Bracketology 3/9/2019

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#1
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Iowa is now a #2 seed
Lady Vols 11 seed playing Arizona St and possibly NC State. IMO favorable match ups for them.
So Carolina now a #4 seed

Wondering if Arkansas beats Texas A&M today in the SEC tournament, will they make the tournament.
 

bballnut90

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#3
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Iowa is now a #2 seed
Lady Vols 11 seed playing Arizona St and possibly NC State. IMO favorable match ups for them.
So Carolina now a #4 seed

Wondering if Arkansas beats Texas A&M today in the SEC tournament, will they make the tournament.
I think Arkansas has an uphill battle still. I'm just praying the committee doesnt have Creme's optimism for Tennessee otherwise Holly 100% comes back next year.
 
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#6
If Arkansas beats A&M, two things could happen. The Razorbacks may be in and the Lady Vols may be out.
FWIW:

"Arkansas: The Razorbacks put up 95 points on South Carolina to become the first double-digit seed since 1993 to advance to the semifinals of the SEC tournament. Arkansas isn't going to be an at-large team, but its NCAA tournament hopes are still alive as a possible automatic qualifier, and sophomore Chelsea Dungee is becoming a household name in Fayetteville."
Women's bracketology winners and losers for Friday

 

oldude

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#7
FWIW:

"Arkansas: The Razorbacks put up 95 points on South Carolina to become the first double-digit seed since 1993 to advance to the semifinals of the SEC tournament. Arkansas isn't going to be an at-large team, but its NCAA tournament hopes are still alive as a possible automatic qualifier, and sophomore Chelsea Dungee is becoming a household name in Fayetteville."
Women's bracketology winners and losers for Friday

I don’t know. Taking down two ranked teams back to back in March, when TN has but one victory all season long over a ranked team (TX in Dec) makes a pretty strong case for the Razorbacks.

Sometimes I wonder if Creme is on TN’s payroll.
 
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#8
I don’t know. Taking down two ranked teams back to back in March, when TN has but one victory all season long over a ranked team (TX in Dec) makes a pretty strong case for the Razorbacks.

Sometimes I wonder if Creme is on TN’s payroll.
If you compare the resumes, he's right. And I say this as someone who doesn't want to see Tennessee and their hideous basketball in the tournament.

A win today would give Arkansas 2 high-quality wins, but that would be virtually all their resume has other than the win over Tennessee, and they also have 3 bad losses. Tennessee has 5 top 50 wins.

Tennessee might not make the tournament, but it won't be because Arkansas takes their at-large bid.
 

LETTERL

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#10
That wouldnt be a good second round matchup for NC State
I like the Raleigh pod in that latest Bracketology. Possible second-round matchup with a storied Tennessee program that, despite this year's struggles, is potentially dangerous. We haven't played Tennessee in several years but they have dominated the series against us.

I miss the good old days when NC State and Tennessee played almost every year (yes, once upon a time in the 70s and 80s, this was one of the south's great rivalries). The two teams met 11 times between 1976 and 1986...but we have only faced each other three times in the 2000s. The Lady Vols lead the series 12-3.
 

jonson

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#11
Does anyone know if there are any guidelines regarding playing a team that you've already played--not once, not twice, not three times, but four? That would be the case if both Oregon and UCLA make it to the Sweet 16 in his current Portland bracket. Avoiding teams you've already played may be unavoidable, but 4x seems a bit much to me.
 
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#12
Does anyone know if there are any guidelines regarding playing a team that you've already played--not once, not twice, not three times, but four? That would be the case if both Oregon and UCLA make it to the Sweet 16 in his current Portland bracket. Avoiding teams you've already played may be unavoidable, but 4x seems a bit much to me.
From the tournament manual:

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior​
to the regional final if they played each other three or​
more times during the regular season and conference​
tournament.​

So yes, the committee should not allow them to meet as early as the Sweet 16.
 
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#13
Doing some bubble math here:

The following 29 teams are absolute locks for the NCAAs, even with a conference tournament loss:
ACC: ND, Louisville, NC State, Miami, Syracuse, Florida St
SEC: Miss St, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kentucky
Big 12: Baylor, Iowa St, Texas
Big Ten: Iowa, Maryland, Rutgers
Pac-12: Oregon, Stanford, Oregon St, Arizona St, UCLA
Others: UConn, Marquette, Gonzaga, Drake, S. Dakota, S. Dakota St, Central Michigan

The following 9 teams are highly probable at-large teams (would be very hard to justify leaving them out):
ACC: Clemson, North Carolina
SEC: Auburn
Big 12: Kansas St
Big Ten: Michigan, Michigan St
Pac-12: Cal
Others: DePaul, BYU

The following 11 teams I would classify as possible at-large teams (assuming a conference tournament loss):
ACC: Virginia Tech
SEC: Tennessee
Big 12: West Virginia, TCU
Big Ten: Indiana
Pac-12: USC
Others: UCF, Buffalo, Ohio, Butler, Miami (OH)

If there are no "bid stealers" in conferences like the SEC, Pac-12, MAC, WCC, MVC, Summit or (god forbid) AAC, then if my math is right there will be 5 final at-large bids that will almost certainly come from this group of 11 teams. (Of course, every "bid theft" will cause that number to shrink.)

(If someone other than Rice wins C-USA, Rice becomes a "possible" team, but frankly I wouldn't like their chances.)
 
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bballnut90

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#14
Why don't you want Holly to come back? Are you a TENN fan?
I am. I'd venture a guess that 80% or more of the fan base wants her out. Aside from my personal biases, she's just bad for womens basketball at this point with how much talent she accumulates and throws away. Her/Aston/McCallie shouldnt be at P5 schools.
 

vowelguy

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#15
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Iowa is now a #2 seed
Lady Vols 11 seed playing Arizona St and possibly NC State. IMO favorable match ups for them.
So Carolina now a #4 seed

Wondering if Arkansas beats Texas A&M today in the SEC tournament, will they make the tournament.
Iowa was a 2 seed as of Monday night when the committee put them 8th. CC immediately followed suit.
 

bballnut90

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#16
Doing some bubble math here:

The following 29 teams are absolute locks for the NCAAs, even with a conference tournament loss:
ACC: ND, Louisville, NC State, Miami, Syracuse, Florida St
SEC: Miss St, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kentucky
Big 12: Baylor, Iowa St, Texas
Big Ten: Iowa, Maryland, Rutgers
Pac-12: Oregon, Stanford, Oregon St, Arizona St, UCLA
Others: UConn, Marquette, Gonzaga, Drake, S. Dakota, S. Dakota St, Central Michigan

The following 9 teams are highly probable at-large teams (would be very hard to justify leaving them out):
ACC: Clemson, North Carolina
SEC: Auburn
Big 12: Kansas St
Big Ten: Michigan, Michigan St
Pac-12: Cal
Others: DePaul, BYU

The following 11 teams I would classify as possible at-large teams (assuming a conference tournament loss):
ACC: Virginia Tech
SEC: Tennessee
Big 12: West Virginia, TCU
Big Ten: Indiana
Pac-12: USC
Others: UCF, Buffalo, Ohio, Butler, Miami (OH)

If there are no "bid stealers" in conferences like the SEC, Pac-12, MAC, WCC, MVC, Summit or (god forbid) AAC, then if my math is right there will be 5 final at-large bids that will almost certainly come from this group of 11 teams. (Of course, every "bid theft" will cause that number to shrink.)

(If someone other than Rice wins C-USA, Rice becomes a "possible" team, but frankly I wouldn't like their chances.)
Great stuff Plebe. You know your stuff inside and out. Thanks for keeping so many of us in the loop all year long.
 
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#17
I don’t know. Taking down two ranked teams back to back in March, when TN has but one victory all season long over a ranked team (TX in Dec) makes a pretty strong case for the Razorbacks.

Sometimes I wonder if Creme is on TN’s payroll.
Especially when that ranked team is terrible. If Texas played in any other conference they wouldn't be ranked.
 

vowelguy

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#18
I don’t know. Taking down two ranked teams back to back in March, when TN has but one victory all season long over a ranked team (TX in Dec) makes a pretty strong case for the Razorbacks.

Sometimes I wonder if Creme is on TN’s payroll.
Vs RPI50:

Tenn 4-8
Ark 1-9

Vs rest:
Tenn 15-4
Ark 18-4
 

oldude

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#19
FWIW:

"Arkansas: The Razorbacks put up 95 points on South Carolina to become the first double-digit seed since 1993 to advance to the semifinals of the SEC tournament. Arkansas isn't going to be an at-large team, but its NCAA tournament hopes are still alive as a possible automatic qualifier, and sophomore Chelsea Dungee is becoming a household name in Fayetteville."
Women's bracketology winners and losers for Friday

I don’t know. Taking down two ranked teams back to back, when TN hasn’t beaten a ranked team all season, makes a pretty strong case for Ark over the LV’s.
Vs RPI50:

Tenn 4-8
Ark 1-9

Vs rest:
Tenn 15-4
Ark 18-4
Yea I get it. But if it was just about RPI, they wouldn't need a selection committee. There is the whole "eye-test" thing and the intangible of who's playing well at the end of the season. Right now the LV's fail on both counts.
 

TheFarmFan

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#20
How can Arkansas beat two ranked teams and yet be 1-9 vs. RPI50? I think the only ranked team they beat was South Carolina. And seriously, if you look at their schedule and performance over the season, you just can't credibly argue they deserve a bid more than Tennessee. Their two good wins all season were at Tennessee and yesterday:

Arkansas:
1552167264103.png
 
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TheFarmFan

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#21
Tennessee:

1552167210325.png


...much as I am loathe to say that, because I love Dungee and Neighbors, and, well, don't love anything about the Lady Vols these days.
 
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#22
I don’t know. Taking down two ranked teams back to back, when TN hasn’t beaten a ranked team all season, makes a pretty strong case for Ark over the LV’s.
But the committee doesn’t think in terms of “ranked teams,” a term that usually refers to the polls, which are irrelevant. The committee will see that TN beat Mizzou, a probable 5 or 6 seed, as well as Texas, a probable 7 seed. And that both of those wins came on the road to boot. They’ll also see that TN has a win over Clemson and a season sweep of Auburn, both of which are almost certainly in the tournament.

Even with wins over SC and possibly A&M, those wins would be backed by virtually nothing else except a win over TN. Which just won’t be enough to compensate for the bad losses that Arkansas also has (including to Pitt). Forget about Tennessee—there would be at least 6 other bubble teams standing in line still ahead of Arkansas. Their resume might be more comparable to LSU’s, not enough for a bid in a 64-team tournament.
 
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#24
I don’t know. Taking down two ranked teams back to back, when TN hasn’t beaten a ranked team all season, makes a pretty strong case for Ark over the LV’s.

Yea I get it. But if it was just about RPI, they wouldn't need a selection committee. There is the whole "eye-test" thing and the intangible of who's playing well at the end of the season. Right now the LV's fail on both counts.
We see that teams are judged by strength of schedule, RPIwins and "eye test" of the team. How about the strength of coaching and the "eye test of the coaching.?
No contest between ARK vs TN here- ARK is much more deserving
 
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#25
Does anyone know how the selection committee can release the brackets on Monday before the AAC and Big 12 championship games have been played? Don't they have to wait to see who gets the auto bids?
 

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