Bracketology 3/9/2019 | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Bracketology 3/9/2019

j66kicker said:
Andy Landers lobbying Charlie for Miss State to be a #1 ("Winning both the SEC regular season and conference tournament is a strong statement, yada yada yada..."). Charlie says the only way that happens is if Oregon loses to Stanford today, and even then Miss State would go to Portland as the #1 and Oregon would be there as the #2. Andy gets his back up and tells Charlie, "You're not going to go down to Starksville and say that, are you?"
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Yep, Andy letting his SEC bias show. :rolleyes:
 
j66kicker said:
Andy Landers lobbying Charlie for Miss State to be a #1 ("Winning both the SEC regular season and conference tournament is a strong statement, yada yada yada..."). Charlie says the only way that happens is if Oregon loses to Stanford today, and even then Miss State would go to Portland as the #1 and Oregon would be there as the #2. Andy gets his back up and tells Charlie, "You're not going to go down to Starksville and say that, are you?"
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In other years that would be more impressive, but this year SEC is 5th-strongest RPI and MSU won title by beating only 1 solid tourney team (Mizzou), plus Tenn and Ark.
Also Bulldogs have 0 wins over the committee top 10.
 
Even though Louisville lost today in bad fashion.... the win vs Clemson and NC State is better than Miss State's wins this weekend. I would hate to see them lose a #1 because they ran into a freight train today.
 
oldude said:
I can't believe I'm agreeing with super troll, Kenny Kallina...:confused:
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Tough to reconcile the LVs ahead of TCU...can't see what bad losses TCU had? Can you? About the only thing the LVs have, is a modestly better SOS....but, a # of bad losses.....What am I missing? And, of course, none of their defenders want to go anywhere near their last eighteen games (can we say, 11 losses in their last 18 games, including to Vandy?).
 
Plebe said:
Ha Charlie responds to a tweet from super-troll Kenny Kallina:

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As per a previous post last year Creme got 31 of 32 (97%) at-Large bids correct and 56 of 64 within 1 seed (88%).

If he removes Tennessee in his last Bracketology before the actual bracket is announced then we will have evidence of his bias.
 
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Charlie on top teams: based on the last few weeks X team looks better and deserves that higher seed

Charlie on bubble teams: it is the full body of work you can’t just look at the last few weeks

:confused:
 
UCBaller2012 said:
Charlie on top teams: based on the last few weeks X team looks better and deserves that higher seed

Charlie on bubble teams: it is the full body of work you can’t just look at the last few weeks

:confused:
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The committee released its top 16 last Monday. So, yes, for the top teams, the thing that matters is performance since then.
For all other teams, we have no information from the committee, so the whole body of work is how you should evaluate the teams.
 
Why is it that people want to crucify Charlie Creme for giving his opinion about seeding.My god he is simply giving his best guess about what the committee might do.I find his estimates very amusing and hope he always continues to publish his potential bracket.I think the headings always let us know ahead of time that this bracketology stuff will appear on that particular thread.Simply don't click on it and save yourself a lot of unnecessary angst.
 
Does it really matter if UConn is a 1 or 2 seed?? IMO—NO! They will be in Albany either way. I think some fans spend too much energy on seeding.
 
Charlie Creme has just tweeted:
"Some ups and downs to Championship Sunday on the 1-line. Now the top seeds are Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn, and Mississippi St. The 2’s: Louisville, Oregon, Stanford, Iowa"
 
Developments on the bubble continue to break Tennessee’s way. Fellow bubble team Butler just lost tonight in the Big East quarterfinals to Creighton.

Along with Buffalo, TCU and West Virginia that makes 4 bubble teams that have lost in the last 2 days, making it less likely that TN will be left out. I’ll try to console myself with the thought that this will make it more likely that Holly stays.
 
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Jmsdawg said:
Louisville did not look like a number 1 seed to me. I realize ND had an outstanding game and Louisville had some key players out but Louisville was terrible rebounding and the defense was almost as bad. My top six
seeds would be 1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. ND 4. Oregon 5. MSST 6. Louisville.
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Revised top 6, 1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. ND 4. MSST 5. Oregon 6. Louisville, both Oregon and Louisville lost today but Louisville got blown out. Just MHO so we will have to wait until next Monday to see how close I came.
 
Jim R said:
Tough to reconcile the LVs ahead of TCU...can't see what bad losses TCU had? Can you? About the only thing the LVs have, is a modestly better SOS....but, a # of bad losses.....What am I missing? And, of course, none of their defenders want to go anywhere near their last eighteen games (can we say, 11 losses in their last 18 games, including to Vandy?).
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TCU has a loss to Oklahoma State, #143 in the RPI. Not as bad as the Vanderbilt loss, but still a bad loss. But the biggest weakness in TCU’s resume is that it’s light on quality wins. The Iowa State win is a really good one, but that and Kansas State are their only two wins over at-large-caliber teams. Tennessee has five of those wins. TCU also went 0-3 against Texas, a team TN beat on the road.

It’s a really close call. I could see the committee going either way on that.
 
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HuskyFan1125 said:
Does it really matter if UConn is a 1 or 2 seed?? IMO—NO! They will be in Albany either way. I think some fans spend too much energy on seeding.
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Yes. A #1 seed would play a #4 seed. A #2 seed would play a #3 seed, which is usually a better team than the # 4 seed. The # 1 plays the weakest schedule.
 
IrishTiger said:
Please don’t put Stanford in Chicago. The last couple times ND has played them. They’ve been a thorn in NDs side.
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Since Oregon is destined for Portland & Iowa has been penciled in to play Baylor in Greensboro, Stanford is headed to Albany or Chicago. Since Louisville can't play ND, they will probably go to Albany vs. UCONN. That leaves Stanford vs. ND in Chicago.
 
jaydee602 said:
Since Oregon is destined for Portland & Iowa has been penciled in to play Baylor in Greensboro, Stanford is headed to Albany or Chicago. Since Louisville can't play ND, they will probably go to Albany vs. UCONN. That leaves Stanford vs. ND in Chicago.
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I wonder if that could change and that they would put Iowa in Chicago. But You’re Probably right Stanford is probably gonna be in Chicago.
 
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IrishTiger said:
I wonder if that could change and that they would put Iowa one Chicago. But You’re Probably right Stanford is probably gonna be in Chicago.
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LOL...Oh, it can definitely change. Unlike Charlie Creme, I have no idea how the unpredictable committee will select the brackets.
 
Creme just posted a new version

Greensboro
Baylor
Iowa
NC State
S Carolina

Chicago
Notre Dame
Stanford
Maryland
A&M

Albany
UConn
Louisville
Syracuse
Oregon State

Portland
Miss State
Oregon
Miami
Iowa St
 
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IrishTiger said:
I wonder if that could change and that they would put Iowa in Chicago. But You’re Probably right Stanford is probably gonna be in Chicago.[/QUOTE]
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Charlie agrees with you FWIW. Look out - if you get Tara when when she has a week to game plan for you, then you're toast. If you get her on the 2nd game of the weekend, then it's a level playing field (a concept unfamiliar to Domers, but... visualize..)
 
biobioprof said:
Creme just posted a new version

Greensboro
Baylor
Iowa
NC State
S Carolina

Chicago
Notre Dame
Stanford
Maryland
A&M

Albany
UConn
Louisville
Syracuse
Oregon State

Portland
Miss State
Oregon
Miami
Iowa St
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Although I disagree with his projection of Louisville's seeding, I do concur with him on the following:
  • NC State as the #3 and South Carolina as the likely #4 in Greensboro.
  • Syracuse in Albany (could be as a #3 or #4 IMO).
 
j66kicker said:
Charlie agrees with you FWIW. Look out - if you get Tara when when she has a week to game plan for you, then you're toast. If you get her on the 2nd game of the weekend, then it's a level playing field (a concept unfamiliar to Domers, but... visualize..)
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Well we’d be playing Stanford in the Elite 8. If both teams were to make it to that point. Yeah the game scares me but I’d also say Muffet is a pretty darn good game planner Herself.
 
Last edited:
I really don't see how Mississippi State should be a #1 seed, especially over Louisville.

This is Creme's reasoning: "The Bulldogs earned the No. 1 seed by completing the clean sweep of the SEC regular-season and tournament championships. Despite a weaker overall résumé than Louisville, Oregon and Stanford, Mississippi State is the only one with two titles and just two losses."

So Mississippi State gets a #1 seed despite a weaker overall resume just because they won the 5th-strongest conference by RPI? And Louisville doesn't get a #1 because they lost to the #1 RPI team in the championship game of the #1 RPI conference? That doesn't add up to me.

Louisville has the #3 RPI, #4 SOS, and is 12-3 against the RPI top 50.
Miss St. has the #8 RPI, #40 SOS, and is 8-2 against the RPI top 50.

All Miss St. has going for them is one fewer loss. Well, not everyone gets to play RPI #65 Arkansas in the final of their conference tourney. If Louisville got to play a weak opponent like that in their tourney final, they'd only have two losses, too.

Pre-conference tourney, their records are similar. Both one loss to a top-5 RPI team away (L'ville to ND, Miss St. to Oregon). Both one loss to a conference team at home (L'ville to Miami, Miss St. to Missouri).

Even then, ND is better than Oregon and Miami is better than Missouri. And Louisville's schedule is stronger overall. So their X-2 record in the regular season is better than Miss. St.
 
The latest Bracketology has Lousiville as UConn's #2... I like that matchup way better than Miss St (when they were a 2) and Oregon. We just need to take care of business against UCF tonight... and hope Creme and the Committee are in agreement!
Bracketology with Charlie Creme





LAST UPDATED: 3/11/19 12:25 AM ET | Automatic bids are in CAPS.

Albany
Storrs

1UCONN/AAC

16ROBERT MORRIS/NEC

8Rutgers

9North Carolina
Corvallis

5Kentucky

12BOISE STATE/MWC

4Oregon State

13LAMAR/SOUTHLAND
Syracuse

6UCLA

11Buffalo

3Syracuse

14MAINE/AMERICA EAST
Louisville

7Texas

10Auburn

2Louisville

15RADFORD/BIG SOUTH
Greensboro
Waco

1BAYLOR/BIG 12

16SOUTHERN/SWAC

8California

9Clemson
Charlotte*

5Arizona State

12JAMES MADISON/CAA

4South Carolina

13PRINCETON/IVY
Raleigh

6Missouri

11Ohio

3NC State

14FORDHAM/ATLANTIC 10
Iowa City

7CENTRAL MICHIGAN/MAC

10UCF

2IOWA/BIG TEN

15UC DAVIS/BIG WEST
Chicago
South Bend

1NOTRE DAME/ACC

16MERCER/SOUTHERN

8Michigan

9BYU
College Station

5MARQUETTE/BIG EAST

12QUINNIPIAC/MAAC

4Texas A&M

13WRIGHT STATE/HORIZON
College Park

6Florida State

11Tennessee

3Maryland

14UT ARLINGTON/SUN BELT
Stanford

7South Dakota

10Kansas State

2STANFORD/PAC-12

15NEW MEXICO STATE/WAC
Portland
Starkville

1MISSISSIPPI STATE/SEC

16NORTH CAROLINA A&T/MEAC

8DePaul

9Michigan State
Ames

5GONZAGA/WCC

12BELMONT/OVC

4Iowa State

13BUCKNELL/PATRIOT
Miami

6SOUTH DAKOTA STATE/SUMMIT

11RICE/C-USA

3Miami

14FLORIDA GULF COAST/A-SUN
Eugene

7DRAKE/MVC

10Indiana

2Oregon

15IDAHO/BIG SKY

 
IrishTiger said:
Please don’t put Stanford in Chicago. The last couple times ND has played them. They’ve been a thorn in NDs side.
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This is not a new development, the committe has had them in Chicago both reveals. Just no pleasing you Irish folk is there? ;)
 
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