California state university system cancels fall classes on campus

[JimHurley]

That scenario just happens to be my life. Some tough decisions coming up. Several people in her office have had Covid and lets just say they have not acted responsibly. Several others are in contact with covid positive people. It's tough relying on other people to be vigilant when lives are at stake. You can't control how other people act or think. Tough situation for so many people...

It is...from every angle.

 

[JimHurley]

I'm actually appreciating some of the reasoned discussion here. And on The Boneyard of all places. No matter where I stand on an issue, hearing arguments from both sides helps me crystallize my own thoughts. I have family members that work in healthcare who have witnessed and continue to witness the horrors: suffering, lack of testing, lack of PPE, death, etc... I also have a good friend with all his money invested in his business that was thriving before the virus but is non-essential and currently shutdown. If he can't reopen fairly soon he will be ruined and starting over financially in his late 40's. Lots of people arguing with utter certainty on both sides. Perhaps there is no "right" answer; they are all bad to some extent. We are left to try and figure out which course of action causes the least devastation.

Exactly!!! I obviously have my opinion but I love hearing from those who think differently and why they think that way. Dan Hurley did say we are a knowledgeable fan base!!

 

[ctchamps]

I'm actually appreciating some of the reasoned discussion here. And on The Boneyard of all places. No matter where I stand on an issue, hearing arguments from both sides helps me crystallize my own thoughts. I have family members that work in healthcare who have witnessed and continue to witness the horrors: suffering, lack of testing, lack of PPE, death, etc... I also have a good friend with all his money invested in his business that was thriving before the virus but is non-essential and currently shutdown. If he can't reopen fairly soon he will be ruined and starting over financially in his late 40's. Lots of people arguing with utter certainty on both sides. Perhaps there is no "right" answer; they are all bad to some extent. We are left to try and figure out which course of action causes the least devastation.

The last line is the salient point. IMO we can try all we want and argue all we want but we have no way of knowing which would be the best outcome for our country given it's position at this moment. Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, China, Germany, New Zealand and a few other European countries have reached containment and can do testing and contact isolation. We are still some way from getting to that point. As a consequence we will get further and further behind them economically if Americans are afraid to risk their health or lives over this virus. Citizens in those countries still have to be concerned but they have a reasonable reassurance that any outbreaks will be confined. We will get to adequate testing and contact tracing at some point but it's horrific that we did not lead the world in this pandemic.

 

[freescooter]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any logical way that the dominoes falling don't lead to the cancellation of fall college sports for all NCAA schools. I believe the NCAA presidents have already said that they will not have sports without students back on campus. California is the largest state university system in the country and I don't see the NCAA taking a divided stance on this.

Plus LA County is in lockdown through June at least and I think I saw July. So that means no USC or UCLA. can’t see the PAC playing without those 2.

Add in Fauci’s comments to the Senate yesterday and you have to think many schools won’t be back at least for a while. Ohio, Maryland, Massachusetts, in addition to New York and California are all possible no goes.

 

[freescooter]

Over 60% of deaths in CT. in nursing homes, over 60% in Massachussets, 72% in New Hampshire, 80% in Minnesota. 90% of deaths in CT. last week were in nursing homes.

Of course that means 40% were not in nursing homes. You volunteering?

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

The curve has been flattened. The medical system is as far from overwhelmed as it gets. Hospitals are going bankrupt, nurses are getting laid off. This is because other procedures are being put off and people are scared to go to the doctor. I work in healthcare economics and I can tell you hospitals are reporting that there are FAR more available hospital beds than reported cases of the virus.

Not having enough tests is a problem, but testing is also overrated. Are we supposed to test every human every time they leave their house? Think about the number of tests we'd need to be considered sufficient. I guarantee that number of tests is not even a possibility. It is literally not possible to test everyone on a regular basis. We have 330,000,000 people in the country. Even if 1 in 4 people leave their house, are we going to conduct 75,000,000 tests daily? Not even remotely possible.

there is no way testing is overrated. Any data we can collect is valuable.

 

[JimHurley]

there is no way testing is overrated. Any data we can collect is valuable.

Ok, testing is not the solution. In order for testing to be the solution, you’d have to test every citizen in the country on a regular basis which is not even close to possible. Any data helps, but more testing won’t do much to slow the spread. Millions of people will still be walking around with the virus while being asymptomatic.

 

[Slick]

Over 60% of deaths in CT. in nursing homes, over 60% in Massachussets, 72% in New Hampshire, 80% in Minnesota. 90% of deaths in CT. last week were in nursing homes.

Average age of deaths in Mass last week was 82.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

What is favorable anecdotal reporting...that we have an oversupply of hospital space? It's not anecdotal...its fact...how much did Chicago spend on UNUSED hospital space? providing additional factual info is NOT an anecdote

The "favorable trending" is the hospital & equipment utilization you reported, which I did not question.

The "helpful anecdotal" referred to the oncologist nephew who had returned to usual duties/setting as needs for his hospital services on the COVID-19 ebbed. I did not question this either.

In other words, you appear to be fighting a battle that doesn't exist.

Please consider that the term "favorable anecdotal" reporting originated with you, not me. I truly have no idea what it means. But I not troubled by this, because I didn't offer it. I am kind of puzzled as to why you asked me the meaning something that you made up.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Illinois governor has said they need to eradicate the virus before reopening. California governor has implied they will need a vaccine.

Pritzker, as reported in the Washington Times, was quoted much as you wrote.

The Chicago Tribune called his stance too extreme.

Pritzker accurately said that he has offered a reopening plan, and that his emphasis was that things would not be returning to normal.

The back-and forth reads like process & degree skirmishes, and resulting misunderstandings borne of exaggerated language and interpretations of the type I find unhelpful.


Even taken in the worst light, Pritzker's specific wording seems rare, and unsurprisingly occasioned criticism that makes sense to me. His point of view, even absent legitimate qualifications, does not seem widespread. If it did, I'd share more of your concern.

I appreciate your responding with specificity, and think your having done so was helpful to my understanding by providing a source, and to to my sense that this is not an issue to the troublesome degree I've gotten from some of what you've written.

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

Ok, testing is not the solution. In order for testing to be the solution, you’d have to test every citizen in the country on a regular basis which is not even close to possible. Any data helps, but more testing won’t do much to slow the spread. Millions of people will still be walking around with the virus while being asymptomatic.

so wouldnt testing help to show that? The countries that have seemed to slow the virus or limit the exposure have done mass testing early on. We've screwed that up.

 

[JimHurley]

so wouldnt testing help to show that? The countries that have seemed to slow the virus or limit the exposure have done mass testing early on. We've screwed that up.

It would help, but it wouldn’t be enough. That’s what I’m saying. For testing to be the end all solution, we’d need to test every person who leaves their house every day. Without that, there will always been people carrying the virus without knowing it.

 

[NJHusky]

Do you believe you won't have additional spikes?

I don't know and neither do you...nor do I believe does anyone else. the models were so far off they can't be considered models IMO. Fauci the guru, said in Jan and Feb this was nothing to be concerned about. The NY City Health Commissioner told people to go out...as did the Mayor...am I supposed to rely on them?

So we are supposed to stay locked down until Nov in case a second wave might happen? How about this...if it happens and starts to look like it will overwhelm hospitals...shut down again for a few weeks.

In the meantime we have 5 months of building herd immunity. And by some of the studies looks like some parts of the city have a 45%+ infection rate...so they are close.

 

[NJHusky]

there is no way testing is overrated. Any data we can collect is valuable.

At this point serology testing is the most useful piece of data

 

[cohenzone]

Cal has a huge

Closing schools makes no sense. The number of young adults being killed by the virus is close to zero. The CDC number is about one in a million for 18-24 year olds. Keep the kids and teachers with severe underlying conditions home doing online courses and let the rest go about business.

Let’s see the age groups by numbers of the faculty,building maintenance people etc before just looking at the students, who aren’t immune anyway simply,because they are younger. It ain’t that easy to replace professors.

 

[cohenzone]

I don't know and neither do you...nor do I believe does anyone else. the models were so far off they can't be considered models IMO. Fauci the guru, said in Jan and Feb this was nothing to be concerned about. The NY City Health Commissioner told people to go out...as did the Mayor...am I supposed to rely on them?

So we are supposed to stay locked down until Nov in case a second wave might happen? How about this...if it happens and starts to look like it will overwhelm hospitals...shut down again for a few weeks.

In the meantime we have 5 months of building herd immunity. And by some of the studies looks like some parts of the city have a 45%+ infection rate...so they are close.

I haven’t heard a single expert conclude that there will definitely be herd immunity or if there is, of what duration.

 

[NJHusky]

so wouldnt testing help to show that? The countries that have seemed to slow the virus or limit the exposure have done mass testing early on. We've screwed that up.

The head of the CDC should be fired...He was responsible for testing and they submitted a non functioning test. Once we got the private sector involved, testing has appeared. I can go online and schedule a test with quest labs..$119...so can you. Or I can go and wait in my car 10 min from my house for a free test. I can also go online and get a serology test...so can you.

 

[NJHusky]

I haven’t heard a single expert conclude that there will definitely be herd immunity or if there is, of what duration.

Maybe you should ask Anders Tegnell?

On another note...anyone see this article from the Israeli mathematician that says it has a 10 week cycle?
covid timeline

His numbers might not be far off based on the graph from Israel
Israel

 

[ctchamps]

I don't know and neither do you...nor do I believe does anyone else. the models were so far off they can't be considered models IMO. Fauci the guru, said in Jan and Feb this was nothing to be concerned about. The NY City Health Commissioner told people to go out...as did the Mayor...am I supposed to rely on them?

So we are supposed to stay locked down until Nov in case a second wave might happen? How about this...if it happens and starts to look like it will overwhelm hospitals...shut down again for a few weeks.

In the meantime we have 5 months of building herd immunity. And by some of the studies looks like some parts of the city have a 45%+ infection rate...so they are close.

I thought the POTUS said that. I had a back and forth with you early March and you thought I was over reacting to the seriousness of this situation.

 

[cohenzone]

Maybe you should ask Anders Tegnell?

You mean the guy who said they underestimated the potential death rate? Maybe we have to wait and see before concluding anything.

 

[NJHusky]

I thought the POTUS said that. I had a back and forth with you early March and you thought I was over reacting to the seriousness of this situation.

In Feb I didn't think it was going to be huge deal...Neither did Fauci...or others supposed to be in the know like the NYC health commissioner or mayor. I think it's a big deal for those with comorbidities and those over 65...for most people under 45 it's not a huge deal. In FL it has the same fatality rate as the regular flu for those under 45. if you look at some of the serology studies that show infection rates are 50-80x greater than reported, fatality rates will be much lower. We need to isolate the vulnerable which has not been done properly

 

[JB75]

Fall Sports have spring and summer workouts. If they aren't back on campus by early June, especially football, then it isn't happening

Eh. I don’t buy that. An extra month- wouldn’t matter that much - but cancelling classes this soon has a whole wide reverberating range of effects. Much more than starting workouts a few weeks late. Cmon now I’m just saying wait another month. What u have to lose? Plus there’s always the option of pushing up the beginning of a college football season a few weeks to mid September to make up for the lost workouts. The repercussions of cancelling this early far outweighs those of a few extra workout weeks.

 

[NJHusky]

You mean the guy who said they underestimated the potential death rate? Maybe we have to wait and see before concluding anything.

your question was an expert who believes in herd immunity...he does. He also said they didn't isolate the nursing home people who account for > 50% of fatalities in Sweden.....let's see if they have herd immunity by June as predicted

 

[cohenzone]

Because they didn't isolate the nursing home people....let's see if Sweden has herd immunity by June as predicted

I agree on the let’s see. Or if June will actually tell us. There is no expert on this virus, only people expert on past contagions. They are all making best guesses.

 

[JB75]

Did anyone listen to the head of the system talk about it or is everyone just relying on headlines and being shocked? He said he is doing this to allow the most of time for preparation and decision making. It is not easy to shift an entire system (well almost entire because they will still allow in person learning is some certain cases) to distance learning. Doing this now allows for the professors to prepare to enable the best possible learning situation. Most already know how to teach in person and are on cruise control in the classroom. It is more difficult to switch from in person to distance learning than the other way around. This allows professors time to adjust and prepare and make the best possible learning situation. Also, allows the students to make a decision about their future. Rather than enrolling, paying, and then being blindsided with distance learning at the last minute, they can decide yes or no, and then not have to worry about residential arrangements, etc that may fall through at the last minute. They know what they are signing up for. He made good arguments for making the decision now and living with it. Now for my additional take, I would think that that the Cal State program has a significant Asian population that will not allowed back into the country in August. This is a way for Cal State to receive payment and keep those students enrolled and able to “take classes” and more importantly pay. I may be wrong on that point as it’s my guess, but it’s a los easier to reach California from Asia than the east coast so it seems logical.

Who’s saying fall thru at last minute? I’m just saying why not wait till mid June? There’s a big difference between jumping the gun and last minute. And let’s be real these professors are already prepared for online learning as it is -you have to admit May 15 is a bit ridiculous