Bracketology 3/9/2019

[j66kicker]

Please don’t put Stanford in Chicago. The last couple times ND has played them. They’ve been a thorn in NDs side.

They are a thorn in everyone's side. Tara is a great coach - they just never go away...

 

[IrishTiger]

They are a thorn in everyone's side. Tara is a great coach - they just never go away...

Well by thorn I mean they’ve beaten us the last couple times.

 

[j66kicker]

Well by thorn I mean they’ve beaten us the last couple times.

We know the feeling. Never count Stanford out

 

[donalddoowop]

Does it really matter if UConn is a 1 or 2 seed?? IMO—NO! They will be in Albany either way. I think some fans spend too much energy on seeding.

Yes. A #1 seed would play a #4 seed. A #2 seed would play a #3 seed, which is usually a better team than the # 4 seed. The # 1 plays the weakest schedule.

 

[jaydee602]

Please don’t put Stanford in Chicago. The last couple times ND has played them. They’ve been a thorn in NDs side.

Since Oregon is destined for Portland & Iowa has been penciled in to play Baylor in Greensboro, Stanford is headed to Albany or Chicago. Since Louisville can't play ND, they will probably go to Albany vs. UCONN. That leaves Stanford vs. ND in Chicago.

 

[IrishTiger]

Since Oregon is destined for Portland & Iowa has been penciled in to play Baylor in Greensboro, Stanford is headed to Albany or Chicago. Since Louisville can't play ND, they will probably go to Albany vs. UCONN. That leaves Stanford vs. ND in Chicago.

I wonder if that could change and that they would put Iowa in Chicago. But You’re Probably right Stanford is probably gonna be in Chicago.

 

[jaydee602]

I wonder if that could change and that they would put Iowa one Chicago. But You’re Probably right Stanford is probably gonna be in Chicago.

LOL...Oh, it can definitely change. Unlike Charlie Creme, I have no idea how the unpredictable committee will select the brackets.

 

[biobioprof]

Creme just posted a new version

Greensboro
Baylor
Iowa
NC State
S Carolina

Chicago
Notre Dame
Stanford
Maryland
A&M

Albany
UConn
Louisville
Syracuse
Oregon State

Portland
Miss State
Oregon
Miami
Iowa St

 

[Alydar]

Frankly I'd rather play 3 seed Syracuse than 4 seed Oregon St. in the S16.

 

[j66kicker]

I wonder if that could change and that they would put Iowa in Chicago. But You’re Probably right Stanford is probably gonna be in Chicago.[/QUOTE]

Charlie agrees with you FWIW. Look out - if you get Tara when when she has a week to game plan for you, then you're toast. If you get her on the 2nd game of the weekend, then it's a level playing field (a concept unfamiliar to Domers, but... visualize..)

 

[Plebe]

Creme just posted a new version

Greensboro
Baylor
Iowa
NC State
S Carolina

Chicago
Notre Dame
Stanford
Maryland
A&M

Albany
UConn
Louisville
Syracuse
Oregon State

Portland
Miss State
Oregon
Miami
Iowa St

Although I disagree with his projection of Louisville's seeding, I do concur with him on the following:

• NC State as the #3 and South Carolina as the likely #4 in Greensboro.
• Syracuse in Albany (could be as a #3 or #4 IMO).

 

[IrishTiger]

Charlie agrees with you FWIW. Look out - if you get Tara when when she has a week to game plan for you, then you're toast. If you get her on the 2nd game of the weekend, then it's a level playing field (a concept unfamiliar to Domers, but... visualize..)

Well we’d be playing Stanford in the Elite 8. If both teams were to make it to that point. Yeah the game scares me but I’d also say Muffet is a pretty darn good game planner Herself.

 

[Orangutan]

I really don't see how Mississippi State should be a #1 seed, especially over Louisville.

This is Creme's reasoning: "The Bulldogs earned the No. 1 seed by completing the clean sweep of the SEC regular-season and tournament championships. Despite a weaker overall résumé than Louisville, Oregon and Stanford, Mississippi State is the only one with two titles and just two losses."

So Mississippi State gets a #1 seed despite a weaker overall resume just because they won the 5th-strongest conference by RPI? And Louisville doesn't get a #1 because they lost to the #1 RPI team in the championship game of the #1 RPI conference? That doesn't add up to me.

Louisville has the #3 RPI, #4 SOS, and is 12-3 against the RPI top 50.
Miss St. has the #8 RPI, #40 SOS, and is 8-2 against the RPI top 50.

All Miss St. has going for them is one fewer loss. Well, not everyone gets to play RPI #65 Arkansas in the final of their conference tourney. If Louisville got to play a weak opponent like that in their tourney final, they'd only have two losses, too.

Pre-conference tourney, their records are similar. Both one loss to a top-5 RPI team away (L'ville to ND, Miss St. to Oregon). Both one loss to a conference team at home (L'ville to Miami, Miss St. to Missouri).

Even then, ND is better than Oregon and Miami is better than Missouri. And Louisville's schedule is stronger overall. So their X-2 record in the regular season is better than Miss. St.

 

[CTtoSanDiego]

The latest Bracketology has Lousiville as UConn's #2... I like that matchup way better than Miss St (when they were a 2) and Oregon. We just need to take care of business against UCF tonight... and hope Creme and the Committee are in agreement!
Bracketology with Charlie Creme





LAST UPDATED: 3/11/19 12:25 AM ET | Automatic bids are in CAPS.

Albany
Storrs

1UCONN/AAC

16ROBERT MORRIS/NEC

8Rutgers

9North Carolina
Corvallis

5Kentucky

12BOISE STATE/MWC

4Oregon State

13LAMAR/SOUTHLAND
Syracuse

6UCLA

11Buffalo

3Syracuse

14MAINE/AMERICA EAST
Louisville

7Texas

10Auburn

2Louisville

15RADFORD/BIG SOUTH
Greensboro
Waco

1BAYLOR/BIG 12

16SOUTHERN/SWAC

8California

9Clemson
Charlotte*

5Arizona State

12JAMES MADISON/CAA

4South Carolina

13PRINCETON/IVY
Raleigh

6Missouri

11Ohio

3NC State

14FORDHAM/ATLANTIC 10
Iowa City

7CENTRAL MICHIGAN/MAC

10UCF

2IOWA/BIG TEN

15UC DAVIS/BIG WEST
Chicago
South Bend

1NOTRE DAME/ACC

16MERCER/SOUTHERN

8Michigan

9BYU
College Station

5MARQUETTE/BIG EAST

12QUINNIPIAC/MAAC

4Texas A&M

13WRIGHT STATE/HORIZON
College Park

6Florida State

11Tennessee

3Maryland

14UT ARLINGTON/SUN BELT
Stanford

7South Dakota

10Kansas State

2STANFORD/PAC-12

15NEW MEXICO STATE/WAC
Portland
Starkville

1MISSISSIPPI STATE/SEC

16NORTH CAROLINA A&T/MEAC

8DePaul

9Michigan State
Ames

5GONZAGA/WCC

12BELMONT/OVC

4Iowa State

13BUCKNELL/PATRIOT
Miami

6SOUTH DAKOTA STATE/SUMMIT

11RICE/C-USA

3Miami

14FLORIDA GULF COAST/A-SUN
Eugene

7DRAKE/MVC

10Indiana

2Oregon

15IDAHO/BIG SKY

 

[jennyo70]

Please don’t put Stanford in Chicago. The last couple times ND has played them. They’ve been a thorn in NDs side.

This is not a new development, the committe has had them in Chicago both reveals. Just no pleasing you Irish folk is there?

 

[Plebe]

I really don't see how Mississippi State should be a #1 seed, especially over Louisville.

This is Creme's reasoning: "The Bulldogs earned the No. 1 seed by completing the clean sweep of the SEC regular-season and tournament championships. Despite a weaker overall résumé than Louisville, Oregon and Stanford, Mississippi State is the only one with two titles and just two losses."

So Mississippi State gets a #1 seed despite a weaker overall resume just because they won the 5th-strongest conference by RPI? And Louisville doesn't get a #1 because they lost to the #1 RPI team in the championship game of the #1 RPI conference? That doesn't add up to me.

I completely concur. And I'm basing this on the committe's own history of what it has done in the past. They've shown time and again that it's never been a question of just counting losses or counting titles.

The best parallel I can think of is Maryland in 2017. That year Maryland was 30-2 (only losses were to UConn and Ohio State) and won the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles. But their resume lacked high-quality wins. It was an especially down year for the Big Ten, and Maryland's best wins were over Louisville (a #4 seed) and Arizona State (a #8 seed). Although some thought Maryland "looked like" a #1 seed, ultimately the committee named Maryland the #3 seed in UConn's region, while other teams *with more losses* and *fewer titles* were named #2 seeds, like Duke (27-5), Mississippi St (29-4), Stanford (28-5) and Oregon State (29-4).

Mississippi State's resume is stronger this year than Maryland's was two years ago, and of course they're in no danger of being a #3 seed. But it's a similar situation. It has never been about counting losses or titles. It's all about *who* you've beaten and *who* you've lost to.

 

[jennyo70]

I am glad to see folks on here scratching their heads about Creme’s predicting Louisville to the 2 line.

Obviously I have a vested interest in it, but, I just don’t see it. Yes, we took a beating yesterday and it was terrible to watch. But we were down one starter, and played almost 3Q’s without a 2nd starter, an interior defender.
Our RPI is better, SOS is better, and the teams we beat to get to finals of the tourney were better wins than MS State.

I know Uconn is not the team of Uconn past, and while we do have a win over you this season, I have enormous respect for Coach Geno, the team and the program as a whole. No way I want to face you all again this season unless it is in the F4. Preferably the championship game.

I’m crossing my fingers that Creme is way off base on this one. One fan base is going to be extremely disappointed come Selection Monday.

 

[Vowelguy]

I am glad to see folks on here scratching their heads about Creme’s predicting Louisville to the 2 line.
.

I think the key question is the health of Fuehring & Carter. Any updates?

 

[Orangutan]

I think the key question is the health of Fuehring & Carter. Any updates?

Given that Carter was said to be a game-time decision and Fuehring was trying to play in the 2nd half, I'd have to imagine both would be good to go for the tournament.

 

[HuskyNan]

Louisville did not look like a number 1 seed to me. I realize ND had an outstanding game and Louisville had some key players out but Louisville was terrible rebounding and the defense was almost as bad. My top six
seeds would be 1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. ND 4. Oregon 5. MSST 6. Louisville.

UConn didn’t look like a #1 seed when it played Louisville. Every top team has its warts

 

[Jmsdawg]

UConn didn’t look like a #1 seed when it played Louisville. Every top team has its warts

UConn has always looked like a #1 seed to me. When they lost to Baylor and Louisville their outside game was off but they were still in those games. Louisville was never really in the game against ND and important elements to being elite are defense and rebounding the lack of which were apparent to me in Louisville performance against ND. Blame injuries for team chemistry but defense and rebounding are team effort. Remember the game Lou was hurt, it was defense the brought UConn back.

 

[DanishBulldog]

UConn didn’t look like a #1 seed when it played Louisville. Every top team has its warts

We have been talking 6 teams for a while, but Stanford certainly makes it a 7-team field at a minimum, and any of those 7 teams can be taken down if they have an off night or an injury. If the seeds hold serve, the Elite 8 games will be must see TV this year.

On another topic, being the 4th #1 seed isn't much of a reward. You get to go to Portland to play Oregon in a virtual home game. I would like to see Stanford get the 4th #1 and have us be the #2 in that region. Stanford looks really good, but I would rather play them in Portland than Oregon.

 

[biobioprof]

We have been talking 6 teams for a while, but Stanford certainly makes it a 7-team field at a minimum, and any of those 7 teams can be taken down if they have an off night or an injury. If the seeds hold serve, the Elite 8 games will be must see TV this year.

On another topic, being the 4th #1 seed isn't much of a reward. You get to go to Portland to play Oregon in a virtual home game. I would like to see Stanford get the 4th #1 and have us be the #2 in that region. Stanford looks really good, but I would rather play them in Portland than Oregon.

I think the geography rules would put Oregon in Portland and move Stanford somewhere else if Stanford got a 1 seed. Similarly, I believe UConn would still get Albany as a 2 seed.

 

[DallasBUFan]

I secretly wish A&M was the 4 seed in the Baylor region or at least have Texas at A&M.

 

[Jmsdawg]

We have been talking 6 teams for a while, but Stanford certainly makes it a 7-team field at a minimum, and any of those 7 teams can be taken down if they have an off night or an injury. If the seeds hold serve, the Elite 8 games will be must see TV this year.

On another topic, being the 4th #1 seed isn't much of a reward. You get to go to Portland to play Oregon in a virtual home game. I would like to see Stanford get the 4th #1 and have us be the #2 in that region. Stanford looks really good, but I would rather play them in Portland than Oregon.

Have to agree with that but still think we are better off in Portland than Albany.