OT: Celtics / Cavs megadeal

[the Q]

I think you may have misunderstood the question, name me a player within the last 10 years that had a noticeable decline (that wasn't primarily injury related). I didn't ask if a player had their best season at 29. KG still put up 22-13-4 on 53% for a horrible TWolves team as a 29 year old. Even if that might not have been his absolute best season, you wouldn't call that a noticeable decline from his prime phase either.

I guess we'd have to define noticeable, but KG clearly fell off from MVP level to simply very good.

I think part of the problem is you are equating decline with falling off a cliff rather than just no longer at peak value.

 

[NielsisGood]

I guess we'd have to define noticeable, but KG clearly fell off from MVP level to simply very good.

I think part of the problem is you are equating decline with falling off a cliff rather than just no longer at peak value.

I guess being 5th in win shares, 2nd in WS/48, and 2nd in VORP during his age 29 season is "simply very good"....


Did you just have a malfunction?

 

[the Q]

I guess being 5th in win shares, 2nd in WS/48, and 2nd in VORP during his age 29 season is "simply very good"....


Did you just have a malfunction?

Compare 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05 to 05-06 and 06-07.

There's a clear drop off in Win Shares, BPM and VORP.

 

[champs99and04]

J Smoove never made an all star team to my knowledge.

You're right on Smith.

You could argue Rondo, even though I don't think he declined so much as things changed and the league became more scoring-oriented from the point guard position.

I don't see any reason to expect Hayward to decline at 29, unless we're parsing decimal points. He'll be at his apex for the duration of that contract.

 

[NielsisGood]

Compare 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05 to 05-06 and 06-07.

There's a clear drop off in Win Shares, BPM and VORP.

Maybe if this were chess and you were talking about his individual elo rating trying to look at his stats in a vacuum would make sense. Even by the metrics you love so much, KG was like the 2nd or 3rd best player in the league during his age 29 season. The stats tell me that KG was still clearly in his prime at 29 and playing at an MVP level.

 

[NielsisGood]

You're right on Smith.

You could argue Rondo, even though I don't think he declined so much as things changed and the league became more scoring-oriented from the point guard position.

I don't see any reason to expect Hayward to decline at 29, unless we're parsing decimal points. He'll be at his apex for the duration of that contract.

Would agree that Rondo is more of a case that the league evolved away from his strengths.


Would think just about everyone would agree on Hayward. Unless you're Q, he apparently defines a player's prime by their singular best season as measured only by Sloan Conference approved analytics.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Gotta add in #3: Kyrie actually plays like the top 10 player level that Danny paid for.

Cause he's not even close to that yet.

I think you are obviously right in that Kyrie has to play like a top 10 player, obviously he's the only asset the Celtics acquired so from their side of the ledger his future performance is it.

Disagree that Kyrie isn't close to top-10, there is ample playoff evidence that Kyrie is a top-10 postseason performer, but his regular season play, stats and results are shakier. I'm also prone to waive the Brad Stevens magic wand at that, while also agreeing that the Celtics are likely to take a big step backwards during the regular season this year.

We'll find out about Kyrie for sure. Is he just a get buckets guy in key situations or can he sustain excellence over a season? Boston is a crucible kind of town and if Kyrie doesn't step up his game it can go bad quickly like it has for many overpaid Red Sox.

 

[the Q]

I think you are obviously right in that Kyrie has to play like a top 10 player, obviously he's the only asset the Celtics acquired so from their side of the ledger his future performance is it.

Disagree that Kyrie isn't close to top-10, there is ample playoff evidence that Kyrie is a top-10 postseason performer, but his regular season play, stats and results are shakier. I'm also prone to waive the Brad Stevens magic wand at that, while also agreeing that the Celtics are likely to take a big step backwards during the regular season this year.

We'll find out about Kyrie for sure. Is he just a get buckets guy in key situations or can he sustain excellence over a season? Boston is a crucible kind of town and if Kyrie doesn't step up his game it can go bad quickly like it has for many overpaid Red Sox.

He's closer to 30 right now and executives don't think he's a star. Please hold while I find this article I just read.

 

[the Q]

I think you are obviously right in that Kyrie has to play like a top 10 player, obviously he's the only asset the Celtics acquired so from their side of the ledger his future performance is it.

Disagree that Kyrie isn't close to top-10, there is ample playoff evidence that Kyrie is a top-10 postseason performer, but his regular season play, stats and results are shakier. I'm also prone to waive the Brad Stevens magic wand at that, while also agreeing that the Celtics are likely to take a big step backwards during the regular season this year.

We'll find out about Kyrie for sure. Is he just a get buckets guy in key situations or can he sustain excellence over a season? Boston is a crucible kind of town and if Kyrie doesn't step up his game it can go bad quickly like it has for many overpaid Red Sox.

Here it is: Is Kyrie a Franchise Star? NBA Insiders Doubt Irving Worth What Celtics Paid

 

[Dogdeacon]

Here it is: Is Kyrie a Franchise Star? NBA Insiders Doubt Irving Worth What Celtics Paid

Yeah I read that and the Lowe piece that argues the upside possibilities. The possibilities suggested by Lowe get to the key Kyrie question; is he James Harden in Houston = will thrive once in the right situation as a primary piece.

Closer to 30 means not top-20 and I'd like to see your list of 20 better players. Irving is definitely outside the elites of Harden, LeBron, Kawhi, Curry, Westbrook & Durant but after that I don't think there are many guys who you can assert are absolutely better than Kyrie. And can you name 10 better offensive players?

 

[the Q]

Yeah I read that and the Lowe piece that argues the upside possibilities. The possibilities suggested by Lowe get to the key Kyrie question; is he James Harden in Houston = will thrive once in the right situation as a primary piece.

Closer to 30 means not top-20 and I'd like to see your list of 20 better players. Irving is definitely outside the elites of Harden, LeBron, Kawhi, Curry, Westbrook & Durant but after that I don't think there are many guys who you can assert are absolutely better than Kyrie. And can you name 10 better offensive players?

Top 10 offensive player, but also one of the 10 worst defenders in the league

 

[polycom]

This Kyrie press conference is something else. Shade being thrown all over the place

 

[Com'rGordon]

Kyrie is the second best scorer in the NBA besides kevin durant. Celtics gave alot but are getting alot. Not a bad trade at all.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Top 10 offensive player, but also one of the 10 worst defenders in the league

I understand that's hyperbole and among starters, stars. But even then on that list is Kyrie, Harden, Isaiah, Carmelo etc... and were aren't talking about NBA players like Korver, MMiller or younger Bodgonavich, DeAngelo Russell, Reggie Jackson who are mediocre offensively and very bad defenders.

 

[the Q]

I understand that's hyperbole and among starters, stars. But even then on that list is Kyrie, Harden, Isaiah, Carmelo etc... and were aren't talking about NBA players like Korver, MMiller or younger Bodgonavich, DeAngelo Russell, Reggie Jackson who are mediocre offensively and very bad defenders.

No, him and Isaiah are both on that list.

 

[the Q]

This Kyrie press conference is something else. Shade being thrown all over the place

I don't Kyrie's point.

Lebron being on the course isn't why he's a selfish gunner obsessed with and 1 style plays rather than simple more efficient plays, nor is it why he can't even spell (much less play) defense.

 

[NielsisGood]

I don't Kyrie's point.

Lebron being on the course isn't why he's a selfish gunner obsessed with and 1 style plays rather than simple more efficient plays, nor is it why he can't even spell (much less play) defense.

You wanna cite Lowe for that jab or just gonna try to pass it off as your own?

 

[the Q]

You wanna cite Lowe for that jab or just gonna try to pass it off as your own?

Ive been critical of this deal since before that post came out.

weak sauce dude.

 

[NielsisGood]

Ive been critical of this deal since before that post came out.

weak sauce dude.

Weak sauce as in your claiming that KG wasn't an MVP level player during his age 29 season when the advanced metrics you live and breathe on had him pegged as something like the 2nd or 3rd best player in the league that year?


Guess I'd resort to copy/pasting other people's statements too if my own opinions were that wrong.

 

[the Q]

Weak sauce as in your claiming that KG wasn't an MVP level player during his age 29 season when the advanced metrics you live and breathe on had him pegged as something like the 2nd or 3rd best player in the league that year?


Guess I'd resort to copy/pasting other people's statements too if my own opinions were that wrong.

I showed you all the numbers you needed. you wanna ignore them, that's your deal.

weak personal attack dude

 

[NielsisGood]

I showed you all the numbers you needed. you wanna ignore them, that's your deal.

weak personal attack dude

You made a general statement saying that KG was not an MVP level player that year, I showed that KG was a top 3 player in the league that year. You did not respond.


Guess you're just waiting for the next Lowe or KOC column about the topic to know what to say?

 

[the Q]

You made a general statement saying that KG was not an MVP level player that year, I showed that KG was a top 3 player in the league that year. You did not respond.


Guess you're just waiting for the next Lowe or KOC column about the topic to know what to say?

He dropped 2 VORP, 2 BPM and like 1.2 WS at 29 and never came close to those numbers again.

It just shows how good he was that he could fall that far. And then he started his decline with a small bump his first year in boston with Doc and Thibs (aka far better coaching that he ever had in his entire career). But again, no where near his pre 29 levels.

As an example VORP for RW this was year 12.4, PM was 15.6 by RWB and WS lead by harden with 15.

KGs year 28 year was 9.3, 9.7 and 16.1 (same order as above)

KG in his first year of decline (and the one you're whining about) was 7.4, 7.9 and 14.9 (in same order as above). So he was still close in one area, but WAY off in the other 2. Or are you going to say that's not a decline?

The year after that (last year in Minny) he was 5.2, 5.0 and 10.7

With Boston 5.5, 7.4, 12.9. Small bounce back, but again, players don't grow and decline in perfect linear, this was also the best NBA team of the modern era and had both Doc and Thibs.

year after 2.7, 4.0, 7.1 playing about 3/4 of a season (57 games). clearly declining

year after: 2.4, 2.6, 7.3

You gonna try and argue he's not in decline?

ps just cause you don't like narrative form doesn't mean i didn't hit it.

 

[Walker11]

Here are my original thoughts on Kyrie:

Irving plays no defense, he's a chucker, and Cleveland has been a disaster whenever Irving has had to play without James. Teams have long had concerns about his night life. He does not profile as the best player on a championship team.

That said, Irving has a chance to become a foundational offensive superstar. He can hit pull-up 3s off the pick-and-roll, and Brad Stevens would encourage him to shoot more of them; he launched "just" 3.5 of those suckers per game last season, a hair below Mike Conley and Chris Paul. That number should be higher, even though Irving's accuracy on those shots -- the toughest shots in basketball -- has fluctuated wildly year-to-year.

Those shots draw double teams, and those double teams unlock everything else. If Irving trades in two or three shots like this every night for 3s and kickout passes, he immediately becomes a different player.

 

[auror]

Here are my original thoughts on Kyrie:

Irving plays no defense, he's a chucker, and Cleveland has been a disaster whenever Irving has had to play without James. Teams have long had concerns about his night life. He does not profile as the best player on a championship team.

That said, Irving has a chance to become a foundational offensive superstar. He can hit pull-up 3s off the pick-and-roll, and Brad Stevens would encourage him to shoot more of them; he launched "just" 3.5 of those suckers per game last season, a hair below Mike Conley and Chris Paul. That number should be higher, even though Irving's accuracy on those shots -- the toughest shots in basketball -- has fluctuated wildly year-to-year.

Those shots draw double teams, and those double teams unlock everything else. If Irving trades in two or three shots like this every night for 3s and kickout passes, he immediately becomes a different player.

Quit plagirizing @the Q

 

[NielsisGood]

He dropped 2 VORP, 2 BPM and like 1.2 WS at 29 and never came close to those numbers again.

It just shows how good he was that he could fall that far. And then he started his decline with a small bump his first year in boston with Doc and Thibs (aka far better coaching that he ever had in his entire career). But again, no where near his pre 29 levels.

As an example VORP for RW this was year 12.4, PM was 15.6 by RWB and WS lead by harden with 15.

KGs year 28 year was 9.3, 9.7 and 16.1 (same order as above)

KG in his first year of decline (and the one you're whining about) was 7.4, 7.9 and 14.9 (in same order as above). So he was still close in one area, but WAY off in the other 2. Or are you going to say that's not a decline?

The year after that (last year in Minny) he was 5.2, 5.0 and 10.7

With Boston 5.5, 7.4, 12.9. Small bounce back, but again, players don't grow and decline in perfect linear, this was also the best NBA team of the modern era and had both Doc and Thibs.

year after 2.7, 4.0, 7.1 playing about 3/4 of a season (57 games). clearly declining

year after: 2.4, 2.6, 7.3

You gonna try and argue he's not in decline?

ps just cause you don't like narrative form doesn't mean i didn't hit it.

You didn't "hit it" though. The majority of your post is talking about his age 30 and beyond seasons. What I was contesting was your claim that his age 29 season was post prime when that is not the case, regardless of what stat or metric used to define. His traditional stats were still in line with his prime numbers, as were the advanced metrics.


Arguing that a guy was past his prime in a season which he was still a top 3 player in the league by metrics is some JSM level idiocy.