Bracketology 3/9/2019

[hoopsfan22]

Does anyone know if there are any guidelines regarding playing a team that you've already played--not once, not twice, not three times, but four? That would be the case if both Oregon and UCLA make it to the Sweet 16 in his current Portland bracket. Avoiding teams you've already played may be unavoidable, but 4x seems a bit much to me.

That used to happen with UConn-ND when they were both in the Big East. We'd have a home and home with them in the regular season, then play them again in the Big East tourney, then again in the NCAA tourney. That happened in 2012-13.

 

[Plebe]

Does anyone know how the selection committee can release the brackets on Monday before the AAC and Big 12 championship games have been played? Don't they have to wait to see who gets the auto bids?

Selection Monday is on March 18, nine days from now.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Selection Monday is on March 18, nine days from now.

Oh ok. I just heard them say during the game they were releasing them at 7 PM Monday.

 

[triaddukefan]

I wonder if Maryland wins the Big 10 tourney will put them as the #2 in Greensboro

 

[Plebe]

I wonder if Maryland wins the Big 10 tourney will put them as the #2 in Greensboro

I predict that if Maryland wins tomorrow then Maryland is the 2 and NC State the 3 in Greensboro. Or vice versa. Could be a rematch of last year's 4/5 game in Raleigh.

 

[Ralph]

does it seem crazy to keep listing both ND and Louisville as 1 seeds. The winner will be a one seed but unless it is a one point game the loser of the ACC champ game will drop to a 2 and Miss St will move up to a one, assuming they take care of business. And assuming UConn and Baylor win out.

 

[Vowelguy]

does it seem crazy to keep listing both ND and Louisville as 1 seeds. The winner will be a one seed but unless it is a one point game the loser of the ACC champ game will drop to a 2 and Miss St will move up to a one, assuming they take care of business. And assuming UConn and Baylor win out.

ACC loser is not going to get punished for losing to a #1 seed

Miss St is unlikely to move ahead of the ACC loser. Beating TAMU is no better than what the ACC teams did today in beating NCSt/Syra.

Miss St will also get leapfrogged by Oregon if the Ducks win out.

MSU needs Oregon to lose and UConn to lose or be very shaky OR an ACC final blowout. Then and only then do they have a shot at a #1.

 

[triaddukefan]

I predict that if Maryland wins tomorrow then Maryland is the 2 and NC State the 3 in Greensboro. Or vice versa. Could be a rematch of last year's 4/5 game in Raleigh.

That would be wonderful for Greensboro. Throw in South Carolina as the #4... and there will be some very happy people here.

 

[Plebe]

ACC loser is not going to get punished for losing to a #1 seed

Miss St is unlikely to move ahead of the ACC loser. Beating TAMU is no better than what the ACC teams did today in beating NCSt/Syra.

Miss St will also get leapfrogged by Oregon if the Ducks win out.

MSU needs Oregon to lose and UConn to lose or be very shaky OR an ACC final blowout. Then and only then do they have a shot at a #1.

I don't think MSU will overtake either ND or Louisville even with a blowout. Their only hope is both Oregon and UConn faltering.

 

[TheFarmFan]

That would be wonderful for Greensboro. Throw in South Carolina as the #4... and there will be some very happy people here.

Those happy people would NOT be Baylor fans - all three of their lower seeded possible matchups would have quasi-home/conference court advantage.

 

[triaddukefan]

Those happy people would NOT be Baylor fans - all three of their lower seeded possible matchups would have quasi-home/conference court advantage.

If they bring me chicken fried steak and mashed potatoes.... I'll consider rooting for them

Ive warmed up to the idea of Baylor being in Greensboro. I wanted Miss State for most of the season to be the #1...... but I kinda want to see whats Baylor is made out of in person.

 

[Vowelguy]

Miss St's definitely not passing ACC loser now.

And TAMU's hosting probability went down a smidge. Still more likely than not, but ...

 

[bballnut90]

Vs RPI50:

Tenn 4-8
Ark 1-9

Vs rest:
Tenn 15-4
Ark 18-4

Huge win for Arkansas....they *should* jump Tennessee at this point.

It's easy to point out 4-8>2-9 for top 50, but two of Tennessee's wins were over #48 Auburn while both of Arkansas' wins are over top 20 RPI teams. Tennessee's other wins are over #27 and #29...slight edge to Arkansas IMO, or at worst a draw. Tennessee's losses to Alabama and Vandy are both much worse than any loss Arkansas has too. Eye test definitely says Ark and they won head to head in Knoxville. I am biased since I want Tennessee to miss the NCAAs in hopes that Holly gets fired but at this point they are the better team and are more deserving of a bid.

 

[Plebe]

Huge win for Arkansas....they *should* jump Tennessee at this point.

It's easy to point out 4-8>2-9 for top 50, but two of Tennessee's wins were over #48 Auburn while both of Arkansas' wins are over top 20 RPI teams. Tennessee's other wins are over #27 and #29...slight edge to Arkansas IMO, or at worst a draw. Tennessee's losses to Alabama and Vandy are both much worse than any loss Arkansas has too. Eye test definitely says Ark and they won head to head in Knoxville. I am biased since I want Tennessee to miss the NCAAs in hopes that Holly gets fired but at this point they are the better team and are more deserving of a bid.

Ha well at least you’ve acknowledged you’re biased

If Arkansas can win tomorrow, then I really really really like their chances of jumping Tennessee

 

[Vowelguy]

Tennessee's losses to Alabama and Vandy are both much worse than any loss Arkansas has too.

Ark lost to Pitt.

 

[Vowelguy]

Ark lost to Pitt.

And 71-34 to LSU.

 

[baggerbob]

Tennessee 3 bad losses Georgia 115, Alabama 159, and Vanderbilt 205. Arkansas 3 bad losses Georgia 105 2 Times, and Pittsburgh 121. Arkansas has 2 good wins
Over top 20 teams, Tennessee has none.

 

[bballnut90]

Ark lost to Pitt.

Pits RPI is 124. Alabama is 158 and Vandy is 204. If you use RPI as a measurement, Tennessee's losses are significantly worse.

 

[triaddukefan]

That used to happen with UConn-ND when they were both in the Big East. We'd have a home and home with them in the regular season, then play them again in the Big East tourney, then again in the NCAA tourney. That happened in 2012-13.

Maryland and Duke met four times as well in 2005-6.

 

[HuskyNan]

Oh ok. I just heard them say during the game they were releasing them at 7 PM Monday.

Th NCAA releases in-season brackets saying that if the season ended today, this is what the bracket would be. I assume it’s a marketing thing to build fan interest

 

[willingtonfan]

I am. I'd venture a guess that 80% or more of the fan base wants her out. Aside from my personal biases, she's just bad for womens basketball at this point with how much talent she accumulates and throws away. Her/Aston/McCallie shouldnt be at P5 schools.

I quite agree with your analysis. Mmes. Warlick, McCallie and Aston seem to me simply to take their pkayers’ Skills and utilize them as they are. In my opinion part of the job of a COLLEGE coach is to develop the players and this they do not do, which is I think doing a disservice to the young ladies in their charge.

Though I’m not a fan of Tennessee, I think seeing Ms. Warlick’s results makes anyone realize how good a coach Pat Summit was.

 

[southie]

Nothing personal, but Maryland should be "punished" for having the 187-ranked non-conference SOS. Shameful, Brenda. That in itself should eliminate them from Top 16 consideration (if I were on the committee).

 

[Tenspro2002]

I also wouldn't put it past the Committee to drop us to the 2 line even if we win out.

Our resume just is not that impressive, and isn't getting more impressive in the AACT, in contrast to P5 teams that are beating other contenders.

That said, there's only a small difference between us as #1 and MSU as #2 in Albany, and vice versa.

 

[EricLA]

I hope Tennessee makes the tourney. As much as I'd like to see them miss it to break their streak, I want Holly to stay there forever and missing the tourney might do her in. I wouldn't mind even seeing them win a couple games in the tourney. Go Holly!!

 

[TheFarmFan]

I'm now at the point where I think Arkansas is almost at parity with Tennessee in terms of their claim to the right to go dancing. Massey now has Ark at 52 barely behind Tennessee at 47, and Tennessee's edge is largely the result of a stronger SOS, which may narrow once Arkansas's second game against Miss. St. is included.

One counter-argument might be that the committee also likes to reward strong OOC scheduling, and the Razorbacks' only notable OOC opponents were Arizona State and Iowa State. But those are not clearly worse than Tennessee's Stanford and Texas games, and Arkansas did beat Tennessee in their only meet this season. It would seem unfair to punish them for having had an easier conference schedule, which they can't control.

If Arkansas can keep it close against Miss. St., it'll be interesting to see what the committee does, because in past years, especially on the men's side, at least, there has been a propensity to (a) reward teams peaking in March; and (b) select teams with better wins even if they have worse losses, both of which make sense if you want an exciting tournament. A consistent team that never beats really good teams and never loses to really bad teams is less of a draw than an inconsistent team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone depending on the day.

Thus, I now wouldn't be surprised if Arkansas can squeak its way in, nor would I be surprised if UCLA has an outside chance at a 5 seed. At this point in the season, I'd much rather play Gonzaga or Marquette than UCLA if I'm prospective four seeds South Carolina or Texas A&M staring at Creme's latest bracketology.