California state university system cancels fall classes on campus

[cohenzone]

Very true. But equally true is that the medical experts likely know even less than us of the economic implications of their recommendations. Their job is to provide expert medical advice. And while economists provide theirs, it is the politicians who will make the hard call on the trade offs. There are many posting on this board who seem to think that either their will be no economic toll, or no trade off to make.

The politicians should be making the call, not the medical experts. That is the way that it should be.

As in all medical situations, doctors can only recommend. Of course the politicians will decide. But getting pissed at a public health official for giving the public an inconvenient medical opinion is kinda dumb. If it turns out opening against medical advice is a disaster, guess who won’t accept responsibility.

 

[auggie22]

As in all medical situations, doctors can only recommend. Of course the politicians will decide. But getting pissed at a public health official for giving the public an inconvenient medical opinion is kinda dumb. If it turns out opening against medical advice is a disaster, guess who won’t accept responsibility.

The person in question is a poor communicator, an , and not nearly as smart as he thinks. But partisans have set up a no win situation such that regardless of which way this plays out, the storyline is going to be that he screwed up. The message from the very beginning should have been that we have a Sophie’s choice to make and that there are going to be casualties on either side, demonstrate a careful consideration is under way, leverage all of the expertise that this country has, and then support a decision with facts. He doesn’t do thoughtful well but the irony is opening up should be an easy case to make. He left this too open ended at the start and as such a decision to open will seem that it is out of desperation and against all advice
Regardless, it is an election year and there is just no way he was going to have the media on his side.

 

[NJHusky]

I think my math is fine thanks. Read my post again. I never mentioned Denmark so that's your reading issue, not my math issue. May 12th Sweden had 57 deaths compared to a combined 8 for Finland and Norway. Last time I checked 8x7=56, no? Total deaths through Tuesday are 3,313 to 503 (factor of 6.6 higher). I think the Finland + Norway comparison is better since Sweden is sandwiched right in between versus separated by a body of water. Also, Finland + Norway have 11M people combined compared to 10M in Sweden. Pretty close. If you are going to use Denmark + Finland instead you at least need to normalize for the fairly large population difference, no? Math fact mic drop.

I've read about the issue with the elderly in Sweden. My concern is that all countries are seeing large percentages of deaths in senior living. Are Finland and Norway outliers? If they also had 50% deaths in this community it wouldn't change the ratios, right?

I'm sensing aggression and I'm not sure where its coming from. We're all on the same team here. I want the best possible outcome and simply posted data with no bias or ulterior motive and you seemed to come at me for some reason. Believe me, I hope Sweden's approach works but the numbers are worrying at this point. As you said, we'll know more in a month or so.

My bad on the reading...too late at night...apologies

 

[Palatine]

I don’t know which of those 5 points made me laugh harder. Thank you.

I notice you couldn't refute any of my points. And, of course, you still can't.

Your points are not scientific or even rational. It's just more doomsday nonsense.

 

[UConnMike04]

My friend getting married in Vermont on July 4th still assumes he and his fiancée are having the wedding of his dreams and there will be no restrictions and everything is hunky dory. Poor guy isn’t having that wedding.

My wife’s best friend was supposed to get married 6/6 in VT. This is a small, 25 person wedding and it was canceled yesterday. VT isn’t letting any out of staters stay in any hotels, bed and breakfasts, inns, etc until earliest 6/15 without quarantining for 14 days and also restaurants are limited to 10 people or less. Their governor supposedly said this may be extended into mid-July. He’s not having that wedding. My wife’s friend, bc the wedding is so small, is eloping in front of their parents only and having a party next summer to celebrate.

On a side note, I posted a month ago in the big coronavirus thread about how it affects your daily life, that I had symptoms and I’m healthy, 38 and it knocked me on my ass for about two weeks and was never tested. I went for a blood test last week and got my results and I have the antibodies. My doctor (whose also an epidemiologist) said I have at least 1-2 years immunity for what that’s worth but to still use caution in public. My wife is getting tested tomorrow and we think she may have been asymptomatic as she lived with me for those couple of weeks and never had any symptoms.

I know about 7 or 8 people that had mild or no symptoms in Feb or March that also got tested and tested positive for antibodies. I don’t think we will ever know the true death rate and who truly had this and was either asymptomatic or never tested. I do believe it’s probably close to 40% of the population in the tri-state area which would be good bc we’d be much closer to herd immunity and also would very much lessen a second or third wave.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

My wife’s best friend was supposed to get married 6/6 in VT. This is a small, 25 person wedding and it was canceled yesterday. VT isn’t letting any out of staters stay in any hotels, bed and breakfasts, inns, etc until earliest 6/15 without quarantining for 14 days and also restaurants are limited to 10 people or less. Their governor supposedly said this may be extended into mid-July. He’s not having that wedding. My wife’s friend, bc the wedding is so small, is eloping in front of their parents only and having a party next summer to celebrate.

On a side note, I posted a month ago in the big coronavirus thread about how it affects your daily life, that I had symptoms and I’m healthy, 38 and it knocked me on my ass for about two weeks and was never tested. I went for a blood test last week and got my results and I have the antibodies. My doctor (whose also an epidemiologist) said I have at least 1-2 years immunity for what that’s worth but to still use caution in public. My wife is getting tested tomorrow and we think she may have been asymptomatic as she lived with me for those couple of weeks and never had any symptoms.

I know about 7 or 8 people that had mild or no symptoms in Feb or March that also got tested and tested positive for antibodies. I don’t think we will ever know the true death rate and who truly had this and was either asymptomatic or never tested. I do believe it’s probably close to 40% of the population in the tri-state area which would be good bc we’d be much closer to herd immunity and also would very much lessen a second or third wave.

Yeah he’s just looking at that 6/15 housing date and thinking he’s fine

 

[Peacefrog]

"On a side note, I posted a month ago in the big coronavirus thread about how it affects your daily life, that I had symptoms and I’m healthy, 38 and it knocked me on my ass for about two weeks and was never tested. I went for a blood test last week and got my results and I have the antibodies. My doctor (whose also an epidemiologist) said I have at least 1-2 years immunity for what that’s worth but to still use caution in public. My wife is getting tested tomorrow and we think she may have been asymptomatic as she lived with me for those couple of weeks and never had any symptoms. "

I would say that is worth a crap-ton! If true this would be huge in terms of attaining herd immunity. This is the first I have heard of any doctor making such a statement with this level of conviction. I wonder on what basis he is asserting this.

 

[Mr. Hand]

Herd immunity is just not going to happen, unfortunately.

It is a mathematical certainty that it will happen. The length of time and number of deaths may be up for debate, but coronavirus will not result in human extinction.

 

[auggie22]

"On a side note, I posted a month ago in the big coronavirus thread about how it affects your daily life, that I had symptoms and I’m healthy, 38 and it knocked me on my ass for about two weeks and was never tested. I went for a blood test last week and got my results and I have the antibodies. My doctor (whose also an epidemiologist) said I have at least 1-2 years immunity for what that’s worth but to still use caution in public. My wife is getting tested tomorrow and we think she may have been asymptomatic as she lived with me for those couple of weeks and never had any symptoms. "

I would say that is worth a crap-ton! If true this would be huge in terms of attaining herd immunity. This is the first I have heard of any doctor making such a statement with this level of conviction. I wonder on what basis he is asserting this.

Just read a scientific paper on this and it jibes with what you heard. Nothing is ever definitive except in retrospect though there is every indication that immunity could last for 1-3 years and even longer in the T cells. I’ll add a link as soon as I find it.

 

[UConnMike04]

Just read a scientific paper on this and it jibes with what you heard. Nothing is ever definitive except in retrospect though there is every indication that immunity could last for 1-3 years and even longer in the T cells. I’ll add a link as soon as I find it.

Exactly, and I shouldn’t be putting this hear but I trust you guys. I asked him why he is so certain given they are saying there is no sure way of telling. He said two points: 1) Latest research is showing that based on similar viruses and then he got all scientific, and 2). He said pay attention to the wording. They are saying publicly the “extent of immunity is unknown” simply because they don’t know if it’s up to 1 year, 3 years or forever like chicken pox. He said it’s being misunderstood in the media the way the wording is portrayed. He also said, and this was interesting, that they aren’t publicly acknowledging this yet from people like Fauci, etc bc they want to avoid everyone who THINKS they had it but in reality didn’t have it from going out into the public and spreading it when they never had it but just had a bad cold, flu, etc. Again, he told me this more in privacy because I’ve know him for 25 years as my doctor but I believe him.

 

[huskymedic]

Exactly, and I shouldn’t be putting this hear but I trust you guys. I asked him why he is so certain given they are saying there is no sure way of telling. He said two points: 1) Latest research is showing that based on similar viruses and then he got all scientific, and 2). He said pay attention to the wording. They are saying publicly the “extent of immunity is unknown” simply because they don’t know if it’s up to 1 year, 3 years or forever like chicken pox. He said it’s being misunderstood in the media the way the wording is portrayed. He also said, and this was interesting, that they aren’t publicly acknowledging this yet from people like Fauci, etc bc they want to avoid everyone who THINKS they had it but in reality didn’t have it from going out into the public and spreading it when they never had it but just had a bad cold, flu, etc. Again, he told me this more in privacy because I’ve know him for 25 years as my doctor but I believe him.

Everyone is basing it on experience w/ previous SARS virus (not necessarily Covid-19)... proof will be down the road.

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[Hi-Low]

Um, a virus and an invasion are two completely different things. Are you saying the states should never lead the charge in any scenario? The governors bear a lot of responsibility, and not only where they decide they want to be held accountable. Also, most Northeast governors have done an absolutely terrible job. Forcing nursing homes to take coronavirus patients? They couldn’t have handled it much worse. NY and PA have had the worst responses of the northeast states.

Have northeast governors been perfect no of course not but they bore the brunt of this and they were at least willing to lead and make mistakes in the absence of real federal guidance....we pay the feds trillions in taxes to protect us, they have the resources if they are competent enough to use them.

State govts can't print money or order businesses to make products or empower the CDC & NIH only the feds can and they acted too late when it was very obvious we had a big problem.

Back to the original topic lets hope the Feds help come up with a real plan to open schools in the Fall and not just watch 50 "experiments" to see who fails and who succeeds.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Damn. I mean I love my kids, but I'd love to see them on a campus this fall and not living at home:

California cancels fall university classes as Fauci warns of reopening too soon

California's state university system, the largest in the United States, canceled classes on Tuesday for the fall semester because of the coronavirus, while Los Angeles County said its stay-at-home order was likely to be extended by three months.

www.reuters.com

Why would anybody bother to pay full tuition for this version of college education? I wouldn't. I think there will be a huge number of skip year kids. May daughter is a HS Jr. We are still hoping we can get some visits in.

 

[JimHurley]

Have northeast governors been perfect no of course not but they bore the brunt of this and they were at least willing to lead and make mistakes in the absence of real federal guidance....we pay the feds trillions in taxes to protect us, they have the resources if they are competent enough to use them.

State govts can't print money or order businesses to make products or empower the CDC & NIH only the feds can and they acted too late when it was very obvious we had a big problem.

Back to the original topic lets hope the Feds help come up with a real plan to open schools in the Fall and not just watch 50 "experiments" to see who fails and who succeeds.

The Northeast governors have done the worst job out of the entire country. They were willing to lead and make mistakes? Their mistake of forcing nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. Absolutely atrocious.

 

[JimHurley]

Why would anybody bother to pay full tuition for this version of college education? I wouldn't. I think there will be a huge number of skip year kids. May daughter is a HS Jr. We are still hoping we can get some visits in.

Yeah, if you pay that money for online college you have to be some kind of fool. That is why I said schools closed for the fall will fold. Kids aren't stupid enough to pay $50K to learn from their computer. Go to your local community college or take a gap year.

 

[upstater]

It is a mathematical certainty that it will happen. The length of time and number of deaths may be up for debate, but coronavirus will not result in human extinction.

I didn't say it will result in extinction.

I really meant to say it won't come before a vaccine.

If the serology tests are correct, a very low % of the population has it. Either because it doesn't spread as easily as we once assumed or because social distancing has been very effective.

The very high levels required for her immunity wouldn't happen for a very long time. My mistake in the earlier post is in not acknowledging that herd immunity is also achieved through vaccination.

Sweden has had to totally rethink their approach because they are not going to get to herd immunity as fast as they had assumed.

 

[HooperScooper]

Why would anybody bother to pay full tuition for this version of college education? I wouldn't. I think there will be a huge number of skip year kids. May daughter is a HS Jr. We are still hoping we can get some visits in.

I hear you. My younger son will be a freshman next year at Hamilton College. He didn't choose a small liberal arts school to take on-line classes and live at home. That's the antithesis of why he chose Hamilton. And I'm not paying Hamilton's tuition rate to take on-line classes. My older son is a senior at Hamilton and he said the on-line classes were terribly boring and he advised us not to do it if Hamilton decides they can't have students back for the fall semester.

I did reach out to the school already and gave them that feedback. They have not made any decisions yet but they are making lots of contingency plans in case it's determined it's not safe to have students start in late August. I completely understand they have to make decisions that are in the best interests for the health of their students and faculty, but it's not what we signed up for and we may have to make a decision that is in our best interests. Such a PIA!

 

[upstater]

Are people buying computers? Buying cars? Taking vacations? Investing money? Economies are pretty complicated things. Your response does not explain how paying people’s salaries for a few months would protect our economy. What about the people who have jobs now but won’t in three or four months when the lack of spending forces businesses to close or retrench. Or 12 months from now when the vicious spiral continues?

The truth is layoffs are going to get much, much worse before they get better. The length of our mandated quarantine will determine how bad and for how long. By this time next year most of us could very well be out of jobs. Paying the unemployed their salary for a few months (or years) is not going to stop it.

Here's the thing. It's NOT paying the unemployed salary. It's paying the EMPLOYED salary. That's the key difference. The company gets the money for payroll.

Even the execs are made whole to a point.

This means that while abstract entities like corporations do not produce the same amount of revenue for a few months, very real living people are made whole without being fired. Corporations aren't people too--only their employees are. People are actually still buying computers, even cars, and investing. They are not taking vacations. But if you look at Europe post 2008, you'll see several countries that had even higher unemployment, even higher drops in GDP levels, and these countries stated growing again rapidly within a few years. There are other solutions, but they smell too much like socialism.

 

[upstater]

Or better yet colleges that are forced to come back to reality and charge tuition that isn’t 3x higher than inflation for the past 40 years.

Some facts to put this in perspective:

1. The average tuition in the USA is $7500 at publics.
2. 86% of the college market is in the publics.
3. The rise in tuition is almost wholly related to the drop in subsidy. If you started with $1k tuition in 1990 and you're charging $13k now, the 1,000% increase is a result of the $8k drop in subsidy per student.
4. Instead though, we are slashing education subsidies, so be prepared to see pubic tuition rise above that $7.5k average level.

Something to think about though, and I'm not really in favor of this, BUT--if we did decide to go tuition free like many countries in the first world, the amount it would take would not be that much at all.

The proposals I've seen require a state to pick up half the tab if the fed. gov't picks up the other half. If you multiply the amount of full-time students at publics nationwide (9m x $3750 tuition), the total would be $33b. If you decided that students must keep some skin in the game and pay, say, $2k in tuition, the total tab costs $24b a year.

This is not a super amount of money. It is less than double of what we spend on the National Parks system each year. It's 1/3rd of what we spend per student on kindergarten.

Again--I'm not sure I'm even in favor of this given that a significant amount of students (1/4?) are not invested in Higher Ed. even though they attend. But this is one way to look at the funding of it.

 

[upstater]

And your source?

The % required is so high that in hard hit towns and cities in countries like Italy, where serology testing has been done, the % of the population showing exposure is quite low (5%-15%). In Sweden, where they took hardly any precautions, exposure has also been pretty low. I think the Swedes assumed much greater transmissability.

 

[JimHurley]

I hear you. My younger son will be a freshman next year at Hamilton College. He didn't choose a small liberal arts school to take on-line classes and live at home. That's the antithesis of why he chose Hamilton. And I'm not paying Hamilton's tuition rate to take on-line classes. My older son is a senior at Hamilton and he said the on-line classes were terribly boring and he advised us not to do it if Hamilton decides they can't have students back for the fall semester.

I did reach out to the school already and gave them that feedback. They have not made any decisions yet but they are making lots of contingency plans in case it's determined it's not safe to have students start in late August. I completely understand they have to make decisions that are in the best interests for the health of their students and faculty, but it's not what we signed up for and we may have to make a decision that is in our best interests. Such a PIA!

Good for you. I hope more parents are like you and don't pay absurd tuition costs for fully online even if their kids want to. Online classes are painfully boring, and also a complete joke. You can look up the answers to everything. Quizzes, tests, homework, etc. Everything can be found online. And if you're paying $30,$40,$50K for an education where you just look everything up online to pass, well you're doing it wrong.

 

[Hi-Low]

The Northeast governors have done the worst job out of the entire country. They were willing to lead and make mistakes? Their mistake of forcing nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. Absolutely atrocious.

So you agree with my other points that the Federal response has been pathetic and certain very important things like money, defense prod act & CDC response can only be done by them?

Did all the governors make nursing homes accept Covid patients or just Cuomo & Jersey? What evidence are you citing that decision directly resulted in tens of thousands of deaths? I'm sure it increased the toll but to say every nursing home death is Cuomo's fault and that the virus wasn't already present in many nursing homes is a tad overstated on your part wouldn't you agree?

 

[JimHurley]

So you agree with my other points that the Federal response has been pathetic and certain very important things can only be done by them?

Did all the northeast governors make nursing homes accept Covid patients or just Cuomo & Jersey? What evidence are you citing that decision directly resulted in tens of thousands of deaths? I'm sure it increased the toll but to say every nursing home death is Cuomo's fault and that the virus wasn't already present in many nursing is a tad overstated on your part wouldn't you agree?

All the people saying the Federal response has been pathetic cannot tell me what they would do to make the response better. The answer I always hear is testing. Do you want the federal government to create infinite tests with a magic wand? Do you understand that these tests need to be produced and that there is a limit on how many can be produced? Tests are a finite resource just like everything else. It is not humanly possible to have a test available for every person in this country.

I believe NY, NJ, and PA forced nursing homes to take coronavirus patients. How much more evidence do you need to understand that resulted in a large number of deaths? Those who tested positive were sent to institutions that housed the most vulnerable people. Are you paying attention to what percent of deaths are coming from nursing homes? Yeah, that's because politicians' policies to bring people who had the virus there.

 

[Hi-Low]

All the people saying the Federal response has been pathetic cannot tell me what they would do.....

You're not big on reading, I said...The Feds have money, the Defense Production Act for PPE and test supplies shortages warned about in January, The CDC, the NIH, HHS...states are limited, if you can't see that I give up.

My sister is a hospital nurse in CT and was forced to wear the same mask all 14 hours a day that are meant for 1 patient use only. Nurses were given guidance by the feds to wear a bandana as a mask because of shortages...that is pathetic.

 

[Kenny11]

All the people saying the Federal response has been pathetic cannot tell me what they would do to make the response better. The answer I always hear is testing. Do you want the federal government to create infinite tests with a magic wand? Do you understand that these tests need to be produced and that there is a limit on how many can be produced? Tests are a finite resource just like everything else. It is not humanly possible to have a test available for every person in this country.

I believe NY, NJ, and PA forced nursing homes to take coronavirus patients. How much more evidence do you need to understand that resulted in a large number of deaths? Those who tested positive were sent to institutions that housed the most vulnerable people. Are you paying attention to what percent of deaths are coming from nursing homes? Yeah, that's because politicians' policies to bring people who had the virus there.

the US was warned in detail in December, in January, in February and the “president” and other leaders didn’t do anything but say its a hoax, downplay the dangers, contradict actual scientists and senators in the meetings shut their mouths and sold their stocks. Criticizing state responses is fine and probably justified but it’s impossible to defend the federal response. It’s been a complete disaster led by a half literate raging twitter addict in his 70s.

 

[JimHurley]

You're not big on reading, I said...The Feds have money, the Defense Production Act for PPE and test supplies shortages warned about in January, The CDC, the NIH, HHS...states are limited, if you can't see that I give up.

My sister is a hospital nurse in CT and was forced to wear the same mask all 14 hours a day that are meant for 1 patient use only. Nurses were given guidance by the feds to wear a bandana as a mask because of shortages...that is pathetic.

And I can see you're not big on supply side economics. Do you want the White House to enforce the Defense Protection Act on every company to produce PPE? Should we just shutdown all other industries and produce PPE? That just doesn't add up. To sufficiently test and isolate, we would need billions and billions of tests. The country has over 320,000,000 million people. How many tests should we produce to meet those needs? The answer is more than we could ever possibly make. Think feasibility before saying testing is the end all solution.

the US was warned in detail in December, in January, in February and the “president” and other leaders didn’t do anything but say its a hoax, downplay the dangers, contradict actual scientists and senators in the meetings shut their mouths and sold their stocks. Criticizing state responses is fine and probably justified but it’s impossible to defend the federal response. It’s been a complete disaster led by a half literate raging twitter addict in his 70s.

Yeah, never have I ever said the federal response was good. Not once. I'd argue it wouldn't be much different with a different leader, but it's still not good. Can you tell me the response would've been better with a different president? And how so? Before you say more testing, read my above post. There are problems at the top, but I wish people would realize the government is never an efficiently operating system no matter who is in charge. The corruption and inefficiency of the federal government is and has been mindblowingly obvious.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I didn't say it will result in extinction.

I really meant to say it won't come before a vaccine.

If the serology tests are correct, a very low % of the population has it. Either because it doesn't spread as easily as we once assumed or because social distancing has been very effective.

The very high levels required for her immunity wouldn't happen for a very long time. My mistake in the earlier post is in not acknowledging that herd immunity is also achieved through vaccination.

Sweden has had to totally rethink their approach because they are not going to get to herd immunity as fast as they had assumed.

Sweden isn't changing their approach except with respect to nursing homes. Other places are beginning to adopt their approach.

As for a vaccine, many are progressing. Do you know how many vaccines we have created for other coronaviruses? None. That would be zero.

So if you wait for a vaccine, that may mean waiting for as long as we all live.

 

[superjohn]

[/QUOTE]

the US was warned in detail in December, in January, in February and the “president” and other leaders didn’t do anything but say its a hoax, downplay the dangers, contradict actual scientists and senators in the meetings shut their mouths and sold their stocks. Criticizing state responses is fine and probably justified but it’s impossible to defend the federal response. It’s been a complete disaster led by a half literate raging twitter addict in his 70s.

The president has been a nightmare but so have the health "experts". We know how much our politicians suck but the health "experts" we've been told to listen to are just as inconsitent. Fauci has been all over the place with we should be far more concerned with the flu, masks are pointless...he says we could have a vaccine by January, then a few days later a vaccine could make the virus worse.

The CDC with their testing disaster, then there's the corrupt trainwreck The WHO who has taken the China gov't company line from the jump and then spent close to 2 months bashing Sweden only to turn around and say Sweden should be the model for countries going forward. They now come out and say the virus may never go away. These are the same people who said the virus wasn't transmissable three weeks after doctors in China said it was spreading all over Wuhan and people are dying.

What we do know, if you are elderly and have chronic health problems it's a deadly virus for you. If you are younger and don't have chonic health problems the risk of death is miniscule. Our policies should always be based around that. Instead everyone is dying in nursing homes. I'm not sure what the solution to that is but sending Covid patients to nursing homes is negligent and bordering on criminal. We always knew this virus targets the old and sick.

 

[superjohn]

Sweden isn't changing their approach except with respect to nursing homes. Other places are beginning to adopt their approach.

As for a vaccine, many are progressing. Do you know how many vaccines we have created for other coronaviruses? None. That would be zero.

So if you wait for a vaccine, that may mean waiting for as long as we all live.

The waiting on a vaccine thing is insane. I can't believe anyone ever entertained that and yet I still think some are entertaining that idea.

 

[JimHurley]

The waiting on a vaccine thing is insane. I can't believe anyone ever entertained that and yet I still think some are entertaining that idea.

The vaccine and waiting to "fully eradicate" the virus are both insane. There's a good chance neither happens. If that's the case are states that won't reopen just going to pay their citizens to sit at home the rest of their lives? Good grief.