California state university system cancels fall classes on campus

[upstater]

It is a mathematical certainty that it will happen. The length of time and number of deaths may be up for debate, but coronavirus will not result in human extinction.

I didn't say it will result in extinction.

I really meant to say it won't come before a vaccine.

If the serology tests are correct, a very low % of the population has it. Either because it doesn't spread as easily as we once assumed or because social distancing has been very effective.

The very high levels required for her immunity wouldn't happen for a very long time. My mistake in the earlier post is in not acknowledging that herd immunity is also achieved through vaccination.

Sweden has had to totally rethink their approach because they are not going to get to herd immunity as fast as they had assumed.

 

[HooperScooper]

Why would anybody bother to pay full tuition for this version of college education? I wouldn't. I think there will be a huge number of skip year kids. May daughter is a HS Jr. We are still hoping we can get some visits in.

I hear you. My younger son will be a freshman next year at Hamilton College. He didn't choose a small liberal arts school to take on-line classes and live at home. That's the antithesis of why he chose Hamilton. And I'm not paying Hamilton's tuition rate to take on-line classes. My older son is a senior at Hamilton and he said the on-line classes were terribly boring and he advised us not to do it if Hamilton decides they can't have students back for the fall semester.

I did reach out to the school already and gave them that feedback. They have not made any decisions yet but they are making lots of contingency plans in case it's determined it's not safe to have students start in late August. I completely understand they have to make decisions that are in the best interests for the health of their students and faculty, but it's not what we signed up for and we may have to make a decision that is in our best interests. Such a PIA!

 

[upstater]

Are people buying computers? Buying cars? Taking vacations? Investing money? Economies are pretty complicated things. Your response does not explain how paying people’s salaries for a few months would protect our economy. What about the people who have jobs now but won’t in three or four months when the lack of spending forces businesses to close or retrench. Or 12 months from now when the vicious spiral continues?

The truth is layoffs are going to get much, much worse before they get better. The length of our mandated quarantine will determine how bad and for how long. By this time next year most of us could very well be out of jobs. Paying the unemployed their salary for a few months (or years) is not going to stop it.

Here's the thing. It's NOT paying the unemployed salary. It's paying the EMPLOYED salary. That's the key difference. The company gets the money for payroll.

Even the execs are made whole to a point.

This means that while abstract entities like corporations do not produce the same amount of revenue for a few months, very real living people are made whole without being fired. Corporations aren't people too--only their employees are. People are actually still buying computers, even cars, and investing. They are not taking vacations. But if you look at Europe post 2008, you'll see several countries that had even higher unemployment, even higher drops in GDP levels, and these countries stated growing again rapidly within a few years. There are other solutions, but they smell too much like socialism.

 

[upstater]

Or better yet colleges that are forced to come back to reality and charge tuition that isn’t 3x higher than inflation for the past 40 years.

Some facts to put this in perspective:

1. The average tuition in the USA is $7500 at publics.
2. 86% of the college market is in the publics.
3. The rise in tuition is almost wholly related to the drop in subsidy. If you started with $1k tuition in 1990 and you're charging $13k now, the 1,000% increase is a result of the $8k drop in subsidy per student.
4. Instead though, we are slashing education subsidies, so be prepared to see pubic tuition rise above that $7.5k average level.

Something to think about though, and I'm not really in favor of this, BUT--if we did decide to go tuition free like many countries in the first world, the amount it would take would not be that much at all.

The proposals I've seen require a state to pick up half the tab if the fed. gov't picks up the other half. If you multiply the amount of full-time students at publics nationwide (9m x $3750 tuition), the total would be $33b. If you decided that students must keep some skin in the game and pay, say, $2k in tuition, the total tab costs $24b a year.

This is not a super amount of money. It is less than double of what we spend on the National Parks system each year. It's 1/3rd of what we spend per student on kindergarten.

Again--I'm not sure I'm even in favor of this given that a significant amount of students (1/4?) are not invested in Higher Ed. even though they attend. But this is one way to look at the funding of it.

 

[upstater]

And your source?

The % required is so high that in hard hit towns and cities in countries like Italy, where serology testing has been done, the % of the population showing exposure is quite low (5%-15%). In Sweden, where they took hardly any precautions, exposure has also been pretty low. I think the Swedes assumed much greater transmissability.

 

[JimHurley]

I hear you. My younger son will be a freshman next year at Hamilton College. He didn't choose a small liberal arts school to take on-line classes and live at home. That's the antithesis of why he chose Hamilton. And I'm not paying Hamilton's tuition rate to take on-line classes. My older son is a senior at Hamilton and he said the on-line classes were terribly boring and he advised us not to do it if Hamilton decides they can't have students back for the fall semester.

I did reach out to the school already and gave them that feedback. They have not made any decisions yet but they are making lots of contingency plans in case it's determined it's not safe to have students start in late August. I completely understand they have to make decisions that are in the best interests for the health of their students and faculty, but it's not what we signed up for and we may have to make a decision that is in our best interests. Such a PIA!

Good for you. I hope more parents are like you and don't pay absurd tuition costs for fully online even if their kids want to. Online classes are painfully boring, and also a complete joke. You can look up the answers to everything. Quizzes, tests, homework, etc. Everything can be found online. And if you're paying $30,$40,$50K for an education where you just look everything up online to pass, well you're doing it wrong.

 

[Hi-Low]

The Northeast governors have done the worst job out of the entire country. They were willing to lead and make mistakes? Their mistake of forcing nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. Absolutely atrocious.

So you agree with my other points that the Federal response has been pathetic and certain very important things like money, defense prod act & CDC response can only be done by them?

Did all the governors make nursing homes accept Covid patients or just Cuomo & Jersey? What evidence are you citing that decision directly resulted in tens of thousands of deaths? I'm sure it increased the toll but to say every nursing home death is Cuomo's fault and that the virus wasn't already present in many nursing homes is a tad overstated on your part wouldn't you agree?

 

[JimHurley]

So you agree with my other points that the Federal response has been pathetic and certain very important things can only be done by them?

Did all the northeast governors make nursing homes accept Covid patients or just Cuomo & Jersey? What evidence are you citing that decision directly resulted in tens of thousands of deaths? I'm sure it increased the toll but to say every nursing home death is Cuomo's fault and that the virus wasn't already present in many nursing is a tad overstated on your part wouldn't you agree?

All the people saying the Federal response has been pathetic cannot tell me what they would do to make the response better. The answer I always hear is testing. Do you want the federal government to create infinite tests with a magic wand? Do you understand that these tests need to be produced and that there is a limit on how many can be produced? Tests are a finite resource just like everything else. It is not humanly possible to have a test available for every person in this country.

I believe NY, NJ, and PA forced nursing homes to take coronavirus patients. How much more evidence do you need to understand that resulted in a large number of deaths? Those who tested positive were sent to institutions that housed the most vulnerable people. Are you paying attention to what percent of deaths are coming from nursing homes? Yeah, that's because politicians' policies to bring people who had the virus there.

 

[Hi-Low]

All the people saying the Federal response has been pathetic cannot tell me what they would do.....

You're not big on reading, I said...The Feds have money, the Defense Production Act for PPE and test supplies shortages warned about in January, The CDC, the NIH, HHS...states are limited, if you can't see that I give up.

My sister is a hospital nurse in CT and was forced to wear the same mask all 14 hours a day that are meant for 1 patient use only. Nurses were given guidance by the feds to wear a bandana as a mask because of shortages...that is pathetic.

 

[Kenny11]

All the people saying the Federal response has been pathetic cannot tell me what they would do to make the response better. The answer I always hear is testing. Do you want the federal government to create infinite tests with a magic wand? Do you understand that these tests need to be produced and that there is a limit on how many can be produced? Tests are a finite resource just like everything else. It is not humanly possible to have a test available for every person in this country.

I believe NY, NJ, and PA forced nursing homes to take coronavirus patients. How much more evidence do you need to understand that resulted in a large number of deaths? Those who tested positive were sent to institutions that housed the most vulnerable people. Are you paying attention to what percent of deaths are coming from nursing homes? Yeah, that's because politicians' policies to bring people who had the virus there.

the US was warned in detail in December, in January, in February and the “president” and other leaders didn’t do anything but say its a hoax, downplay the dangers, contradict actual scientists and senators in the meetings shut their mouths and sold their stocks. Criticizing state responses is fine and probably justified but it’s impossible to defend the federal response. It’s been a complete disaster led by a half literate raging twitter addict in his 70s.

 

[JimHurley]

You're not big on reading, I said...The Feds have money, the Defense Production Act for PPE and test supplies shortages warned about in January, The CDC, the NIH, HHS...states are limited, if you can't see that I give up.

My sister is a hospital nurse in CT and was forced to wear the same mask all 14 hours a day that are meant for 1 patient use only. Nurses were given guidance by the feds to wear a bandana as a mask because of shortages...that is pathetic.

And I can see you're not big on supply side economics. Do you want the White House to enforce the Defense Protection Act on every company to produce PPE? Should we just shutdown all other industries and produce PPE? That just doesn't add up. To sufficiently test and isolate, we would need billions and billions of tests. The country has over 320,000,000 million people. How many tests should we produce to meet those needs? The answer is more than we could ever possibly make. Think feasibility before saying testing is the end all solution.

the US was warned in detail in December, in January, in February and the “president” and other leaders didn’t do anything but say its a hoax, downplay the dangers, contradict actual scientists and senators in the meetings shut their mouths and sold their stocks. Criticizing state responses is fine and probably justified but it’s impossible to defend the federal response. It’s been a complete disaster led by a half literate raging twitter addict in his 70s.

Yeah, never have I ever said the federal response was good. Not once. I'd argue it wouldn't be much different with a different leader, but it's still not good. Can you tell me the response would've been better with a different president? And how so? Before you say more testing, read my above post. There are problems at the top, but I wish people would realize the government is never an efficiently operating system no matter who is in charge. The corruption and inefficiency of the federal government is and has been mindblowingly obvious.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I didn't say it will result in extinction.

I really meant to say it won't come before a vaccine.

If the serology tests are correct, a very low % of the population has it. Either because it doesn't spread as easily as we once assumed or because social distancing has been very effective.

The very high levels required for her immunity wouldn't happen for a very long time. My mistake in the earlier post is in not acknowledging that herd immunity is also achieved through vaccination.

Sweden has had to totally rethink their approach because they are not going to get to herd immunity as fast as they had assumed.

Sweden isn't changing their approach except with respect to nursing homes. Other places are beginning to adopt their approach.

As for a vaccine, many are progressing. Do you know how many vaccines we have created for other coronaviruses? None. That would be zero.

So if you wait for a vaccine, that may mean waiting for as long as we all live.

 

[superjohn]

[/QUOTE]

the US was warned in detail in December, in January, in February and the “president” and other leaders didn’t do anything but say its a hoax, downplay the dangers, contradict actual scientists and senators in the meetings shut their mouths and sold their stocks. Criticizing state responses is fine and probably justified but it’s impossible to defend the federal response. It’s been a complete disaster led by a half literate raging twitter addict in his 70s.

The president has been a nightmare but so have the health "experts". We know how much our politicians suck but the health "experts" we've been told to listen to are just as inconsitent. Fauci has been all over the place with we should be far more concerned with the flu, masks are pointless...he says we could have a vaccine by January, then a few days later a vaccine could make the virus worse.

The CDC with their testing disaster, then there's the corrupt trainwreck The WHO who has taken the China gov't company line from the jump and then spent close to 2 months bashing Sweden only to turn around and say Sweden should be the model for countries going forward. They now come out and say the virus may never go away. These are the same people who said the virus wasn't transmissable three weeks after doctors in China said it was spreading all over Wuhan and people are dying.

What we do know, if you are elderly and have chronic health problems it's a deadly virus for you. If you are younger and don't have chonic health problems the risk of death is miniscule. Our policies should always be based around that. Instead everyone is dying in nursing homes. I'm not sure what the solution to that is but sending Covid patients to nursing homes is negligent and bordering on criminal. We always knew this virus targets the old and sick.

 

[superjohn]

Sweden isn't changing their approach except with respect to nursing homes. Other places are beginning to adopt their approach.

As for a vaccine, many are progressing. Do you know how many vaccines we have created for other coronaviruses? None. That would be zero.

So if you wait for a vaccine, that may mean waiting for as long as we all live.

The waiting on a vaccine thing is insane. I can't believe anyone ever entertained that and yet I still think some are entertaining that idea.

 

[JimHurley]

The waiting on a vaccine thing is insane. I can't believe anyone ever entertained that and yet I still think some are entertaining that idea.

The vaccine and waiting to "fully eradicate" the virus are both insane. There's a good chance neither happens. If that's the case are states that won't reopen just going to pay their citizens to sit at home the rest of their lives? Good grief.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The vaccine and waiting to "fully eradicate" the virus are both insane. There's a good chance neither happens. If that's the case are states that won't reopen just going to pay their citizens to sit at home the rest of their lives? Good grief.

We've had a vaccine for Measles since, what, the early 70s? (too lazy to look it up). Measles still isn't eradicated. In fact the only virus we have successfully eradicated in the wild is smallpox.

I will say this: we've never put this much effort into any one pathogen before. Not even close. So maybe we can pull this off. But we can't wait for that. Schools need to be open, those most at risk need to be protected and we all need to proceed with living, but with more caution than we previously exercised. Honestly, I'm slightly ashamed at how cavalier we've all been about influenza all these years.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

Vaccines don't completely eradicate a virus. They do drastically reduce the impact of the virus and in many cases completely protect against it for a period of time. That would be more than enough to return to "normal" life. The goal here can't be to wipe this off the face of the earth - it's to reduce its impact as much as possible so that if someone is infected, there's an effective way to treat it and enough immunity (via vaccine or exposure) to reduce its transmissibility.

While vaccines for other coronaviruses haven't been created, how many times did anyone try? There are only 7 according to the CDC: Coronavirus | Human Coronavirus Types | CDC

MERS and SARS-1 aren't prevalent enough to make a vaccine worthwhile. The others, as I understand them, aren't nearly significant enough to warrant the investment of time or money.

 

[I Bleed Blue]

 

[UconnU]

Hospitals at historically low volume(people afraid to even show up?). Approaching 40 million people out of work, every SBO I know is struggling to make payroll. Public opinion shifting fast against lockdown. If this continues into football season/new school year there will be widespread outrage. There needs to be some sort of weighted approach that includes basic economics and public opinion. The vast majority of people are smart enough to make proper healthcare decisions for themselves and their families. No one in my immediate family has any severe underlying conditions or is over 65. We’re smart enough to distance ourselves from others and wear masks when in public. Why should we continue to have our lives totally upended?

 

[HHusky]

Hey.....It's California!

 

[Rico444]

Early on, the "experts" told us the virus could survive on inert surfaces for hours and out in the sun for 30 minutes or more but now they tell us it will survive on surfaces for only a few minutes while in the sun it will only survive for 10 to 15 seconds.

Do you have a source for this?

 

[Palatine]

Some may find this interesting. It is a comparison "deaths per ten million starting at 10 deaths" for selected countries. The thick red line is Sweden. Did any of the geniuses in the White House Press Corps ever ask Dr. Fauci if there was a double blind study done on "lockdowns" as a treatment for virus mitigation?

 

[DB24MTN]

Why would anybody bother to pay full tuition for this version of college education? I wouldn't. I think there will be a huge number of skip year kids. May daughter is a HS Jr. We are still hoping we can get some visits in.

UConn student here. FWIW Can confirm I personally wont be taking classes in the fall if they are online, as with a number of my friends.

 

[JimHurley]

UConn student here. FWIW Can confirm I personally wont be taking classes in the fall if they are online, as with a number of my friends.

Smart man! I took 2 online classes in my UConn career and I wouldn’t pay 25% tuition to do a full semester of them. Complete joke.

 

[upstater]

Sweden isn't changing their approach except with respect to nursing homes. Other places are beginning to adopt their approach.

As for a vaccine, many are progressing. Do you know how many vaccines we have created for other coronaviruses? None. That would be zero.

So if you wait for a vaccine, that may mean waiting for as long as we all live.

I didn't say they were changing their approach. I said the architect of their approach pronounced it a failure.