Can we sneak into a bye in BET?

[Hungryhusky99]

We're 3-8 in our last 11 against the spread and 2 of those covers are against reeling Butler, who has dropped 40 KenPom spots since we beat them the first time. Our strong margin of victory in prior games is masking our actual game to game quality, especially against good teams. Whether or not we're a favorite is pretty irrelevant to the outcome at this point.

That and we haven't won at Nova in a decade.

I get that but you have to be pretty down on us to be viewing both of those as losses. And not winning at Nova for a decade is probably even more irrelevant than any spread- Best UConn team in ten years against by far the worst Nova team, without Jay.

 

[August_West]

I get that but you have to be pretty down on us to be viewing both of those as losses. And not winning at Nova for a decade is probably even more irrelevant than any spread- Best UConn team in ten years against by far the worst Nova team, without Jay.

According to big east standings we arent the best UConn team in 1 year.

 

[Hungryhusky99]

According to big east standings we arent the best UConn team in 1 year.

Top of the BE is also significantly better than it was last year. Can we agree on that?

 

[HuskyHawk]

The top 4 spots in the BET are locked up. They are in no particular end of season order,but 1-4 will be Xavier, Marquette, Providence, and Creighton. So that leaves only 5th place at best for us.

Right now we are playing on Wednesday as the 6th seed in a first round game.

We will be competing with Seton Hall (a game up on us) and Nova (a couple games back but with a game in hand). I've gotta figure the only 2 realistic options are a 5 or a 6. We have a better chance of being a 7 than a 4, but I don't care about 4 because 4 or 5 seed is the same game time.

Right now I think it is a coin flip we earn a bye. Don't know what to think, and I'm trying to plan my NYC dinner reservations for that week (namely 4 Charles Prime Rib, which is impossible to get a reservation at, they book 21 days in advance and you have to be luckier on resi than you would be trying to get Taylor swift tix on ticketmaster............ and we will need to make a decision in a couple weeks).


There is a tear in my eye typing this, because if you told me 31 days ago that our most likely league finish is 5-7 I would've called you Nelson Muntz. On 1/31 I was already locked into BET but was also tentatively making plans for Albany and MSG.


So I guess I'm asking for predictions on out BET seed.

So is this really true? UConn is likely favored in the final 8 games. Suspend any disbelief and assume we end up that way at 14-6.

Xavier plays @Marquette. Call that a L. @PC another L. Without Freemantle it could be worse.
Marquette has Xavier home, W. But UConn and Creighton away, two Ls.
PC has 3 losses now and could lose 3 more. 2 is more likely @ UConn and @ St. Johns
Creighton though, has 3 losses now and a gauntlet coming. Nova home and away, UConn home, @PC, @ St. Johns, Marquette home
Seton Hall has it even worse than Creighton.

Barring a collapse, Xavier and Marquette look like 1-2, PC looks like 3. UConn could still be 4.

 

[Billy Jack]

That and we haven't won at Nova in a decade.

This has to be one of the all time most ridiculous comments. Not winning at their place in a decade sounds like a lot . . . Until you realize that we’ve only played at their place 3 times in the past decade. We were in different leagues for most of the past decade, remember?

Oh, and Villanova has a different coach and mostly different players than we faced in those 3 losses. So, what exactly is the relevance of that comment.

And one other thing. Villanova’s best player has only been back for 2 games after missing the last 10 months with an Achilles tear. He’s just getting back into the flow of things but isn’t there yet, as evidenced by the fact that he’s shooting only 23% from the floor overall in those 2 games.

 

[Billy Jack]

The top 4 spots in the BET are locked up. They are in no particular end of season order,but 1-4 will be Xavier, Marquette, Providence, and Creighton. So that leaves only 5th place at best for us.

A week ago, I would have agreed with you, Austin. But the Freemantle injury changes everything for Xavier. A team can’t lose its best player for a month and not feel the effects. They were lucky to get away with a win over Providence last night.

I expected us to be neck & neck with PC for the 4th spot. Depending on how badly X stumbles, we could be fighting PC for that 3-seed and that last bye.

 

[XLCenterFan]

Very interesting calculation. I have tickets to the final so if I extrapolate out we will be playing on Saturday as well.

You are very good at mathematics and statistics. No way we don't make the finals.

 

[August_West]

Start making Arby's plans. No reservations needed.

The Arby's not far from garden on 8th Ave near times square closes at 9PM. Otherwise Id be there. Do you think you are talking to an amateur here who doesnt know and plan for Arby's rendezvous' in the city?

Im gettting old but Im not at early bird special stage yet, like you. I still eat dinner at 11 PM.

 

[August_West]

A week ago, I would have agreed with you, Austin. But the Freemantle injury changes everything for Xavier. A team can’t lose its best player for a month and not feel the effects. They were lucky to get away with a win over Providence last night.

I expected us to be neck & neck with PC for the 4th spot. Depending on how badly X stumbles, we could be fighting PC for that 3-seed and that last bye.

They just beat the 2nd best team in the league without him during the first game he was out, with zero time to adjust. Xavier will be fine.

Ill bet you 50 dollars right now, to a UConn charity that we are not fighting PC for 3rd place. Let's get that done here.

This is you.

And Freemantle is like the 4th best player on that squad. LOLOLOLOL!

 

[Billy Jack]

Here’s one man’s best guess for how the teams finish at the end of the regular schedule. I’ve gone through the schedule game by game and have tried to account for the loss of Freemantle at Xavier and the return of Justin Moore at Villanova. With the caveat that many of these games are close & could go either way, here’s my best guess without doing tie breakers for seeding:
/
16-4 Creighton
16-4 Marquette
16-4 Providence
13-7 Xavier
12-8 UConn
11-9 Seton Hall
9-7 Villanova
6-10 Butler
6-10 St. John’s
4-16 DePaul
1-19 Georgetown

I’m probably wrong.

 

[uconnfan68]

The Arby's not far from garden on 8th Ave near times square closes at 9PM. Otherwise Id be there. Do you think you are talking to an amateur here who doesnt know and plan for Arby's rendezvous' in the city?

Im gettting old but Im not at early bird special stage yet, like you. I still eat dinner at 11 PM.

Keep going for all the red meat and you might not make it to my age.

 

[August_West]

Keep going for all the red meat and you might not make it to my age.

It will take a week for the coroner to pry the smile off my face though.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Here’s one man’s best guess for how the teams finish at the end of the regular schedule. I’ve gone through the schedule game by game and have tried to account for the loss of Freemantle at Xavier and the return of Justin Moore at Villanova. With the caveat that many of these games are close & could go either way, here’s my best guess without doing tie breakers for seeding:
/
16-4 Creighton
16-4 Marquette
16-4 Providence
13-7 Xavier
12-8 UConn
11-9 Seton Hall
9-7 Villanova
6-10 Butler
6-10 St. John’s
4-16 DePaul
1-19 Georgetown

I’m probably wrong.

Creighton? They have a brutal schedule coming up. I don't even think that's possible based on which teams play each other.

 

[storrsroars]

It will take a week for the coroner to pry the smile off my face though.

You should've lived in Westport when Mario's was still around.

 

[Billy Jack]

They just beat the 2nd best team in the league without him during the first game he was out, with zero time to adjust. Xavier will be fine.

Ill bet you 50 dollars right now, to a UConn charity that we are not fighting PC for 3rd place. Let's get that done here.

This is you.

And Freemantle is like the 4th best player on that squad. LOLOLOLOL!

You thought last night was a strong game fir Xavier? Hmmm . . .

They were at home and blew a 14 point lead. They had to go to OT to pull it out. And frankly without some help from the refs, they don’t win that game. They were very fortunate to walk away with a win.t

As for Providence being the 2nd best team in the league, no one has them ranked that way and they aren’t even 2nd in the standings with an unbalanced schedule.

As for Freemantle being the 4th best player on Xavier, you’re going to have to explain that to me. He’s their leading rebounder, second in scoring, leads the team in both FG% and 3-point %, and is 3rd in both assists & steals.

 

[Billy Jack]

Creighton? They have a brutal schedule coming up. I don't even think that's possible based on which teams play each other.

What games do you expect them to lose?

 

[August_West]

They were at home and blew a 14 point lead. They had to go to OT to pull it out.

I think Providence is VERY strong. That was a big game. Have you watched them this year? the erase EVERY teams 2nd half leads. They are the most composed 2nd half team Ive seen this year What you were watching last night (if you watched) between those 2 teams was the cream of the Big East. You can put Marquette almost right there too.

 

[August_West]

As for Freemantle being the 4th best player on Xavier, you’re going to have to explain that to me. He’s their leading rebounder, second in scoring, leads the team in both FG% and 3-point %, and is 3rd in both assists & steals.

Freemantle is a very nice player. Boum, Nunge,and Jones are all more vital to that team, and the outstanding play of Jerome Hunter this year takes a ton of sting out of Freemantles injury,

 

[XLCenterFan]

I think Providence is VERY strong. That was a big game. Have you watched them this year? the erase EVERY teams 2nd half leads. They are the most composed 2nd half team Ive seen this year What you were watching last night (if you watched) was the cream of the Big East. You can put Marquette almost right there too.

I watched the whole game. Loved how Boum bricked everything, yet he missed nothing at Gampel the other night. It's like X only really shows up vs. us. Refs were trash. They missed so many fouls/travels/timeout calls, and they were constantly making makeup calls. When kids have to rely on makeup calls, they don't know how to play. I am shocked that we haven't beaten either of these teams. Are they good? Yes. Great? No. So much better than us? No way. Oh, and X fans stink. We have the best home court in the BE. You know my standard lets-get-rowdy-at-home thread is coming.

 

[August_West]

I watched the whole game. Loved how Boum bricked everything, yet he missed nothing at Gampel the other night. It's like X only really shows up vs. us. Refs were trash. They missed so many fouls/travels/timeout calls, and they were constantly making makeup calls. When kids have to rely on makeup calls, they don't know how to play. I am shocked that we haven't beaten either of these teams. Are they good? Yes. Great? No. So much better than us? No way. Oh, and X fans stink. We have the best home court in the BE. You know my standard lets-get-rowdy-at-home thread is coming.

In league play you are what your record says you are.

 

[Billy Jack]

I think Providence is VERY strong. That was a big game. Have you watched them this year? the erase EVERY teams 2nd half leads. They are the most composed 2nd half team Ive seen this year What you were watching last night (if you watched) between those 2 teams was the cream of the Big East. You can put Marquette almost right there too.

I have a son-in-law who went to Providence, so we have a little family rivalry going, and yeah, I’ve watched a lot of Providence games. And I know what the Friars are capable of. But this was on Xavier’s home court!

I also know that this is the same Xavier team that blew a 17 point game against us.

 

[Billy Jack]

Freemantle is a very nice player. Boum, Nunge,and Jones are all more vital to that team, and the outstanding play of Jerome Hunter this year takes a ton of sting out of Freemantles injury,

They’re not a team that depends on one or two players. They’re a 5-man team and they’re all vital. Fremantle is probably the most well rounded of the bunch. He does almost everything well.

Sure, Hunter has been playing very well, but how does it take the sting out of Freemantle’s loss when you’ve just shortened your bench? Losing Freemantle will hurt them a lot.

 

[Billy Jack]

I watched the whole game. Loved how Boum bricked everything, yet he missed nothing at Gampel the other night. It's like X only really shows up vs. us. Refs were trash. They missed so many fouls/travels/timeout calls, and they were constantly making makeup calls. When kids have to rely on makeup calls, they don't know how to play. I am shocked that we haven't beaten either of these teams. Are they good? Yes. Great? No. So much better than us? No way. Oh, and X fans stink. We have the best home court in the BE. You know my standard lets-get-rowdy-at-home thread is coming.

How did an 88% FT shooter brick that critical FT late in the game on the front end of a 1 and 1? Blum almost cost them the game with that miss.

 

[Billy Jack]

In league play you are what your record says you are.

Only when the schedule evens out.

 

[August_West]

They’re not a team that depends on one or two players. They’re a 5-man team and they’re all vital. Fremantle is probably the most well rounded of the bunch. He does almost everything well.

Sure, Hunter has been playing very well, but how does it take the sting out of Freemantle’s loss when you’ve just shortened your bench? Losing Freemantle will hurt them a lot.

Somehow we were 14-0 without Samson Johnson . Go figure.