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Commentary Thread for Premium Top-Shelf Tweets

RE: Mark Blaudschun's post

My take: pure garbage. He's just making stuff up. While the Big 12 may ultimately decide to take 2 schools, if they do so they're going to take two in the same direction. I think it's Cincy/UConn if they go with only two. They're not going to create additional islands.

It'll be in order of likelihood:

UConn/Cincy
Cincy/Memphis
Cincy/Houston
BYU/CSU
BYU/Cincy
 
On the other hand, some clown's post on Reddit is not premium in any way.
 
Slasher said:
RE: Mark Blaudschun's post

My take: pure garbage. He's just making stuff up. While the Big 12 may ultimately decide to take 2 schools, if they do so they're going to take two in the same direction. I think it's Cincy/UConn if they go with only two. They're not going to create additional islands.

It'll be in order of likelihood:

UConn/Cincy
Cincy/Memphis
Cincy/Houston
BYU/CSU
BYU/Cincy
Expand ...

To follow up I think there's just too many problems with Memphis/Houston/BYU to take them without going to four. The BYU/Cincy combo may be the one exception, but I just don't see it.
 
Blauds doesn't make things up when he's not obviously speculating his opinion in an article. He's very well connected in the Northeast. It's clear from his post that nothing is decided and he's reporting on what the current thoughts are. But he was clear that it easily could, and likely will, change in some capacity.
 
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I hate Memphis and their fans. Hopefully we get 1 more crack at them before our (hopeful) departure from the AAC.
 
No offense, but Cincy and Houston only would be the epitome of G5 expansion. So, Mr. Cincy journalist is dubiously filling a deadline quota.
 
"Don't be surprised if Houston and Cincinnati is the compromise". Wow if that actually happens, why even add any teams?
 
Look... it's not about a handful of presidents sitting down and saying "do we want to go for two, or four?" ... it's ten schools with different ideas of what they want PLUS two networks that are not happy about being on the hook for the pro rata. There's no reason to expect this process to come to a logical conclusion. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
 
Latest from Cinn writer, J Williams, is pretty consistent with Tramel and even Blauds. Big 12 trying to limit to 2 as opposed to 4 but may not be able to if they want BYU and Houston because OU is in Cincy's corner and Texas needs Houston for political reasons. If they can't agree to just 2, Uconn has a real shot.
 
So a journalist from Ohio claims that Cincy is in and everyone is losing their $#@T over that?? I don't quite get it...it seems to me to be the equivalent of Jeff Jacobs saying we're one of the two schools in...am I missing some connection this guy has??
 
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This isnt any different than what we have been hearing or thinking. If it is 2 we are pretty much screwed but if it is 4 we are in decent shape. If it is 2 I hope they can't get the votes to approve who they want. CR rule # 1 is getting ready to come into play again
 
junglehusky said:
Look... it's not about a handful of presidents sitting down and saying "do we want to go for two, or four?" ... it's ten schools with different ideas of what they want PLUS two networks that are not happy about being on the hook for the pro rata. There's no reason to expect this process to come to a logical conclusion. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
Expand ...
Agree with this.What worries me is that adding 2 teams is gaining momentum to appease the networks, and there has been no reports that would put Uconn in top 2. It is pretty easy to see a 2 team compromise, but Uconn would need to have one of Tex or OU pushing for inclusion, and there is no indication that is the case.
 
UCFBfan said:
So a journalist from Ohio claims that Cincy is in and everyone is losing their $#@T over that?? I don't quite get it...it seems to me to be the equivalent of Jeff Jacobs saying we're one of the two schools in...am I missing some connection this guy has??
Expand ...
It is not just him, check out the other reports, like Blauds and Tramel. It is not all that different from the others.
 
junglehusky said:
Look... it's not about a handful of presidents sitting down and saying "do we want to go for two, or four?" ... it's ten schools with different ideas of what they want PLUS two networks that are not happy about being on the hook for the pro rata. There's no reason to expect this process to come to a logical conclusion. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
Expand ...
Yes it is a disaster waiting to happen. I personally believe that there are two many moving parts for a decision to be reached this early. My guess is the ten schools are about a week away from sitting down together to vote on this and then the conclusion will take a few days.

One variable that I would like to have a better handle on is Texas' desire to move into Houston. How valuable would that campus be to UT (to be addressed later)? How capable is UH in terms of preventing this and how do Texas (and Houston) politics play in terms of this? If this were not part of the equation I would be exceptionally confident that we would be in.

The UT system is a bit unique. Their 'branches' are basically independent schools (somewhat like the way things work in California & North Carolina but UT governs those schools and more importantly has control of the UT system's endowment (save any donations specifically earmarked to other UT schools). If adding a Houston campus leads to a donation windfall, UT would not want to jeopardize this.
 
Let's hope that the reports about FOX wanting 4 with a preference for eastern teams are true.

CardiffGiant said:
Agree with this.What worries me is that adding 2 teams is gaining momentum to appease the networks, and there has been no reports that would put Uconn in top 2. It is pretty easy to see a 2 team compromise, but Uconn would need to have one of Tex or OU pushing for inclusion, and there is no indication that is the case.
Expand ...
 
I think this still comes down to the schools other than OU and UT. Every one of those schools should be viewing expansion as "adding value for the inevitable departures of OU and UT." They should not care what FOX and ESPN thinks. If 4 is in the contract, who fuqhin cares if that upsets the TV execs.
 
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UConnTrumbull said:
I think this still comes down to the schools other than OU and UT. Every one of those schools should be viewing expansion as "adding value for the inevitable departures of OU and UT." They should not care what FOX and ESPN thinks. If 4 is in the contract, who fuqhin cares if that upsets the TV execs.
Expand ...
I do understand whalers point on this, but ultimately, I think this is the right way to look at it.
 
If you're realistic, you'd have to think we're the fourth horse in potentially a two-horse race.

It essentially makes no difference who they add - they do not have a network coming and all they need is numbers.

If adding Houston or BYU or Cincy means they get their contract bump at a minimum travel expense or satisfies some political agenda, that will do.

All of the metrics we cite for UConn - academics, athletic department success, etc., etc. - do not mean anything when you boil it down to the Big 12's simple need for a warm body.
 
I don't know if Williams' tweet qualifies as per but if it is accurate, the B-12 had a very short list (5 schools at most) and after eliminating one (Memphis - per OU's directive) were left with merely deciding on adding two or four schools.

If they are ready to make an announcement and it is only one school (not sure why they would take this approach) they haven't yet come to an agreement on two or four.
 
Fishy said:
If you're realistic, you'd have to think we're the fourth horse in potentially a two-horse race.

It essentially makes no difference who they add - they do not have a network coming and all they need is numbers.

If adding Houston or BYU or Cincy means they get their contract bump at a minimum travel expense or satisfies some political agenda, that will do.

All of the metrics we cite for UConn - academics, athletic department success, etc., etc. - do not mean anything when you boil it down to the Big 12's simple need for a warm body.
Expand ...

Unless I missed some other tweets where Williams explained himself, it sounds like Williams is just giving an opinion with no facts or even analysis supporting it.

Houston is #4 out of 4. Memphis is not on the list. I don't think there is any way the non-Texas team will tolerate another Texas stooge as #11 or #12.

Unfortunately, we may be #13 out of 12. I feel less confident on UConn vs. BYU vs. Cincinnati.
 
junglehusky said:
Look... it's not about a handful of presidents sitting down and saying "do we want to go for two, or four?" ... it's ten schools with different ideas of what they want PLUS two networks that are not happy about being on the hook for the pro rata. There's no reason to expect this process to come to a logical conclusion. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
Expand ...

And oh yeah - they have watched Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Texas A&M leave while coming up with WVU and TCU....

The idea that you can apply logic to how the Big 12 works is funny.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
Unless I missed some other tweets where Williams explained himself, it sounds like Williams is just giving an opinion with no facts or even analysis supporting it.

Houston is #4 out of 4. Memphis is not on the list. I don't think there is any way the non-Texas team will tolerate another Texas stooge as #11 or #12.

Unfortunately, we may be #13 out of 12. I feel less confident on UConn vs. BYU vs. Cincinnati.
Expand ...

Are you serious?

The other schools in the league would sign on to expand with SMU and Houston if it extended the TV deal and the GOR 10 more years.

If Texas will extend the GOR they can name whomever they like.

BTW there is no 'list'.
 
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whaler11 said:
Are you serious?

The other schools in the league would sign on to expand with SMU and Houston if it extended the TV deal and the GOR 10 more years.

If Texas will extend the GOR they can name whomever they like.

BTW there is no 'list'.
Expand ...

If we are going to make up fantasy scenarios, then yes, if Texas will extend the GOR through 2035 they can name any school they want. That is not possible without a TV contract extension. I don't think it is even legally possible, because how do you write an agreement to extend TV rights when there is no underlying contract of TV rights to extend?

I don't think the networks are interested in more Texas teams either. Houston is not popular among the northern 6 and is not popular with the networks as a standalone. I also don't think Oklahoma would extend its GOR for Houston and 1 other school. Houston is a credible addition 1 of 4, but that is it.
 
Our aces in the hole to be one or two are: BYU as a religious closed institution and being a better add than Cincy with WVU opposing them.

Ok, so those aren't exactly aces but they are at least 9's.

14 is probably still our best hope. I think the networks are the ones opposed to that. The L8 should be all in for 14 if the $$ works. UT and OU shouldn't care.
 
SubbaBub said:
Our aces in the hole to be one or two are: BYU as a religious closed institution and being a better add than Cincy with WVU opposing them.

Ok, so those aren't exactly aces but they are at least 9's.

14 is probably still our best hope. I think the networks are the ones opposed to that. The L8 should be all in for 14 if the $$ works. UT and OU shouldn't care.
Expand ...

Yes, I think this is right. Before TX politics got in the way, back when UT was opposed to adding Houston, I think UC and UConn were an easy choice. The networks want to go east, not west, everyone seems to agree on that. BYU has baggage, and may not be well liked for various reasons, despite being solid for athletics and undergrad academics. I am not sold on BYU being the top choice.

So now Houston messes up the mix. I don't think they want just Cinci and UH. It's pretty weak and the non TX schools won't accept that. Networks don't want UH at all. Here's my longshot prediction, they bail on BYU, and get UC, UH, UConn and UCF. The simple reality is that you're either going east or west, but not both.
 
Fishy said:
If you're realistic, you'd have to think we're the fourth horse in potentially a two-horse race.

It essentially makes no difference who they add - they do not have a network coming and all they need is numbers.

If adding Houston or BYU or Cincy means they get their contract bump at a minimum travel expense or satisfies some political agenda, that will do.

All of the metrics we cite for UConn - academics, athletic department success, etc., etc. - do not mean anything when you boil it down to the Big 12's simple need for a warm body.
Expand ...
I totally agree, and am very thankful that UCONN didn't beg and plead to enter the big 12 like the other contenders. Sure we're interested and it would be GREAT to be invited. However, we are not desperate. Once we shore up our football and start dominating the AAC, we will be the most attractive G5 option for a better conference (ACC, B1G). Yes, it will take years before they expand. But they will expand. And we will be ready.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
If we are going to make up fantasy scenarios, then yes, if Texas will extend the GOR through 2035 they can name any school they want. That is not possible without a TV contract extension. I don't think it is even legally possible, because how do you write an agreement to extend TV rights when there is no underlying contract of TV rights to extend?

I don't think the networks are interested in more Texas teams either. Houston is not popular among the northern 6 and is not popular with the networks as a standalone. I also don't think Oklahoma would extend its GOR for Houston and 1 other school. Houston is a credible addition 1 of 4, but that is it.
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A. Obviously the GOR would be extended with the rights deal like I said in the prior paragraph.

B. Much like I didn't think the ACC teams didn't want to leave. I don't think OU or UT actually want to leave - by 2025 I'm pretty sure there won't be anywhere for OU to go.

So I don't think it's out of the question the deal and GOR get extended.
 
BlueandOG said:
I totally agree, and am very thankful that UCONN didn't beg and plead to enter the big 12 like the other contenders. Sure we're interested and it would be GREAT to be invited. However, we are not desperate. Once we shore up our football and start dominating the AAC, we will be the most attractive G5 option for a better conference (ACC, B1G). Yes, it will take years before they expand. But they will expand. And we will be ready.
Expand ...
We have been hearing this sad song since Warde Manuel arrived. We have to do this, we have to do that, yet whenever a conference expands, it never includes UConn, but schools that have inferior metrics. No matter what UConn does, it never seems good enough. To even think a Memphis or Houston or even Cincinnati is ahead of UConn is incredible, so it looks like public begging and pleading do have a positive effect as it appears that Cinci will be #1 on the list for the Big 12. A decade will be a very long time to keep fans interested in watching UConn play in an even worse AAC. I suspect most will abandon ship and find something else to do.
 
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