Mark is a very good guy and a friend.
This is just his orange-tinted view of things - experience has made our national flag-blue tinted worldview much more cynical.
I haven't read Thucydides but I have read Sun Tzu. When you are strong, you must appear weak. And when you are weak, you must appear strong.
On second thought, that * don't work, at least for the BE. Everybody knows we're a glorified CUSA, and then only as long as UConn and Cincy are still in the league. However the Art of War might work for the ACC, if they can maintain the appearance that UNC and UVA are super reluctant to leave they might survive. Then it comes down to whether the BXII can make a play for FSU, or if the SEC decides to add NCState and/or VT. If they hang onto UVA and UNC it could make the odds of any other team leaving decrease. Maybe.
Sun Tzu said, know your enemy as you know yourself, and you shall never be defeated. That was the secret to Tranghese and Marinatto's success as least.
For your example. The best way for the ACC to survive is to make their schools seem as unappealing as possible, so that nobody would dream of poaching them.
The problem is that the ACC has no unity of effort. When all of your battalions stop being focused on the collective goal, then you will be taken apart in detail.
Hmmm no they own most but don't own every bit of content. The ACC Network won't be a huge moneymaker but it will still make money. They are looking at a pay per view subscription format. Even hooking up with the SEC...it is still in flux. The ACC's Ace is the belief that ESPN doesn't want the ACC to blowup...they don't want teams going to conferences less than 100% WWL.The ACC Network is a non-starter. Still-born. And every ounce of ACC content is already sold, so they ain't getting another $10M from any source - ESPN will be a partner in the imminent SEC Network and they're not going to throw money down a rathole in those same markets with an ACC Network that really no one wants.
The money the ACC has now is the money they will have in 2020 and beyond - the Big Ten and SEC will swamp them in a couple of years and the gap will expand yearly.
That is the reality of it.
Hmmm no they don't own every bit of content. The ACC Network won't be a huge moneymaker but it will still make money. They are looking at a pay per view subscription format.
The ACC is very unified in its effort to get more money out of ESPN, and I think they will be successful, even if it is just a few million per team. The ACC is going to be fine, and all the schools that left the Big East are going to be lapping us.
The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. It is over.
Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 are all sold until the mid-2020s.
And there is no Tier 4. ESPN owns all football and basketball, lock, stock and barrel - there is nothing left to the member institutions there. They have first selection rights to every single sport an ACC team plays - and you simply cannot put together anything with the remainder.
They have a look-in in five years, but that won't get them a network, not with the SEC Network lapping the region in two years. (Pay per view...come on. That's not going to make a dime for anyone.) The ACC is a small market league and where they're in larger markets, they're not influential - there's a reason ESPN isn't eager to build a network for their pet.
They're going to be at that $17-18M figure for a long time.
LOL...I know...but hear me out. One reason for playing so many games in the Dome was that hoops had to generate alot of $$$ since the BE contract sucked. With a tripling of conference $$$ he might venture out and play a couple old chums. It is in Cuse's self interest to show the flag in NYC, Philly and DC and yes even in CT.Calling a spade a spade, Jim Boeheim is not exactly Braveheart when it comes to scheduling.
He might play SJU at MSG, but he's not going on the road to play Nova, UConn or Gtown - it's not in his DNA. He won't even want those schools at home.
And I think it might make sense for SU to play Georgetown - lots of SU grads there - but JB really, really doesn't like that sort of thing. I don't see him doing it unless you folks point a gun at his head.
One reason for playing so many games in the Dome was that hoops had to generate alot of $ since the BE contract sucked.
The ACC Network is a non-starter. Still-born. And every ounce of ACC content is already sold, so they ain't getting another $10M from any source - ESPN will be a partner in the imminent SEC Network and they're not going to throw money down a rathole in those same markets with an ACC Network that really no one wants.
The money the ACC has now is the money they will have in 2020 and beyond - the Big Ten and SEC will swamp them in a couple of years and the gap will expand yearly.
That is the reality of it.
Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 are all sold until the mid-2020s.
And there is no Tier 4.
Jim would just whine about the type of gun used.
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The idea that ESPN is going to toss out sacks of cash because of a perceived threat at dissolution is insane. If it dissolves...then ESPN will just throw the money at whatever higher-revenue, far more interesting conference is the result of it. Maybe bank the savings for a re-up with NASCAR. Or the Big Ten contract that opens up soon. Or the Thursday night NFL package.
For the last 20 years, expenditures at state schools have risen slowly, well below inflation,
The renegotiation brought the media fees to around $17M. The idea that Notre Dame joining added $2-2.5M was inaccurate.
An alliance with another conference will not add any media revenue because the media rights are already sold! Whether someone hosts Texas or East Paduka State, the rights to that game already belong to ESPN. Hosting a home game against Notre Dame will not add any media revenue because - raise your hand if you know the answer - the media rights are already sold.
Might help with ticket sales if you're playing OU instead of URI, but honestly, no one in the Big 12 or ACC is going to add another hard game to their schedule - they might replace one hard game with another, but everyone will make sure they're bowl-eligible with the appropriate number of patsies.
An alliance really means that OU and Texas will play footsie with FSU, Clemson and VaTech - it's about making the big fish happy so they're less tempted to expand. The medium and small fish will be unaffected.
This is not hard - the ACC's media rights are fixed. They don't have anything left to sell. They're making decent money, but it also makes them vulnerable long-term - there is a reason why Maryland left.
And I think it might make sense for SU to play Georgetown - lots of SU grads there - but JB really, really doesn't like that sort of thing. I don't see him doing it unless you folks point a gun at his head.