California state university system cancels fall classes on campus

[UCfor3]

Yup, you make a lot of good points. That is why I favor continued self-isolation for the vulnerable. As I said in my last post, I'm extremely unlikely to die from it being in my 20s but the fact that I live with my grandparents who are approaching 80 keeps me responsible. The thing is cases will likely never hit zero, the vaccine may not be effective, and there will never be enough testing available to test everyone regularly. I think people need to consider those facts when planning a course of action.

Masks supposedly help diminish the spread of people that have the virus. Masks don't necessarily protect the people that wear them and don't have the virus. So here is the scenario...I have health issues and are vulnerable. My wife is less vulnerable than me but still has some issues and is in her early 50's. I can shelter in place but she is made to return to work next week. She catches covid from some wingnut that refuses to wear a mask, brings it home to me, and I die..or worse she dies. We did everything we were supposed to and hypothetically it was still not enough. I could shelter in place but my wife could still bring it home. I mean they can't even keep it out of the west wing.

 

[NJHusky]

I can say with pretty near certainty that the GI Joe's protesting in Michigan with their multiple thousand dollar AR-15s and other rifles are not working class and are most likely either part of the petite bourgeoisie or, more likely, are paid by nefarious forces

can you provide some factual basis for this?

 

[NJHusky]

Let's be clear. I'm advocating adequate testing and contact tracing so that the economy can open up properly. Do that and you can avoid additional spikes with attendant fears in the population and economic collapse. The goal was to flatten the curve and not allow it to spike again. Do you honestly believe we've achieved that goal?

Yes, I do believe it has been flattened!

 

[JimHurley]

I know it's China and I'm skeptical about what they put out almost as much as the what I hear from dot, dot dot. Whuhon Province just had eleven new cases. China is in the process of testing all eleven million of it's residents. When do you think we'll be able to come close to that type of testing. Of course they have their citizens identified and can follow pretty much every one of them. I would never advocate that for this country. The salient point is they have the testing capacity. We suck to say the least.

OK, 11 million is much different than 330 million. We just can't do that. It's not in the realm of possibility. 330 million tests? And what good is a one time test for everyone? You need way more than that. So, we're talking in the billions as far as number of tests. Again, just not possible. Testing is overrated if you cannot test every resident of your country regularly, which we will never ever be able to do.

But right now we don't know what the long term effects are and that's what scares me. I'm 26 so I'm not at risk of dying in 3 weeks if I get it. But what I don't know is what's going to happen 5-10 years from now if I get it and there's long term damage

It's easy to say that only the high risk people stay home and we open back up, and that's what's going to happen. I'm just not certain the short term risk population is the same as the long term.

And to be clear, I'm not saying shut down the world until we get a vaccine but having some (not all) schooling online or a year of no sports isn't crazy to me

Right, nobody knows. That's the bottom line. I think the media has injected lots of unnecessary fear into this country. Because again, nobody knows. Experts can give you their opinions of their areas of expertise but it's an assumption at best. Anybody speaking factually regarding the future of this virus is lying.

Masks supposedly help diminish the spread of people that have the virus. Masks don't necessarily protect the people that wear them and don't have the virus. So here is the scenario...I have health issues and are vulnerable. My wife is less vulnerable than me but still has some issues and is in her early 50's. I can shelter in place but she is made to return to work next week. She catches covid from some wingnut that refuses to wear a mask, brings it home to me, and I die..or worse she dies. We did everything we were supposed to and hypothetically it was still not enough. I could shelter in place but my wife could still bring it home. I mean they can't even keep it out of the west wing.

That's a very realistic scenario. If I was an employer I'd require my employees to wear a mask so the scenario you described is as least likely as possible to happen. Other than that, I'm not as sure. That's where it gets tricky. To the extremes, your wife could not go back to work but then you wouldn't be able to afford a living. She could also wait for cases to go down to near zero, but there's a good chance that may never happen.

My cousin is a nurse who lives with her mom, who is 70. It's a real concern. My cousin works on a floor that has had patients with the virus. So it's similar to what you described. My cousin wears a mask around the house. It's unfortunate, but a part of life right now.

 

[UCfor3]

Yes, I do believe it has been flattened!

That depends on where you live right now. It is on the rise in many states. Many which are open now. We have 4% of the worlds population and 28% of the worlds deaths from Covid. Let those numbers sink in for a second. We are shockingly bad at this. Any confidence that we have this under control seems like wishful thinking. I love the term "open up smartly." What has given anyone the confidence that we can do any of this smartly at this point? You can't even open a park for a weekend without it looking like Mardi Gras.

 

[ctchamps]

Thanks for this info. There is a "significant" number of people over 55 and under 35 requiring intensive care, but the number per 100,000 residents is very low. I'd say there's a significant number of coronavirus cases in this country, but when you look at it with perspective, only about 0.4% of the total US population has tested positive. It's significant, but it's certainly not high when looking at it from that angle.

Agree about the numbers. But even those low percentage numbers will overwhelm the medical system. That's what happen in Lombardy Italy and NYC and several places in Spain. The reason other places in the USA did not go through the crisis that NYC suffered is that people observed what was happening there and were scared enough by that situation to isolate. The degree of isolation is reducing. Some people have no choice financially. But many who have a choice lack discipline and will use finances as an excuse.

The important thing is not arguing amongst ourselves about what is the best choice. There is none. We get any additional spikes and the economy could be worse off than if we prolonged stay at home mandates. We'll find out soon enough. My opinion is that we will absolutely have spikes and most likely they will be worse than the first spike. How many and when is less predictable, but I'm not betting this summer will give us a respite. The biggest unknown is how will the average person react to those spikes.

When things were happening in Lombard Italy I correctly called in this forum that the USA was going to be in trouble. I got the expected pushback that we are not Lombard Italy. It took NYC for Americans to take things seriously. Of course the best learning is when we have situations happening to ourselves. So I expect a significant number of people to rationalize the worse case situation is confined to NYC because that city is different than Podunk USA. That's irrational because the virus doesn't recognize geography. Interestingly the reactions were similar after 911.

I'm more into predictions than pizzing back and forth over and over again the same arguments. That is why I've stayed out of most of these debates.

I've been wrong about one up to this point. Thought Florida would have considerable more problems than they have had. Part of my "incorrect prediction" was because most of the mayors took control of their cities ahead of the governor. Part is due to the probability the governor is fudging the numbers considerably more than the average politician on both sides of the spectrum. Nonetheless I'm happy to be wrong on this.

I'm still waiting on my hypothesis of hydroxychloroquine. I'll be happy to be wrong on that one as well.

 

[Peacefrog]

I'm actually appreciating some of the reasoned discussion here. And on The Boneyard of all places. No matter where I stand on an issue, hearing arguments from both sides helps me crystallize my own thoughts. I have family members that work in healthcare who have witnessed and continue to witness the horrors: suffering, lack of testing, lack of PPE, death, etc... I also have a good friend with all his money invested in his business that was thriving before the virus but is non-essential and currently shutdown. If he can't reopen fairly soon he will be ruined and starting over financially in his late 40's. Lots of people arguing with utter certainty on both sides. Perhaps there is no "right" answer; they are all bad to some extent. We are left to try and figure out which course of action causes the least devastation.

 

[UCfor3]

OK, 11 million is much different than 330 million. We just can't do that. It's not in the realm of possibility. 330 million tests? And what good is a one time test for everyone? You need way more than that. So, we're talking in the billions as far as number of tests. Again, just not possible. Testing is overrated if you cannot test every resident of your country regularly, which we will never ever be able to do.



Right, nobody knows. That's the bottom line. I think the media has injected lots of unnecessary fear into this country. Because again, nobody knows. Experts can give you their opinions of their areas of expertise but it's an assumption at best. Anybody speaking factually regarding the future of this virus is lying.



That's a very realistic scenario. If I was an employer I'd require my employees to wear a mask so the scenario you described is as least likely as possible to happen. Other than that, I'm not as sure. That's where it gets tricky. To the extremes, your wife could not go back to work but then you wouldn't be able to afford a living. She could also wait for cases to go down to near zero, but there's a good chance that may never happen.

My cousin is a nurse who lives with her mom, who is 70. It's a real concern. My cousin works on a floor that has had patients with the virus. So it's similar to what you described. My cousin wears a mask around the house. It's unfortunate, but a part of life right now.

That scenario just happens to be my life. Some tough decisions coming up. Several people in her office have had Covid and lets just say they have not acted responsibly. Several others are in contact with covid positive people. It's tough relying on other people to be vigilant when lives are at stake. You can't control how other people act or think. Tough situation for so many people...

 

[ctchamps]

Yes, I do believe it has been flattened!

Do you believe you won't have additional spikes?

 

[JimHurley]

Agree about the numbers. But even those low percentage numbers will overwhelm the medical system. That's what happen in Lombardy Italy and NYC and several places in Spain. The reason other places in the USA did not go through the crisis that NYC suffered is that people observed what was happening there and were scared enough by that situation to isolate. The degree of isolation is reducing. Some people have no choice financially. But many who have a choice lack discipline and will use finances as an excuse.

The important thing is not arguing amongst ourselves about what is the best choice. There is none. We get any additional spikes and the economy could be worse off than if we prolonged stay at home mandates. We'll find out soon enough. My opinion is that we will absolutely have spikes and most likely they will be worse than the first spike. How many and when is less predictable, but I'm not betting this summer will give us a respite. The biggest unknown is how will the average person react to those spikes.

When things were happening in Lombard Italy I correctly called in this forum that the USA was going to be in trouble. I got the expected pushback that we are not Lombard Italy. It took NYC for Americans to take things seriously. Of course the best learning is when we have situations happening to ourselves. So I expect a significant number of people to rationalize the worse case situation is confined to NYC because that city is different than Podunk USA. That's irrational because the virus doesn't recognize geography. Interestingly the reactions were similar after 911.

I'm more into predictions than pizzing back and forth over and over again the same arguments. That is why I've stayed out of most of these debates.

I've been wrong about one up to this point. Thought Florida would have considerable more problems than they have had. Part of my "incorrect prediction" was because most of the mayors took control of their cities ahead of the governor. Part is due to the probability the governor is fudging the numbers considerably more than the average politician on both sides of the spectrum. Nonetheless I'm happy to be wrong on this.

I'm still waiting on my hypothesis of hydroxychloroquine. I'll be happy to be wrong on that one as well.

All good insight. The two sentences I bolded are the absolute truth. We can all share our thoughts on what is best, but it's all opinion and there truly is no "best" risk-free option.

My hypothesis is that the government will continue to slowly reopen, with the vulnerable and those living with the vulnerable being encouraged to practice extreme caution. There will likely be another spike, but it will be a result of those who absolutely have to go to work actually going to work.

 

[JimHurley]

That scenario just happens to be my life. Some tough decisions coming up. Several people in her office have had Covid and lets just say they have not acted responsibly. Several others are in contact with covid positive people. It's tough relying on other people to be vigilant when lives are at stake. You can't control how other people act or think. Tough situation for so many people...

It is...from every angle.

 

[JimHurley]

I'm actually appreciating some of the reasoned discussion here. And on The Boneyard of all places. No matter where I stand on an issue, hearing arguments from both sides helps me crystallize my own thoughts. I have family members that work in healthcare who have witnessed and continue to witness the horrors: suffering, lack of testing, lack of PPE, death, etc... I also have a good friend with all his money invested in his business that was thriving before the virus but is non-essential and currently shutdown. If he can't reopen fairly soon he will be ruined and starting over financially in his late 40's. Lots of people arguing with utter certainty on both sides. Perhaps there is no "right" answer; they are all bad to some extent. We are left to try and figure out which course of action causes the least devastation.

Exactly!!! I obviously have my opinion but I love hearing from those who think differently and why they think that way. Dan Hurley did say we are a knowledgeable fan base!!

 

[ctchamps]

I'm actually appreciating some of the reasoned discussion here. And on The Boneyard of all places. No matter where I stand on an issue, hearing arguments from both sides helps me crystallize my own thoughts. I have family members that work in healthcare who have witnessed and continue to witness the horrors: suffering, lack of testing, lack of PPE, death, etc... I also have a good friend with all his money invested in his business that was thriving before the virus but is non-essential and currently shutdown. If he can't reopen fairly soon he will be ruined and starting over financially in his late 40's. Lots of people arguing with utter certainty on both sides. Perhaps there is no "right" answer; they are all bad to some extent. We are left to try and figure out which course of action causes the least devastation.

The last line is the salient point. IMO we can try all we want and argue all we want but we have no way of knowing which would be the best outcome for our country given it's position at this moment. Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, China, Germany, New Zealand and a few other European countries have reached containment and can do testing and contact isolation. We are still some way from getting to that point. As a consequence we will get further and further behind them economically if Americans are afraid to risk their health or lives over this virus. Citizens in those countries still have to be concerned but they have a reasonable reassurance that any outbreaks will be confined. We will get to adequate testing and contact tracing at some point but it's horrific that we did not lead the world in this pandemic.

 

[freescooter]

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any logical way that the dominoes falling don't lead to the cancellation of fall college sports for all NCAA schools. I believe the NCAA presidents have already said that they will not have sports without students back on campus. California is the largest state university system in the country and I don't see the NCAA taking a divided stance on this.

Plus LA County is in lockdown through June at least and I think I saw July. So that means no USC or UCLA. can’t see the PAC playing without those 2.

Add in Fauci’s comments to the Senate yesterday and you have to think many schools won’t be back at least for a while. Ohio, Maryland, Massachusetts, in addition to New York and California are all possible no goes.

 

[freescooter]

Over 60% of deaths in CT. in nursing homes, over 60% in Massachussets, 72% in New Hampshire, 80% in Minnesota. 90% of deaths in CT. last week were in nursing homes.

Of course that means 40% were not in nursing homes. You volunteering?

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

The curve has been flattened. The medical system is as far from overwhelmed as it gets. Hospitals are going bankrupt, nurses are getting laid off. This is because other procedures are being put off and people are scared to go to the doctor. I work in healthcare economics and I can tell you hospitals are reporting that there are FAR more available hospital beds than reported cases of the virus.

Not having enough tests is a problem, but testing is also overrated. Are we supposed to test every human every time they leave their house? Think about the number of tests we'd need to be considered sufficient. I guarantee that number of tests is not even a possibility. It is literally not possible to test everyone on a regular basis. We have 330,000,000 people in the country. Even if 1 in 4 people leave their house, are we going to conduct 75,000,000 tests daily? Not even remotely possible.

there is no way testing is overrated. Any data we can collect is valuable.

 

[JimHurley]

there is no way testing is overrated. Any data we can collect is valuable.

Ok, testing is not the solution. In order for testing to be the solution, you’d have to test every citizen in the country on a regular basis which is not even close to possible. Any data helps, but more testing won’t do much to slow the spread. Millions of people will still be walking around with the virus while being asymptomatic.

 

[Slick]

Over 60% of deaths in CT. in nursing homes, over 60% in Massachussets, 72% in New Hampshire, 80% in Minnesota. 90% of deaths in CT. last week were in nursing homes.

Average age of deaths in Mass last week was 82.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

What is favorable anecdotal reporting...that we have an oversupply of hospital space? It's not anecdotal...its fact...how much did Chicago spend on UNUSED hospital space? providing additional factual info is NOT an anecdote

The "favorable trending" is the hospital & equipment utilization you reported, which I did not question.

The "helpful anecdotal" referred to the oncologist nephew who had returned to usual duties/setting as needs for his hospital services on the COVID-19 ebbed. I did not question this either.

In other words, you appear to be fighting a battle that doesn't exist.

Please consider that the term "favorable anecdotal" reporting originated with you, not me. I truly have no idea what it means. But I not troubled by this, because I didn't offer it. I am kind of puzzled as to why you asked me the meaning something that you made up.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Illinois governor has said they need to eradicate the virus before reopening. California governor has implied they will need a vaccine.

Pritzker, as reported in the Washington Times, was quoted much as you wrote.

The Chicago Tribune called his stance too extreme.

Pritzker accurately said that he has offered a reopening plan, and that his emphasis was that things would not be returning to normal.

The back-and forth reads like process & degree skirmishes, and resulting misunderstandings borne of exaggerated language and interpretations of the type I find unhelpful.


Even taken in the worst light, Pritzker's specific wording seems rare, and unsurprisingly occasioned criticism that makes sense to me. His point of view, even absent legitimate qualifications, does not seem widespread. If it did, I'd share more of your concern.

I appreciate your responding with specificity, and think your having done so was helpful to my understanding by providing a source, and to to my sense that this is not an issue to the troublesome degree I've gotten from some of what you've written.

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

Ok, testing is not the solution. In order for testing to be the solution, you’d have to test every citizen in the country on a regular basis which is not even close to possible. Any data helps, but more testing won’t do much to slow the spread. Millions of people will still be walking around with the virus while being asymptomatic.

so wouldnt testing help to show that? The countries that have seemed to slow the virus or limit the exposure have done mass testing early on. We've screwed that up.

 

[JimHurley]

so wouldnt testing help to show that? The countries that have seemed to slow the virus or limit the exposure have done mass testing early on. We've screwed that up.

It would help, but it wouldn’t be enough. That’s what I’m saying. For testing to be the end all solution, we’d need to test every person who leaves their house every day. Without that, there will always been people carrying the virus without knowing it.

 

[NJHusky]

Do you believe you won't have additional spikes?

I don't know and neither do you...nor do I believe does anyone else. the models were so far off they can't be considered models IMO. Fauci the guru, said in Jan and Feb this was nothing to be concerned about. The NY City Health Commissioner told people to go out...as did the Mayor...am I supposed to rely on them?

So we are supposed to stay locked down until Nov in case a second wave might happen? How about this...if it happens and starts to look like it will overwhelm hospitals...shut down again for a few weeks.

In the meantime we have 5 months of building herd immunity. And by some of the studies looks like some parts of the city have a 45%+ infection rate...so they are close.

 

[NJHusky]

there is no way testing is overrated. Any data we can collect is valuable.

At this point serology testing is the most useful piece of data

 

[cohenzone]

Cal has a huge

Closing schools makes no sense. The number of young adults being killed by the virus is close to zero. The CDC number is about one in a million for 18-24 year olds. Keep the kids and teachers with severe underlying conditions home doing online courses and let the rest go about business.

Let’s see the age groups by numbers of the faculty,building maintenance people etc before just looking at the students, who aren’t immune anyway simply,because they are younger. It ain’t that easy to replace professors.

 

[cohenzone]

I don't know and neither do you...nor do I believe does anyone else. the models were so far off they can't be considered models IMO. Fauci the guru, said in Jan and Feb this was nothing to be concerned about. The NY City Health Commissioner told people to go out...as did the Mayor...am I supposed to rely on them?

So we are supposed to stay locked down until Nov in case a second wave might happen? How about this...if it happens and starts to look like it will overwhelm hospitals...shut down again for a few weeks.

In the meantime we have 5 months of building herd immunity. And by some of the studies looks like some parts of the city have a 45%+ infection rate...so they are close.

I haven’t heard a single expert conclude that there will definitely be herd immunity or if there is, of what duration.

 

[NJHusky]

so wouldnt testing help to show that? The countries that have seemed to slow the virus or limit the exposure have done mass testing early on. We've screwed that up.

The head of the CDC should be fired...He was responsible for testing and they submitted a non functioning test. Once we got the private sector involved, testing has appeared. I can go online and schedule a test with quest labs..$119...so can you. Or I can go and wait in my car 10 min from my house for a free test. I can also go online and get a serology test...so can you.

 

[NJHusky]

I haven’t heard a single expert conclude that there will definitely be herd immunity or if there is, of what duration.

Maybe you should ask Anders Tegnell?

On another note...anyone see this article from the Israeli mathematician that says it has a 10 week cycle?
covid timeline

His numbers might not be far off based on the graph from Israel
Israel

 

[ctchamps]

I don't know and neither do you...nor do I believe does anyone else. the models were so far off they can't be considered models IMO. Fauci the guru, said in Jan and Feb this was nothing to be concerned about. The NY City Health Commissioner told people to go out...as did the Mayor...am I supposed to rely on them?

So we are supposed to stay locked down until Nov in case a second wave might happen? How about this...if it happens and starts to look like it will overwhelm hospitals...shut down again for a few weeks.

In the meantime we have 5 months of building herd immunity. And by some of the studies looks like some parts of the city have a 45%+ infection rate...so they are close.

I thought the POTUS said that. I had a back and forth with you early March and you thought I was over reacting to the seriousness of this situation.

 

[cohenzone]

Maybe you should ask Anders Tegnell?

You mean the guy who said they underestimated the potential death rate? Maybe we have to wait and see before concluding anything.