it keeps upping the payout and access for non-BCS schools every time the non-BCS rattle their sabers. Permanently splitting off would result in an almost instantaneous lawsuit from the other schools. The non-BCS would literally have nothing to lose.

2) I have never seen a sports league split and be successful. Both Indy Cars and boxing are the only major ones that have tried, and both brands were badly damaged by doing so. In fact, no major sports league has even contracted. I don't see "shrinking the market" being a good strategy for any league.

3) The biggest risk for the majors is that their athletic departments get treated like businesses. The money is getting big enough and their behavior is getting "business like" enough that the risk of the IRS ruling they are no longer non-profits at some point is very real. Doing something as aggressive as splitting off from the other colleges would create a political firestorm and bring unwanted attention on those schools.

4) There are too many losers in such a scenario, which would bring unimaginable political pressure not to do it. Even within states, you would have open warfare between different constituencies. Take Ohio State or Michigan for example, both of which have several state schools playing D1A ball that would be badly hurt by a split.

 

[The Funster]

Yep, the big 4 conferences splitting away would trigger an anti trust lawsuit that would for ever change the landscape of college sports. Point #3 is interesting too.