Bracketology 3/9/2019

[Plebe]

I really don't see how Mississippi State should be a #1 seed, especially over Louisville.

This is Creme's reasoning: "The Bulldogs earned the No. 1 seed by completing the clean sweep of the SEC regular-season and tournament championships. Despite a weaker overall résumé than Louisville, Oregon and Stanford, Mississippi State is the only one with two titles and just two losses."

So Mississippi State gets a #1 seed despite a weaker overall resume just because they won the 5th-strongest conference by RPI? And Louisville doesn't get a #1 because they lost to the #1 RPI team in the championship game of the #1 RPI conference? That doesn't add up to me.

I completely concur. And I'm basing this on the committe's own history of what it has done in the past. They've shown time and again that it's never been a question of just counting losses or counting titles.

The best parallel I can think of is Maryland in 2017. That year Maryland was 30-2 (only losses were to UConn and Ohio State) and won the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles. But their resume lacked high-quality wins. It was an especially down year for the Big Ten, and Maryland's best wins were over Louisville (a #4 seed) and Arizona State (a #8 seed). Although some thought Maryland "looked like" a #1 seed, ultimately the committee named Maryland the #3 seed in UConn's region, while other teams *with more losses* and *fewer titles* were named #2 seeds, like Duke (27-5), Mississippi St (29-4), Stanford (28-5) and Oregon State (29-4).

Mississippi State's resume is stronger this year than Maryland's was two years ago, and of course they're in no danger of being a #3 seed. But it's a similar situation. It has never been about counting losses or titles. It's all about *who* you've beaten and *who* you've lost to.

 

[jennyo70]

I am glad to see folks on here scratching their heads about Creme’s predicting Louisville to the 2 line.

Obviously I have a vested interest in it, but, I just don’t see it. Yes, we took a beating yesterday and it was terrible to watch. But we were down one starter, and played almost 3Q’s without a 2nd starter, an interior defender.
Our RPI is better, SOS is better, and the teams we beat to get to finals of the tourney were better wins than MS State.

I know Uconn is not the team of Uconn past, and while we do have a win over you this season, I have enormous respect for Coach Geno, the team and the program as a whole. No way I want to face you all again this season unless it is in the F4. Preferably the championship game.

I’m crossing my fingers that Creme is way off base on this one. One fan base is going to be extremely disappointed come Selection Monday.

 

[Vowelguy]

I am glad to see folks on here scratching their heads about Creme’s predicting Louisville to the 2 line.
.

I think the key question is the health of Fuehring & Carter. Any updates?

 

[Orangutan]

I think the key question is the health of Fuehring & Carter. Any updates?

Given that Carter was said to be a game-time decision and Fuehring was trying to play in the 2nd half, I'd have to imagine both would be good to go for the tournament.

 

[HuskyNan]

Louisville did not look like a number 1 seed to me. I realize ND had an outstanding game and Louisville had some key players out but Louisville was terrible rebounding and the defense was almost as bad. My top six
seeds would be 1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. ND 4. Oregon 5. MSST 6. Louisville.

UConn didn’t look like a #1 seed when it played Louisville. Every top team has its warts

 

[Jmsdawg]

UConn didn’t look like a #1 seed when it played Louisville. Every top team has its warts

UConn has always looked like a #1 seed to me. When they lost to Baylor and Louisville their outside game was off but they were still in those games. Louisville was never really in the game against ND and important elements to being elite are defense and rebounding the lack of which were apparent to me in Louisville performance against ND. Blame injuries for team chemistry but defense and rebounding are team effort. Remember the game Lou was hurt, it was defense the brought UConn back.

 

[DanishBulldog]

UConn didn’t look like a #1 seed when it played Louisville. Every top team has its warts

We have been talking 6 teams for a while, but Stanford certainly makes it a 7-team field at a minimum, and any of those 7 teams can be taken down if they have an off night or an injury. If the seeds hold serve, the Elite 8 games will be must see TV this year.

On another topic, being the 4th #1 seed isn't much of a reward. You get to go to Portland to play Oregon in a virtual home game. I would like to see Stanford get the 4th #1 and have us be the #2 in that region. Stanford looks really good, but I would rather play them in Portland than Oregon.

 

[biobioprof]

We have been talking 6 teams for a while, but Stanford certainly makes it a 7-team field at a minimum, and any of those 7 teams can be taken down if they have an off night or an injury. If the seeds hold serve, the Elite 8 games will be must see TV this year.

On another topic, being the 4th #1 seed isn't much of a reward. You get to go to Portland to play Oregon in a virtual home game. I would like to see Stanford get the 4th #1 and have us be the #2 in that region. Stanford looks really good, but I would rather play them in Portland than Oregon.

I think the geography rules would put Oregon in Portland and move Stanford somewhere else if Stanford got a 1 seed. Similarly, I believe UConn would still get Albany as a 2 seed.

 

[DallasBUFan]

I secretly wish A&M was the 4 seed in the Baylor region or at least have Texas at A&M.

 

[Jmsdawg]

We have been talking 6 teams for a while, but Stanford certainly makes it a 7-team field at a minimum, and any of those 7 teams can be taken down if they have an off night or an injury. If the seeds hold serve, the Elite 8 games will be must see TV this year.

On another topic, being the 4th #1 seed isn't much of a reward. You get to go to Portland to play Oregon in a virtual home game. I would like to see Stanford get the 4th #1 and have us be the #2 in that region. Stanford looks really good, but I would rather play them in Portland than Oregon.

Have to agree with that but still think we are better off in Portland than Albany.

 

[Jmsdawg]

I think the geography rules would put Oregon in Portland and move Stanford somewhere else if Stanford got a 1 seed. Similarly, I believe UConn would still get Albany as a 2 seed.

If the number 1 seeds are Baylor, ND, UConn, and Stanford, Certainly ND will be in Chicago, UConn in Albany, Baylor in Greensboro, so that leaves Stanford, as number one seed, in Portland.

 

[skilz]

Miss State should be the 4th seed, especially after winning the SEC Tournament. Just my vote! Would that send Baylor to Portland??

 

[DallasBUFan]

Miss State should be the 4th seed, especially after winning the SEC Tournament. Just my vote! Would that send Baylor to Portland??

No....

 

[Crazyhorse]

Creme has FSU projected to play Tenn in the first round, can I count on UConn fans to root for the Noles?

 

[Vowelguy]

Creme has FSU projected to play Tenn in the first round, can I count on UConn fans to root for the Noles?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. It's cute that you felt the need to ask.

 

[Plebe]

Creme has FSU projected to play Tenn in the first round, can I count on UConn fans to root for the Noles?

That depends. Can you guarantee us a win? FSU did lose to LSU, ya know...

 

[oldude]

Creme has FSU projected to play Tenn in the first round, can I count on UConn fans to root for the Noles?

Actually, UConn fans are torn between their desire to see TN lose every game and their desire to see HW as the HC of the LV’s forever.

 

[Crazyhorse]

That depends. Can you guarantee us a win? FSU did lose to LSU, ya know...

I cannot guarantee a win

 

[Plebe]

I cannot guarantee a win

I'm just giving you a hard time.

Let me put it this way. When Tennessee plays Notre Dame is the one and only time I *ever* root for the Fighting Irish.

 

[Crazyhorse]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. It's cute that you felt the need to ask.

I guess being polite is out of vogue.

 

[Crazyhorse]

I'm just giving you a hard time.

Let me put it this way. When Tennessee plays Notre Dame is the one and only time I *ever* root for the Flighty Irish.

I am just about the same regarding the Irish, except I will never, ever root for them

 

[bballnut90]

I think Louisville is still positioned to be a 1 seed, but getting throttled in the ACC tournament doesnt look good for them.

Mississippi State I'd put as the top 2 seed, followed by Stanford and then Oregon. If Stanford is ahead of Oregon do they get Portland over the Ducks?? I'd expect Oregon State to be placed in Portland as the 4 if the Ducks arent.

Based on S curve I'd select:
1. Baylor
8. Iowa

2. Notre Dame
7. Oregon

3. UCONN
6. Stanford

4. Louisville
5. Mississippi State


But if we go based on geography (meaning top 2 seed plays in regional closest to home regardless of who the 1 seed is):
1. Baylor (Greensboro)
2. Mississippi State

1. Notre Dame (Chicago)
2. Oregon

1. UCONN (Albany)
2. Iowa

1. Louisville (Portland)
2. Stanford

 

[Jmsdawg]

I think Louisville is still positioned to be a 1 seed, but getting throttled in the ACC tournament doesnt look good for them.

Mississippi State I'd put as the top 2 seed, followed by Stanford and then Oregon. If Stanford is ahead of Oregon do they get Portland over the Ducks?? I'd expect Oregon State to be placed in Portland as the 4 if the Ducks arent.

Based on S curve I'd select:
1. Baylor
8. Iowa

2. Notre Dame
7. Oregon

3. UCONN
6. Stanford

4. Louisville
5. Mississippi State


But if we go based on geography (meaning top 2 seed plays in regional closest to home regardless of who the 1 seed is):
1. Baylor (Greensboro)
2. Mississippi State

1. Notre Dame (Chicago)
2. Oregon

1. UCONN (Albany)
2. Iowa

1. Louisville (Portland)
2. Stanford

This may sound stupid but I would prefer MSST to play Baylor at Greensboro than UConn in Albany or Oregon in Portland. I think our best match would be Louisville anywhere!

 

[DallasBUFan]

This may sound stupid but I would prefer MSST to play Baylor at Greensboro than UConn in Albany or Oregon in Portland. I think our best match would be Louisville anywhere!

I think y'all would be better served vs either of those over Baylor. As y'all have what we have a 6'7 center.

 

[Jmsdawg]

I think y'all would be better served vs either of those over Baylor. As y'all have what we have a 6'7 center.

We play great defense! Better than we did 2 years ago last time we met. Baylor is a really good team and we would have to play our A game to win but Baylor would have to play their A game also. To me that is the game I want to see!

 

[DallasBUFan]

We play great defense! Better than we did 2 years ago last time we met. Baylor is a really good team and we would have to play our A game to win but Baylor would have to play their A game also. To me that is the game I want to see!

The goal is to win a Championship and y'alls strengths work better against teams like UConn and Louisville. So I am surprised that y'all would want to play us considering your two bigger strengths are our biggest strengths. So they would possibly offset.

 

[SLY63]

In the latest Bracketology, can L'ville and Syracuse be the 2 and 3 in Albany? I thought conference rivals cannot meet until the regional final.

 

[Vowelguy]

My 16:

1. Bay
2. ND
3. Lou
4. UConn
5. Ore
6. Miss St
7. Stan
8. Iowa
9. NC St
10. MD
11. Ore St
12. Mia
13. Syra
14. SoCar
15. IowaSt
16. TAMU

UConn / Miss St / Ore St / Syra [34]
Bay / Iowa / NC St / TAMU [34]
ND / Stan / MD / Iowa St [34]
Lou / Ore / Mia / SoCar [34]

 

[Crazyhorse]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. It's cute that you felt the need to ask.

Why are you so rude?

 

[Plebe]

In the latest bracket, can L'ville and Syracuse be the 2 and 3 in Albany? I thought conference rivals cannot meet until the regional final.

This is not a hard-and-fast rule *unless* the teams have already played each other 3 times.

There is a principle that says the committee "will attempt" to prevent conference rivals from meeting until the regional final, but that's not a hard-and-fast rule. There are other principles that can take precedence.