Conversations Happening on CFP Expansion To 8 (The Athletic)

[TerryD]

Good find. Yeah, I am really surprised just how easy Notre Dame cracked the Playoff without the 13th data point and a mediocre schedule. Of course, UNC did them a solid by not making up their PPD game against UCF and locking them in at 12.

Essentially, everybody but Notre Dame and Alabama need a 13th game is the message that the Committee sent. And that's good because America loves to root for the privileged elite silver spoons.

Didn't Ohio State also make the playoffs in 2016 without a 13th data point?

 

[LIuconn]

More free labor by the players

 

[DarthGrumpy]

it seems to be a common theme here:

"Chuck Neinas, a former Big 12 commissioner, has sketched out his preferred plan for an eight-team Playoff. He’s given it to Alvarez, Bowlsby, Hancock and other influential figures in the sport, initially to stoke conversation. Now those conversations are happening.

Neinas’ eight-team model would include the five Power 5 conference champions, the top Group of 5 champion and two at-large spots. Conference championship games would be eliminated. The regular season would end the weekend after Thanksgiving, with quarterfinal games played on campuses the following weekend. Winners would advance to New Year’s Six semifinal games at that year’s designated bowl sites, as usual."

I've heard similar - 5 auto-bids to the winners of the XII, ACC, B1G, PAC, and SEC and one more to bid to the best G5 team, and then 2 wildcards. I think the NCAA has to give an automatic bid to the G5 'winner' to avoid a lawsuit or Congressional investigation driven by State politician somewhere.

The two questions I have heard are - 1) how does each of the P5 conferences select a conference winner and 2) if ND goes undefeated, do they get the ACC auto-bid or one of the wildcards?

 

[RSTuthill]

Give up the revenue from the conference championship games? Not likely. Ain't gonna happen.

 

[BlueandOG]

Expanding to 8 seems like a no-brainer; good for the sport, more money, etc. I only hope it happens before another conference poaches UCF, USF, Cinci, and Memphis.

 

[DoctorWho85]

I know itll never happen, but I'd love to see a 12 team playoff. Every conference champ gets an auto bid and the 2 highest ranks teams not already in get a wild card spot. First round 1 and 2 get a by and second round 1 gets another by

 

[Husky25]

I know itll never happen, but I'd love to see a 12 team playoff. Every conference champ gets an auto bid and the 2 highest ranks teams not already in get a wild card spot. First round 1 and 2 get a by and second round 1 gets another by

I like this because for the inclusion factor, but it also means the #1 (determination is still arbitrary. Bama won't be great forever.) won't play for 3 weeks. Of course that can good or bad. One the one hand their opponents maintain game shape. On the other, greater chance for injury.

 

[VAHuskyFan]

I feel like there will be a lot of talk about including an autobid for the top G5 and then the final language will be “top G5 OR Notre Dame.”

Another variant, as some has already pointed out, would be “top G5 PROVIDED such team is ranked in the Top 10 at the end of the season.”

Or maybe it’s Top 15, which would sound somewhat reasonable, but in practice would likely exclude the G5 most years in which the top G5 team has a loss.

Point being, this would be great for the AAC and the G5 schools (and college football in general), but I have a hard time believing the G5 will get a “clean” autobid in the final tally.

 

[TerryD]

I'm heard similar - 5 auto-bids to the winners of the XII, ACC, B1G, PAC, and SEC and one more to bid to the best G5 team, and then 2 wildcards. I think the NCAA has to give an automatic bid to the G5 'winner' to avoid a lawsuit or Congressional investigation driven by State population somewhere.

The two questions I have heard are - 1) who does each of the P5 conferences select a conference winner and 2) if ND goes undefeated, do they get the ACC auto-bid or one of the wildcards?

Wild card.

Note: Keep an eye on the Alston case decision in January for a potential big shake up affecting CR and college sports in general.

Lawsuit has conferences quietly preparing for the likelihood of compensating players

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Now playoff expansion talk is making to ESPN. I'm sure they'll be happy as its more money for them. I'm glad to hear that ND's Kelly seems to support it, which is of-course self-serving; but his comments about excluding conference champions from the B1G and PAC while making no mention of an undefeated G5 conference champion is warning flag. Even with 8 teams, the P5 may still try to make it very difficult for a G5 team to get in the door.

Irish's Kelly sees 'appetite' to expand playoff to 8

 

[UConnFranklin]

I like the 8 team playoff better than the current 4 team playoff but it still reeks of being a self-serving, money grab by the P-5. I think there should be a guaranteed path to the playoffs for every FBS conference winner (10) and at least 2 at-large bids. If it were a 12 team playoff there could be a play down for teams 5 - 12, while teams 1-4 get byes to the quarter finals. Until it becomes fair for all I will continue to be dismissive of the National Champion.

 

[Palatine]

All the other divisions have 16 team playoffs.

 

[Nostical]

Notre Dame getting in this year without a 13th game is unfair. If you want to see playoff expansion discussions heat up it's important for Clemson to smoke ND.

 

[billybud]

Notre Dame getting in this year without a 13th game is unfair. If you want to see playoff expansion discussions heat up it's important for Clemson to smoke ND.

Just as unfair as if UCF got in while they only played 12 games this year?

 

[Husky25]

Just as unfair as if UCF got in while they only played 12 games this year?

1) UCF is not in the playoff. 2) There is a distinction between cancelling again due to an Act of God vs. not being eligible for a 13th data point. 3) UCF would have destroyed UNC.

 

[TerryD]

Notre Dame getting in this year without a 13th game is unfair. If you want to see playoff expansion discussions heat up it's important for Clemson to smoke ND.

It is not unfair. It is the difference in being an independent rather than being in a conference.

Most of the other playoff teams play an FCS school every year. ND does not.

So, big deal on the "13 game" thing if one is a glorified scrimmage against an FCS team.

(Also, Ohio State got into the playoffs in 2016 without a 13th game, I think. I don't recall the "unfairness" hue and cry then)

If ND loses one game, they are done. Conference teams (like Oklahoma this year) get a second bite at the apple.

Heck, I remember not so long ago (last year, earlier this year) that the conventional wisdom among fans of other schools was that ND was shooting itself in the foot and operating at a competitive disadvantage regarding the playoffs by not being in a conference.

That changed in a hurry. Now, it is "unfair" that they are independent.

Moses didn't bring an edict down from Mt. Sinai that all schools need to be the cookie cutter same and be in a conference.

 

[Stainmaster]

Moses didn't bring an edict down from Mt. Sinai that all schools need to be the cookie cutter same and be in a conference.

No, but I'm pretty sure there's a passage or two in Exodus discussing how certain CFB programs are trading off of a history they haven't added to in generations, and are nowhere near as legendary as they thnk they are.

 

[TerryD]

No, but I'm pretty sure there's a passage or two in Exodus discussing how certain CFB programs are trading off of a history they haven't added to in generations, and are nowhere near as legendary as they thnk they are.

The King Delany Version, perhaps?

ND did make the BCS title game and the playoffs and had 2 undefeated regular seasons within the past six years (it only had 4 undefeated regular seasons from 1950 to 2012).

It also is 22-3 in the past two seasons. It has won 10 or more games 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Maybe not "legendary" but pretty damn good, better than a lot of other programs.

What does being "legendary" or not have to do with being a football independent?

 

[billybud]

1) UCF is not in the playoff. 2) There is a distinction between cancelling again due to an Act of God vs. not being eligible for a 13th data point. 3) UCF would have destroyed UNC.

Probably...since UNC is ranked #92 in Sagarin (but what does such a win say?).....but UCF ended up with 12 wins, none against a top 30, and an SOS of 86...

Notre Dame ended up with 12 wins, two against top 30, and an SOS of 43...

You really think there is any ground for UCF to be ahead of the Irish?

Other than..."Give 'em a chance...they are a G5...OK, they didn't play good teams...but, man, it just ain;t fair."

 

[Husky25]

Probably...since UNC is ranked #92 in Sagarin (but what does such a win say?).....but UCF ended up with 12 wins, none against a top 30, and an SOS of 86...

Notre Dame ended up with 12 wins, two against top 30, and an SOS of 43...

You really think there is any ground for UCF to be ahead of the Irish?

Other than..."Give 'em a chance...they are a G5...OK, they didn't play good teams...but, man, it just ain;t fair."

The #6 team to end 2017 dropped to #21 to begin 2018. #11 began 2018 at #12. UCF never had a shot.

 

[billybud]

The #6 team to end 2017 dropped to #21 to begin 2018. #11 began 2018 at #12. UCF never had a shot.

Massey's Composite of 100 plus ratings has UCF #8....the computers don't care about all the human thoughts on rankings.

Massey Composite has the first four as Bama...Clemson...Georgia...Notre Dame...

The humans put in Oklahoma over Georgia....but UCF was not close to top 4...but would have made an 8 team playoff as the #8 seed.

 

[huskymedic]

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany joins chorus of leaders...

>>Add Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany to the growing chorus calling for an examination of the CFP structure now, well before the end of the Playoff’s initial 12-year contract with ESPN ends in 2026.

“The Big Ten would be happy to discuss structure issues with colleagues,” Delany told The Athletic. “It’s probably a good idea, given all of the conversations and noise around the issue, to have discussions with our colleagues.

“The Big Ten would definitely have conversations.”

Delany is the second Power 5 conference commissioner to tell The Athletic that he supports serious efforts to examine and potentially expedite expansion. “It’s an appropriate thing to begin thinking about,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said last week. <<

 

[billybud]

After the B1G missing two CFP playoffs...Delaney NOW wants to do something.

 

[BlueDogs]

After the B1G missing two CFP playoffs...Delaney NOW wants to do something.

Yup. Now, they are concerned about fairness and inclusion...weird how that works.

 

[Husky25]

Massey's Composite of 100 plus ratings has UCF #8....the computers don't care about all the human thoughts on rankings.

Massey Composite has the first four as Bama...Clemson...Georgia...Notre Dame...

The humans put in Oklahoma over Georgia....but UCF was not close to top 4...but would have made an 8 team playoff as the #8 seed.

UCF notwithstanding (I didn't bring them up), I've already said that I am for an expanded playoff based solely on inclusion. More participants makes for more meaningful games, more better drama, and more interest. Before the CFP, there was 1 meaningful game and 39 exhibitions. The 4 team playoff was half baked in its implementation. 5 "CSMA" conferences (6, I believe in its development, before the Big East was relegated) to fill 4 spots does nothing to quell the controversy of the BCS. It only served to push it 2 spots further down the rankings, adds only 2 more meaningful games, and maintains 38 exhibitions, which are increasingly less meaningful as star upperclassmen skip them in order to keep their bodies fresh for the NFL spring festivities.

Now to answer your question...

Does the CFP Selection committee exclusively use Massey? If not, why not? Take it a step further, why even have a selection committee at all if Massey is the most accurate predictive model?

Rankings aside, there will always be a human element. Humans develop these algorithms. Humans determine the data inputs. When all is said and done, humans want to maximize return.

Humans put in Oklahoma over Georgia because of the eye test and reputation. Oklahoma is P-5 and won their CCG. Georgia did not. Oklahoma (8) is not close to the top 4 either and only 0.01 ahead of 9th rank UCF in the Massey Ratings as of December 15. Going by your logic, Ohio State (#5) should be in over OU. They won their title game, are 12-1, #5 in the Massey rankings, and 0.06 ahead of Oklahoma.