Conversations Happening on CFP Expansion To 8 (The Athletic)

[UConnFranklin]

I like the 8 team playoff better than the current 4 team playoff but it still reeks of being a self-serving, money grab by the P-5. I think there should be a guaranteed path to the playoffs for every FBS conference winner (10) and at least 2 at-large bids. If it were a 12 team playoff there could be a play down for teams 5 - 12, while teams 1-4 get byes to the quarter finals. Until it becomes fair for all I will continue to be dismissive of the National Champion.

 

[Palatine]

All the other divisions have 16 team playoffs.

 

[Nostical]

Notre Dame getting in this year without a 13th game is unfair. If you want to see playoff expansion discussions heat up it's important for Clemson to smoke ND.

 

[billybud]

Notre Dame getting in this year without a 13th game is unfair. If you want to see playoff expansion discussions heat up it's important for Clemson to smoke ND.

Just as unfair as if UCF got in while they only played 12 games this year?

 

[Husky25]

Just as unfair as if UCF got in while they only played 12 games this year?

1) UCF is not in the playoff. 2) There is a distinction between cancelling again due to an Act of God vs. not being eligible for a 13th data point. 3) UCF would have destroyed UNC.

 

[TerryD]

Notre Dame getting in this year without a 13th game is unfair. If you want to see playoff expansion discussions heat up it's important for Clemson to smoke ND.

It is not unfair. It is the difference in being an independent rather than being in a conference.

Most of the other playoff teams play an FCS school every year. ND does not.

So, big deal on the "13 game" thing if one is a glorified scrimmage against an FCS team.

(Also, Ohio State got into the playoffs in 2016 without a 13th game, I think. I don't recall the "unfairness" hue and cry then)

If ND loses one game, they are done. Conference teams (like Oklahoma this year) get a second bite at the apple.

Heck, I remember not so long ago (last year, earlier this year) that the conventional wisdom among fans of other schools was that ND was shooting itself in the foot and operating at a competitive disadvantage regarding the playoffs by not being in a conference.

That changed in a hurry. Now, it is "unfair" that they are independent.

Moses didn't bring an edict down from Mt. Sinai that all schools need to be the cookie cutter same and be in a conference.

 

[Stainmaster]

Moses didn't bring an edict down from Mt. Sinai that all schools need to be the cookie cutter same and be in a conference.

No, but I'm pretty sure there's a passage or two in Exodus discussing how certain CFB programs are trading off of a history they haven't added to in generations, and are nowhere near as legendary as they thnk they are.

 

[TerryD]

No, but I'm pretty sure there's a passage or two in Exodus discussing how certain CFB programs are trading off of a history they haven't added to in generations, and are nowhere near as legendary as they thnk they are.

The King Delany Version, perhaps?

ND did make the BCS title game and the playoffs and had 2 undefeated regular seasons within the past six years (it only had 4 undefeated regular seasons from 1950 to 2012).

It also is 22-3 in the past two seasons. It has won 10 or more games 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Maybe not "legendary" but pretty damn good, better than a lot of other programs.

What does being "legendary" or not have to do with being a football independent?

 

[billybud]

1) UCF is not in the playoff. 2) There is a distinction between cancelling again due to an Act of God vs. not being eligible for a 13th data point. 3) UCF would have destroyed UNC.

Probably...since UNC is ranked #92 in Sagarin (but what does such a win say?).....but UCF ended up with 12 wins, none against a top 30, and an SOS of 86...

Notre Dame ended up with 12 wins, two against top 30, and an SOS of 43...

You really think there is any ground for UCF to be ahead of the Irish?

Other than..."Give 'em a chance...they are a G5...OK, they didn't play good teams...but, man, it just ain;t fair."

 

[Husky25]

Probably...since UNC is ranked #92 in Sagarin (but what does such a win say?).....but UCF ended up with 12 wins, none against a top 30, and an SOS of 86...

Notre Dame ended up with 12 wins, two against top 30, and an SOS of 43...

You really think there is any ground for UCF to be ahead of the Irish?

Other than..."Give 'em a chance...they are a G5...OK, they didn't play good teams...but, man, it just ain;t fair."

The #6 team to end 2017 dropped to #21 to begin 2018. #11 began 2018 at #12. UCF never had a shot.

 

[billybud]

The #6 team to end 2017 dropped to #21 to begin 2018. #11 began 2018 at #12. UCF never had a shot.

Massey's Composite of 100 plus ratings has UCF #8....the computers don't care about all the human thoughts on rankings.

Massey Composite has the first four as Bama...Clemson...Georgia...Notre Dame...

The humans put in Oklahoma over Georgia....but UCF was not close to top 4...but would have made an 8 team playoff as the #8 seed.

 

[huskymedic]

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany joins chorus of leaders...

>>Add Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany to the growing chorus calling for an examination of the CFP structure now, well before the end of the Playoff’s initial 12-year contract with ESPN ends in 2026.

“The Big Ten would be happy to discuss structure issues with colleagues,” Delany told The Athletic. “It’s probably a good idea, given all of the conversations and noise around the issue, to have discussions with our colleagues.

“The Big Ten would definitely have conversations.”

Delany is the second Power 5 conference commissioner to tell The Athletic that he supports serious efforts to examine and potentially expedite expansion. “It’s an appropriate thing to begin thinking about,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said last week. <<

 

[billybud]

After the B1G missing two CFP playoffs...Delaney NOW wants to do something.

 

[BlueDogs]

After the B1G missing two CFP playoffs...Delaney NOW wants to do something.

Yup. Now, they are concerned about fairness and inclusion...weird how that works.

 

[Husky25]

Massey's Composite of 100 plus ratings has UCF #8....the computers don't care about all the human thoughts on rankings.

Massey Composite has the first four as Bama...Clemson...Georgia...Notre Dame...

The humans put in Oklahoma over Georgia....but UCF was not close to top 4...but would have made an 8 team playoff as the #8 seed.

UCF notwithstanding (I didn't bring them up), I've already said that I am for an expanded playoff based solely on inclusion. More participants makes for more meaningful games, more better drama, and more interest. Before the CFP, there was 1 meaningful game and 39 exhibitions. The 4 team playoff was half baked in its implementation. 5 "CSMA" conferences (6, I believe in its development, before the Big East was relegated) to fill 4 spots does nothing to quell the controversy of the BCS. It only served to push it 2 spots further down the rankings, adds only 2 more meaningful games, and maintains 38 exhibitions, which are increasingly less meaningful as star upperclassmen skip them in order to keep their bodies fresh for the NFL spring festivities.

Now to answer your question...

Does the CFP Selection committee exclusively use Massey? If not, why not? Take it a step further, why even have a selection committee at all if Massey is the most accurate predictive model?

Rankings aside, there will always be a human element. Humans develop these algorithms. Humans determine the data inputs. When all is said and done, humans want to maximize return.

Humans put in Oklahoma over Georgia because of the eye test and reputation. Oklahoma is P-5 and won their CCG. Georgia did not. Oklahoma (8) is not close to the top 4 either and only 0.01 ahead of 9th rank UCF in the Massey Ratings as of December 15. Going by your logic, Ohio State (#5) should be in over OU. They won their title game, are 12-1, #5 in the Massey rankings, and 0.06 ahead of Oklahoma.

 

[billybud]

UCF notwithstanding (I didn't bring them up), I've already said that I am for an expanded playoff based solely on inclusion. More participants makes for more meaningful games, more better drama, and more interest. Before the CFP, there was 1 meaningful game and 39 exhibitions. The 4 team playoff was half baked in its implementation. 5 "CSMA" conferences (6, I believe in its development, before the Big East was relegated) to fill 4 spots does nothing to quell the controversy of the BCS. It only served to push it 2 spots further down the rankings, adds only 2 more meaningful games, and maintains 38 exhibitions, which are increasingly less meaningful as star upperclassmen skip them in order to keep their bodies fresh for the NFL spring festivities.

Now to answer your question...

Does the CFP Selection committee exclusively use Massey? If not, why not? Take it a step further, why even have a selection committee at all if Massey is the most accurate predictive model?

Rankings aside, there will always be a human element. Humans develop these algorithms. Humans determine the data inputs. When all is said and done, humans want to maximize return.

Humans put in Oklahoma over Georgia because of the eye test and reputation. Oklahoma is P-5 and won their CCG. Georgia did not. Oklahoma (8) is not close to the top 4 either and only 0.01 ahead of 9th rank UCF in the Massey Ratings as of December 15. Going by your logic, Ohio State (#5) should be in over OU. They won their title game, are 12-1, #5 in the Massey rankings, and 0.06 ahead of Oklahoma.

Don't confuse Massey Ratings (one computer) with the Massey Composite Rating....the compilation of 100+ systems.

 

[Husky25]

Don't confuse Massey Ratings (one computer) with the Massey Composite Rating....the compilation of 100+ systems.

Quite honestly, I really don't care about any of it, but since I threw myself into the subject...

So long as the the ultimate arbiter in assigning spots in the "playoff" is human, the national champion at the FBS level will have a non-insignificant degree of subjectivity. A subjectivity, however, that has an inverse relationship to the number of participants. Obviously, the CFP cannot have 68 teams like the NCAA Basketball Tournament, but every other level of football has a bracketed playoff with far more than 4 teams.

 

[uconnyankee]

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany joins chorus of leaders...

>>Add Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany to the growing chorus calling for an examination of the CFP structure now, well before the end of the Playoff’s initial 12-year contract with ESPN ends in 2026.

“The Big Ten would be happy to discuss structure issues with colleagues,” Delany told The Athletic. “It’s probably a good idea, given all of the conversations and noise around the issue, to have discussions with our colleagues.

“The Big Ten would definitely have conversations.”

Delany is the second Power 5 conference commissioner to tell The Athletic that he supports serious efforts to examine and potentially expedite expansion. “It’s an appropriate thing to begin thinking about,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said last week. <<

Of course he would. Who's the Big 10 rep this year?

 

[huskymedic]

>>In the case of Delany, arguably the most influential voice in the sport, the answer may seem obvious: His conference has been excluded from the Playoff the past two years (and its champion the past three years). Rather than accepting that his teams just weren’t good enough, he just wants to make it easier for them to get in. Right?

That’s not the entirety of his reasoning.

With five power conferences plus Notre Dame playing for four spots, Delany and his counterparts who devised the CFP knew there were no guarantees for their conferences. His and others’ primary beefs seem not to be with certain teams’ exclusions but the selection process itself.

Delany himself was the primary proponent of a selection committee in the first place. The introduction to the official Selection Committee Protocol on the CFP’s Web site is primarily his words. He, along with the Pac-12’s Larry Scott, thought they had been pretty clear in establishing a mandate that the committee should reward ambitious scheduling and conference championships whenever possible.<<

>>Arguably the biggest frustration for Delany, Bowlsby and Scott is the committee seems to care not the slightest about scheduling inequities — to the SEC’s benefit. If it did, Florida would not be sitting in the Top 10 with a 9-3 record, four of those wins having come against 5-7 Florida State, 3-9 Colorado State and FCS foes Charleston Southern and Idaho.<<