California state university system cancels fall classes on campus

[superjohn]

it’s a bold move, cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.
Hope it does. Many won’t open. ( see Georgia) and the fear right now is too fresh.

But it was always going to happen. It's why our lockdown was never tenable. I always expected the shutdown to be until June 1st. You don't shut things down and pick winners and losers (all big box stores stay open and get money, mom and pops shutdown and get shafted.)

You don't tell people they're shutting down for 2 weeks and then turn 2 weeks into 5 months. Of course people are going to freak out. I think some states are opening up too quickly but it's totally unsurprising. If Pritzker is planning on keeping thing sshutdown in the state into August like he's hinted at, things will start getting ugly.

 

[auggie22]

I don’t have their testing info. The trouble with acceptable compromises is they they are acceptable usually to people not directly impacted by the illness. I don’t think Sweden mandated work, not sure, but they did expect social distancing and apparently they don’t have a population full of people who melt because they are asked to sacrifice a teeny bit of personal freedom. They also have 10 million total people. We have several urban metro areas with many more than that, a big minority population that seems to be prone to more serious consequences. They are betting on herd immunity. We’ll see if that happens there or here.

Also note that suggesting we close the economy down for as long as necessary to contain the virus and protect the vulnerable is also an acceptable compromise to some but not everyone. There is no way forward without risks - the people worried about their jobs are no less righteous than the people worried about their lives.

 

[Hi-Low]

Well that is pretty political. I happen to think the outcome wouldn’t be overly different no matter who is in charge. Do I think our response has been good? Not really. But what would your ideal leader have done differently? And please don’t say more testing because that’s far easier said than done. There is also a supply chain issue. We can’t just produce endless tests on demand.

I also happen to think the governors should be leading the charge, with the help of the federal government. It seems the governors aren’t taking any responsibility on the outbreak and the response, when in reality it’s largely their responsibility to do both.

So if we were invaded by Russia the Governors would coordinate the response? I think the Governors in the northeast are doing pretty well but the Federal govt has the resources and money to coordinate so the Governors can execute. We wasted Feb and early March, just a fact....the Feds wished it away and the CDC blew the first test regimen and we refused outside tests from other countries. If we had been more aggressive and successful in Feb our deaths would be much lower. So yes a better leader may have put us in a better place.

 

[JimHurley]

So if we were invaded by Russia the Governors would coordinate the response? I think the Governors in the northeast are doing pretty well but the Federal govt has the resources and money to coordinate so the Governors can execute. We wasted Feb and early March, just a fact....the Feds wished it away and the CDC blew the first test regimen and we refused outside tests from other countries. If we had been more aggressive and successful in Feb our deaths would be much lower. So yes a better leader may have put us in a better place.

Um, a virus and an invasion are two completely different things. Are you saying the states should never lead the charge in any scenario? The governors bear a lot of responsibility, and not only where they decide they want to be held accountable. Also, most Northeast governors have done an absolutely terrible job. Forcing nursing homes to take coronavirus patients? They couldn’t have handled it much worse. NY and PA have had the worst responses of the northeast states.

 

[cohenzone]

Also note that suggesting we close the economy down for as long as necessary to contain the virus and protect the vulnerable is also an acceptable compromise to some but not everyone. There is no way forward without risks - the people worried about their jobs are no less righteous than the people worried about their lives.

The point is, there is no clear cut easy. answer. The president is properly concerned about the economy. One gets the idea, though, that his concern about the economy relative to the politically inconvenient advice of pandemic medical and science experts , is to try and wish the virus away like some annoying fly and shoot the messengers so they aren’t around to annoy him anymore. One suspects that re-election is the gentleman’s motivation. If the medical experts are close to being right, we are damned if we do or don’t no matter what we do.

Until we know that this virus can be controlled and/or that herd immunity occurs, we won’t know if a rush to reopen is a good or bad move long term for the economy. I know we have millions of people who think they are immune to the virus to the extent that wearing a mask or distancing is an incredible violation of their rights. That attitude seems to make controlling this sucker harder than maybe it should be. I’m pretty sure the medical experts are under a lot of pressure to help the politicians, but not at the expense of providing the best medical advice they can. All I’m sure of is that contagion experts know contagion way better than any politician or former real estate developer.

 

[ctchamps]

South Korea uses cellphone data to trace where an infected person has been, and then broadcasts it (without names) so others will know if they may have come in contact. They also use an app that tracks a persons phone to insure that he isn’t breaking quarantine. Although the published data doesn't include names there are cases where people have connected dots, and also businesses where people have been lose business despite cleaning and disinfecting done by the state.

How do you think Americans would respond to such "virtuous surveillance"?

South Korea uses cellphone data to trace where an infected person has been, and then broadcasts it (without names) so others will know if they may have come in contact. They also use an app that tracks a persons phone to insure that he isn’t breaking quarantine. Although the published data doesn't include names there are cases where people have connected dots, and also businesses where people have been lose business despite cleaning and disinfecting done by the state.

How do you think Americans would respond to such "virtuous surveillance"?

”Give me liberty, or give me death?”

 

[ctchamps]

Supreme Court of Wisconsin just struck down the stay at home order from the Governor, all restaurants and bars can open immediately.

It's pretty obvious this was always going to happen around the country.

Thought it was a ruling against the state health agency making it a state rule. You have a link that indicates it was otherwise.

 

[Towney007]

But it was always going to happen. It's why our lockdown was never tenable. I always expected the shutdown to be until June 1st. You don't shut things down and pick winners and losers (all big box stores stay open and get money, mom and pops shutdown and get shafted.)

You don't tell people they're shutting down for 2 weeks and then turn 2 weeks into 5 months. Of course people are going to freak out. I think some states are opening up too quickly but it's totally unsurprising. If Pritzker is planning on keeping thing sshutdown in the state into August like he's hinted at, things will start getting ugly.

Yeah I agree w/ most of this. I don't get people that think this was going to end before June. Every chart everywhere had us ramping back up around early to mid June, and that seemed optimistic to me. And i'm a pretty hard-line supporter of us doing this as long as it's sustainable. But I do that understanding that this isn't a solution by any means, whatsoever and just in terms of communicating to the public, here; the idea with the lockdown is that we were going to do this to flatten the curve and make it more manageable for hospitals so that we could treat it more effectively over the long-run; understanding that a vaccine was way far off in the future and that we'd likely incur spikes over the next few years. Never at any, one point - was this ever 'shut everything down until we find a cure.' Those are two entirely different things - and I feel like like a lot of the rhetoric being flung back and forth has sorta lullabied pro-lockdown leaders into policy positions that support more of a 'we're doing this until we're cured' as opposed to what the original intent was.

The idea that extended lockdown is even possible as a form of sustainable policy - to me - is a non-starter. Potentially catastrophic damage and civil unrest are baked into it. Humans are top of the food chain because we work together to accomplish a variety of tasks - from food, hunting, killing, shopping, playing, you name it... We're social animals. This idea that people are going to miraculously kick 100 million years of instinctive and learned human behavior overnight because some scientists and bureaucrats have some peer reviewed research papers is 100% JUST as bonkers and unrealistic as thinking we should open the economy right this second.

 

[auggie22]

The point is, there is no clear cut easy. answer. The president is properly concerned about the economy. One gets the idea, though, that his concern about the economy relative to the politically inconvenient advice of pandemic medical and science experts , is to try and wish the virus away like some annoying fly and shoot the messengers so they aren’t around to annoy him anymore. One suspects that re-election is the gentleman’s motivation. If the medical experts are close to being right, we are damned if we do or don’t no matter what we do.

Until we know that this virus can be controlled and/or that herd immunity occurs, we won’t know if a rush to reopen is a good or bad move long term for the economy. I know we have millions of people who think they are immune to the virus to the extent that wearing a mask or distancing is an incredible violation of their rights. That attitude seems to make controlling this sucker harder than maybe it should be. I’m pretty sure the medical experts are under a lot of pressure to help the politicians, but not at the expense of providing the best medical advice they can. All I’m sure of is that contagion experts know contagion way better than any politician or former real estate developer.

Very true. But equally true is that the medical experts likely know even less than us of the economic implications of their recommendations. Their job is to provide expert medical advice. And while economists provide theirs, it is the politicians who will make the hard call on the trade offs. There are many posting on this board who seem to think that either their will be no economic toll, or no trade off to make.

The politicians should be making the call, not the medical experts. That is the way that it should be.

 

[GHSWolverines]

Yeah it pretty much sucks and people learn differently and if you've been thrust into this as a teacher it really sucks. It's a totally different teaching conversation. There's an article in the journal (maybe) that talks about how colleges are investing in retraining professors to teach online I think USF is allocating $5M to do it.

Much of higher ed has dismissed it as inferior for too long and the category has to adapt. There are purely online programs for major universities, I think even Yale has one or more, I forget the department(s) - this is going to shift the conversation around online delivery in higher ed and schools that find way to deliver programs in an online and in-person format will win. I personally think it's inferior as so much of college is the outside of classroom experience that helps shape world view and provides people with new perspectives and that is lost in online delivery.

It would be less expensive, but graduates would likely be less prepared for real life.

Absolutely. On line learning has been around since the late 90's and has slowly increased in popularity but I do question its merits. I am not proud of it but I remember a cousin of my wife was taking an online class and needed a high 90 on the final exam to pass the course with a D-. I reluctantly helped and this person received a D-.
Online classes IMO provide 2 things - convenience and cost. I doubt that colleges and Universities who go online in the fall will reduce costs. Especially the private schools. I have a daughter who will be entering her senior year in college. She HATED this type of learning. Some of her professors altered the curriculum because this format. Pay all this money to be short changed.
I teach at the high school level. It has been a challenge for myself as well as my students. Try getting across to students who are unmotivated to begin with or have IEP's (individual education plans) with no personal contact! I pray administration is planning a comprehensive plan for the youth of our society to open schools in some form. Otherwise they will be further behind.

 

[cohenzone]

Very true. But equally true is that the medical experts likely know even less than us of the economic implications of their recommendations. Their job is to provide expert medical advice. And while economists provide theirs, it is the politicians who will make the hard call on the trade offs. There are many posting on this board who seem to think that either their will be no economic toll, or no trade off to make.

The politicians should be making the call, not the medical experts. That is the way that it should be.

As in all medical situations, doctors can only recommend. Of course the politicians will decide. But getting pissed at a public health official for giving the public an inconvenient medical opinion is kinda dumb. If it turns out opening against medical advice is a disaster, guess who won’t accept responsibility.

 

[auggie22]

As in all medical situations, doctors can only recommend. Of course the politicians will decide. But getting pissed at a public health official for giving the public an inconvenient medical opinion is kinda dumb. If it turns out opening against medical advice is a disaster, guess who won’t accept responsibility.

The person in question is a poor communicator, an , and not nearly as smart as he thinks. But partisans have set up a no win situation such that regardless of which way this plays out, the storyline is going to be that he screwed up. The message from the very beginning should have been that we have a Sophie’s choice to make and that there are going to be casualties on either side, demonstrate a careful consideration is under way, leverage all of the expertise that this country has, and then support a decision with facts. He doesn’t do thoughtful well but the irony is opening up should be an easy case to make. He left this too open ended at the start and as such a decision to open will seem that it is out of desperation and against all advice
Regardless, it is an election year and there is just no way he was going to have the media on his side.

 

[NJHusky]

I think my math is fine thanks. Read my post again. I never mentioned Denmark so that's your reading issue, not my math issue. May 12th Sweden had 57 deaths compared to a combined 8 for Finland and Norway. Last time I checked 8x7=56, no? Total deaths through Tuesday are 3,313 to 503 (factor of 6.6 higher). I think the Finland + Norway comparison is better since Sweden is sandwiched right in between versus separated by a body of water. Also, Finland + Norway have 11M people combined compared to 10M in Sweden. Pretty close. If you are going to use Denmark + Finland instead you at least need to normalize for the fairly large population difference, no? Math fact mic drop.

I've read about the issue with the elderly in Sweden. My concern is that all countries are seeing large percentages of deaths in senior living. Are Finland and Norway outliers? If they also had 50% deaths in this community it wouldn't change the ratios, right?

I'm sensing aggression and I'm not sure where its coming from. We're all on the same team here. I want the best possible outcome and simply posted data with no bias or ulterior motive and you seemed to come at me for some reason. Believe me, I hope Sweden's approach works but the numbers are worrying at this point. As you said, we'll know more in a month or so.

My bad on the reading...too late at night...apologies

 

[Palatine]

I don’t know which of those 5 points made me laugh harder. Thank you.

I notice you couldn't refute any of my points. And, of course, you still can't.

Your points are not scientific or even rational. It's just more doomsday nonsense.

 

[UConnMike04]

My friend getting married in Vermont on July 4th still assumes he and his fiancée are having the wedding of his dreams and there will be no restrictions and everything is hunky dory. Poor guy isn’t having that wedding.

My wife’s best friend was supposed to get married 6/6 in VT. This is a small, 25 person wedding and it was canceled yesterday. VT isn’t letting any out of staters stay in any hotels, bed and breakfasts, inns, etc until earliest 6/15 without quarantining for 14 days and also restaurants are limited to 10 people or less. Their governor supposedly said this may be extended into mid-July. He’s not having that wedding. My wife’s friend, bc the wedding is so small, is eloping in front of their parents only and having a party next summer to celebrate.

On a side note, I posted a month ago in the big coronavirus thread about how it affects your daily life, that I had symptoms and I’m healthy, 38 and it knocked me on my ass for about two weeks and was never tested. I went for a blood test last week and got my results and I have the antibodies. My doctor (whose also an epidemiologist) said I have at least 1-2 years immunity for what that’s worth but to still use caution in public. My wife is getting tested tomorrow and we think she may have been asymptomatic as she lived with me for those couple of weeks and never had any symptoms.

I know about 7 or 8 people that had mild or no symptoms in Feb or March that also got tested and tested positive for antibodies. I don’t think we will ever know the true death rate and who truly had this and was either asymptomatic or never tested. I do believe it’s probably close to 40% of the population in the tri-state area which would be good bc we’d be much closer to herd immunity and also would very much lessen a second or third wave.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

My wife’s best friend was supposed to get married 6/6 in VT. This is a small, 25 person wedding and it was canceled yesterday. VT isn’t letting any out of staters stay in any hotels, bed and breakfasts, inns, etc until earliest 6/15 without quarantining for 14 days and also restaurants are limited to 10 people or less. Their governor supposedly said this may be extended into mid-July. He’s not having that wedding. My wife’s friend, bc the wedding is so small, is eloping in front of their parents only and having a party next summer to celebrate.

On a side note, I posted a month ago in the big coronavirus thread about how it affects your daily life, that I had symptoms and I’m healthy, 38 and it knocked me on my ass for about two weeks and was never tested. I went for a blood test last week and got my results and I have the antibodies. My doctor (whose also an epidemiologist) said I have at least 1-2 years immunity for what that’s worth but to still use caution in public. My wife is getting tested tomorrow and we think she may have been asymptomatic as she lived with me for those couple of weeks and never had any symptoms.

I know about 7 or 8 people that had mild or no symptoms in Feb or March that also got tested and tested positive for antibodies. I don’t think we will ever know the true death rate and who truly had this and was either asymptomatic or never tested. I do believe it’s probably close to 40% of the population in the tri-state area which would be good bc we’d be much closer to herd immunity and also would very much lessen a second or third wave.

Yeah he’s just looking at that 6/15 housing date and thinking he’s fine

 

[Peacefrog]

"On a side note, I posted a month ago in the big coronavirus thread about how it affects your daily life, that I had symptoms and I’m healthy, 38 and it knocked me on my ass for about two weeks and was never tested. I went for a blood test last week and got my results and I have the antibodies. My doctor (whose also an epidemiologist) said I have at least 1-2 years immunity for what that’s worth but to still use caution in public. My wife is getting tested tomorrow and we think she may have been asymptomatic as she lived with me for those couple of weeks and never had any symptoms. "

I would say that is worth a crap-ton! If true this would be huge in terms of attaining herd immunity. This is the first I have heard of any doctor making such a statement with this level of conviction. I wonder on what basis he is asserting this.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

Herd immunity is just not going to happen, unfortunately.

It is a mathematical certainty that it will happen. The length of time and number of deaths may be up for debate, but coronavirus will not result in human extinction.

 

[auggie22]

"On a side note, I posted a month ago in the big coronavirus thread about how it affects your daily life, that I had symptoms and I’m healthy, 38 and it knocked me on my ass for about two weeks and was never tested. I went for a blood test last week and got my results and I have the antibodies. My doctor (whose also an epidemiologist) said I have at least 1-2 years immunity for what that’s worth but to still use caution in public. My wife is getting tested tomorrow and we think she may have been asymptomatic as she lived with me for those couple of weeks and never had any symptoms. "

I would say that is worth a crap-ton! If true this would be huge in terms of attaining herd immunity. This is the first I have heard of any doctor making such a statement with this level of conviction. I wonder on what basis he is asserting this.

Just read a scientific paper on this and it jibes with what you heard. Nothing is ever definitive except in retrospect though there is every indication that immunity could last for 1-3 years and even longer in the T cells. I’ll add a link as soon as I find it.

 

[UConnMike04]

Just read a scientific paper on this and it jibes with what you heard. Nothing is ever definitive except in retrospect though there is every indication that immunity could last for 1-3 years and even longer in the T cells. I’ll add a link as soon as I find it.

Exactly, and I shouldn’t be putting this hear but I trust you guys. I asked him why he is so certain given they are saying there is no sure way of telling. He said two points: 1) Latest research is showing that based on similar viruses and then he got all scientific, and 2). He said pay attention to the wording. They are saying publicly the “extent of immunity is unknown” simply because they don’t know if it’s up to 1 year, 3 years or forever like chicken pox. He said it’s being misunderstood in the media the way the wording is portrayed. He also said, and this was interesting, that they aren’t publicly acknowledging this yet from people like Fauci, etc bc they want to avoid everyone who THINKS they had it but in reality didn’t have it from going out into the public and spreading it when they never had it but just had a bad cold, flu, etc. Again, he told me this more in privacy because I’ve know him for 25 years as my doctor but I believe him.

 

[huskymedic]

Exactly, and I shouldn’t be putting this hear but I trust you guys. I asked him why he is so certain given they are saying there is no sure way of telling. He said two points: 1) Latest research is showing that based on similar viruses and then he got all scientific, and 2). He said pay attention to the wording. They are saying publicly the “extent of immunity is unknown” simply because they don’t know if it’s up to 1 year, 3 years or forever like chicken pox. He said it’s being misunderstood in the media the way the wording is portrayed. He also said, and this was interesting, that they aren’t publicly acknowledging this yet from people like Fauci, etc bc they want to avoid everyone who THINKS they had it but in reality didn’t have it from going out into the public and spreading it when they never had it but just had a bad cold, flu, etc. Again, he told me this more in privacy because I’ve know him for 25 years as my doctor but I believe him.

Everyone is basing it on experience w/ previous SARS virus (not necessarily Covid-19)... proof will be down the road.

Coronavirus immunity, one of the great unknowns of COVID-19

In this painful journey through the pandemic there is a destination we want to reach as soon as possible:Coronavirus immunity

www.bbvaopenmind.com

 

[Hi-Low]

Um, a virus and an invasion are two completely different things. Are you saying the states should never lead the charge in any scenario? The governors bear a lot of responsibility, and not only where they decide they want to be held accountable. Also, most Northeast governors have done an absolutely terrible job. Forcing nursing homes to take coronavirus patients? They couldn’t have handled it much worse. NY and PA have had the worst responses of the northeast states.

Have northeast governors been perfect no of course not but they bore the brunt of this and they were at least willing to lead and make mistakes in the absence of real federal guidance....we pay the feds trillions in taxes to protect us, they have the resources if they are competent enough to use them.

State govts can't print money or order businesses to make products or empower the CDC & NIH only the feds can and they acted too late when it was very obvious we had a big problem.

Back to the original topic lets hope the Feds help come up with a real plan to open schools in the Fall and not just watch 50 "experiments" to see who fails and who succeeds.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Damn. I mean I love my kids, but I'd love to see them on a campus this fall and not living at home:

California cancels fall university classes as Fauci warns of reopening too soon

California's state university system, the largest in the United States, canceled classes on Tuesday for the fall semester because of the coronavirus, while Los Angeles County said its stay-at-home order was likely to be extended by three months.

www.reuters.com

Why would anybody bother to pay full tuition for this version of college education? I wouldn't. I think there will be a huge number of skip year kids. May daughter is a HS Jr. We are still hoping we can get some visits in.

 

[JimHurley]

Have northeast governors been perfect no of course not but they bore the brunt of this and they were at least willing to lead and make mistakes in the absence of real federal guidance....we pay the feds trillions in taxes to protect us, they have the resources if they are competent enough to use them.

State govts can't print money or order businesses to make products or empower the CDC & NIH only the feds can and they acted too late when it was very obvious we had a big problem.

Back to the original topic lets hope the Feds help come up with a real plan to open schools in the Fall and not just watch 50 "experiments" to see who fails and who succeeds.

The Northeast governors have done the worst job out of the entire country. They were willing to lead and make mistakes? Their mistake of forcing nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. Absolutely atrocious.

 

[JimHurley]

Why would anybody bother to pay full tuition for this version of college education? I wouldn't. I think there will be a huge number of skip year kids. May daughter is a HS Jr. We are still hoping we can get some visits in.

Yeah, if you pay that money for online college you have to be some kind of fool. That is why I said schools closed for the fall will fold. Kids aren't stupid enough to pay $50K to learn from their computer. Go to your local community college or take a gap year.