Bracketology 3/9/2019 | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Bracketology 3/9/2019

does it seem crazy to keep listing both ND and Louisville as 1 seeds. The winner will be a one seed but unless it is a one point game the loser of the ACC champ game will drop to a 2 and Miss St will move up to a one, assuming they take care of business. And assuming UConn and Baylor win out.
 
Ralph said:
does it seem crazy to keep listing both ND and Louisville as 1 seeds. The winner will be a one seed but unless it is a one point game the loser of the ACC champ game will drop to a 2 and Miss St will move up to a one, assuming they take care of business. And assuming UConn and Baylor win out.
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ACC loser is not going to get punished for losing to a #1 seed

Miss St is unlikely to move ahead of the ACC loser. Beating TAMU is no better than what the ACC teams did today in beating NCSt/Syra.

Miss St will also get leapfrogged by Oregon if the Ducks win out.

MSU needs Oregon to lose and UConn to lose or be very shaky OR an ACC final blowout. Then and only then do they have a shot at a #1.
 
Plebe said:
I predict that if Maryland wins tomorrow then Maryland is the 2 and NC State the 3 in Greensboro. Or vice versa. Could be a rematch of last year's 4/5 game in Raleigh.
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That would be wonderful for Greensboro. Throw in South Carolina as the #4... and there will be some very happy people here.
 
vowelguy said:
ACC loser is not going to get punished for losing to a #1 seed

Miss St is unlikely to move ahead of the ACC loser. Beating TAMU is no better than what the ACC teams did today in beating NCSt/Syra.

Miss St will also get leapfrogged by Oregon if the Ducks win out.

MSU needs Oregon to lose and UConn to lose or be very shaky OR an ACC final blowout. Then and only then do they have a shot at a #1.
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I don't think MSU will overtake either ND or Louisville even with a blowout. Their only hope is both Oregon and UConn faltering.
 
triaddukefan said:
That would be wonderful for Greensboro. Throw in South Carolina as the #4... and there will be some very happy people here.
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Those happy people would NOT be Baylor fans - all three of their lower seeded possible matchups would have quasi-home/conference court advantage. ;)
 
TheFarmFan said:
Those happy people would NOT be Baylor fans - all three of their lower seeded possible matchups would have quasi-home/conference court advantage. ;)
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If they bring me chicken fried steak and mashed potatoes.... I'll consider rooting for them :D

Ive warmed up to the idea of Baylor being in Greensboro. I wanted Miss State for most of the season to be the #1...... but I kinda want to see whats Baylor is made out of in person.
 
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Miss St's definitely not passing ACC loser now.

And TAMU's hosting probability went down a smidge. Still more likely than not, but ...
 
vowelguy said:
Vs RPI50:

Tenn 4-8
Ark 1-9

Vs rest:
Tenn 15-4
Ark 18-4
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Huge win for Arkansas....they *should* jump Tennessee at this point.

It's easy to point out 4-8>2-9 for top 50, but two of Tennessee's wins were over #48 Auburn while both of Arkansas' wins are over top 20 RPI teams. Tennessee's other wins are over #27 and #29...slight edge to Arkansas IMO, or at worst a draw. Tennessee's losses to Alabama and Vandy are both much worse than any loss Arkansas has too. Eye test definitely says Ark and they won head to head in Knoxville. I am biased since I want Tennessee to miss the NCAAs in hopes that Holly gets fired but at this point they are the better team and are more deserving of a bid.
 
bballnut90 said:
Huge win for Arkansas....they *should* jump Tennessee at this point.

It's easy to point out 4-8>2-9 for top 50, but two of Tennessee's wins were over #48 Auburn while both of Arkansas' wins are over top 20 RPI teams. Tennessee's other wins are over #27 and #29...slight edge to Arkansas IMO, or at worst a draw. Tennessee's losses to Alabama and Vandy are both much worse than any loss Arkansas has too. Eye test definitely says Ark and they won head to head in Knoxville. I am biased since I want Tennessee to miss the NCAAs in hopes that Holly gets fired but at this point they are the better team and are more deserving of a bid.
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Ha well at least you’ve acknowledged you’re biased :)

If Arkansas can win tomorrow, then I really really really like their chances of jumping Tennessee :rolleyes:
 
Tennessee 3 bad losses Georgia 115, Alabama 159, and Vanderbilt 205. Arkansas 3 bad losses Georgia 105 2 Times, and Pittsburgh 121. Arkansas has 2 good wins
Over top 20 teams, Tennessee has none.
 
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vowelguy said:
Ark lost to Pitt.
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Pits RPI is 124. Alabama is 158 and Vandy is 204. If you use RPI as a measurement, Tennessee's losses are significantly worse.
 
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hoopsfan22 said:
That used to happen with UConn-ND when they were both in the Big East. We'd have a home and home with them in the regular season, then play them again in the Big East tourney, then again in the NCAA tourney. That happened in 2012-13.
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Maryland and Duke met four times as well in 2005-6.
 
bballnut90 said:
I am. I'd venture a guess that 80% or more of the fan base wants her out. Aside from my personal biases, she's just bad for womens basketball at this point with how much talent she accumulates and throws away. Her/Aston/McCallie shouldnt be at P5 schools.
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I quite agree with your analysis. Mmes. Warlick, McCallie and Aston seem to me simply to take their pkayers’ Skills and utilize them as they are. In my opinion part of the job of a COLLEGE coach is to develop the players and this they do not do, which is I think doing a disservice to the young ladies in their charge.

Though I’m not a fan of Tennessee, I think seeing Ms. Warlick’s results makes anyone realize how good a coach Pat Summit was.
 
I also wouldn't put it past the Committee to drop us to the 2 line even if we win out.

Our resume just is not that impressive, and isn't getting more impressive in the AACT, in contrast to P5 teams that are beating other contenders.

That said, there's only a small difference between us as #1 and MSU as #2 in Albany, and vice versa.
 
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I hope Tennessee makes the tourney. As much as I'd like to see them miss it to break their streak, I want Holly to stay there forever and missing the tourney might do her in. I wouldn't mind even seeing them win a couple games in the tourney. Go Holly!!
 
I'm now at the point where I think Arkansas is almost at parity with Tennessee in terms of their claim to the right to go dancing. Massey now has Ark at 52 barely behind Tennessee at 47, and Tennessee's edge is largely the result of a stronger SOS, which may narrow once Arkansas's second game against Miss. St. is included.

One counter-argument might be that the committee also likes to reward strong OOC scheduling, and the Razorbacks' only notable OOC opponents were Arizona State and Iowa State. But those are not clearly worse than Tennessee's Stanford and Texas games, and Arkansas did beat Tennessee in their only meet this season. It would seem unfair to punish them for having had an easier conference schedule, which they can't control.

If Arkansas can keep it close against Miss. St., it'll be interesting to see what the committee does, because in past years, especially on the men's side, at least, there has been a propensity to (a) reward teams peaking in March; and (b) select teams with better wins even if they have worse losses, both of which make sense if you want an exciting tournament. A consistent team that never beats really good teams and never loses to really bad teams is less of a draw than an inconsistent team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone depending on the day.

Thus, I now wouldn't be surprised if Arkansas can squeak its way in, nor would I be surprised if UCLA has an outside chance at a 5 seed. At this point in the season, I'd much rather play Gonzaga or Marquette than UCLA if I'm prospective four seeds South Carolina or Texas A&M staring at Creme's latest bracketology.
 
As a MState alum and fan, I am not concerned about where we go or what our seed is. We are going to be a #2 seed regardless.
Basically the top 6 are going to have beat one or two of the other six barring an upset (which is possible). There are teams from #7-25 capable on a given night of beating one of the top 6. Not necessarily likely but very possible.
So as Al Davis used to say back in the day “ Just Win Baby” definitely applies here. Regardless of who you are playing, your team had better be ready to play its best game.
Sometimes a perceived easier bracket ends up being tougher in reality. You just never know.
State playing Arkansas today is intriguing. Will the emotion carry over for the Lady Hogs? Sometimes the hot team can take down a better team. So we will see what happens.
 
oldude said:
I don’t know. Taking down two ranked teams back to back in March, when TN has but one victory all season long over a ranked team (TX in Dec) makes a pretty strong case for the Razorbacks.

Sometimes I wonder if Creme is on TN’s payroll.
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No ESPN's. And who shows the SEC Network? And which SEC team still has the biggest national audience?

Get it?
 
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Charlie's updated bracket, as of this morning (before today's games):
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Last 4 in: Indiana, Buffalo, Tennessee, Ohio
First 4 out: Butler, TCU, Arkansas, Virginia Tech
Next 4 out: St. Mary's, USC, West Virginia, LSU
 
Plebe said:
Yeah I completely disagree as well. I think he's making a bigger deal out of the margin of victory than the committee will.
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Agree. Makes no sense to me when they lost by a lot without their best big and best bench player to one of the top 4 teams in the country.
 
UCBaller2012 said:
genius Creme drops Louisville to the 2 line lol completely disagree
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Louisville did not look like a number 1 seed to me. I realize ND had an outstanding game and Louisville had some key players out but Louisville was terrible rebounding and the defense was almost as bad. My top six
seeds would be 1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. ND 4. Oregon 5. MSST 6. Louisville.
 
OK - possible insight on Charlie's thought process:

When asked on the halftime show just now if UConn should remain a #1 seed, Charlie said that UConn has been criticized for their weak conference schedule, and some don't think they deserve the #1 seed, but their only losses have been to the two best teams. He thinks UConn is still on the #1 seed line because the committee had them as a #1 in their last reveal, and nothing has happened since then that would change that.
 
Andy Landers lobbying Charlie for Miss State to be a #1 ("Winning both the SEC regular season and conference tournament is a strong statement, yada yada yada..."). Charlie says the only way that happens is if Oregon loses to Stanford today, and even then Miss State would go to Portland as the #1 and Oregon would be there as the #2. Andy gets his back up and tells Charlie, "You're not going to go down to Starksville and say that, are you?"
 
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